CANFINHOME - The Ascending Triangle PatternCan Fin Homes Ltd has recently exhibited a notable range-bound movement, forming an ascending triangle pattern that highlights its price consolidation phase. The stock oscillated between key price levels, with a significant high of 938 on July 1st and a low of 680 on June 4th, before peaking at 909.80 on July 25th. This range-bound behavior reflects a period of accumulation and steady buying pressure, as the price repeatedly tests the horizontal resistance while respecting the upward-sloping support line. This consolidation phase is crucial as it sets the stage for a potential breakout, indicating that the stock is gearing up for a significant directional move. The pattern suggests that investors are increasingly optimistic, with the price confined within these key levels, paving the way for future volatility and trading opportunities. In this analysis, we will explore three key trading strategies for CANFINHOME based on the recent ascending triangle pattern. First, we will examine the Breakout Strategy, which capitalizes on the price movement once it surpasses key resistance levels. Next, we will discuss the Pullback Strategy, focusing on entering trades during price retracements to the breakout level. Finally, we will consider the Breakdown Strategy, which prepares for a potential bearish reversal if the price falls below critical support levels. Each strategy will be detailed with entry points, stop losses, and targets to help you make informed trading decisions.
In this analysis, we will explore three key trading strategies for CANFINHOME based on the recent ascending triangle pattern. First, we will examine the Breakout Strategy, which capitalizes on the price movement once it surpasses key resistance levels. Next, we will discuss the Pullback Strategy, focusing on entering trades during price retracements to the breakout level. Finally, we will consider the Breakdown Strategy, which prepares for a potential bearish reversal if the price falls below critical support levels. Each strategy will be detailed with entry points, stop losses, and targets to help you make informed trading decisions.
Breakout Strategy:
Entry Point: For an optimal entry, consider buying above 914 as an early signal or above 938 for a regular entry. This indicates a confirmed breakout from the ascending triangle pattern, signaling strong bullish momentum.
Stop Loss: Place your stop loss just below the support level of 838. This precautionary measure helps safeguard against potential reversals or false breakouts.
Target: Set your price target around 1196. This level is calculated by adding the vertical height of the triangle to the breakout point, reflecting the expected upward movement based on the pattern.
Rationale: Entering at 914 or 938 allows you to capitalize on the upward potential following the breakout. With a stop loss at 838, you manage risk effectively. The target of 1196 aligns with the pattern’s projection, maximizing your profit potential.
Pullback Strategy:
Entry Point: Look for a buying opportunity during a pullback to the breakout level around 914 or the support level of 903.85. This approach leverages a temporary price retracement to secure a more advantageous entry.
Stop Loss: Position the stop loss below the support level of 838 to mitigate risk in case the pullback evolves into a deeper correction.
Target: Maintain the target at approximately 1196, consistent with the breakout strategy.
Rationale: The pullback strategy offers a chance to enter at a better price while confirming the validity of the breakout. The stop loss below 838 provides protection against significant losses, and the target of 1196 remains aligned with the anticipated price movement.
Breakdown Strategy:
Entry Point: If the price drops below the key support level of 838, consider this a breakdown of the ascending triangle pattern. This shift indicates a bearish reversal and a potential shift in market sentiment.
Stop Loss: Set the stop loss above the support level of 838 to prevent substantial losses if the breakdown proves to be a false signal.
Target: For a breakdown scenario, the target will need to be adjusted based on new technical analysis of lower support levels. Immediate downside targets should be reevaluated as the situation unfolds.
Rationale: The breakdown strategy addresses the possibility of a bearish reversal when the support level is breached. The stop loss above 838 helps limit potential losses, while the target will depend on further analysis of the emerging support levels.
Conclusion :
The ascending triangle pattern for Can Fin Homes Ltd indicates a bullish outlook with a potential price target of 1196 if the breakout is confirmed. The breakout strategy aims to capture the upward trend, while the pullback strategy provides an opportunity to enter during a retracement. Conversely, the breakdown strategy prepares for a potential bearish scenario if the support level is breached. Each strategy includes specific entry points, stop losses, and targets, offering a comprehensive approach to trading based on the pattern’s analysis.
Disclaimer :
The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Trading and investing in the stock market involve risk, and you should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and the publisher are not responsible for any losses or damages that may occur as a result of using the information provided in this article. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions.
*** Hint*** Use a buffer at entry to avoid false breakout
Tradingstrategies
Britannia analysisBritannia, after an untiring rally since the beginning of this month, now comes to a halt for another correction.
Entry-1 is on a retest of 5873-75 range as resistance with Stop above this range.
The second entry is below 5801-5800 range, if the price fails to retrace and continues to fall.
Bearish invalidation above resistance range till 5975 as t1 upside level.
DLF Chart set up and my trading strategyDLF
We are looking at daily charts of DLF
- the stock looks like trading in down trend channel since Apr 2024
- the stock is trading below both 21 day and 63 day EMA
- 21 day EMA is below 63 day EMA
- channel resistance around 840
Chart structure is looking weak
- likely support zone around 200 day EMA which is currently around 769
Given the set up and my view, my trading strategy
Sell DLF 29 Aug 2024 850 Call option currently around 19.5
Review point if DLF sustains above 842 on closing basis
In built protection for a rise up to 869.5 till 29 August 2024 (giving ample scope to adjust / exit with less damage in case view is wrong)
Max profit potential (Rs 16087) on Margin (Rs 126800 approx) : 12.5% approximately till Aug 2024 expiry
The strategy covers known risk and provides some cushion above those levels to some extent and provides decent ROI potential.
Do not follow me blindly.
Understand the implication of the strategy and learn to manage your risk
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
ITC's Key Support & Resistance: Trade Smartly!Current Scenario:
• ITC is currently trading at ₹429.05, showing signs of consolidation.
• The stock has tested the support level twice (T1 and T2), indicating strong support around ₹402.90.
Key Levels:
• Entry Point: ₹416.25
• Stop Loss: ₹402.90
• Target Levels:
• Target 01: ₹437.90
• Target 02: ₹444.70
Analysis:
• The stock is forming a pattern where it respects the support level, which could be a good opportunity for a bullish entry.
• The previous low and support touches suggest that buyers step in around these levels, providing a safety net for long positions.
Trading Strategy:
• Bullish Scenario: Enter at ₹416.25 with a stop loss at ₹402.90. Look for the stock to move towards the first target of ₹437.90 and possibly extend to ₹444.70.
• Bearish Scenario: If the stock breaks below the stop loss level of ₹402.90, it might indicate further downside risk. In this case, it’s advisable to exit long positions to prevent losses.
Conclusion:
• ITC is showing a well-defined support and resistance structure, offering clear entry and exit points.
• Traders can leverage these key levels to strategize their trades effectively, minimizing risk while maximizing potential gains.
Keywords:
• ITC Stock
• Technical Analysis
• Support and Resistance
• Trading Strategy
• Entry Point
• Stop Loss
• Target Levels
• Market Analysis
• Stock Trends
Tata Motors on the Verge: Key Resistance Levels
Current Scenario:
• Tata Motors is experiencing a consolidation phase just below its previous high.
• The stock has touched the resistance line twice (Touch 01 and Touch 02), indicating a strong resistance level around the previous high.
Key Levels:
• Entry Point: ₹1,029.00
• Stop Loss: ₹1,051.00
• Target Levels:
• Target 01: ₹991.95
• Target 02: ₹938.20
• Target 03: ₹904.00
Analysis:
• The stock is trading close to the resistance line, and a breakout above this level could signal a potential upward movement.
• Conversely, if the stock fails to break this resistance and moves downward, it might reach the indicated target levels.
Trading Strategy:
• Bullish Scenario: If Tata Motors breaks above the resistance and sustains, consider entering a long position at ₹1,029.00 with a stop loss at ₹1,051.00.
• Bearish Scenario: If the stock fails to break the resistance and shows signs of reversal, consider shorting with target levels at ₹991.95, ₹938.20, and ₹904.00.
Conclusion:
• Tata Motors is at a critical juncture with significant resistance levels in play.
• Traders should watch for a breakout or reversal at these levels to strategize their trades effectively.
Swing Trade Alert : HSCL BreakoutI'm excited to share a promising swing trade setup for Himadri Speciality Chemical Limited (HSCL).
The stock has given a strong breakout on the daily chart, backed by significant volume, pushing above the crucial resistance level of Rs 390.
The stock has made a run-away gap on daily chart. With the stock trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages and an RSI at 65, HSCL shows a bullish outlook.
The breakout volume indicates strong buying interest, making it a compelling swing trade candidate.
The stock can seen touching new levels on higher side in upcoming day. Keep this in radar.
𝐀𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐲
Himadri Speciality Chemical Ltd is a global speciality chemical conglomerate
Specializes in producing speciality carbon black, coal tar pitch, refined naphthalene, new energy materials, SNF, speciality oils, power, etc
Serving industries such as lithium-ion batteries, paints, plastics, tires, aluminium, graphite electrodes, agrochemicals, defence and construction chemicals.
Happy trading! 📈
Disclaimer: Chart shared is for educational purpose and does not include any investment or trading advice
TITAN - Triple Top Chart PatternTitan has formed a bearish chart pattern called Triple Top.
Triple top is a bearish chart pattern which is formed in an uptrend where three tops are lying on a flat horizontal resistance line and pattern will activate only when closing below the neckline or support. Pattern will activate only below the closing 3475 marks.
Triple top pattern is one the rarest chart pattern with high accuracy.
Thank You
Arvind Share Academy
LICI - Ready to RunThe stock is trading above its long term and short term moving averages.
The stock has retested its previous all time level twice and now gave breakout on daily chart of Rs 1000 resistance level. The stock seems to reach a target of 1150 in coming days.
Disclaimer: The stock shared is for educational purpose and does not have any buy or sell recommendation.
Wondering where the Dollar is headed next? He're is a hint. Analysis
A five wave decline from 107.34, the high on Oct 03, 2023 to 100.62, the low on Dec 28, 2023.
In Elliott terms, this impulse structure tells us that the movement at the next larger degree of trend is also downwards. Within this impulsive structure, wave (i) is a Leading Diagonal, wave (ii) is a Flat which neatly predicts a Zigzag wave (iv) by guideline of Alternation. Both waves (iii) and (v) are extensions. The impulsive decline holds well within the parallel trend channel as is often expected.
A five wave move is always followed by a three wave corrective pullback or variation thereof, irregardless of degree; in this case, a rally wave ((ii)).
To where? The Elliott wave guideline on the depth of corrective waves suggests that price action should ideally end within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree.
Second, the ensuing correction, wave (ii) is unfolding as a sharp Double Zigzag correction labelled (w)-(x)-(y) with waves (w) and (x) completed, wave (y) in progress.
In ratio relationships, sharp corrections tend more frequently to retrace 61.8% of the previous wave particularly when they occur as wave (ii) of an Impulse or wave (b) in a larger Zigzag.
Also, the actionary waves in a Double Zigzag correction namely waves (w) and (y) are often related by equality or Fibonacci (0.618) in time or amplitude.
wave (y) = 0.618 X (w) at 104.87; this level falls neatly within the previous guidelines.
Thus, the cluster of evidence suggest the rally is nearing its end and a reversal is onset; a third wave.
Trade Plan
1) Conservative Approach
Entry: Short at 104.879; the 0.618 retracement.
Protective Stop: 107.34; in an Impulse wave (ii) CAN NEVER retrace more than 100% of wave (i).
Target: 10.87 decline; in an impulse the third wave commonly travels 1.618 times the loss of
the first, as in:
wave ((i)) = -6.72 (100.62-107.34),
wave ((iii))= 1.618 X (-6.72) equals (-10.87)
Risk-Reward: 1:3
2) Aggressive Approach
Requires price action to break below a recent swing low; wave b of a Zigzag, that will virtually suggest the rally has ended and a reversal was underway.
Entry: Break below 103.89
Protective Stop: Recent swing high
Targets: Below 100.62
Risk-Reward: Greater than 1:3
NOTE: Stay tuned to get follow-up adjustments to stops as we monitor the move through completion.
Amazing swing trading idea for 5 April MarketsI make educational content videos for swing / positional trading
AUD/USD: A Third Wave "...Wonders to Behold..."Prices advanced in five waves from 0.6477 to 0.6667. This wave pattern is significant because impulse waves identify the direction of the larger trend. Thus, the five-wave advance in AUDUSD implies further buying to come that would push prices above 0.6667 as wave (iii).
The subsequent decline that is developing in three waves supports this analysis. Counter trend price action typically consists of three waves, so we expect another move up. Moreover, the three-wave decline travels to 0.6550 to retrace 61.8% of the previous impulsive advance. 61.8% is a common retracement for corrective waves especially when they occur as wave 2 of an impulse or wave B of a zigzag correction.
Also nearby is 0.6558, the price level at which wave c equaled wave a, which is a common Fibonacci relationship between wave C and A of zigzag correction.
Also adjacent is 0.6560, the end of the fourth wave of one lesser degree. As a guideline, corrections tend to end upon reaching the end of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree.
Besides, the correction is unfolding as a Zigzag A-B-C with a triangle characteristic in the b wave position as is common. Also, the correction neatly adheres to the parallel channel with wave c hugging the lower boundary of the channel.
These cluster of evidence suggests that prices are approaching an important juncture and a reversal to the upside is on the horizon. If so, then a break above 0.6629 would virtually indicate the correction ended and the next significant move is to the upside.
Trading Plan
Entry : Buy at market.
Protective Stop : 0.6477; in an impulse wave 2 can NEVER retrace 100% of wave 1.
Target : 307 pips i.e ((0.6667-0.6477) X 1.618)
In an impulse, the third wave commonly travels 1.618 times the length of the
first.
Risk-to-Reward : 1:3
Asian Paint - Rounding Bottom PatternAsian Paint is about to complete the formation of Rounding Bottom.
Rounding Bottom pattern will activate only after the breakout of the Neckline - 3040 level
Rounding bottom chart pattern is a bullish reversal pattern which is formed at prior intermediate support level and hold this level from 2021.
Long trade will initiate only after the neckline breakout.
Stop Loss would be the prior swing low before breakout.
First target would be the depth of the bottom pattern, Calculate depth and add the depth from the neckline level
Granules India - Breakout after 3-yearsThis stock is looking strong in weekly and daily charts. The company has given a strong breakout on daily chart of 428 resistance level. This resistance level is created in Dec 2020 i.e 3-year ago. Generally we have seen if a stock gives long term consolidation breakout, big upside moves can be expected from the stock. The stock is from pharma sector and pharma sector is also performing good. So I think this stock to give big returns in medium term.
Please note weekly breakout is yet to confirmed on the stock. Possible targets on the stock can be find using Fibonacci retrenchment tool
Disclaimer: The stock discussed is for educational purpose and does not have any buy or sell recommedations.
HINDCOPPER: 🔍 Technical Analysis Update for NSE:HINDCOPPER - Week Starting January 23, 2024
📈 Entry Point: Consider entering the trade if the price crosses ₹275.40.
🎯 Target: Aim for a first target at ₹289.45.
🛑 Stop Loss: Set your stop loss at ₹230.60 to manage risk.
💹 Indicators Summary:
Parabolic SAR: Buy signal initiated around ₹245.00.
EMA & MA Crossover: Bullish signal at ₹264.05.
MACD: Awaiting crossover; signal at 18.42, MACD at 14.69.
Stochastic RSI: Buy signal present; K at 14.90, D at 8.78.
%R: Neutral at 43, indicating potential upward movement.
Fisher Transform: Bullish signal at the lower band; Fisher value at 0.72.
🚦 Overall Outlook: The market indicators suggest a cautiously optimistic trend towards bullishness, with key signals aligning for a potential upward movement. Monitoring the MACD crossover and %R values will be crucial in the coming days.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
#HindustanCopper #TechnicalAnalysis #StockMarket #Investing #TradingStrategy #FinancialMarkets
🌟 Stay updated and invest wisely! 🌟
CEAT LTD - Fresh breakout on Daily and Weekly chartsEntire tyre manufacturing companies are in good position.
This tyre manufacturing company has given a strong breakout on daily and weekly chart. Volume near the breakout is also increasing which is good sign. The stock is in blue sky zone hence, possible targets in the chart can be calculated using Fibonacci retrenchment tool.
Disclaimer: Stock shared is for educational purpose and does not contains any buy or sell recommedations.
Anupam Rasayan - Inverse H&S Breakout on Weekly ChartChart patterns are the most loved trading strategy among traders. There are different kind of patterns traded in stock market. One of which is inverse head and shoulder - a trend reversal pattern. Upon formation of this pattern the stock trend get reversed. Generally if the stock is in consolidation phase then this pattern is seen.
Now here I have observed inverse head and shoulder pattern formation in one of the chemical manufacturing company in India named Anupam Rasayan India Ltd. On closely observing the chart, I found that the stock is in downtrend since May 2022 after making a high of 1234 and remain in downtrend till Oct 2023. Now the fresh uptrend in the stock is supported by inverted head and shoulder pattern which signifies that the stock can continue the uptrend in coming months.
The targets for this stock can be found by projecting the depth of head just after the breakout which comes around 1320. Also the stop loss for this trade can be put at the depth of right shoulder which is around 990.
Disclaimer: The stock shared is only for educational purpose and does not hold any buy or sell recommendations.
TV18 BROADCAST LTD - LONGThe stock is giving confirmation of its uptrend by breaking out level of 56. The next resistance om the chart is seen at around 80.
The Jan to Dec of Technical Analysis - 1 strategy per month1. January - The Value at Play
Before we start discussing the different technical chart patterns, we need to have some clarity on how buying and selling happens on stocks and options. Every trade has a buyer or seller. That means at a specific point in time, for a specific price there are 2 conflicting thoughts
Someone who thinks the price is too cheap
Someone who thinks the price is damn expensive
The guy who thinks the stock/option is cheap is ready to buy and the guy who thinks it is expensive and it is a good time to sell.
Just think, how is it that two people can have conflicting mindsets about the same instrument at the same time? I am 100% sure that both of them cannot be right, one of them is making a wrong decision. Over time - 5 minutes, 50 minutes, 5 hours, 50 hours, 5 days, 50 days, or 500 days - whatever the period be, that particular instrument will tick away from the quoted price - either move up or move down.
This leads to the important question - what is the fair value? If you have an internal price gauging mechanism - you can quickly calculate if the price quoted is below or above the fair value. Wow, that looks exciting - can you give me the shortcut to calculate the fair price?
Unfortunately, there is no holy grail that does it for you, over time you need to develop that tool or spreadsheet. Have you heard the saying, “Veterans are good stock pickers” - It is mainly because of their experience in the markets. They have developed the intuition to guess the fair value when they see the ticker tape without relying on a spreadsheet or calculator.
The first rule is “Never buy anything at a premium and never sell anything at a discount”. This rule does not guarantee that you will not lose money - but it is a filter that weeds out poor decision-making. The question arises - how do I calculate the fair price of a stock or options strike?
A good place to start would be to start reading “The Little Book of Valuation: How to Value a Company, Pick a Stock and Profit (Little Books. Big Profits) by Aswath Damodaran” - you can even finish the book in 2 straight hours. It gives some insights into valuation techniques.
Most valuation methods available in the markets are part of “Fundamental Analysis”, you might ask me - “What does that have to do with Technical Analysis?”. My answer is everything. Technical Analysis is the process of guessing the future price by looking at the historical data. But what the stock/option has to do with the price today is mostly due to fundamental reasons. A mix of fundamental + technical study is much better than pure fundamental or pure technical analysis.
These days lot of people have turned to options trading as a side gig to make some extra money. Someone would have told them, that it is easy to make money in options trading. The biggest mistake they make would be to short-sell a strike too cheap and buy a strike too pricey. Option premiums do not move in a linear pattern and are totally different from the valuation techniques used to gauge the underlying. If you are able to calculate the fair value of a particular strike with some level of accuracy - then you can avoid selling it cheap and buying it pricey. More often than not, not taking a trade would be the best trade there is. If something is way above your price level, choose not to buy. If way below, choose not to sell. Have faith that a better opportunity will come and gather the courage to skip the trade.
There are 2 option types - CALLS and PUTS. The option strikes above the current trading price are called CALLS and the strikes below the price are called PUTS. The premiums of these far-away strikes are not that easy to calculate or guess, mainly because the prices are derived by a few factors like price movements, time, level of uncertainty & the interest rates in the markets.
This makes options trading like a double-edged sword. You get it right - it will reward you more than you can imagine. You get it wrong - it will take away what you have and more. I think hard guessing the fair value of a particular strike of a stock or index is 10 times more complicated than assessing the intrinsic value of that index/stock. This means if you took 15mts to find out the fair value of say “PQR” stock, you might take 150+ minutes to assess the price of a strike say 2600 CE when PQR is trading at 2500. The challenge here is that, once you calculate the fair price - the goal post would have shifted. A change in time will affect the strike prices as “time” is a variable that contributes to its value - so it is a moving target.
Now tell me, what would you call someone when they say “Options trading is easy”, “You can make 100000 in 1 month with just Rs1000 capital”, “100% guaranteed success in options trading…” etc.
The next thing to know is the difference between trading and investing. Both are tools intended to make money but the main difference is the “time” component. Investing is usually done with no particular “time” value in mind whereas trading is done for a specific “time period”. That is why you hear people say, I have bought “XYZ” stock for the long term - Even if it appreciates in price say 10% in 10 days, the investor may not sell it. Partly because they do not want to miss out on further gains after selling.
On the other hand, trading is done with a specific time frame in mind. The trader is only worried about the prices during that window. What happens after that is none of this botheration. The fear of missing out seldom affects the trader because they know their next opportunity will come if they keep looking.
Time has more relevance & weightage than you can possibly imagine. In fact, price is relative to time and it is not the other way around. You can physically measure this concept in options trading wherein strikes go to zero value on the expiry date. The major index options have weekly expiry and the stock options have monthly expiry. So a particular strike will go from “X” value to “0” value in a week. Also important to note that during this lifecycle the strike could swing between X to 4X to 100X to 0.5X to 0.2X and end at 0 after the expiry. The prices of a strike are much more volatile than their underlying - this is the main reason options trading is a double-edged sword.
Generally, people do not respect time. Most of them respect money more than time. The decisions they make are usually to save money even if it means to waste time. If you are into stock markets - that should change. Even though your purpose is to make money - you should give the due credit to the “time factor”. Let me explain with an example. A trader buys 100 qty of ABC at 1500 intending to sell it at 1600 once the results are out. If on the results day the prices drop to 1400 - that trader will say “Let me not book the loss, I will hold it for some more time for the prices to recover”. In this particular instance, the trader is not ready to book the loss but hoping that his money will recover. Most long-term investors are traders who forget to close their trades.
A trader has to have a 180-degree opposite mindset of an investor because we are playing with limited resources. If your money is blocked on a particular trade for a period longer than your calculation - then it is 100% true that you will not be able to take another trade when there is an opportunity. No trader in the world has unlimited resources and unlimited leverage but all of them have got the exact same amount of time per day. If you know how to manage the time - the money will find a way.
This comes to the final segment of this chapter - “Value at Play”. It means the amount of money adjusted for the time factor to the reward it brings in. You might be familiar with the word “Value at Risk” (VaR). Value at Play is something similar but not measured in the same way.
.... to be continued...
USDT Trade Idea - USDT Dominance works inversely with the Crypto Market
- USDT has been following my path and I firmly believe this wave could lead to every alt jump soon.
- The narratives are obviously going to be there playing out in a different way but make sure you follow this closely
- Once you see this approaching it's previous lows try cutting down your size in Alts and crypto so that when USDT bounces you are mostly sitting cash or FIAT.
- This will help you in accumulating more cash