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Wave Analysis

IOC 1 Month Time Frame 📊 Current Context IOC is trading around the ₹166–₹168 range as of mid‑December 2025. Over the last month, the stock has seen a slight decline (~‑2.7% to ‑3.6% depending on source). 🟢 Key 1‑Month Support Levels These are levels where the price may find buying interest if the stock pulls back: ✅ Primary Support: ~₹164–₹162 ➡️ Near recent lows and pivot zone where short‑term buyers could step in. ✅ Lower Support: ~₹160–₹158 ➡️ Broader support band from slight chart congestion. ⚠️ Deep Support: ~₹138–₹135 ➡️ A deeper correction zone identified by longer‑term indicators — likely only relevant if broader markets turn very weak. 🔴 Key 1‑Month Resistance Levels These are price points that may cap upside near‑term: 🚧 Immediate Resistance: ~₹170–₹171 ➡️ Short‑term hurdle around recent highs. 🚧 Next Resistance: ~₹172–₹173 ➡️ Slightly stronger resistance if stock breaks above ₹171. 🚧 Higher Resistance: ~₹176–₹177+ ➡️ Breakout zone toward the upper end of the near‑term range.
NSE:IOCLong
by Knowledgehub
Part 4 Learn Institutional Trading What Is Option Trading? An option is a financial derivative whose value is derived from an underlying asset such as a stock, index, commodity, or currency. Option trading involves buying or selling contracts that give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price within a specified time period. Each option contract has key elements: Underlying asset – Stock, index (NIFTY, BANKNIFTY), commodity, etc. Strike price – The price at which the asset can be bought or sold Expiry date – The date on which the option contract expires Premium – The price paid by the buyer to the seller (writer) of the option Options are traded on exchanges and are standardized in terms of lot size and expiry.
Education
by SkyTradingZone
XAUXAG – Is Silver Getting Stronger Against Gold?GOLD vs SILVER Relative Strength Analysis | Elliott Wave View This chart represents the Gold-to-Silver ratio (XAUXAG). 👉 When XAUXAG goes down, Silver outperforms Gold 👉 When XAUXAG goes up, Gold is stronger than Silver Based on the Elliott Wave structure, XAUXAG appears to be forming a bearish continuation pattern, suggesting a potential stronger move in Silver relative to Gold in the coming weeks. 🔍 XAUXAG Chart Highlights The ratio is currently completing the Wave (iii) of a larger decline and is approaching exhaustion levels. Elliott Wave Structure Wave (i) & (ii) completed Current drop is part of Wave (iii) nearing the end Expecting a corrective Wave (iv) bounce towards: 0.7221 → 0.7421 → 0.7521 – 0.7607 Final Wave (v) downside target zone: 0.6889 → 0.6764 → 0.6564 Translation 📉 If XAUXAG falls → Silver is bullish vs Gold 📈 If XAUXAG rises → Gold strengthens vs Silver 📍 Key Levels to Watch Trend Reversal Confirmation - Bearish Continuation Break above 0.7421 / 0.7521 - Below 0.7046 ratio Break falling trendline => trend shift - Targets 0.6889 → 0.6764 → 0.6564 🧠 Why Silver May Outperform Gold Soon Ratio is forming a final sub-wave of Wave (iii) decline RSI near oversold zone, indicating bullish divergence potential Historically, Silver rallies the strongest after major retracements Industrial & EV demand recoveries benefit Silver more XAUXAG in a large descending channel structure 📈 Expected Scenario If Wave (v) completes in the 0.6889–0.6764–0.6564 zone: Strong Outperformance of Silver Likely 🚀 Potential next cycle could target: Gold consolidates while Silver rallies aggressively Conclusion Yes — Silver may soon become more bullish relative to Gold. The XAUXAG ratio is preparing a possible major bearish leg continuation, which historically leads to strong upward moves in Silver compared to Gold. ⚠️ Risk Management Invalidation if ratio breaks above 0.7607 with strength Watch price action near highlighted boxes 💬 Community Question Comment “Silver Strength 🚀” if you expect the ratio to break lower soon. 📌 Disclaimer Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.
OANDA:XAUXAG
by kacraj
2
IDEA 1 Day Time Frame 📌 Current Price (Daily) ₹11.27–₹11.30 approx (trading near this level today) 📈 Daily Support & Resistance Levels (1-Day Time Frame) 🚀 Immediate Resistance R1: ~₹11.44 — first resistance level for today R2: ~₹11.64 — mid-term breakout zone R3: ~₹11.81–₹11.85 — higher resistance, break above signals strength Major Horizontal Resistance: ~₹11.80-₹12.00 — past multiple rejections zone 📉 Immediate Support S1: ~₹11.07 — first line of support intraday S2: ~₹10.90 — short-term support band S3: ~₹10.70 — deeper support for stronger pullbacks 💡 Quick Summary (1-Day) Level Type Price Resistance 3 ~₹11.81 – ₹11.85 Resistance 2 ~₹11.64 Resistance 1 ~₹11.44 Current ~₹11.27 – ₹11.30 Support 1 ~₹11.07 Support 2 ~₹10.90 Support 3 ~₹10.70
NSE:IDEALong
by Knowledgehub
Gold 1H – Fed Chair Speculation Drives Smart Money Flow🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (16/12) 📈 Market Context Gold is trading in a liquidity-driven range as markets focus on today’s hot topic: NFP expectations and Fed rate-path uncertainty. Recent NFP previews highlight divergence between slowing headline job growth and still-sticky wage components, keeping DXY flows unstable. This environment typically favors stop-hunts and liquidity sweeps rather than clean directional moves ahead of confirmation. As a result, Smart Money is likely to engineer price into clear premium and discount zones before committing to expansion. 🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (1H) Current Phase: Post-expansion, consolidating after a CHoCH within a broader bullish context Key Idea: Expect a sweep into premium (4352–4354) or discount (4272–4270) before the next impulsive move Structural Notes: • Higher-timeframe BOS keeps bullish bias intact • Recent pullback reflects distribution/profit-taking, not a confirmed reversal • Equal highs above 4350 and sell-side liquidity below 4270 are clearly exposed Liquidity Zones & Triggers: • 🔴 SELL GOLD 4352 – 4354 | SL 4362 • 🟢 BUY GOLD 4272 – 4270 | SL 4262 Institutional Flow Expectation: sweep → MSS / CHoCH → BOS → displacement → FVG / OB retest → expansion 🎯 Execution Rules (matching your exact zones) 🔴 SELL GOLD 4352 – 4354 | SL 4362 Rules: ✔ Liquidity sweep above recent highs into premium ✔ Bearish MSS / CHoCH on M5–M15 ✔ Downside BOS with strong bearish displacement ✔ Entry via bearish FVG refill or refined supply OB Targets: 1. 4325 2. 4300 3. 4285 – extension if momentum accelerates 🟢 BUY GOLD 4272 – 4270 | SL 4262 Rules: ✔ Liquidity grab below equal lows / dynamic support ✔ Bullish MSS / CHoCH confirms demand takeover ✔ Upside BOS with impulsive displacement ✔ Entry via bullish FVG fill or demand OB retest Targets: 1. 4285 2. 4310 3. 4350 – extension if USD weakens post-data ⚠️ Risk Notes • NFP-related positioning can cause false breaks — wait for structure, not the first spike • Avoid trades without clear MSS + BOS confirmation • Expect higher spreads and volatility during the U.S. session • Reduce risk if entering close to major data releases 📍 Summary Today’s gold setup is defined by NFP-driven rate uncertainty: • A sweep into 4354 may invite bearish structure back toward 4300–4285 or • A liquidity grab near 4270 could reload bullish flow toward 4310–4350 Let structure confirm — Smart Money reacts, retail anticipates. ⚡️ 📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money gold breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
1
PEL : Golden Retracement • Demand Reaction • Risk-Defined Trade📊 PRIMAL ENTERPRISES | 2H STRUCTURE-BASED SWING SETUP Golden Retracement | Demand Reaction | Risk-Defined Trade 📌 Chart Context & Market Structure Price has completed a strong impulsive decline from the prior swing high and is now reacting from the Golden Retracement Zone (Fib 50%–78%), which historically acts as a decision area between trend continuation and deeper correction. This zone also overlaps with a higher timeframe demand pocket, increasing its technical significance. Key observations from the chart: Strong bearish impulse followed by slowing downside momentum Price testing Fib 50%–78% retracement → value re-assessment zone Clear invalidation level marked via hourly close below demand 🔍 Why This Zone Matters (Educational Insight) 📌 The golden retracement zone represents an area where: Smart money evaluates whether the prior trend is still valid Late sellers get absorbed by institutional demand Failed demand here often leads to accelerated downside due to liquidity vacuum If buyers defend this zone, price usually transitions into a corrective → impulsive recovery. If demand fails, price seeks the next high-liquidity support below. 📈 Bullish Projection (Primary Scenario) If price: Holds above the golden retracement zone Forms higher lows on lower timeframes Shows acceptance above the immediate resistance ➡️ Expect a structural recovery phase. Upside Path (Projection): Near-term resistance breakout → momentum pickup Sustained move above 1,237 confirms strength Swing expansion toward 1,274 – 1,289 zone This aligns with a mean-reversion + trend resumption structure. 📉 Bearish Risk Scenario (If Demand Fails) If price: Fails to attract buying interest within Fib 50%–78% Breaks demand with an hourly close below 1,082 📌 It signals demand exhaustion and breakdown of value perception, increasing the probability of a deeper corrective leg toward the next higher-timeframe demand zone below. This is why risk is clearly defined, not assumed. 🎯 Trade Strategy (Educational, Not Advisory) Bullish Swing Strategy: Entry: Demand hold + bullish structure confirmation Stop Loss: Hourly close below 1,082 Targets: Partial near resistance → Swing target 1,274 – 1,289 Risk Management Logic: Trade is invalid if demand fails — no hope-based holding Position sizing based on SL distance Patience required; no chasing breakouts 🧠 Key Learning Takeaway 📌 When price reacts at the golden retracement: Acceptance = trend continuation Rejection = deeper correction The goal is not prediction — it is preparing for both outcomes with clarity and discipline. 🧾 Conclusion This setup offers: Clear structure Defined risk Favorable risk-reward if demand holds Let price confirm. Let structure guide. Let risk stay controlled. ⚠️ Disclaimer I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please conduct your own analysis or consult a qualified financial advisor before taking any trades.
BSE:PELLong
by LiveTradingBox
NBCC (India) – Wave 3 Setup Backed by Strong Project PipelineAfter completing a textbook 5-wave advance into 130.70 , where Wave 5 aligned exactly with the 2.618 extension of Wave 1 projected from Wave 4, NBCC corrected into 98. That low now marks a clean green Wave 2. The recent bounce to 117.20 formed Wave 1 of a higher-degree Wave 3. Price has retraced into the 104–105 zone (0.618 Fib) with visible volume expansion, suggesting accumulation. Invalidation/SL sits at 98 , making risk well-defined. Breakout above 117.20 opens the path toward 130.70+ and potentially much higher, in line with the 2.618 Fib target around 130.65. Fundamentals in Brief Market cap: ₹295.9B P/E ratio: ~50.8, indicating premium valuation but supported by steady order book growth. Revenue (FY24): ~₹115.9B, with Project Management Consultancy (PMC) as the major contributor. Debt: Effectively zero – NBCC runs a net cash balance sheet, giving it flexibility. Dividend yield (TTM): ~0.8% – small, but consistent payouts. Margins: Net margin steady around 5–6%. NBCC’s fundamentals support its technical setup: low leverage, steady revenues, and government backing in project management give confidence that the bullish Elliott Wave count has room to play out. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:NBCCLong
by WaveXplorer
XAUUSD – 15M | SMC-Based Trade PlanGold is currently in a corrective phase after a strong impulsive move to the upside. Price has delivered a clear displacement, followed by a pullback into a refined demand zone, highlighted on the chart. This area aligns with prior bullish order flow and acts as a discount zone within the higher-timeframe range. The current sell-off appears corrective, not impulsive. Expectation is for price to mitigate demand, sweep weak lows if needed, and then resume the primary bullish structure. Execution Plan (Important): ➡ No blind entries. ➡ Entry will be taken only if LTF confirms bullish intent (CHoCH, BOS, displacement from demand).
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by YCGH_Capital
1
S&P 500: Positioned for a Santa Rally?While tracking the global markets — especially the US indices — one thing stood out clearly. The rally from 6521.92 to 6895.78 unfolded as a clean impulsive move , not a corrective grind. That structural behavior is what made me treat this leg as an impulsive rally (Wave 1/A) rather than just another bounce. Since then, price action has cooled into a Wave 2/B reset , pulling back towards key Fibonacci retracement pocket . Structurally, this looks more like a pause before continuation than the start of a larger breakdown. From a broader sentiment perspective, the backdrop remains supportive. The Fed’s recent rate cut continues to favor risk assets, NVIDIA’s staggering earnings have reinforced confidence in the AI-led growth narrative, and the CBOE Volatility Index remaining subdued suggests markets are not in a fear-driven regime. So… will Santa deliver a rally — or even deliver early? At the moment, the market appears to be positioning itself towards key Fibonacci retracement levels , creating a favorable setup for a potential Santa rally . If the structure holds, Wave 3/C could be the move where Santa shows up with the goods. And if the US index does start unwrapping a rally, history suggests Indian markets rarely stay on the sidelines — definitely something to keep on the radar. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
SP:SPXLong
by WaveXplorer
Nifty further correction?NIFTY – Post-Diagonal Price Behaviour (Daily) After completing a terminal structure, NIFTY has moved into a corrective phase, which is evident from the current overlapping and range-bound price action. Such behaviour is typical once momentum exhausts near the upper boundary. The ongoing retracements suggest that the correction is still evolving, and price has not yet reached a point of structural clarity. At this stage, multiple corrective paths remain open, and directional conviction would be premature. It is advisable to focus on risk management and confirmation, rather than anticipation, until price resolves this phase.Please like this post if it helps you.follow me to get updates
NSE:NIFTY
by bijoy2526
BSE: Wave B Topped, C-Wave Path in FocusContext BSE looks like it topped out at Wave B, and the price action since then is starting to align with a fresh downside leg. Wave Count View Wave A completed in five waves with extended wave 3, Wave B retraced as a controlled three, and the drop from 2960 fits the profile of a leading diagonal for Wave 1 of C. Bearish Case As long as 2960 holds, the bias stays firmly on the downside. A proper C-wave should unfold in five legs, and the early structure is already pointing that way. Conclusion Momentum favours the bearish interpretation unless the invalidation level is violated. Wave 2 will tell us whether the market wants to continue this decline or flip the script. Disclaimer: Edu Only. DYOR.
NSE:BSEShort
by WaveXplorer
BANKNIFTY : Trading levels and Plan for 17-Dec-2025📘 BANK NIFTY Trading Plan for 17-Dec-2025 Key reference levels (from chart): Opening Resistance: 59,173 Last Intraday Resistance: 59,257 Major Upside Level: 59,416 Opening Support Zone: 58,958 – 59,043 Last Intraday Support (Buyers Must Try): 58,592 – 58,712 Gap consideration: 200+ points 🟢 1. GAP-UP OPENING (200+ points) If Bank Nifty opens above 59,173, it directly enters the supply region, where sellers may attempt profit-booking. 🎓 Educational Explanation: A large gap-up suggests overnight optimism. However, immediate breakout trades are risky because: Early buyers may exit at resistance Liquidity is low in the first few minutes Pullback to retest breakout levels is common Professional traders always wait for structure confirmation, not emotion-driven entries. Plan of Action: Above 59,173, wait for a retest and a bullish candle before considering long entries. Next target becomes 59,257. Watch for reactions here—this is a key supply zone. Clear breakout above 59,257 with volume may extend toward 59,416. Price rejection at 59,257 can create a good pullback trade back toward 59,173. Option buyers should avoid chasing CE at resistance; wait for dips near retest zones. 🟡 2. FLAT OPENING A flat open near 59,066 – 59,100 brings Bank Nifty inside the equilibrium zone, where market direction is decided after observing the early order flow. 🎓 Educational Explanation: In a flat open, price is not influenced by gap sentiment. This is where Opening Range (ORH/ORL) becomes extremely important. Breakout of ORH = trend strength Breakdown of ORL = weakness Avoid guessing direction — let structure form first. Plan of Action: If price sustains above 59,100–59,173, buyers may gain control, targeting 59,257. Rejection from 59,173 can send price back into the Opening Support Zone (58,958–59,043). If price dips into support and forms bullish rejection (pin bar / engulfing), it becomes a high-probability bounce zone. Breakdown below 58,958 opens the path to 58,592 – 58,712 support. 🔴 3. GAP-DOWN OPENING (200+ points) If Bank Nifty opens below 58,900, we enter the fear-zone where sellers may dominate early. 🎓 Educational Explanation: Gap-downs typically trigger panic selling, but smart traders avoid shorting at the open. Why? Market often gives a mean reversion bounce Weak sellers exhaust quickly Reversal from strong support zones is common Patience > Speed. Plan of Action: First reaction zone: 58,712 – 58,592 (Buyers Must Try) — watch for reversal candles. If price holds here, expect a recovery back to 58,958–59,043. Breakdown below 58,592 with strong follow-through = trending bearish session. Avoid catching falling knives. Any pullback toward 58,712 after breakdown becomes a safe shorting opportunity for option sellers. ⚙️ Risk Management Tips for Option Traders 🛡️ Never buy options within resistance zones—wait for breakout + retest. For gap openings, avoid trading the first 5–10 minutes; volatility is unnatural. Keep SL based on structure, not emotions. Use time-based stop-loss: If your option premium doesn’t move for 15–20 min, exit. Follow the 1–2% capital rule per trade. Track IV during gap days—high IV inflates premiums; avoid chasing far OTM options. 🧾 Summary & Conclusion Gap-Up: Watch 59,173 → 59,257 → 59,416. Avoid chasing; trade break–retest. Flat Open: Opening Range decides trend; 58,958–59,043 remains the key support. Gap-Down: Buyers must watch 58,592–58,712 for reversal setups. Breakdown brings deeper weakness. Successful trading comes from confirmation-based entries, risk control, and not trading emotional spikes. ⚠️ Disclaimer I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any market positions.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by LiveTradingBox
NIFTY : Trading levels and Plan for 17-Dec-2025📘 NIFTY Trading Plan for 17-Dec-2025 (Based on key levels: 25,953 – 26,011 – 26,111 (resistances) and 25,874 – 25,747 – 25,771 – 25,647 (supports)) Gap criteria considered: 100+ points 🔵 1. GAP-UP OPENING (100+ Points) If NIFTY opens above 25,953, it directly enters the resistance territory visible on the chart, where the market often tests supply zones. 🔍 Educational Logic: When the index opens significantly higher, early buyers from the previous session tend to book profits. Hence the market may retest the breakout zone before showing a directional move. Understanding this behaviour prevents traders from chasing breakouts blindly. Plan of Action: If price opens above 25,953 and sustains for 15-min, look for long entries toward 26,011. If 26,011 breaks with volume, expect a momentum push toward 26,111, the major intraday resistance. A rejection wick or bearish Engulfing pattern at 26,011 = ideal for a small pullback trade back to 25,953. For option buyers: Prefer CE entries only after a retest & confirmation; avoid buying at resistance. 🟠 2. FLAT OPENING A flat open near the 25,874–25,880 zone places NIFTY exactly at the Opening Support/Resistance line. 🔍 Educational Logic: Here the market is neutral, and the first 30 minutes typically decide the trend. The concept of "Opening Range" becomes very important—break of ORH/ORL gives a cleaner directional move. Avoid predicting the direction—wait for confirmation. Plan of Action: If price holds above 25,874, buyers may take charge and lead a move toward 25,953. A breakout above 25,953 can extend quickly toward 26,011. If NIFTY slips below 25,851, that becomes a weak sign → expect a move toward 25,771–25,747 support zone. Watch for bullish reversal candle at 25,747–25,771 (buyers must try zone). 🔴 3. GAP-DOWN OPENING (100+ Points) If NIFTY opens below 25,771, we enter a sentiment-driven weak zone. 🔍 Educational Logic: Large gap-downs often occur due to overnight negative cues. The initial volatility is usually created by fear-based reactions. A structured trader waits for stability before entering. Many reversals also begin after a gap-down because early sellers exhaust quickly. Plan of Action: First support comes at 25,747–25,771 — monitor for a reversal setup. If price fails to hold this zone, next downside target becomes 25,647, the major support. A break below 25,647 with strong candles = trending bearish day; avoid bottom-fishing. If reversal occurs near 25,747, expect a recovery toward 25,851 and later 25,874. ⚙️ Risk Management Tips for Option Traders 📌 These principles protect your capital and sustain long-term trading: Never buy options at major resistance or support — wait for confirmation. Follow time-stop: if your option doesn't move in 15–20 minutes despite the index moving, exit. Maintain a fixed risk: reward of at least 1:2 on every directional trade. Avoid trading in the first 5 minutes during 100+ point gaps — volatility is artificially high. Define your loss level before entering; never widen your SL emotionally. Scale-in only after the trade moves in your favour, not before. 🧾 Summary & Conclusion A Gap-Up above 25,953 demands patience for a retest before long entries. A Flat Open near 25,874 is a neutral scenario — rely on Opening Range breakout. A Gap-Down below 25,771 invites caution; watch for reversal patterns at support zones. Market structure is more important than prediction. Stick to confirmation-based entries and disciplined exits. For option buyers, momentum zones and retest confirmations are crucial for high-quality trades. ⚠️ Disclaimer I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This trading plan is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making trading decisions.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by LiveTradingBox
NAS100 Preparing for Wave 3 Rally After Healthy PullbackThe NAS100 chart shows that a larger corrective move has likely finished at the (Y) / C low, after which price started a new upward impulsive structure. The recent decline looks like a normal Wave 2 pullback, which has already reacted from the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci support zone, a common area for corrections to end. This suggests buyers are stepping back in and the market is preparing for Wave 3, which is usually the strongest upward move. As long as price stays above the invalidation level near 23,836, the bullish Elliott Wave setup remains valid. Overall, the structure favors further upside toward new highs once Wave 3 gains momentum. Stay tuned! @Money_Dictators Thank you :)
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Money_Dictators
Clean Trendline Respect on Weekly Chart – 500 DaysPattern Context Price has been respecting a well-defined descending trendline on the weekly timeframe, with each rally stalling below the previous swing high and reinforcing the broader lower‑high, lower‑low sequence. Candlestick Behavior Showing how supply continues to respond at the same diagonal zone. This reaction visually confirms how aggressively the market has been defending the pattern’s upper boundary without implying what comes next, keeping the focus strictly on how price has behaved historically around this line. Observational Takeaway This chart serves as a clear example of how a simple, clean trendline can organize price behavior over multiple months and frame where participation repeatedly shifts. The emphasis here is on observing how consistently the structure has been respected and how each touch has shaped the ongoing sequence, allowing traders to study price interaction with a dominant trend rather than anticipate future outcomes. Disclaimer This post is for educational and informational purposes only and is not investment advice, stock tips, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers should do their own research, consider their personal risk tolerance, and consult a registered financial professional if needed before making any trading or investment decisions.
NSE:EXICOMLong
by Averoy_Apoorv_Analysis
1
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – December 16, 2025 1. Momentum D1 (Daily): Daily momentum is showing signs of a bearish reversal. However, we must wait for today’s D1 candle to close to confirm this signal. This is a critical confirmation, as it will determine whether the market has formed a medium-term top. H4: H4 momentum is currently in the oversold zone and is preparing for a bullish reversal. Once confirmed, we can expect a technical rebound lasting approximately 4–5 H4 candles. H1: H1 momentum remains bearish and is moving toward the oversold area. We will wait for price to reach oversold conditions and for momentum to confirm a bullish reversal, which would signal a short-term H1 corrective rally. --- 2. Elliott Wave Structure D1: With D1 momentum turning down, if today’s daily candle confirms the reversal, price is likely forming the top of the purple wave X. After wave X completes, the market may enter purple wave Y, which is most likely developing as a Flat correction. → The projected target for wave Y is near the 3888 zone. H4: Price is currently trading within green wave 5. Once this wave 5 completes, it will also mark the completion of wave C and wave X on the higher timeframe. Given that H4 momentum is oversold, a short-term upward move is expected before the broader structure completes. H1: The current decline is likely forming a red 1–2–3–4–5 structure within green wave 5. At this stage, price is developing red wave 4. This red wave 4 is unfolding as a Flat corrective structure, consistent with the scenario outlined in yesterday’s plan. Target for red wave C: around 4260 Above this level, 4274 represents a high-liquidity / low-liquidity boundary Therefore, when price reaches the 4260–4274 zone, we will combine this area with H1 momentum bullish confirmation to look for long entries. Expected targets for red wave 5: Target 1: 4365 Target 2: 4393 3. Key Notes As discussed in previous plans, the recent rebound did not reach the 4353 level. This does not invalidate the scenario in which green wave 5 completes near this area (refer to the weekly plan). Therefore, if: D1 momentum confirms a bearish reversal at today’s close, and The upcoming H4 rebound fails to break above 4353, → We must be prepared for the scenario in which purple wave Y on the D1 timeframe has already begun. 4. Trading Plan Buy Zone: 4261 – 4259 Stop Loss: 4240 Take Profit 1: 4286 Take Profit 2: 4319 Take Profit 3: 4365
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
Gold 1H – NFP in Control: 4355 Cap or 4260 Hold?🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (16/12) 📈 Market Context Gold is trading inside a high-volatility liquidity environment as markets digest the NFP Preview: Rate Path Divergence & Implications for DXY and Gold. With the upcoming U.S. labor data set to shape expectations for the Fed’s 2026 rate path, USD flows remain unstable. Any surprise in employment or wage components could trigger sharp repricing in rate-cut expectations, directly impacting gold through DXY volatility. In this context, institutions are unlikely to commit direction early. Instead, liquidity engineering and stop-hunts around key premium/discount zones are favored ahead of true displacement. 🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (1H) Current Phase: Post-expansion, now rotating inside a rising channel and pausing near equilibrium Key Idea: Expect a liquidity sweep into premium (4353–4355) or discount (4262–4260) before the next impulsive move Structural Notes: • Prior BOS confirms bullish higher-timeframe context • Recent pullback signals profit-taking, not full reversal • Equal highs above 4350 and sell-side liquidity below 4260 are clearly exposed Liquidity Zones & Triggers: • 🔴 SELL GOLD 4353 – 4355 | SL 4363 • 🟢 BUY GOLD 4262 – 4260 | SL 4272 Institutional Flow Expectation: sweep → MSS / CHoCH → BOS → displacement → FVG / OB retest → expansion 🎯 Execution Rules (matching your exact zones) 🔴 SELL GOLD 4353 – 4355 | SL 4363 Rules: ✔ Liquidity sweep above recent highs into premium ✔ Bearish MSS / CHoCH on M5–M15 ✔ Downside BOS with strong bearish displacement ✔ Entry via bearish FVG refill or refined supply OB Targets: 1. 4325 2. 4300 3. 4285 – extension if momentum accelerates 🟢 BUY GOLD 4262 – 4260 | SL 4272 Rules: ✔ Liquidity grab below equal lows / channel support ✔ Bullish MSS / CHoCH confirms demand takeover ✔ Upside BOS with impulsive displacement ✔ Entry via bullish FVG fill or demand OB retest Targets: 1. 4280 2. 4310 3. 4350 – extension if USD weakens post-data ⚠️ Risk Notes • NFP-related positioning can cause false breaks — wait for structure, not the first spike • Avoid trades without clear MSS + BOS confirmation • Expect spreads and volatility to expand during U.S. sessions • Reduce risk if entering close to news releases 📍 Summary Today’s gold narrative is driven by NFP-led rate path uncertainty: • A sweep into 4355 may invite bearish structure back toward 4300–4285 or • A liquidity grab near 4260 could reload bullish flow toward 4310–4350 Let structure confirm — Smart Money reacts, retail anticipates. ⚡️ 📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money gold breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
S&P 500 – Structural Roadmap & Macro ContextIntroduction The S&P 500 remains one of the most important global risk benchmarks, influencing capital flows, sentiment, and cross-asset behavior. This analysis focuses on the structural and wave-based framework of the index, shared strictly for macro context and market understanding, not for short-term trading or execution. Key Observations 1. Wave Structure (The Roadmap) The index has respected its broader Elliott Wave structure well. The recent dip toward the 6,600 zone appears to have completed the corrective Wave (4) (Blue), aligning precisely with the lower boundary of the rising channel. Price behavior since then suggests the market is transitioning into the early phase of Wave (5) — typically the final bullish leg of the cycle, subject to continued structural validation. On the internal degree, the market appears to have completed a short-term 1–2 setup, with price beginning to initiate a potential Wave 3 extension within Wave (5). 2. Key Support Zones (The Floor) 6,600 – Structural support and Wave (4) low, aligned with channel support Invalidation Level: A daily close below 6,500 would invalidate this specific wave interpretation and require reassessment The bounce from this zone reinforces the bullish structural framework. 3. Key Resistance & Reference Targets 6,925 – 6,985: Immediate resistance zone (previous highs) 7,497: Projection zone for the developing internal wave extension 7,734 – 7,900: Broader reference zone for Wave (5) completion, based on channel and wave projections These levels act as structural reference zones, not execution targets. 4. RSI and Momentum RSI (Daily): ~49.75 Momentum has reset to neutral territory, neither overbought nor exhausted. Historically, such conditions allow room for trend continuation without immediate momentum constraints. 5. My Final View The primary trend remains bullish, with the recent correction appearing mature rather than trend-breaking. View: Structure favors continuation over reversal Approach: Trend-following bias rather than counter-trend positioning Risk Note: Structural validity holds as long as price remains above channel support Disclaimer This analysis is shared strictly for educational and macro-structural purposes. It does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations. Always apply appropriate risk management. #SP500 #SPX #USMarkets #MacroAnalysis #MarketStructure #GlobalMarkets #IntermarketAnalysis #RiskSentiment #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView
VANTAGE:SP500
by kacraj