Trend Lines
Trade what's happening...not what you think is gonna happenAs soon as we see a breakout on the chart we form a basis ( or have a belief ) that the stock will burst and go upside.
We should not try to predict the market. Instead, we should wait and let the market tell whether the breakout is false or true.
You can crosscheck with other indicators. I personally use PRICE ACTION data i.e. after breakout the upper trend line previously acting as resistance now should act as Support.
Risk management - Enter 30% position at breakout, if the trade fails then your loss will be only upon 30% position. If the price respects the upper trend line then you can execute your remaining 70% position.
There is a big difference between predictive technical analysis and reactive technical analysis.
Predicting is trying to forecast where prices will go in the future and taking trades based on that belief.
Reactive trading is based on taking a trade after a signal has indicated the beginning of a trend.
The biggest leap to profitability comes when we stop taking trades based on what we think should happen in the market, and instead learn to trade signals that react to what is happening.
Note - The market doesn’t care about your opinion. It will go where it wants to go based on all of the participants’ actions. Get in the habit of going with the flow, and avoid trying to predict where the flow is going.
elliot wave labellinglabelling done using following rules
for impulse
1)wave 2 should not retrace wave 1 entirely
2)wave 3 cant be shortest
3)wave 4 cant enter wave 1(except diagonal)
for flat with truncated wave c
1)wave b should at least retrace wave a by 80%
2)wave c should at least reach 61.8% extention of wave a.
for zigzag with truncated wave c
1)wave b should not retrace more then 61.8% wave a
2)wave c should atleast reach 61.8% wave a extention.
correction completion 2 stage confirmation rules
1)stage -1 confirmation: 0-b trendline must breach in less time than wave c took to form
2)stage -2 confirmation: wave b should also be taken out or crossed in less time than wave c took to form.
Labelling information
cycle degree: yellow
primary degree: white
intermediate degree: red
minor degree: green
apply fib rules for wave 2,3,4,5,b,c waves targets and trade accordingly by following a trade plan which gives entry and exit signals with target and stop-loss and follow risk management for effective trading results.
BANKNIFTY WEEKLY ANALYSIS (17/7/21)- Price is converging between lower trendline and upper trendline, will need to give breakout (follow the major trend)
- Price must trade above 35800 and sustain to make upper move to ATH which is 5.38% away)
- Outperformed nifty this week, follow up price action is needed (upside) as price closed exactly at upper trendline shadow
- Anticipating breakout in 1-3 weeks time period (although market is supreme)
- HDFC bank results on Monday, can help decide the direction of BNF.
NIFTY WEEKLY ANALYSIS (17/7/21)Trendline still not broken (price near trendline and in consolidation mode around 15600 to 15900
This week the nifty closed at ATH and managed to close at upper levels.
Making small momentum candles (can break either side, p.s. Major trend is up)
Strong support at 15300 levels
A decisive close above 16000 with a catalyst is needed to enter new territory.
This weak midcap/ Smallcap and many other stocks blasted (realty/ pharma / broking) stocks did well.
ASTRON | WEEKLY ANALYSIS | 40%-100% UPSIDE POTENTIALCLOSELY WATCH THE LEVELS
VOLUMES HAVE STARTED TO POP IN
23/6/21
- Smallcap, Material (paper)--posted negative results FY21---quarterly results mar21 is positive
-W- Stock has bottomed out and started making positive price structure
- Above all major EMA on D, in W, crossing 100EMA with good VOL
- Parameters positive on D & W
- Volume have started to increase
- Breakout and close above 60-62 on closing basis with good volume will validate
- Can initiate buy at lower trendline if makes bullish candle
- 100EMA and Resistance confluence
📚Trading Lesson. Triangle Types & How to Read Them📚
Triangle is a classic price action pattern that is applied by technical analysts to make predictions trading different financial markets.
Depending on the shape of the triangle, there are three main variations of this pattern.
Its meaning changes dramatically from one to another so it is crucially important for you to know the difference.
👉 The symmetrical triangle is determined by two contracting trend lines.
The pattern is considered to be indecisive meaning that while the market is stuck within, the directional bias is unknown.
Only the breakout of a boundary of a triangle clarifies the future direction.
👉 In contrast, the ascending triangle (also called a bullish accumulation) is a classic example of a bullish biased pattern.
With a horizontal trend line serving as resistance and a rising trend line service as support, the market is accumulating volumes for a bullish breakout.
Once the horizontal resistance is broken, bullish continuation follows.
👉 The descending triangle is a bearish biased pattern. Also called a bearish accumulation, the pattern indicates the preparation of the market participants to set a new low after consolidation and contraction within a triangle.
Once the horizontal support is broken, bearish continuation follows.
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Multiple Trendlines Confluence in ONGC Weekly ChartONGC weekly chart is exhibiting confluence of three different trendlines:
1. An upward sloping trendline from Nov'20
2. A downward sloping trendline from Jan'18
3. The horizontal trendline at 120 price range
The price is is a super interesting place and we will be watching where the it will go from here, ready to bring out our ammo, whether it breaks up or down.
How to use Anchored VWAPAn Anchored VWAP (Anchored - Volume weighted Average Price) lets you make up an idea on whether the control of the market is on side of bulls or bears. Like the traditional VWAP, it incorporates price and volume in a weighted average and can be used to identify areas of support and resistance on the chart. Just like in intraday setup, a traditional VWAP lets you gauge the control of bulls or bears on the price after the opening of the day, the Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) tells you the control of bulls or bears with respect to an important day in the past over daily or weekly chart. In other words, an AVWAP indicator ties VWAP calculations to a specific price bar chosen by the trader.
In a price reversal from the previous swing high or low, an A-VWAP tells us a general idea about the long-term (or short term based on the Anchor date) support or resistance or the price. In the attached TV screen, A-VWAP is applied over BankNifty futures (current contract in front). Here we can see that the price has taken reversals multiple times from the AVWAP.
CONFLUENCE TRADING | YOUR KEY TO ACCURATE ENTRIES 🥇
If you are struggling with the identification of accurate trading entries,
you definitely should try confluence zones .
Note: there are hundreds of variations of confluence elements.
In this example, we will discuss trend lines and Fibonacci.
❗️To identify a confluence zone, the price must follow a trend line
(it should match higher lows if the market is bullish;
it should match lower highs if the market is bearish).
Once the trend line is confirmed by at least two touches and consequent reactions ,
you can look for a confluence zone.
1️⃣Project a trend line and identify the next POTENTIAL touchpoint of the market with a trend line.
2️⃣Take the last impulse in the direction of the trend.
Draw a fib retracement based on it
(swing low to swing high in case if the market is bullish,
swing high to swing low in case if the market is bearish).
3️⃣Take the previous impulse (it must be in the same direction as the initial one).
Draw a fib retracement based on it.
4️⃣Look for a match of retracement levels of the last two impulses and a projected trend line.
In case if two retracement fib.levels & trend line match, you found a confluence point.
5️⃣ Apply it as a safe entry point.
You will get a perfect trend following opportunity.
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Heikin Ashi Charts vs. Candlestick ChartsFollowing price action is at the core of markets. One glance at a chart can show you a trend, trade idea, or serve as a quick way to check the holdings in your portfolio.
Candlestick charts are one of the most popular ways to look at price action. A single candlestick shows the high, low, open, and close for a specific time period. This means that a lot of price information is stored in a single candlestick . However, sometimes, that price information is filled with volatility or chaotic trading.
That's where Heikin Ashi charts are most useful - they smooth out the price by showing an average price range rather than the exact measurements. In fact, Heikin Ashi charts were developed in Japan and the word Heikin means “average” in Japanese . For those who invest over long-term horizons or look for sustainable trends, Heikin Ashi charts can be an effective way to smooth out price and show clearer trends.
The key to understanding Heikin-Ashi charts is to remember that each bar, whether it's red or green, shows an average price range for a specific time period whereas a candlestick chart shows the exact price levels for that time period.
The formula for a Heikin Ashi looks like this:
Open = (Previous bar open + previous bar close) / 2
Close = (Open + High + Low + Close) / 4
High = Highest point whether it's the open, high, low or close
Low = Lowest point whether it's the open, high, low or close
Make sure to test out these two different chart types and have some fun. There is no better way to learn than to compare and contrast the two types of charts as we are doing in this example. Remember, it is also about your personal preference. Do you want to see every granular detail in price action? Or do you want to see an average price of that trading action? This is entirely up to you and the tools are here for you to try.
NOTE
While Heikin Ashi and other non-standard charts can be useful to analyze markets, they should not be used to backtest strategies or issue trade orders, as their prices are synthetic and do not reflect bid/ask levels at exchanges or brokers. If you need more information to understand why that is, have a look at these publications:
• In the Help Center: Strategy produces unrealistic results on non-standard chart types (Heikin Ashi, Renko, etc.)
• From PineCoders: Backtesting on Non-Standard Charts: Caution!
Thanks for reading and please leave any comments or questions if you have them!
Comment : P.S.
Someone asked how they can select Heikin Ashi. Click the dropdown at the top of your chart where it currently shows either your Candlestick or Line chart options. Then select Heikin Ashi from the dropdown menu.
How to Draw Fibonacci Channels
Fibonacci Channels are used to determine fibonacci support and resistance levels within an identified trend.
These channels can easily be drawn in both uptrends or downtrends to find potential areas where price action could change.
Uptrend
When drawing a Fibonacci Channel on an uptrend, a clearly identified trend needs to be established with higher lows being created.
To draw the channel, first select the two low points on the trend, and then the high point in-between them.
After the channel is drawn, the Fibonacci levels calculated can be used to help speculate price action by watching these areas as support or resistance.
Downtrend
When drawing a Fibonacci Channel on a downtrend, a clearly identified trend needs to be established with lower highs being created.
To draw the channel, first select the two high points determined by the trend, and then the low point in-between them as shown below.
Do you use Fib Channels?
If so, share your ideas in the comments below!
Parallel Channel- A great tool for Identifying Trends
A parallel channel which can also be termed as a price channel is a tool to identify a share’s price in bounded parallel lines. It can be horizontal, ascending or descending. It’s a great tool for those traders who believe or trades with the idea of Price action.
A parallel channel can be formed when the price of a security is restricted by supply and demand and can be upward, downward or sideways trending. It shows the trend on which the security might be headed towards or on the verge of breaking it to reverse its direction. It can occur on various time frames and can be created on various instruments like stock, mutual funds, ETFs etc.
The two parallel lines act just like the Resistance and Support. The upper line acts like the Resistance and the lower line acts like Support. A lower trendline is when the price pivots higher, and an upper trendline when the price pivots lower. The steepness of the parallel lines decides the direction of the price it moves.
Ascending channel will be bounded by positive lines indicating that the price is trending higher with each closing of the bar. Likewise, a breakdown of the lower line means that price has moved significantly and now it will see some profit booking and makes a good opportunity for profit booking.
Descending channel indicates that price is trending lower with each bar it is forming. Whereas a breakout of the upper channel conveys that the trend has changed and now the price will move upwards.
As in this example of Axis Bank Daily chart, you could see a Descending Parallel channel which did retrace to its lower price channel and that makes it a good entry point after which it broke the upper channel with good volume confirming its upwards rally.