Gold Market Analysis: Growth Prospects Next WeekGold price regains positive traction and remains within the striking distance of a one-month top. Expectations that the Federal Reserve is down with its rate-hiking cycle underpin the XAU/USD. A positive risk tone might hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets and cap any further gains.
On the hourly time frame, the ascending channel resistance was previously broken, all expectations are for further growth, I told you there is a possibility of a false breakout. On Friday, after the release of the non-agricultural employment data and the unemployment rate, the market fluctuated in two directions, and the price returned to the boundary of the ascending channel (false breakthrough), and the closing was still an alternative to the ascending channel (false breakthrough). ). The opening price of the channel. Friday meeting. The market is weak.
As the DXY US dollar index is testing strong resistance around 104.5, a break of this area will lead the price towards 105.5, which will have a negative impact on the formation of gold prices.
SIGNALS:
BUY GOLD zone 1934-1936
SL 1930
TP 1940,1950
Tradingplans
Gold price today August 31: Gold reached a 3-week peakGold prices are rising and reaching a 3-week high of 1935 USD/ounce after a series of lower-than-expected US economic data. ADP's national employment report for August only increased by 177,000 jobs, compared with expectations for an increase of 200,000 jobs.
According to experts, the US stock market is trending up. The sentiment of overseas traders and investors has improved, as China continues to implement measures to stimulate the economy, which are positive factors for gold prices.
Short trading plan:
Sell Gold 1953-1955 SL 1960
Plan nonfarm
Buy Gold 1933-1935 SL 1928
Sell gold 1965-1967 SL 1973
GOLD - Quickly catch the rebound of goldThis morning's gold price continued to increase by 16.7 USD compared to yesterday's closing level to 1,936.5 USD/ounce, the gold price reached its highest level in three weeks.
The US Employment Turnover (JOLTS) report and consumer confidence index were much lower than expected, spurring fresh buying demand for the precious metal.
Gold prices continue to maintain a solid recovery but there is still a potential risk that it will be lower in the near future because this week there is still a lot of economic news that strongly affects Gold prices.
TVS MOTOR ASCENDING WEDGE BREAKOUT TRADE - BUY
TVS Motors have formed an ascending wedge pattern on the daily timeframe with 2 contact points above and 3 contact points below
Yesterday it has broken out of the pattern with gap-up which acts as a very strong confirmation of the success of the trade
Although no volume surge is present but RSI is present in OVERBOUGHT zone indicating that the momentum is very strong for the stock right now which in turn is a boon for the stock which would give the push for the stock to rise
TP is set as the width of the chart pattern at the place of the first contact point
7 Important Tips for Risk Management Hey everyone!
While trading and investing offer the opportunity for profit, there is always the potential for loss.
Here are a couple of time-tested tips to help you in understanding and managing your risk better.
📝 Develop a Trading Plan
─ Many traders jump into the market without a thorough understanding of how it works and what it takes to be successful.
─ You should have a detailed trading plan in place prior to engaging in any trades.
─ Your plan should include essential components such as the entry point, a strategically defined stop-loss level to mitigate potential losses, and target levels to define your anticipated profit points.
─ Having a well-structured plan equips you with a roadmap during stressful trading situations and ensures that your trades are consistently aligned with your risk tolerance threshold.
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🧘♂️ Understand your Risk Tolerance
─ Risk is subjective. Different traders have different personalities and systems, hence a different risk tolerance.
─ Start with self-reflection: Begin by reflecting on your own attitudes, beliefs, and emotions towards risk. Consider how comfortable you are with the possibility of losing money, how patient you are with market fluctuations, and how much stress or anxiety you can handle when investments don't go as planned. Understanding your own psychological and emotional response to risk is crucial in determining your risk tolerance.
─ Consider your financial situation: Take into account your current financial situation, including your income, savings, debts, and expenses. A thorough understanding of your financial resources and obligations will help you gauge the amount of risk you can afford to take.
─ There is no “One-size-fits-all” approach . Find out what suits your needs based on your account size, age, long-term plan, and other key variables that are specifically unique to your circumstances. Then, implement it accordingly.
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📚 Follow your Trading System
─ Develop a clear and comprehensive trading system that outlines your approach, rules, and criteria for entering and exiting trades.
─ A well-designed system provides structure and discipline, helping you avoid impulsive decisions driven by emotions or short-term market fluctuations.
─ A trading system is essential because it requires you to think deeply about your approach to markets before you begin risking real money.
─ Backtest and research your system: Validate the effectiveness of your trading system by backtesting it against historical market data. This allows you to assess its performance and identify any potential flaws or areas for improvement. Additionally, research and analyze your system under various market conditions to understand its adaptability and resilience.
─ Evaluate your system's performance in different scenarios: Simulate your system's performance in different market environments, including bear markets or periods of increased volatility. By assessing how your system would fare in adverse conditions, you can gauge its robustness and make necessary adjustments to enhance its overall effectiveness.
─ Some traders keep hopping strategies after a series of losses. This usually leads to more losses and is unproductive in the long term.
─ Stick to your system with a verifiable edge: If your trading system has been thoroughly tested, backtested, and proven to have an edge, have confidence in it and adhere to its rules consistently. Consistently following a system that has demonstrated positive expectancy over time increases your chances of generating consistent profits in the long run.
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🚨 Use a Stop-Loss
─ A stop-loss order is an order that is placed at a predetermined price level and can help in limiting your losses if the trade goes against you.
─ In general, this predetermined price level is the level at which your trade idea gets invalidated.
─ A stop loss helps in protecting against emotional decision-making and allows you to maintain discipline in your trading system. Implementing a stop-loss order ensures that you have predefined risk parameters, allowing you to quantify and control your downside risk.
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✂️ Manage your Position Size
─ Effectively managing your position size is crucial in mitigating risk and maximizing potential returns.
─ By carefully determining the appropriate position size, you can avoid excessive exposure in any single trade.
─ Trading is a game of probabilities. Hence, a trader should never put all his eggs in one basket and if he does, then he should be well aware of it.
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❌ Don't Overtrade or Revenge Trade
─ Resist the temptation to overtrade or engage in revenge trading, even in the face of losses.
Attempting to recover losses through higher-risk trades is never a good idea and can lead to even bigger losses.
─ It's easy to feel strong emotions while trading. However, making decisions based on emotions rather than rational analysis can be a recipe for disaster.
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📔 Maintain a Trading Journal
─ A trading journal can help you in identifying the shortcomings in your trading.
─ By documenting your trades, you gain valuable insights into your strengths and weaknesses as a trader. Regularly reviewing and evaluating your journal allows you to identify patterns, mistakes, and areas for improvement.
─ This self-reflection enables you to fine-tune your strategies, refine your risk management techniques, and enhance your overall trading approach.
─ Moreover, a trading journal helps instil discipline and accountability by keeping a record of your trading actions and outcomes. It serves as a reference point for future analysis and learning, enabling you to continuously evolve as a trader.
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Thanks for reading! I hope you enjoyed this post. Please feel free to write any additional tips or pieces of advice in the comments section below!
Trade safe. Be smart. I’ll see you in the next one. Cheers!
Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick)
Respect the SL? Check why it is important to respect the SL?Why We need to respect Stoploss?
#tradingclasses #tradigstrategy #tradingideas #tradingcourses.
With Technical analysis , we can predict the next movement of the market 80-90% most of the time, and 10-20% of the time market reverses. we need to respect that 10-20% failure to sustain in the stock market career. Market is always superior. . If we dont respect the SL, this will lead to washout of our capital and more than that it will affect our psycology and trading journey.
with this information, Hope u traders take trade with predefined SL to find success in trading journey.
cheer us with thumsup;
thank u n Happy Trading
NIFTY INTRADAY SET-UPMaybe tomorrow nifty trading between this range 17900 to 17600.
highest call oi 18000 ,It act as a major resistance .
Hghest put oi 17500,It act as a major support
17700 is a crucial range ,It holds both put and call OI .
PCR,0.6 VOLUME PCR,0.9 .Maybe tomorrow we expect slightly Sideways BEARISH TREND.
Tomorrow RBI meeting will be held at 10 AM .
The Top 3 Elements found in all good trading plansHey everyone! 👋
This month, we have been theming our posts around the concept of building a solid trading plan. Our first post asked you to think about the kinds of factors that can predict long-term success. Our second post looked at why trading plans are so important. Both of these posts you can find linked at the end 👇
Having talked about the *what* and the *why*, it’s time to talk about the *how*.
Today we will be taking a look at the top 3 elements found in all good trading plans!
1️⃣ Element 1: Every good trading plan knows why it wins.
In trading, there are two variables that matter: Bat Rate, and Win / Loss.
► Bat Rate describes what percentage of the time a trade ends up as a win. A trader with a 90% bat rate wins 9 out of every 10 trades.
► Win / Loss describes how big the average win is, relative to the average loss. A trader with a 0.5 Win / Loss takes losses twice the size of his wins.
If you multiply these numbers together, you will get an “Expected Value”.
For example, a trader with a Bat Rate of 50% (wins half of the time) and a Win / Loss of 1 (Losses the same size as wins) is a perfectly “Breakeven” trader.
In order to make money in the long term, all you need to do is make the multiplication of these values be a positive value. The breakeven trader above only needs to win 51% of trades to begin making money, if his W/L remains constant.
☝🏽To get these numbers into positive “expected value” territory, every good trading plan needs to devise a way to systematically find trading opportunities that it thinks have an edge. The inputs of this system are completely up to the trader, but they are typically rooted in repeating price patterns, fundamental observations, macro trends, or other patterns and cycles. Backtesting can be useful here for getting a general idea of whether or not an idea for a trading strategy has borne out to be true over time.
In short, no matter what it looks like, good trading plans identify their edge before risking capital. Why start a business without a business plan?
2️⃣ Element 2: Every good trading plan takes into account the emotional character of the trader.
This is the hardest element to quantify, but also arguably one of the most important pieces of a good written trading plan - the ability to work around a trader’s individual strengths and weaknesses. This is less important for banks and hedge funds, as decisions are typically made with oversight, but for retail traders, there is no-one around to temper your personal flaws.
You can do whatever you want! - but it’s a double edged sword of responsibility that your trading plan needs to prepare you for.
In short, you can best get an idea of where you are emotionally weakest by looking at your trading history. Nobody can do this for you, so it requires quite a bit of self-awareness. However, the rewards of removing emotional risk from a trading plan make it worth the effort.
😱 All trading is based on fear. You need to understand which fear is stronger - the fear of missing out, or the fear of losing capital. Figure out which is stronger, and plan accordingly.
Just because you understand a certain strategy and other people make money trading it, doesn’t mean that you will be able to. Executing with 100% consistency at 30% efficiency is more important than finding a strategy with 100% efficiency that you can only trade with 10% consistency. Make life easy on yourself!
3️⃣ Element 3: Every good trading plan outlines risk.
Whether you have one thousand dollars or one billion dollars, ignoring risk is a sure way to experience massively increased monetary and emotional volatility , which can have a huge negative impact on long term profitability. Here are a few simple-to-implement mechanisms that Banks, Hedge Funds, and Prop Firms use to reduce risk significantly - good trading plans don’t skip these.
💵 Total Account Stop
Exactly what it sounds like: once you lose a certain percentage of your capital, you stop trading, liquidate your positions, and assess what went wrong. Only once you’re satisfied that you have fixed the issue are you allowed to re-enter the market. In the industry, this number is commonly 10%.
💵 Per Theme Risk
This ensures that you aren’t too concentrated on a single “bet”, even if the bet is spread across multiple instruments. For example, if you own multiple companies in the same sector, their performance will likely be correlated to some degree even if they have different products or services. Adding a hard cap to this type of risk can massively reduce risky or over concentrated allocations.
💵 Per Position Risk
Many successful Professional Traders and Hedge Funds use the concept of “Free Capital” in order to manage risk. “Free Capital” is the amount of money in hard dollars that makes up the buffer between an account’s current equity, and the total account stop number.
For example, If a currency trader at a bank has a 10% total account stop out, and runs a $10,000,000 currency book, then he can really only “lose” $1,000,000 before his bosses pull him aside to have a talk. His “Free Capital” is $1,000,000. He will then size his positions to where he only risks 1-5% of his Free Capital per trade. This way, he has room to be wrong a minimum of 20 times in a row before any negative consequences come his way. Implementing a “free capital” risk limit per position ensures that you have a TON of room for error.
Yes, this typically prevents you from doubling your account overnight, but again, that isn’t the goal. Long term profitability is.
Some people call this per position risk “one R” (one risk unit).
☝🏽Whatever it looks like, including a plan for managing your risk is essential for *actually* managing your risk. If these plans aren’t written out and acted upon, they’re also a lot easier to ignore.
🙏🏽 Thanks for reading! Hope this was helpful!
- TradingView Team ❤️❤️
Make sure you follow us on Instagram and YouTube for more awesome content! 💘
Expecting a Bullish Move in TATACOFFEEAs per the 2 Hour Chart of TATACOFFEE, we can witness a Formation of “Hammer” on the chart. Therefore, we are expecting a bullish momentum in TATACOFFEE in the upcoming trading sessions. Wherein it is being expected to face a resistance initially at around the levels of 214.70, 216.75, and 220.20. Whereas, on the other hand, on the downside levels, the stock may face a support at the level of 209.85, on closing basis. Closing Price (as on 28.12.21) : 2112.55
Disclaimer: No financial information whatsoever published here, should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, or as advice to do so in any way whatsoever. All matter published here is purely for Educational and Information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for making investment decisions. Viewers must consult their personal financial advisor before making any actual investment decisions, based on information published here. Any Investor or Trader taking decisions based on any information published here, does so entirely at its own risk. Investors and Traders should bear in mind that any investment in Stock Market is subject to unpredictable market-related risks.
Nifty Trading Plan - 15th July Summary
► HTF is again is crucial demand zone. DTF has a "Bullish Doji" candle, which infers "Positive" bias" but, we may see loss of momentum hence, sellers/buyers will fight it out.
► Pivot analysis infers Trading Range DAY bias.
► Support levels 15793/15735
► Resistance levels 15895/15850
► We are in sellers zone, expect it to be closely fought area. Unless, market opens gap up and takes support and PDH.
► Keep your positions size under control. Since, we may see whipsaws and if you lose on trading range days, u end up lose big profits made on TRENDING days.
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Step 1 - Strategies to be deployed -
l Open drive .
l PPT.
l CPRRVL
Step 2 - Trading Plan
1. Any bullish PA above 15835 is stop of 15815 and target of 15872.
2. Any bullish PA above 15792 is stop of 15773 and target of 15830.
3. Aggressive long above 15903 is stop of 15882 and target of 15944.
4. Any bearish PA below 15816 is stop of 15835 and target of 15788.
5. Aggressive short below 15774 is short with stop of 15792 and target of 15750.
This information is for education purpose only. So, please consult your financial advisor for any investment/trading advise.
Bonne chance!!
@Sacredmonkey