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Trend Analysis

TFCI LTD. (Keep on radar)📊 TFCI – HTF Confluence Based Analysis (FVG + Fibonacci + RSI) This analysis is based on historical price behavior, Fibonacci retracement, Fair Value Gap (FVG), and RSI mean-reversion characteristics. 🔹 Key Observations 1️⃣ RSI Behavior (Trend Context) Historically, this stock has respected RSI 50–51 zone as a mean support in bullish phases. RSI has reacted multiple times from this level, indicating trend continuation behavior, not exhaustion. RSI here is used as a context filter, not a standalone buy signal. 2️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement (Value Zone) In past impulsive moves, price has consistently reacted from the 0.50–0.618 retracement zone. This zone represents a healthy pullback rather than trend reversal. Current retracement is approaching the same historical value area. 3️⃣ Fair Value Gap (FVG) A bullish FVG is present in the same price region. Price is revisiting this imbalance after a strong impulsive move. FVG + Fib overlap increases the probability of institutional interest / reaction. 🔹 Confluence Area 📌 FVG + Fibonacci 0.50–0.618 + RSI ~50 This overlap creates a high-probability reaction zone, provided price confirms via structure. 🔹 Trade Plan Logic (Execution Based) Bias: Bullish as long as HTF structure holds Zone: FVG overlapping with 0.50–0.618 Fib Confirmation Required: Structure shift on Daily or Hourly TF Higher low / bullish engulfing / reclaim of minor resistance RSI Role: Should hold near or above 50 during confirmation ⚠️ No aggressive entries without confirmation. 🔹 Invalidation Sustained acceptance below the FVG + 0.618 Fib Loss of higher-low structure on HTF 🧠 Conclusion This is a confluence-based setup, not a prediction. If price confirms strength inside the value zone, the risk–reward becomes favorable. Otherwise, patience is required until structure validates the thesis. I am not a SEBI Registered. This analysis is purely for educational purposes only. If you gain some learning from this chart, then please like this post for more reach & also do comment if you have any questions regarding this.
NSE:TFCILTDLong
by Nshravan1
RELIANCE: US attack on Venezuela & Level Analysis❇️ New Delhi: The US attack on Venezuela is unlikely to have any material impact on Indian refiners, which had already exited Venezuelan crude due to sanctions. Venezuela is now a marginal exporter, and any supply disruption is unlikely to lift 💥India's Exposure: Venezuela supplies ~3-5% of India's crude imports (USD 364.5M in FY25, per ET). Reliance's Jamnagar refinery (1.24M bpd capacity) diversified sources (Russia 30%, US 20%, Middle East 40%); Venezuelan crude <10% pre-2024 sanctions. Fundamental Impact on RELIANCE💥 💥 Refining Margins: Minimal hit —crude diversification shields from supply shocks. If Venezuelan output rises under US influence, cheaper heavy crude could widen Reliance's GRM (gross refining margin) to $15-18/bbl (current ~$14). Risk: Short-term Brent volatility (+2-3% if escalation) could squeeze margins by 5-10%. Flows & Valuations: FIIs net bought ₹500 Cr in energy Dec end (offsetting YTD ₹2.3L Cr outflows); DII supportive. RELIANCE P/E ~22x (sector avg 20x), EV/EBITDA ~8x—stable amid event. 💥 Global/Macro: US CPI soft (2.7% Dec) aids EMs; rupee ~90.45 steady on RBI. Geopolitical: Low escalation risk (China/Russia condemn but no retaliation), per X sentiment (posts focus on oil prices, not India-specific panic). Conclusion: 🚀Buy on Dip Strategy. ❇️Screen Shot of 75 min TF❇️ 💥Level Interpretation / description: L#1: If the candle crossed & stays above the “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Bullish bias. L#2: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLB#1 & UBTgt L#3: If the candle stays above “Sell Gen” but below “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Sidewise. Aggressive Traders can take Long position near “Sell Gen” either retesting or crossed from Below & vice-versa i.e. can take Short position near “Buy Gen” either retesting or crossed downward from Above. L#4: If the candle crossed & stays below the “Sell Gen”, it is treated / considered a Bearish bias. L#5: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLS#1 & USTgt HZB (Buy side) & HZS (Sell side) => Hurdle Zone, *** Specialty of “HZB#1, HZB#2 HZS#1 & HZS#2” is Sidewise (behaviour in Nature) Rest Plotted and Mentioned on Chart Color code Used: Green =. Positive bias. Red =. Negative bias. RED in Between Green means Trend Finder / Momentum Change / CYCLE Change and Vice Versa. Notice One thing: HOW LEVELS are Working. Use any Momentum Indicator / Oscillator or as you "USED to" to Take entry. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: The information, views, and ideas shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. I am not a SEBI-registered financial adviser. Trading and investing in the stock market involves risk, and you should do your own research and analysis. You are solely responsible for any decisions made based on this research. "As HARD EARNED MONEY IS YOUR's, So DECISION SHOULD HAVE TO BE YOUR's". Do comment if Helpful . Do Comment for In depth Analysis. ❇️ Follow notification about periodical View 💥 Do Comment for Stock WEEKLY Level Analysis.🚀
NSE:RELIANCE
by DSKF16
2
2026 XAUUSD/GOLD YEARLY ANALYSISXAUUSD / GOLD – 2026 Yearly Buy Plan With Entry, Stop Loss & Targets 🔹 Market Bias Gold (XAUUSD) is bullish for 2026 based on: Global economic uncertainty Central bank gold accumulation Expected US interest-rate cuts Strong long-term bullish structure on the daily chart 🔹 Buy Zones (Entries) ✅ Major Buy Zone (Best Risk–Reward) Entry: 3,250 – 3,300 This zone is near: Golden Fibonacci retracement Yearly swing low Strong institutional demand area 👉 Suitable for positional & long-term investors ✅ First Confirmation Buy Entry: 3,950 – 4,050 Buy only if price holds above support and shows bullish candles 👉 Suitable for safe swing traders 🔴 Stop Loss (Risk Control) 🛑 Stop Loss Placement Stop Loss: Below 3,150 Reason: Break of yearly structure Bullish view invalid below this level 📌 Risk should be 1–2% per trade, not more. 🎯 Take Profit Targets (2026) 🎯 Target 1 4,800 – 5,000 Partial profit booking recommended (30–40%) 🎯 Target 2 5,800 – 6,000 Trail stop loss to cost or profit 🎯 Target 3 (Long-Term Extreme Target) 7,500 – 7,800 Only for patient positional holders 🔹 Trade Management Plan Buy only on pullbacks, not at highs Book partial profits at each target Move stop loss gradually as price moves up Avoid over-leverage
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by kripsonfx97
XAUUSD (D1) – Elliott ABC pattern activeLana sells the pullback, waits to buy at major liquidity 💛 Quick summary Timeframe: Daily (D1) Elliott view: Price is likely developing an ABC corrective structure after a strong rally Strategy: Sell the B-wave pullback into supply, buy only when price returns to strong liquidity Context: Precious metals started 2026 strong, but short-term volatility and re-accumulation swings are still expected Fundamental backdrop (supports the bigger trend) Gold and silver opened 2026 with strong momentum, extending the best run since the late 1970s. Goldman Sachs remains bullish on precious metals and continues to highlight an aggressive long-term target (around $4,900 for gold). Lana’s key point: the long-term bull cycle can remain intact, but the market still needs healthy corrections to reset liquidity and build new structure. Technical view (D1) – Elliott ABC structure On the Daily chart, after the powerful top, gold dropped sharply, forming a clean Wave A. The current structure suggests: Wave B: a corrective rebound into resistance/supply Wave C: a potential move back down into liquidity zones before the next major direction is confirmed This ABC lens helps avoid getting trapped when the news looks bullish, but price is still in a corrective phase. Key levels from the chart 1) Sell zone (B-wave supply) Sell: 4435 – 4440 This zone aligns with marked resistance and a Fibonacci pullback cluster (0.236 / 0.382). If price retraces here and shows rejection, it’s a strong area to look for B-wave selling pressure. 2) Buy zone (major liquidity – potential C-wave completion) Buy Liquidity: 4196 – 4200 This is the strongest liquidity area on the chart. If Wave C plays out, Lana will look for buying opportunities here with clearer risk control. 3) Deeper accumulation liquidity Accumulate liquidity: the lower accumulation area highlighted on the chart If the market sweeps deeper than expected, this is the region where longer-term buyers may step in. Trading plan (Lana’s approach) Primary idea: Sell rallies into 4435–4440 if price shows weakness (B-wave rejection). Primary buy plan: Wait for price to revisit 4196–4200 and confirm support (liquidity absorption). If price breaks and holds above the sell zone, Lana stops selling and waits for a new structure to form. Note on early-year behavior The first weeks of the year often bring “messy” moves as liquidity returns and positioning resets. Lana will only trade at planned zones and avoid entries in the middle of the range. This is Lana’s personal market view and not financial advice.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lana_M2
2
XAUUSD/GOLD WEEKLY SELL PROJECTION 04.01.26Price was moving inside a parallel uptrend channel That channel is clearly broken, which is the first early warning of trend weakness After the break, price failed to continue higher → bullish momentum exhausted 2️⃣ Major Reversal Patterns Double Top Formation Price tested the same resistance zone twice Both tops were rejected strongly This confirms buyers are unable to push price higher M Pattern Confirmation After the second top, price breaks below the neckline This confirms trend reversal 3️⃣ Candlestick Confirmation (Very Strong) At the resistance zone: Evening Star (Triple Candlestick Pattern) → Classic reversal signal Bearish Engulfing Candle → Sellers completely overpower buyers These patterns together give a high-probability SELL confirmation 4️⃣ Resistance Zones Resistance R2 → Major rejection zone (double top area) Resistance R1 → Previous supply zone Price respected resistance and obeyed the trendline → SELL zone 5️⃣ Entry Logic (SELL) Sell after: Trendline break Double top confirmation Bearish engulfing close This is a swing low sell setup 6️⃣ Targets & Risk Management Support S1 → First target / partial booking zone Support S2 → Final target Risk : Reward = 1 : 2
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by kripsonfx97
1
NIFTY KEY LEVELS FOR 05.01.2026NIFTY KEY LEVELS FOR 05.01.2026 Timeframe: 3 Minutes If the candle stays above the pivot point, it is considered a bullish bias; if it remains below, it indicates a bearish bias. Price may reverse near Resistance 1 or Support 1. If it moves further, the next potential reversal zone is near Resistance 2 or Support 2. If these levels are also broken, we can expect the trend. When a support or resistance level is broken, it often reverses its role; a broken resistance becomes the new support, and a broken support becomes the new resistance. If the range(R2-S2) is narrow, the market may become volatile or trend strongly. If the range is wide, the market is more likely to remain sideways please like and share my idea if you find it helpful 📢 Disclaimer I am not a SEBI-registered financial adviser. The information, views, and ideas shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. Please consult with your SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. Trading and investing in the stock market involves risk, and you should do your own research and analysis. You are solely responsible for any decisions made based on this research
NSE:NIFTY
by AATHIE
INDIAN HOTELS (INDHOTEL) – Swing Trade SetupINDIAN HOTELS (INDHOTEL): CMP: 748.65; RSI: 51.47 ✅ Trend: Strong Bullish (Weekly Golden Cross) 📐 Pattern: Flag consolidation → Breakout setup 🔔 Entry: • Above ₹770 (weekly close / breakout confirmation) ⛔ Stop Loss: • ₹700 (below flag support & recent swing low) 🎯 Targets: • T1: ₹820–830 (partial profit) • T2: ₹880–900 (flag pole projection / Wave-V zone) 📌 Risk–Reward: ~1:2.5 to 1:3 ⚠️ Note: • Enter only on breakout with volume • Trail SL once T1 is achieved 📈 Trend is up. Consolidation is healthy. Breakout can lead to next expansion leg. 📌 Thanks a ton for checking out my idea! Hope it sparked some value for you. 🙏 Follow for more insights 👍 Boost if you found it helpful ✍️ Drop a comment with your thoughts below!
NSE:INDHOTELLong
by DrPrashantVerma
WHEN THE RUPEE SCREAMS, MARKETS WHISPERA 20‑Year Inter‑Market Study Linking USD/INR Extremes to NIFTY Turning Points Executive Snapshot For over two decades, the USD/INR exchange rate has followed a clearly defined long‑term rising channel. This study explores a powerful yet under‑discussed inter‑market relationship: Indian equity markets tend to form major bottoms when USD/INR approaches long‑term resistance, and tend to form tops when USD/INR approaches long‑term support. Rather than acting as a trading signal, USD/INR is analysed here as a macro‑risk positioning indicator — helping investors identify probability zones of opportunity and risk. ________________________________________ The Hypothesis USD/INR behaves as a macro stress barometer for Indian equities. When currency stress peaks, equity risk is often already priced in. This framework shifts focus from prediction to risk‑reward asymmetry. ________________________________________ Key Historical Evidence (2003–2024) Inter‑Market Turning Points USD/INR Touch Point Period NIFTY NIFTY NIFTY % Gain Resistance → Support Feb‑2016 → Feb‑2018 7,500 10,760 43.47% Resistance → Support Oct‑2018 → Jun‑2019 10,316 11,788 14.27% Resistance → Support Mar‑2020 → Mar‑2021 8,660 14,867 71.67% Resistance → Support Sep‑2022 → Sep‑2024 17,094 26,178 53.14% Observation: Each instance of USD/INR testing long‑term resistance was followed by strong forward equity returns. ________________________________________ Why This Relationship Exists When USD/INR Nears Resistance • Capital outflows peak • Risk aversion dominates sentiment • INR weakness is fully priced in • Equities are already de‑risked ➡️ Markets bottom not on good news, but on exhaustion of bad news. ________________________________________ When USD/INR Nears Support • Capital inflows surge • Liquidity is abundant • Valuations expand aggressively • Risk perception collapses ➡️ Markets top when comfort is highest. ________________________________________ Probability Zone Framework 🟢 High Opportunity Zone USD/INR near long‑term resistance - Equity downside risk: Low - Forward returns: Above average - Investor mindset: Accumulation ________________________________________ 🟡 Neutral / Trend Zone USD/INR mid‑channel - Balanced risk‑reward - Stock selection critical ________________________________________ 🔴 High Risk Zone USD/INR near long‑term support - Equity drawdown risk elevated - Forward returns compressed - Capital protection becomes priority ________________________________________ What This Model Is — and Is Not This model IS: - A long‑term allocation aid - A regime identification framework - A behavioral risk‑management tool This model is NOT: - A short‑term trading signal - A market timing system - A replacement for fundamental analysis ________________________________________ Current Context (2025 Perspective) USD/INR remains in the upper half of its secular channel. While this does not imply immediate upside, it suggests that panic‑driven decisions may be costly and that equity risk‑reward is not as unfavorable as headline narratives suggest. ________________________________________ Conclusion The USDINR–NIFTY relationship offers a simple yet powerful lens to view Indian equity cycles. By observing currency extremes rather than price noise, investors can align capital deployment with macro probability zones rather than emotions. In markets, what feels safest is often most dangerous — and what feels riskiest often offers the best opportunity. ________________________________________ Disclaimer NOT A BUY / SELL RECOMMENDATION I am not an expert. I just share interesting charts here for educational purposes and not to be taken as buy/sell recommendations. Please seek expert opinion before investing or trading, as investing/trading in markets is subject to market risks. I do not hold any position in the securities referred to as on date; however, I may look to take positions based on my own risk‑reward framework.
Long
by purisonshuf
PIIND: Price Testing a Long-Term Structural Support TrendlineThis chart highlights a well-respected long-term rising support trendline, validated multiple times over several market cycles. Each marked touch shows how price has historically reacted from this structure, confirming its relevance and strength. Currently, price has once again returned to this major structural support after a corrective phase. The decline into support has been orderly, without panic or excessive volatility, suggesting controlled participation rather than distribution. From a pure price-action perspective: Structure remains intact Support is clearly defined Risk is naturally limited near the trendline No indicators are required here. The chart itself tells the story — institutional memory exists at this level, and price behavior around this zone will be more important than any indicator reading. This is a simple, clean, and high-quality structure, best observed with patience and discipline.
NSE:PIINDLong
by siripireddyvenu
INDHOTEL: Inverse Head & Shoulders within a Contracting TriangleINDHOTEL has been correcting for a prolonged period and is now showing a clear shift in structure. Price has formed an Inverse Head & Shoulders near the lower end of the range, highlighting gradual absorption of selling pressure. At the same time, the broader structure is compressing between a falling trendline (resistance) and rising lows (support), creating a contracting triangle. This phase reflects price digestion after a decline, where volatility narrows and balance builds between buyers and sellers. The recent higher low and steady acceptance above support indicate improving participation from the buy side. Overall, this is a structural recovery attempt inside a compression zone, best observed through price behavior rather than indicators.
NSE:INDHOTELLong
by siripireddyvenu
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 5 Jan 2026NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 5 Jan 2026 Bullish-Above 26350 Invalid-Below 26300 T- 26640 Bearish Below 26200 Invalid-Above 26250 T- 26040 NIFTY has closed on a bullish note with over 1% gain last week, closing at ATH. Its a engulfing candle and index is on verge of breakout of daily range (26350- 26700) which has been valid since last 1 month. 26350 and 26200 will be Monday's range to watch for breakout for a directional move any side. Plan on 15 Min candle close. I am Not SEBI Registered This is my personal analysis for my personal trading. Kindly consult your financial advisor before taking any actions based on this.
NSE:NIFTY
by Omahto
Types of Swing Trading: Strategies, Styles, and Market Approach1. Trend-Based Swing Trading Trend-based swing trading is one of the most widely used and beginner-friendly approaches. This type focuses on identifying an established market trend—uptrend, downtrend, or sideways—and entering trades in the direction of that trend. In an uptrend, swing traders look to buy during pullbacks or consolidations, expecting the price to resume its upward movement. In a downtrend, traders may short-sell during temporary rallies. The logic behind this method is that trends tend to persist longer than expected due to institutional participation, economic drivers, or strong investor sentiment. Trend-based swing traders rely heavily on technical indicators such as moving averages, trendlines, MACD, and RSI. The key advantage of this type is higher probability, as trading with the trend reduces the risk of sudden reversals. However, false breakouts and sudden trend changes can pose challenges. 2. Range-Bound Swing Trading Range-bound swing trading is used when markets lack a clear trend and instead move within a defined price range. In such conditions, prices oscillate between support and resistance levels. Swing traders using this method aim to buy near support and sell near resistance, repeatedly capitalizing on price reversals within the range. This type is especially effective in stable markets or during periods of low volatility when major economic triggers are absent. Technical tools such as horizontal support and resistance, Bollinger Bands, and oscillators like RSI and Stochastic are crucial here. The primary risk lies in unexpected breakouts, which can quickly invalidate the trading range. Proper stop-loss placement is essential to manage this risk. 3. Breakout Swing Trading Breakout swing trading focuses on entering trades when the price breaks out of a consolidation zone, chart pattern, or key resistance/support level. The expectation is that the breakout will lead to strong momentum and sustained movement. Common breakout structures include triangles, rectangles, flags, wedges, and channels. Traders typically enter positions once volume confirms the breakout, increasing confidence that the move is genuine rather than a false signal. This type of swing trading can deliver significant gains in a short time, but it carries the risk of false breakouts, where price briefly crosses a level and then reverses sharply. Discipline and confirmation through volume or retests are critical to success in this approach. 4. Pullback Swing Trading Pullback swing trading is a refinement of trend trading and is highly favored by professional traders. Instead of chasing price momentum, traders wait for a temporary retracement (pullback) within a strong trend and then enter at a better price. For example, in an uptrend, prices may fall slightly due to profit booking or short-term news. Swing traders look to enter near moving averages or Fibonacci retracement levels, anticipating the continuation of the main trend. The strength of pullback trading lies in better risk-to-reward ratios, as entries are closer to support. However, distinguishing between a healthy pullback and a trend reversal requires experience and strong analytical skills. 5. Reversal Swing Trading Reversal swing trading attempts to identify turning points in the market, where an existing trend is about to end and reverse direction. This type is more aggressive and riskier compared to trend-following strategies. Traders look for signs such as divergence between price and indicators, exhaustion gaps, candlestick reversal patterns, and extreme overbought or oversold conditions. Successful reversal trading can offer large gains, as traders enter near the beginning of a new trend. However, the difficulty lies in timing. Entering too early can result in losses if the trend continues longer than expected. Therefore, reversal swing trading is best suited for experienced traders with strong risk management. 6. Momentum Swing Trading Momentum swing trading focuses on stocks or assets showing strong price acceleration backed by high volume. These moves are often driven by earnings announcements, news events, sector rotations, or broader market sentiment. Swing traders aim to ride the momentum for a few days or weeks until signs of exhaustion appear. Indicators like volume analysis, rate of change (ROC), and relative strength help identify momentum candidates. This type of swing trading can be highly profitable in volatile markets, but it requires constant monitoring, as momentum can fade quickly once news impact diminishes. 7. Event-Driven Swing Trading Event-driven swing trading revolves around scheduled or unscheduled events such as earnings results, economic data releases, mergers, policy announcements, or geopolitical developments. Traders anticipate how the market may react to these events and position themselves accordingly, often combining fundamental insights with technical confirmation. Positions are typically short-term and closed once volatility subsides. While event-driven trading can generate rapid gains, it also carries higher uncertainty due to unpredictable market reactions. Risk control and position sizing are crucial in this type. 8. Sector and Relative Strength Swing Trading This type of swing trading focuses on sector rotation and relative performance. Traders identify sectors outperforming the broader market and then select strong stocks within those sectors for swing trades. The idea is that capital flows into certain industries during specific economic cycles, creating sustained price movements. Relative strength indicators and comparative charts are widely used in this approach. This method blends macro understanding with technical analysis, offering diversification and consistency. However, sudden shifts in market leadership can impact performance. Conclusion Swing trading is not a single strategy but a collection of trading styles, each suited to different market environments and trader personalities. From trend-following and range trading to breakouts, reversals, and event-driven approaches, swing trading offers flexibility and adaptability. The key to long-term success lies in choosing a type that aligns with one’s risk tolerance, time commitment, and analytical strengths, while maintaining strict discipline and risk management. When executed correctly, swing trading can serve as a powerful bridge between short-term speculation and long-term investing.
Education
by TechnicalExpress
HERO MOTOCORP: High-Momentum Base & Breakout SetupThe stock is exhibiting a "Buy on Dips" profile within a strong Stage 2 Uptrend. After a significant upmove, it formed a sideways consolidation (a "flat base" or "pennant") to digest gains before resuming its upward trajectory. The recent bounce from the 10-period Moving Average (MA) confirms that short-term demand remains aggressive. Technical Analysis & Breakout Factors Base and Breakout Pattern: The stock has formed a tight consolidation range after hitting its peak. A decisive move above the ₹6,030 resistance marks the start of a fresh breakout leg. Moving Average Alignment: HEROMOTOCO is trading above ALL key moving averages (5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day SMAs). The 10 MA and 20 MA are acting as immediate dynamic support, currently hovering around the ₹5,770 – ₹5,900 zone. Relative Strength (RS): Positive. 10 MA Bounce: The price recently touched the 10 MA and responded with a strong bullish candle, signaling that buyers are stepping in at higher levels to defend the trend. Volume Confirmation: On the breakout day , the stock saw robust trading volume. Trade Recommendation: Long Position (Momentum Breakout) Action: BUY (Long Entry) Entry Trigger: Daily Close above ₹6,030 (Confirmed break of the intraday high/resistance). Target 1 (T1): ₹6,330 (Prior all-time high resistance zone). Target 2 (T2): ₹6,500 – ₹6,650 (Brokerage target price based on expected volume growth in FY26). Stop-Loss (SL): ₹5,770 (Strict SL below the 20-day SMA and recent pivot low). Risk/Reward Ratio (R:R): Approx. 1:1.9 (Risking ~₹260 to gain ~₹500+). Key Takeaway for Traders Hero MotoCorp is a market leader benefiting from a recovery in rural demand and strategic global expansion. The technical setup; a base breakout with a 10 MA support bounce, is a classic momentum trigger. Monitor delivery volumes to ensure long-term holders are joining the move. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please perform your own research or consult a financial advisor before trading.
NSE:HEROMOTOCOLong
by Sudhi4488
ENTERO: Trendline Breakout From IPO Base, Chart of The WeekFrom IPO Euphoria to Reality Check: Is Entero Healthcare Finding Its Footing at ₹1,000? Last Week, it broke the Trendline after Taking Support on the IPO base. Let's Understand in "Chart of the Week" As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions. Price Action Analysis: Overall Trend Structure: The stock exhibits a classic post-IPO distribution pattern that has transitioned into a prolonged corrective phase. After listing at premium levels, Entero Healthcare established an all-time high of around ₹1,584 in the early trading sessions. Since then, the stock has been in a consistent downtrend, forming a descending channel pattern characterised by lower highs and lower lows. The current price action at ₹1,123 represents a potential inflexion point, with the stock attempting to reverse from its 52-week low of ₹944. This level has now been tested multiple times, suggesting it may be forming a demand zone. Base Formation and Consolidation Zones: A Critical IPO base zone around the ₹950-1,000 level represents the convergence of several technical factors: - Initial Public Offering pricing memory - Multiple tests of support over several weeks - High volume accumulation zone - Psychological round number support at ₹1,000 The stock spent considerable time between ₹1,100-1,300 during the mid-2025 period, forming what appears to be a distribution zone where early investors and IPO allocates likely exited positions. Trendline Analysis: A prominent downtrend line connects the series of lower highs from the peak at ₹1,584 down to current levels. This trendline has acted as dynamic resistance throughout the decline, with multiple failed breakout attempts. The angle of decline suggests aggressive selling pressure that has only recently started to moderate. The recent price action shows the stock attempting to break above this multi-week downtrend line, which, if successful on sustained volume, could signal a trend reversal. Current Price Structure: Recent candlestick patterns show increasing buying pressure: - Strong bullish candle with 17.95% gain, breaking above recent consolidation - Price attempting to reclaim the ₹1,100-1,200 zone - Reduction in selling pressure as evidenced by smaller-bodied bearish candles in recent sessions Volume Spread Analysis: Volume Profile: The volume bar chart at the bottom reveals several critical insights: Initial listing period showed extremely high volumes (approaching 3M shares), reflecting IPO excitement and allocation distribution. As the stock price declined, volume generally decreased, which is typical of a loss of interest and momentum. Recent sessions have shown a notable pickup in volume, particularly: - The current session is showing 2.17M shares traded - This represents the highest weekly volume since the post-IPO period - Volume spike coinciding with price bounce from the ₹944 low Volume-Price Correlation: The relationship between price and volume provides important context: - Downtrend was accompanied by declining volume, suggesting weak conviction in the selling - Recent bounce from ₹944 came with significant volume expansion, indicating institutional or informed buying - The volume surge at support levels suggests accumulation rather than distribution - Volume on up days is starting to exceed volume on down days, a positive divergence Volume at Key Levels: The IPO base around ₹1,000 has seen sustained high volume, creating a significant support zone. This volume cluster suggests that many participants have established positions at these levels and are likely to defend them. Key Support and Resistance: Major Support Levels: Primary Support: ₹944 - This represents the 52-week low and has been tested multiple times. A breakdown below this level would be technically significant and likely trigger stop losses. Secondary Support : ₹1,000 (IPO Base) - This psychological level and IPO reference point have provided support during multiple retests. Tertiary Support: ₹1,100 - This level has acted as both support and resistance during the consolidation phase and represents a minor demand zone. Major Resistance Levels: Immediate Resistance: ₹1,200 - This level represents the recent consolidation zone ceiling and the lower boundary of the prior distribution range. Primary Resistance: ₹1,300 - Strong resistance zone where the stock has repeatedly failed to sustain higher prices. This area coincides with multiple supply zones from earlier in the year. Major Resistance: ₹1,400 - The upper boundary of the post-IPO distribution range. Breaking above this would negate the bearish structure. Ultimate Resistance: ₹1,584 (All-Time High) - The peak was established shortly after IPO listing. A move to this level would represent a full recovery. Downtrend Line Resistance: The descending trendline connecting the highs currently intersects around the ₹1,150-1,200 zone. This dynamic resistance will need to be convincingly broken for the downtrend to be considered over. The current price action suggests this breakout may be in progress. Major Technical Patterns: Falling Wedge (Potential): In the most recent price action, there are early signs of a falling wedge pattern forming, characterised by converging trendlines as the stock makes lower lows with decreasing momentum. This is typically a bullish reversal pattern. Double Bottom (Forming): The chart shows a potential double bottom pattern with lows around ₹944 separated by several weeks. This pattern would be confirmed on a break above ₹1,200 with volume. Candlestick Patterns: Recent price action displays several notable candlestick formations: - Hammer candles at the ₹944 support level, indicating rejection of lower prices - Doji candles during consolidation phases, showing indecision - Today's strong bullish engulfing pattern suggests a momentum shift - Decreasing size of bearish candles in the downtrend, showing exhaustion Chart Pattern Implications: The combination of these patterns suggests: - Downtrend may be exhausting - Support at ₹944 is holding firm - Volume accumulation at lows indicates smart money positioning - Breaking the downtrend line could trigger technical buying - A confirmed reversal would target ₹1,300-1,400 initially Fundamental and Sectoral Backdrop: Company Overview: NSE:ENTERO operates as a leading healthcare products distributor in India, ranking among the top three in the sector. Founded in 2018 by promoter Prabhat Agrawal, the company has rapidly scaled its operations through both organic growth and strategic acquisitions. Business Model and Operations: Core Business: Distribution and marketing of pharmaceutical and surgical products, including generic formulations, surgical consumables, medical devices, nutraceuticals, biosimilars, and hospital consumables. Infrastructure: The company operates an extensive distribution network with 101 warehouses across 20 states, serving over 95,300 retail pharmacies and more than 3,600 hospitals. Growth Strategy: Aggressive expansion through acquisitions. In FY2025 alone, the company acquired stakes in seven distribution entities, including 80% stakes in Avenir Lifecare and Gourav Medical Agencies, and the full acquisition of Suprabhat Pharmaceuticals and Devi Pharma Wellness. Technology Edge: Utilises a proprietary technology platform for demand fulfilment and supply chain optimisation, positioning itself as a "Healthcare Supply Chain Solutions Specialist." Financial Performance: Revenue Growth: Demonstrated strong top-line growth with Q2 FY2025-26 showing 20.1% year-over-year growth and 11.8% quarter-on-quarter increase to ₹5,135 crores. Market Capitalization: Currently around ₹4,888 crores Profitability Journey: The company was loss-making from FY2021-2023 but turned profitable in FY2024. For the full year FY2025-2026, profit reached ₹107.43 crores, marking a significant turnaround. Institutional Interest: Recent institutional activity indicates growing confidence: ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund acquired approximately 21.82 lakh shares at ₹950 per share in December 2025, signalling institutional confidence at current levels. The acquisition was part of bulk deals, with a total transaction value of around ₹207.3 crores, showing significant institutional capital allocation. This institutional buying coincides with the technical support zone, suggesting smart money accumulation at perceived value levels. Sectoral Dynamics: India's Healthcare Distribution Opportunity: The Indian healthcare sector is experiencing transformative growth, valued at ₹31.87 lakh crores ($372 billion) in 2023 and projected to reach ₹54.67 lakh crores ($638 billion) by 2025, representing a 17.5-22.5% CAGR. Healthcare spending is increasing from 3.3% of GDP to an expected 5% by 2030, driven by government initiatives, insurance penetration, and rising middle-class healthcare consumption. Market Structure: The healthcare distribution sector in India remains highly fragmented, with consolidation opportunities. Entero's strategy of acquiring regional distributors aligns with this consolidation trend. Growth Drivers: - Expanding hospital infrastructure: Private hospitals adding 4,000+ beds with ₹11,500 crore investments in FY26 - Rising insurance penetration: Over 550 million Indians are now covered under health insurance schemes - Tier 2 and Tier 3 city expansion: 55-60% of new hospital beds coming from secondary cities - Ageing population: A Growing elderly demographic requiring chronic disease management - Medical tourism: Expected to reach $14.31 billion by 2029 Competitive Positioning: Strengths: - Pan-India presence with an extensive warehousing network - Authorised distributor for top pharmaceutical companies - Strategic relationships with leading corporate hospital chains - Technology-driven platform providing operational efficiency - Aggressive growth through acquisitions in a fragmented market Challenges: - Capital-intensive business model requiring continuous working capital - Thin margins are typical of distribution businesses - Integration risk from multiple acquisitions - Competition from established distributors and direct distribution by manufacturers Credit Rating and Financial Health: India Ratings affirmed Entero Healthcare's issuer rating at IND A-/Stable in December 2025, indicating adequate credit quality with a stable outlook. Working Capital Intensive: A Significant portion of IPO proceeds (₹600 crores) is allocated for long-term working capital requirements, highlighting the capital-intensive nature of the business. Strategic Outlook: The company is well-positioned to benefit from several macro trends: Healthcare Sector Consolidation: As the industry matures, organised distribution players like Entero will gain market share from fragmented local distributors. Digital Health Integration: The digital health market is expected to grow at a 24.4% CAGR from 2025-2030, and Entero's technology platform positions it to capitalise on this trend. Supply Chain Optimisation: Post-pandemic focus on resilient healthcare supply chains favours established distribution networks. Rural Penetration: Government push for rural healthcare infrastructure creates distribution opportunities beyond metros. Risk Factors: Business Risks: - High dependence on working capital financing - Potential for inventory obsolescence in pharmaceutical distribution - Regulatory changes in pharmaceutical pricing and distribution - Competition from direct-to-pharmacy models by manufacturers Financial Risks: - Debt levels from acquisition financing - Integration challenges from multiple acquisitions - Margin pressure in a competitive distribution landscape Key Metrics to Watch: - EBITDA margin improvement from operational leverage - Return on capital employed as brownfield expansions mature - Working capital efficiency and cash conversion cycle - Market share gains in key geographies My 2 Cents: Entero Healthcare is at a critical technical juncture, testing the boundaries of a months-long downtrend. The stock has established a strong support base around ₹944-1,000, coinciding with IPO pricing memories and significant institutional buying. Recent volume surge and price action suggest potential trend reversal, though confirmation requires a sustained break above ₹1,200. The technical setup presents a balanced risk-reward for traders willing to use tight stops below ₹944, with initial upside targets of ₹1,300-1,400 if the reversal confirms. From a fundamental perspective, Entero Healthcare operates in a structurally attractive sector with strong tailwinds. The company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth and recently achieved profitability. Its extensive distribution network and strategic acquisitions position it well for continued market share gains in a consolidating industry. However, investors should note the capital-intensive nature of the business, integration risks from rapid acquisitions, and the need for sustained margin improvement to justify valuations. The alignment of technical support with institutional buying at ₹950 levels and the strong sectoral backdrop creates an interesting setup. The stock appears to be transitioning from the IPO distribution phase to the potential accumulation phase. For position traders, the current levels offer an entry opportunity with defined risk below ₹944 and potential reward toward ₹1,300-1,400. The key catalysts to watch include: - Quarterly results demonstrating margin expansion - Successful integration of recent acquisitions - Sustained volume above ₹1,200 confirming trend reversal - Further institutional accumulation - Sector-wide tailwinds from healthcare spending growth The convergence of technical base formation, institutional interest, and strong sectoral dynamics creates a compelling narrative, though investors should remain mindful of execution risks and maintain appropriate position sizing with stop losses. Full Coverage on my Mid-Week Newsletter coming Wednesday. Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:ENTEROLong
by Karanshah137
3
MarketOmorph — Weekly Structural Update - Silver (XAGUSD)Silver remains in a volatile consolidation phase after a sharp advance. While price swings have expanded, the internal structure continues to show overlap rather than impulsive continuation or reversal. Volatility alone does not confirm trend resolution. The higher-degree structure remains intact, and the market is still digesting prior strength. Patience is required until structure provides confirmation. 🔗 Yearly structural context: MarketOmorph — Structural reference only | Educational #MarketOmorph #Silver #XAGUSD #MarketStructure #StructuralAnalysis
OANDA:XAGUSD
by kacraj
IDBI BANK LTD ANALYSISTHIS IS MY CHART OF THE WEEK PICK FOR LEARNING PURPOSE IDBI BANK- The current price of IDBI is 114.73 rupees I am going to buy this stock because of the reasons as follows- 1. It has given a breakout of last 11 year resistance with some good volume and looks great. 2. This stock has seen some great buying from mid 2022 to March 2024. Then it went for some time and price correction which was needed. This stock has been in my watchlist from last weeks. I am personally more aggressive on Banks as they are holding really well. 3. It is showing better relative strength as it stood strong in volatile times including last few weeks. 4. The risk and reward is favourable. 5. The stock is one of the outperformers in this market. The structure is great as of now. It has also outperformed it's sector in very short term but it was more of a lagging stock in long term and probably it will show better strength in coming days. 6. Another good part- The overall sector has shown some decent strength and have good momentum. I am expecting more from this in coming weeks. I will buy it with minimum target of 35-40% and then will trail after that. My SL is at 100 rupees. I will be managing my risk.
NSE:IDBILong
by Its_Bhushan