Get started

Tripletop

Intraday Real Trade: Price Volume AnalysisHi guys, what a day. I had to wait till afternoon for the short opprtunities. The patience really paid. I had three nice trades and I would like to share one special trade in UPL. Price Volume Analysis It opened with a gap down and made a spike low (see A). Later it broke that low and formed two more spikes with larger volumes, clear indication of some buying power. Buyer had a nice rally to retest day's high but soon seller came back (see B). After that, the stock struggled nearly 2 hours to breach the day's high. At this point I was expecting the break of high where price action gets into the gap zone and make some bearish signal (a fake breakout), that would have been my trigger for short entry. Unfortunately that didn't happened. But the overall market was breaking down and UPL, a weak stock, was standing still. That was alarming. It made a small last attempt to go higher but failed. Some people would call it triple top, well that's in intraday so not that important. But failures are important. The Trigger And then came the trigger which is not visible in this chart but is there in the 5min. chart or lower (will be posted in the update). It was a huge spiking volume with no real progress on 5min chart (the candle closed green with a very small range). It alerted me that if the price heads lower, that would mean that sellers will surely take control (of course the overall downtrend gave additional fire to the idea). The triggered forced me to take the short trade at 745.80. It was a quick sell-off afterwards, which took it to my conservative target of 739.20. It was a nice 1% down move caught later in the day. I could have made more but time constraint kept me conservative. Its always good to combine intraday trades with your swing trades. I hope I was able to throw some light upon the chosen topic. Your likes are important, so keep hitting. Trade safe Learn from wins & losses to better plan for the future Regards Bravo
NSE:UPL
by Bravetotrade
13
GANN, ELLIOT and THE TOPPING PATTERNSI always love to trade such a chart but on 5 min. time frame :) Not possible ?? Yes, its possible.. but we will discuss on this topic later in some other post. CORRECTIONS and the ELLIOT COUNT: In this chart I can see three major correction. Each one having a different topping pattern. The first correction has a Rising Wedge; the second has Triple Top and the third one has Gramophone pattern at the top. The first correction eroded more than 61.8% of the last bull market. I consider this as the major correction. There was a nice base building near 2253 level, I call this as Base 1 or the end of Major corrective Wave 2. So Base 1 is now the Zero point of the Major Wave 3 strating @ 2253. The Second and third corrections (I-II and III-IV) were nearly 38.2% and 50% resp. of their last bull moves. I call these as intermediate corrections inside the Major Wave 3. I call end of Wave II as Base 2 @ 4531 and end of Wave IV as Base III at 6826 According to this count we are currently in Wave V of Major Wave 3. GANN: the Projection Factory Gann saw the price moves in 1/8's. According to him these areas can act as important S/R levels. I am using this hypothesis but in opposite direction, that is to project the price from the base. For convenience and on the basis of the Nifty harmonics I am marking only two of these levels -- the Quad and the Octave. The Quad level projection from Base 1 comes at 6204. Market made a Triple Top Pattern near 6338 and entered in to an intermediate bear phase which corrected more than 38.2% of the move from Base 1. Notice that this Quad also coincided with the top of last bull market. The Quad projection from Base 2 comes at 8926. The Gramophone pattern shown in the chart ended at 9119 followed by an intermediate bear phase which corrected 50% of the move from Base 2. Currently we are near the Octave end of the Base 1 at 10155. Which theoretically suggests that because a full Octave completes near this level, it should be followed by a "major" correction. I would like to assert here that so far there are two beautiful evidence of strong market vibrations near Quads, I don't have any evidence of market vibrations at the octaves on this daily chart. So the market reaction near current Base 1 Octave will only add to my experience. Due to aforementioned reason, I am left to rely upon the Elliot market structure and the price action. Both of them suggest that the next intermediate correction, set aside the major correction, on this chart may not be a possibility in the near term. However a short term correction may follow up to 9000 to 9100. Future Projections Gann projections from 6826 (Base 3) should give target for Elliot Wave V. Now you must be curious about the level..aren't you? Ok, the Level is 16000..Surprised? me too. But this level may take some years to get achieved. In between we may have corrections, which will look like minor/short term corrections on this chart but may erode 50% of their respective last short term up moves. Personal Views: On a personal note, I am not happy with Base 3. In Base 1 and 2 we had more than 61.8% correction from the top of automatic rallies from the Base points, which I may easily label as retest attempts. In Base 3, it corrected only 50% and base formation was very quick. These factors project the Gann target too high for Wave V. > I think a short term top is in the making > Short term correction may take the index to 9100 to 9000 > I would still stick to my July 18 post NIFTY ANALYSIS for Wave V projections. > Readers can have their own differing opinions, which I always respect. Hit Like/ Comment if you find this post useful. Trade safe, be healthy. Regards Bravetotrade
NSE:NIFTY
by Bravetotrade
31