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Xauusdanalysis

XAUUSD M45: SELL at OB 4.331–4.339, BUY at 4.306–4.3121) Market Context (M45) – SMC & Price Structure The spike up followed by a strong sell-off is a liquidity event (liquidity sweep), creating a clear bearish displacement. After the sell-off, the price is retracing in a pullback/retest manner → prioritize the strategy “SELL retracement at supply zone,” or “BUY reaction at demand zone” if there is a sweep down. 2) Key Levels Liquidity Sell (liquidity peak): 4.367.982 OB Bearish (Sell Zone): 4.331.123 – 4.338.610 Liquidity Support (Demand): 4.312.463 – 4.306.358 Current reference price: ~4.326 (currently in the middle of the range, not an optimal entry point) 3) Trading Plan Scenario A – SELL at OB Bearish (priority) If the price retraces to the 4.331 – 4.339 zone and shows rejection signals: pinbar / shadow downward engulfing or bearish ChoCH on M15–M45 Then prioritize SELL following the retracement in the short-term bearish structure. Reference targets: TP1: 4.312 TP2: 4.306 Invalidation: M45 candle closes firmly above 4.339 and holds → stop the SELL idea. Scenario B – BUY at Liquidity Support (reversal scenario) If the price is pulled down to the 4.312 – 4.306 zone and shows signs of sweep + reclaim (piercing down then closing back up the zone). Upon confirmation, watch for BUY retracement. Reference targets: TP1: 4.331 TP2: 4.339 Note: if the price touches the OB Bearish again without breaking it, prioritize closing and observing the reaction. Scenario C – Sweep up to Liquidity Sell 4.368 then reverse If the price breaks above OB Bearish and continues to run liquidity up to 4.368. The 4.368 zone is suitable for finding a sell reaction (only SELL with confirmation signals). 4) News on 18/12 affecting gold On 18/12, there is US CPI (November): the most impactful news on gold as it directly affects interest rate expectations, yields, and USD. On the same day, there are usually Initial Jobless Claims and activity indicators (e.g., Philly Fed), which can easily create short-term spikes for XAUUSD. After the CPI day, the market often exhibits liquidity sweeps on both ends before choosing a direction → avoid FOMO, prioritize trading at the right zone. 5) Quick Conclusion Short-term bias: prioritize SELL retracement at OB 4.331–4.339 until the price strongly reclaims above. Defensive scenario: BUY reaction at 4.312–4.306 if there is a sweep + confirmation. Avoid entering trades in the middle of the range; wait for “right zone – right signal.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
XAUUSD H1 Main Trend for the Weekend Gold failed to confirm a sustainable upward momentum after yesterday's price reaction, prioritizing a short-term adjustment scenario before reassessing the trend PRIORITY SCENARIO Strategy to sell based on reactions at large volume areas, suitable for the current short-term structure Focus sell area: 4332 – 4342 Technical basis: these are areas concentrated with volume according to the Volume Profile, where price is likely to show distribution reactions after a weak recovery Expected movement: price recovers to the large volume area for distribution, then continues the adjustment phase Daily target: Heading towards the 4275 area, coinciding with the Fibonacci retracement area and underlying support Position management: Sell should only be held short-term. If the price surpasses and stabilizes above 4342, risk should be reduced and avoid holding sell orders. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO Monitor price reactions at deeper support areas to reassess trading opportunities Strong support area: around 4275 Technical context: this is the convergence area between structural support and Fibonacci retracement, likely to show defensive buying force Expected movement: if the price reacts well at this area, the market may enter a re-accumulation state MAIN REASON On H1, the previous upward phase failed to maintain a clear upward structure, indicating weakening buying force Volume Profile helps identify the 4332 – 4342 areas as advantageous entry points for the sell reaction scenario The 4275 area serves as a reasonable adjustment target in the context of a typically momentum-lacking weekend market MACRO CONTEXT AND MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK While short-term fluctuations lean towards adjustment, major institutions still maintain a positive outlook for gold in the medium and long term. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold prices could reach $4,900/oz by the end of 2026, supported by strong buying demand from central banks and positive impacts from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle. This suggests that short-term declines may be more of a technical adjustment rather than a reversal of the long-term trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
2
Liquidity Grab Completed, Waiting for Pullback to ContinueMarket Context Gold has just completed a strong impulsive rally, sweeping buy-side liquidity above the previous highs. After this expansion, price is now entering a short-term consolidation / pullback phase, which is expected behavior following a liquidity grab rather than a full trend reversal. From a fundamental perspective, expectations of a more accommodative Fed stance continue to limit downside pressure on Gold, keeping the broader bias supported despite intraday corrections. Technical Structure (Short-Term) The larger structure remains bullish Recent move shows a liquidity grab at the highs, followed by rejection Current price action suggests rebalancing into demand zones No confirmed bearish market structure shift so far Key Technical Zones Upper Resistance / Sell Reaction: 4,360 – 4,365 Intraday Resistance: 4,333 – 4,336 Buy Zone (Pullback Area): 4,300 – 4,305 Deeper Demand / Liquidity Support: 4,275 – 4,280 Trading Plan – MMF Style Primary Scenario – Buy the Pullback Expect price to retrace into 4,300 – 4,305 or deeper toward 4,280 Look for bullish reaction / stabilization to rejoin the trend Upside targets: TP1: 4,323 TP2: 4,335 TP3: 4,360+ (liquidity) Alternative Scenario If price holds above 4,323 and breaks higher directly, wait for a clean retest before considering continuation setups. Avoid chasing price at premium levels. Invalidation A sustained break and H1 close below 4,275 would weaken the bullish continuation scenario and shift focus to deeper consolidation. Summary Gold remains in a bullish environment, with current weakness viewed as a technical pullback after liquidity grab. Bias remains buy-the-dip, prioritizing patience and confirmation at key demand zones.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
1
XAUUSD (H1) – Friday Weekend Lana prioritizes the adjustment phase towards the POC area, looking to Sell in the liquidity zone 💛 Quick Summary Context: Friday, the market often tends to take profits and sweep liquidity before the week closes Monitoring Frame: H1 Main Viewpoint: Prioritize a decrease during the day (adjustment phase) Key Point to Note: 4308 has reacted multiple times, a sensitive point in the structure Market Context The weekend is usually a time when the cash flow is “lighter” and price behavior tends to lean towards profit-taking. Therefore, an adjustment phase to gain more liquidity is the scenario Lana prioritizes today. From a medium-term perspective, some large institutions still maintain a positive view on gold. However, in intraday trading, Lana still prioritizes following the current price behavior and trading according to the liquidity zone. Technical View H1 On H1, the price is fluctuating around the accumulation zone, and the POC/VAL area indicates this is a market zone that has been “back and forth” for quite a while. When the price returns to these areas, there is usually a clear reaction. The 4308 area is noteworthy because the price has reacted multiple times, so this is a point that could determine whether the adjustment phase continues. Today's Trading Scenario Main Scenario – Sell at POC/VAL area (large liquidity) Sell: 4335 – 4340 Lana prioritizes waiting for the price to rebound to this area to sell according to the adjustment phase. This is a large liquidity zone, suitable for finding a downward reaction during the day. Alternative Scenario – Buy scalping at near support Buy: 4284 – 4289 This Buy order is only for scalping when the price hits the support area and a bounce reaction appears. If the market continues to be weak, Lana will not hold the Buy for too long. Session Notes If the price continues to be rejected around resistance areas and cannot surpass the supply zone, the adjustment scenario will have an advantage. For Friday, Lana prioritizes light trading, quick closing, avoiding holding positions too long over the weekend. Lana's Notes 🌿 Each scenario is just a probability. Lana always sets a stop loss first, chooses the appropriate volume, and is ready to skip if the price does not reach the waiting area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lana_M2
2
XAUUSD – Lana Prefers BUY on Pullbacks to Fibonacci XAUUSD – Lana Prefers BUY on Pullbacks to Fibonacci 💛 Quick Summary Short-term trend: Ongoing bullish continuation Timeframe: H1 Market context: Thin liquidity ahead of the holiday period; price has not yet broken resistance decisively Strategy: Prioritise BUY setups, waiting for a pullback to the 50% Fibonacci level Market Context Gold continues to hold its bullish momentum and is trading close to the all-time high area around 4350 USD/ounce. Although price has not yet fully broken the upper resistance, the overall bullish structure remains intact. Gold’s upside is supported by weaker US labour data, expectations that the Fed may cut rates sooner, and rising geopolitical tensions, particularly concerns related to Venezuela ahead of President Trump’s upcoming speech. With liquidity likely to remain thin due to the holiday period, price action may slow down. However, the primary bias still favours the upside. H1 Technical Outlook On the H1 chart, the bullish structure is well preserved. Price is consolidating just below a strong resistance zone, suggesting the market needs more time to absorb selling pressure. The 50% Fibonacci retracement aligns with a support area that showed a strong reaction yesterday, making it a favourable zone to wait for a pullback and continue trading in line with the trend. Intraday Trading Scenario Main Scenario – Trend-following BUY Entry: 4309 – 4312 SL: 4300 TP: 4330 → 4352 → 4390 Lana prefers to wait for a healthy pullback into this zone before entering, rather than chasing price near resistance. Trading Notes Thin liquidity → avoid large position sizes; focus on risk management If price does not pull back into the planned zone, Lana is comfortable staying flat Watch price reaction at resistance before expecting a breakout to new highs Lana’s Note 🌿 Every setup is just one of many possible market scenarios. Lana always defines a clear stop loss and only trades when price reaches the pre-planned zone.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
3
XAUUSD H1 Trading with Volume Profile Ahead of CPI RiskXAUUSD H1 Trading with Volume Profile Ahead of CPI Risk Gold is slowing down as the market awaits news and liquidity is fragmented, so prioritize trading according to Volume Profile zones to choose advantageous entry points instead of chasing prices. PRIORITY SCENARIO Strategy to buy at POC and VAL zones according to Volume Profile, suitable for a medium-term perspective. Buy zone: 4314 – 4317 SL: 4307 TP: 4328 – 4345 – 4363 – 4370 Technical context: On H1, the price is accumulating and reacting around the value area. The 4314–4317 area is the POC and VAL zone, often a liquidity attraction point and likely to see buying pressure if the structure maintains support. Expected movement: Price holds the 4314–4317 zone, absorbs short-term selling pressure, then rebounds to the above TP levels. When approaching 4345, monitor reactions as this is an area prone to selling pressure. Position management: If the price quickly rises but fails to hold above 4328, consider reducing risk. If the price clearly breaks below 4307, prioritize stopping the buy scenario and wait for a deeper zone. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO Sell scalping strategy at short-term resistance zone, higher risk as the larger trend still favors buying. Sell scalping zone: 4343 – 4346 SL: 4353 TP: 4325 – 4310 – 4290 Technical context: The 4343–4346 area is a sell scalping zone on the chart, suitable for short-term trading when the price rebounds to resistance and clear rejection signals appear. Note: Sell should only be a scalping order. Do not prioritize holding long sell positions if the market is still in an accumulation phase awaiting news. MAIN REASON Volume Profile shows that POC and VAL zones are advantageous entry points during a sideways market lacking a clear trend. The 4314–4317 zone acts as a value support area for finding buy points, while 4343–4346 is suitable for sell scalping when the price rebounds to resistance. When the market awaits news, the likelihood of liquidity sweeps increases, so trading by zones will be more effective than chasing candles. MACRO CONTEXT AND CPI DATA The upcoming US CPI release during the North American session will be the main variable guiding Fed policy expectations, directly impacting USD and gold. Ahead of data risk, dovish expectations from the Fed are causing USD to lack strong upward momentum, but volatility may spike suddenly at the time of the news release, creating spikes and sweeping SL on both ends. RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING Do not open orders when the price is between zones and has not reached the exact levels of 4314–4317 or 4343–4346. Prioritize reducing volume before CPI or only maintain positions that are already profitable and manage tightly. Focus on observing price reactions at POC VAL and sell scalping zones, as these are decisive points for short-term direction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD December 18, 2025 1. Momentum Analysis Daily (D1) Daily momentum is showing early signs of a bearish reversal. However, confirmation is still required by waiting for today’s D1 candle close. If the reversal is confirmed, this would suggest that Wave X is topping, and price is likely to move lower following D1 momentum to complete Wave Y. H4 H4 momentum is currently declining. In the near term, this suggests: - A corrective decline on H4, or - Sideway consolidation until H4 momentum reverses back to the upside H1 H1 momentum is showing signs of a bullish reversal, indicating: - A potential short-term upward move, or - Continued sideways movement within a tightening range 2. Elliott Wave Structure Daily (D1) The D1 wave structure remains largely unchanged from the previous plan. However, with D1 momentum weakening and starting to reverse, the probability of a Wave X top forming within today or the next few sessions is increasing. H4 On H4, price may still be developing Wave 5 (blue) of Wave C (red) within the larger Wave X structure. Given that the D1 structure resembles a Flat pattern, a move toward or equal to Wave 3 high near 4396 remains a realistic scenario. H1 Within Wave 5 (blue), we can observe an internal 5-wave structure (red). At this stage, price may be forming: - Wave 4 (red), or - Wave 5 (red), depending on upcoming price behavior Current advances are: - Overlapping - Lacking clear impulsive strength When combined with declining H4 momentum, this leads to two primary scenarios. 3. Main Scenarios 🔹 Scenario 1: Wave 4 Triangle Price remains in Wave 4, developing a triangle structure. In this case: - Wave d is likely complete - Price is currently forming Wave e 📌 The expected termination zone for Wave e: - Aligns with a bullish reversal in H4 momentum - Converges with the lower boundary of the triangle From Volume Profile analysis: - Price is currently trading around the POC (Point of Control), which also aligns with the Wave 3 top - Below, the 4301 zone represents a key liquidity boundary → this is the primary expectation for Wave e completion - Further below, 4271 marks a strong High–Low volume boundary ⚠️ A daily close below 4271 would significantly increase the probability of a deeper bearish scenario. 🔹 Scenario 2: Wave 5 (Red) – Ending Triangle Another high-probability scenario is that price is currently within Wave 5 (red). This Wave 5 may be forming an Ending Triangle with an internal 5-wave black structure. Key characteristics: - Gradually rising price - Strong overlap - Weakening momentum In this scenario: - Price should remain supported above the current POC - A final push higher toward 4365 is expected - Completion of Wave 5 would likely be followed by a sharp and steep bearish move, which is typical after an ending triangle 📌 This scenario requires additional price confirmation, and updates will be provided as structure becomes clearer. 4. Trading Plan Buy Zone: 4302 – 4300 Stop Loss: 4290 Take Profit Targets: TP1: 4332 TP2: 4365 TP3: 4393
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
XAU/USD| Bullish Structure Holds, Buy Pullbacks for ContinuationGold remains in a well-defined bullish channel. After a strong impulsive move, price is now undergoing a technical pullback / rebalancing phase, which is normal behavior within a healthy uptrend. From a fundamental perspective, dovish Fed expectations continue to support Gold, keeping downside moves corrective rather than trend-reversing. Technical Structure (Short-Term) Bullish market structure remains intact (Higher High – Higher Low) Current pullback is occurring within the discount zone of the ascending channel No confirmed bearish break of structure at this stage Upside liquidity remains stacked above recent highs Trading Plan – MMF Style Primary Scenario – Trend-Following BUY Preferred BUY zone: 4,303 – 4,320 Condition: price holds above support and maintains HL structure Targets: TP1: 4,335 TP2: 4,345 TP3: 4,359 (buy-side liquidity) Alternative Scenario If price does not pull back deeply and breaks above 4,335, wait for a clean retest to continue BUY setups. Invalidation A H1 close below 4,280 invalidates the short-term bullish bias and cancels BUY setups. Summary The short-term bias for Gold remains bullish. Priority remains buying pullbacks within the channel, avoiding FOMO at premium prices and waiting for price to return to key liquidity zones.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
XAUUSD (H1) – Gold Trading Plan | 12/18 Waiting for CPI to ...XAUUSD (H1) – Gold Trading Plan | 12/18 Waiting for CPI to “set the direction” | Buy on a break above 4355, Sell if the trendline breaks Strategy Summary (10-second read) Ahead of the US CPI data, gold is likely to stay range-bound and only make a decisive move once there is clear structural confirmation. Price is still holding within an ascending channel, but volume is declining noticeably → priority is confirmed break trades, no FOMO. Buy only if price breaks and holds above the strong resistance at 4355 Short-term Sell if the rising trendline breaks Mid-term Sell if the key low at 4306 is broken Key Levels (Important chart levels) Major resistance: 4355 (the “gateway” for bullish confirmation) Sell scalping zone: 4354–4355 (short-term reaction area) Sell liquidity zone: 4392 (overhead sell-side liquidity) Structural level / key low: 4306 (a break opens mid-term sell potential) FVG / deep liquidity draw: 4248 (target if strong distribution occurs) Scenario 1: Bullish Move (Activated only if 4355 is broken) Confirmation: Price breaks and holds above 4355 (preferably with a clear H1 candle close). Buy entry: 4348 SL: 4340 TP1: 4355–4360 TP2: 4392 (sell-side liquidity zone) Logic: With declining volume, fake breakouts are common. Therefore, buys are only valid once price decisively clears the directional resistance at 4355. Scenario 2: Short-term Bearish Move (Preferred if the rising trendline breaks) Confirmation: A clear break of the lower trendline of the ascending channel → sell the breakdown. After the break, prioritise selling on a retest of the trendline / nearby resistance Avoid chasing price at the lows First target typically lies near the below-liquidity area around 4306 Logic: The trendline acts as the “backbone” of the uptrend. Losing it during CPI conditions + weakening volume increases the probability of a fast sell-off to sweep liquidity. Scenario 3: Mid-term Bearish Move (If 4306 is broken) Confirmation: A clear and decisive break below 4306. At that point, mid-term sell positions can be prioritised based on structure Expected targets: Extension towards deeper support zones, with the 4248 FVG being a notable liquidity draw. News Context (Why confirmation matters today) The market is waiting for US CPI, a key inflation release that can shift expectations around the Fed’s rate-cut path. This directly impacts the USD and the next directional move in XAUUSD. ➡️ Today’s focus: wait for range breaks + strict risk control. Risk Management Maximum risk per trade: 1–2% If stopped out: pause and wait for fresh confirmation (no revenge trading) This analysis is shared for perspective and trading planning purposes only
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LA_Trader_Fx
XAUUSD is ranging before CPI direction comes after the news.Gold is currently consolidating sideways near the upper zone around 434x as the market awaits inflation data and updates from the BOJ. Short-term volatility may occur, but the overall structure remains intact, with no clear breakout signal seen in the previous session. Before the news, the preferred strategy is to trade within the range. Traders can look for reaction setups when price approaches 4346–4348, with a mandatory stop-loss, as this area has been tested multiple times. After the news is released, the market is expected to choose a new direction. If price breaks and holds firmly above the 435x zone, the bullish trend will be confirmed. In that case, the focus shifts to buying the breakout, with targets toward the previous high and potentially a new ATH. 👉 Before the news: trade the range – react at key levels. 👉 After the news: wait for confirmation – follow the trend.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Chum_trades
3
XAUUSD – H1 TechXAUUSD – H1 Technical Analysisnical AnalysisXAUUSD – H1 Technical Analysis Lana trades based on liquidity, with priority on price reaction 💛 Quick Summary Market context: Midweek, gold liquidity is relatively weak as holiday sentiment starts to build Timeframe: H1 Strategy: Buy at well-defined liquidity zones, sell psychological reactions at resistance Expectation: No major USD news today, so strong volatility is unlikely Market Context The market is entering a “resting phase” as many traders begin to step back ahead of the holiday period, leading to a noticeable drop in liquidity. Today, there are no key US economic releases, so gold is likely to trade within a narrow range, with movements driven mainly by technical factors. From a macro perspective, recent comments emphasising a clear separation between the White House and the Federal Reserve show that markets remain sensitive to inflation control. However, the short-term impact is limited, which fits a light, quick trading approach rather than holding positions for large moves. H1 Technical View On the H1 chart, price is moving around an equilibrium zone after previous fluctuations. Lower liquidity zones continue to provide solid support, while the upper side consists of psychological resistance levels that may trigger short-term reactions. With weak liquidity conditions, Lana is not looking for strong breakouts. The focus remains on price reaction at clear and well-defined zones. Intraday Trading Scenarios Main Scenario – Buy with liquidity Buy: 4302 – 4306 SL: 4298 This area shows a clear concentration of liquidity. If price revisits this zone and structure holds, a technical rebound is highly possible. Secondary Scenario – Sell scalping at resistance Sell: 4351 – 4355 SL: 4360 This sell setup is purely for scalping, taking advantage of psychological reactions near resistance. It is not preferred to hold sell positions for long under current market conditions. Trading Notes Weak liquidity → reduce position size, prioritise quick profits Avoid expecting large moves in the absence of major USD news Observe price reaction at key zones; avoid entering trades in the middle of the range Lana’s Note 🌿 Each scenario represents just one of many possible outcomes in the market. Lana always prioritises account protection, uses clear stop losses, and is ready to stay out if price does not return to the planned zones.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
1
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 17/12/2025 1. Momentum D1 (Daily) After the D1 candle closed, the daily momentum is currently compressed. This condition does not invalidate the ongoing bullish move, but it also does not confirm a reversal yet. We still need to wait for a clear momentum confirmation on D1. H4 H4 momentum is also compressing and showing early signs of a potential reversal. At this stage, there is no confirmed bearish H4 candle, so the correct approach is to remain patient and observe. H1 H1 momentum is weakening, suggesting that a short-term pullback or sideways movement may be developing on the H1 timeframe. 2. Elliott Wave Structure D1 Wave Structure The D1 wave count remains largely unchanged. With daily momentum still compressed, it is possible that price may produce one to two more bullish D1 candles. The upside target near 4396 is still valid to complete wave X. H4 Wave Structure Although H4 momentum has reached the overbought zone, price failed to break the previous high at 4354. This is an early warning signal that bullish momentum is weakening. While the signal is not yet strong enough to confirm a reversal, it supports the potential development of a bearish wave Y, as discussed in previous plans. H1 Wave Structure The failure of price to break the H4 high while momentum reached overbought creates two main scenarios on H1: Scenario 1 – Corrective triangle (abcde – blue): + Price may be in the final phase of a triangle correction. + If price drops below the lower boundary to complete wave e, the expected termination zone is around 4284. +Currently, price is still trading above the POC (green area), so it is possible that wave e has already completed. + In that case, a break above the b–d trendline would confirm a breakout entry. Scenario 2 – Impulsive 5-wave structure (1–2–3–4–5 – black): +Price is currently forming wave 2 (black). +The projected target for wave 2 is also near 4284. 👉 Key Confluence Zone: Both scenarios converge around 4284, making this area a high-probability Buy zone. ⚠️ Risk Note: If price closes below 4274, we must be prepared for a deeper downside scenario, and the current Buy plan should be reconsidered. 3. Trading Plan Buy Zone: 4285 – 4283 Stop Loss: 4273 Take Profit 1: 4329 Take Profit 2: 4353 Take Profit 3: 4365
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
XAU/USD: Rejected at Sell, Awaiting Support Reaction◆ Market Context (M30) Price has twice swept Liquidity Sell around the peak area but failed to hold, indicating weakening buying pressure at premium. Previously, the market had a Liquidity Sweep + Trap at the bottom, then created an upward BOS, so the current decline is seen as a rebalancing pullback, not yet a confirmed reversal. ◆ SMC & Price Action • The upper Liquidity Sell area has been completed → profit-taking pressure appears. • Price is returning to Support Zone 4,275 – 4,270, where it previously held and created BOS. • Below is a large OB 4,216, acting as a liquidity attraction area if the current support is broken. • The FVG + Fibo Sell area above is a reaction zone if the price retraces. ◆ Key Levels • Liquidity Sell (swept): 4,345 – 4,350 • Current Support: 4,275 – 4,270 • Lower OB: 4,216 • Supply / upper target (if rebound): 4,330 → 4,360+ ◆ Trading Scenarios ➤ Scenario A – Pullback BUY (priority) • Await reaction at Support 4,275 – 4,270 • Condition: maintain structure, appearance of rejection candle / buying reaction • Targets: ▪ 4,305 ▪ 4,330 ▪ extended: 4,360+ • Invalid if clearly breaks 4,257 ➤ Scenario B – Deeper Pullback • If Support 4,275 is lost • Monitor reaction at OB 4,216 • Only BUY when a new upward CHoCH appears ➤ Scenario C – Short-term Sell Retracement • If price retraces to FVG + Fibo Sell but does not break the peak • Observe rejection signals for short-term SELL back to the support area ◆ Summary • Context: upper Liquidity Sell swept → prioritize waiting for pullback. • Decisive area: 4,275 – 4,270. • Losing this area → potential liquidity attraction to 4,216. • Avoid FOMO BUY at premium; wait for clear reaction at support/OB.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Goldscale-Capital
4
XAUUSD H1 Analysis Before Key NewsXAUUSD H1 Analysis Before Key News During the Asian-European session, gold is likely to move sideways awaiting news as the market enters a sensitive phase with data and political factors, amidst a clearly formed short-term downtrend structure. PRIORITY SCENARIO Trading strategy according to the current structure, prioritizing short-term sell and buy at lower liquidity zones. Main sell zone: around 4323, coinciding with the POC of the Volume Profile. Technical context: price is moving below the equilibrium zone, clear H1 downtrend structure; the POC area often acts as a "pullback to sell" price zone. Expected movement: early European session may see a pullback of about 40–50 points, then price returns to sideways movement and faces downward pressure again. Position management: Sell should only be held short-term and tightly managed when price reacts at 4323. If price surpasses POC and holds above this zone, risk should be reduced and avoid holding sell positions. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO Strategy to buy at lower liquidity zones, suitable for medium-term trading. Buy zone 1: around 4242, important VAH zone. Buy zone 2: around 4215, Buy Zone according to Volume Profile. Technical context: these are two price zones with high liquidity density, often attracting buying force when the market needs to rebalance after a decline. Expected movement: price sweeps liquidity below, creating a new accumulation base and seeking recovery opportunities. MAIN REASON On H1, a downtrend structure has formed after a distribution phase, indicating short-term advantage leans towards the sell side. Volume Profile clearly identifies POC 4323 as a reasonable pullback zone to sell, while 4242 and 4215 are price zones with high probability of buying reaction. Sideways scenario before news fits the market context awaiting important macroeconomic and political information. MACRO CONTEXT AND POLITICAL NEWS Political factors are strongly impacting the currency market, especially the USD. The US is said to have proposed a security guarantee mechanism for Ukraine similar to NATO's Article 5 to promote negotiations to end the conflict with Russia, although territorial issues have not yet reached consensus. These signals are putting weakening pressure on the USD, thereby continuing to support gold in the medium term. However, in the short term, strong volatility around news release time is something to be particularly noted. RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING Do not prioritize trading when price is between the equilibrium zone and has not reached important Volume Profile levels. Sell orders should only be considered short-term trades before news, avoiding holding through data release or important political speeches. Medium-term buy strategy will have more advantage if price reacts clearly at 4242 or deeper at 4215. Closely monitor USD fluctuations as current political news is the main driving factor.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
XAUUSD (H1) – Gold Analysis for TodayXAUUSD (H1) – Gold Analysis for Today Price has touched the resistance trendline, but the plan still prioritises BUY (VAL 4303–4306) Strategy Overview Gold is currently reacting at the resistance trendline, but there is not enough confirmation yet to call a bearish reversal. For now, the main plan remains to look for buys from the liquidity zone (Volume Profile – VAL). A strong trend shift will only be confirmed if price clearly breaks and closes above the trendline. 1) Technical View Price is being pressed by the upper resistance trendline, so short-term volatility and wicks are likely. However, the lower area is supported by Volume Profile (VAL), which favours a reaction-based buy strategy rather than FOMO entries in the middle of the move. On the upside, there is strong liquidity around 4370, a zone where profit-taking or distribution can easily appear. 2) Trading Plan for Today (Clear Entry – SL) Scenario A (Preferred): BUY using Volume Profile (VAL) ✅ Buy: 4303 – 4306 (VAL) SL: 4295 Near TP: 4320 – 4330 Extended TP: Towards the 4370 liquidity zone if the trendline is broken successfully Logic: VAL represents a “low value area” on the Volume Profile, which often attracts buying interest. As long as price holds this zone, the bias remains buy on pullbacks. Scenario B: SELL at the upper strong liquidity zone ✅ Sell: Around 4370 SL: 4380 TP: 4330 → 4306 (return to the value area) Logic: The 4370 level is a strong liquidity zone. If price reaches this area and fails to hold, it provides a textbook reaction-based sell setup. 3) Trend Confirmation Conditions Strong bullish confirmation: When price breaks and closes an H1 candle clearly above the trendline. At that point, buy setups become safer, with targets towards higher liquidity zones. If price continues to be rejected multiple times at the trendline, the priority is to wait for price to return to VAL 4303–4306 before buying. Avoid chasing price. 4) Fundamental Context CIBC: Weaker US employment data may push the Fed to cut interest rates earlier next year, which is typically supportive for gold in the medium term. Silver prices breaking higher due to tight supply and rising demand suggest that precious metals flows remain strong, meaning gold can experience sharp liquidity-driven moves. 💬 Which scenario are you leaning towards today? Buying at VAL 4303–4306, or waiting for price to reach 4370 to sell the reaction?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LA_Trader_Fx
XAUUSD – Continuation Update | Buy Trade Progressing as PlannedAfter the earlier move and corrective phase, Gold once again respected the previous high → support zone, confirming that buyers were still defending structure. 🔹 Buy Trade Recap: Entry taken after structure held above support Price dipped close to SL, but never broke structure Liquidity was grabbed, weak hands shaken out Market respected demand and expanded upward 🎯 TP1 hit successfully Partial profits secured as planned. 🔹 Current Status: Buy position still active Targeting TP2 SL protected and trade managed This trade is a reminder: Markets don’t reward impatience. They reward those who trust their analysis and manage risk. Almost stopped out, yes — but structure stayed intact. And that’s all that matters. Patience is not passive. It’s a position. #XAUUSD #Gold #TradeManagement #SmartMoney #TradingView #ValhallaCore
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by VALHALLA-FX
Gold 1H – Fed Chair Speculation Drives Smart Money Flow🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (16/12) 📈 Market Context Gold is trading in a liquidity-driven range as markets focus on today’s hot topic: NFP expectations and Fed rate-path uncertainty. Recent NFP previews highlight divergence between slowing headline job growth and still-sticky wage components, keeping DXY flows unstable. This environment typically favors stop-hunts and liquidity sweeps rather than clean directional moves ahead of confirmation. As a result, Smart Money is likely to engineer price into clear premium and discount zones before committing to expansion. 🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (1H) Current Phase: Post-expansion, consolidating after a CHoCH within a broader bullish context Key Idea: Expect a sweep into premium (4352–4354) or discount (4272–4270) before the next impulsive move Structural Notes: • Higher-timeframe BOS keeps bullish bias intact • Recent pullback reflects distribution/profit-taking, not a confirmed reversal • Equal highs above 4350 and sell-side liquidity below 4270 are clearly exposed Liquidity Zones & Triggers: • 🔴 SELL GOLD 4352 – 4354 | SL 4362 • 🟢 BUY GOLD 4272 – 4270 | SL 4262 Institutional Flow Expectation: sweep → MSS / CHoCH → BOS → displacement → FVG / OB retest → expansion 🎯 Execution Rules (matching your exact zones) 🔴 SELL GOLD 4352 – 4354 | SL 4362 Rules: ✔ Liquidity sweep above recent highs into premium ✔ Bearish MSS / CHoCH on M5–M15 ✔ Downside BOS with strong bearish displacement ✔ Entry via bearish FVG refill or refined supply OB Targets: 1. 4325 2. 4300 3. 4285 – extension if momentum accelerates 🟢 BUY GOLD 4272 – 4270 | SL 4262 Rules: ✔ Liquidity grab below equal lows / dynamic support ✔ Bullish MSS / CHoCH confirms demand takeover ✔ Upside BOS with impulsive displacement ✔ Entry via bullish FVG fill or demand OB retest Targets: 1. 4285 2. 4310 3. 4350 – extension if USD weakens post-data ⚠️ Risk Notes • NFP-related positioning can cause false breaks — wait for structure, not the first spike • Avoid trades without clear MSS + BOS confirmation • Expect higher spreads and volatility during the U.S. session • Reduce risk if entering close to major data releases 📍 Summary Today’s gold setup is defined by NFP-driven rate uncertainty: • A sweep into 4354 may invite bearish structure back toward 4300–4285 or • A liquidity grab near 4270 could reload bullish flow toward 4310–4350 Let structure confirm — Smart Money reacts, retail anticipates. ⚡️ 📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money gold breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
1
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – December 16, 2025 1. Momentum D1 (Daily): Daily momentum is showing signs of a bearish reversal. However, we must wait for today’s D1 candle to close to confirm this signal. This is a critical confirmation, as it will determine whether the market has formed a medium-term top. H4: H4 momentum is currently in the oversold zone and is preparing for a bullish reversal. Once confirmed, we can expect a technical rebound lasting approximately 4–5 H4 candles. H1: H1 momentum remains bearish and is moving toward the oversold area. We will wait for price to reach oversold conditions and for momentum to confirm a bullish reversal, which would signal a short-term H1 corrective rally. --- 2. Elliott Wave Structure D1: With D1 momentum turning down, if today’s daily candle confirms the reversal, price is likely forming the top of the purple wave X. After wave X completes, the market may enter purple wave Y, which is most likely developing as a Flat correction. → The projected target for wave Y is near the 3888 zone. H4: Price is currently trading within green wave 5. Once this wave 5 completes, it will also mark the completion of wave C and wave X on the higher timeframe. Given that H4 momentum is oversold, a short-term upward move is expected before the broader structure completes. H1: The current decline is likely forming a red 1–2–3–4–5 structure within green wave 5. At this stage, price is developing red wave 4. This red wave 4 is unfolding as a Flat corrective structure, consistent with the scenario outlined in yesterday’s plan. Target for red wave C: around 4260 Above this level, 4274 represents a high-liquidity / low-liquidity boundary Therefore, when price reaches the 4260–4274 zone, we will combine this area with H1 momentum bullish confirmation to look for long entries. Expected targets for red wave 5: Target 1: 4365 Target 2: 4393 3. Key Notes As discussed in previous plans, the recent rebound did not reach the 4353 level. This does not invalidate the scenario in which green wave 5 completes near this area (refer to the weekly plan). Therefore, if: D1 momentum confirms a bearish reversal at today’s close, and The upcoming H4 rebound fails to break above 4353, → We must be prepared for the scenario in which purple wave Y on the D1 timeframe has already begun. 4. Trading Plan Buy Zone: 4261 – 4259 Stop Loss: 4240 Take Profit 1: 4286 Take Profit 2: 4319 Take Profit 3: 4365
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
Gold 1H – NFP in Control: 4355 Cap or 4260 Hold?🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (16/12) 📈 Market Context Gold is trading inside a high-volatility liquidity environment as markets digest the NFP Preview: Rate Path Divergence & Implications for DXY and Gold. With the upcoming U.S. labor data set to shape expectations for the Fed’s 2026 rate path, USD flows remain unstable. Any surprise in employment or wage components could trigger sharp repricing in rate-cut expectations, directly impacting gold through DXY volatility. In this context, institutions are unlikely to commit direction early. Instead, liquidity engineering and stop-hunts around key premium/discount zones are favored ahead of true displacement. 🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (1H) Current Phase: Post-expansion, now rotating inside a rising channel and pausing near equilibrium Key Idea: Expect a liquidity sweep into premium (4353–4355) or discount (4262–4260) before the next impulsive move Structural Notes: • Prior BOS confirms bullish higher-timeframe context • Recent pullback signals profit-taking, not full reversal • Equal highs above 4350 and sell-side liquidity below 4260 are clearly exposed Liquidity Zones & Triggers: • 🔴 SELL GOLD 4353 – 4355 | SL 4363 • 🟢 BUY GOLD 4262 – 4260 | SL 4272 Institutional Flow Expectation: sweep → MSS / CHoCH → BOS → displacement → FVG / OB retest → expansion 🎯 Execution Rules (matching your exact zones) 🔴 SELL GOLD 4353 – 4355 | SL 4363 Rules: ✔ Liquidity sweep above recent highs into premium ✔ Bearish MSS / CHoCH on M5–M15 ✔ Downside BOS with strong bearish displacement ✔ Entry via bearish FVG refill or refined supply OB Targets: 1. 4325 2. 4300 3. 4285 – extension if momentum accelerates 🟢 BUY GOLD 4262 – 4260 | SL 4272 Rules: ✔ Liquidity grab below equal lows / channel support ✔ Bullish MSS / CHoCH confirms demand takeover ✔ Upside BOS with impulsive displacement ✔ Entry via bullish FVG fill or demand OB retest Targets: 1. 4280 2. 4310 3. 4350 – extension if USD weakens post-data ⚠️ Risk Notes • NFP-related positioning can cause false breaks — wait for structure, not the first spike • Avoid trades without clear MSS + BOS confirmation • Expect spreads and volatility to expand during U.S. sessions • Reduce risk if entering close to news releases 📍 Summary Today’s gold narrative is driven by NFP-led rate path uncertainty: • A sweep into 4355 may invite bearish structure back toward 4300–4285 or • A liquidity grab near 4260 could reload bullish flow toward 4310–4350 Let structure confirm — Smart Money reacts, retail anticipates. ⚡️ 📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money gold breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
XAUUSD – Structure Delivered | Buy Complete Sell Phase InitiateThis chart was shared on 12-12-2025 when Gold was holding previous high → flipped support. That level did exactly what it was supposed to do. 🔹 Buy Logic (12-12-2025): Previous highs tapped → support confirmed Strong displacement from the level Clean bullish structure continuation Price respected demand and delivered full upside move 🎯 Buy target hit cleanly, no drawdown drama. Now fast forward ⏩ After the expansion, price reached premium supply / distribution zone, failed to continue higher, and started forming lower highs. 🔻 Current Sell Bias: Rejection from supply Bullish structure weakened Market shifting into retracement / distribution phase Expecting continuation towards lower imbalance / support zones This is how the market works: ➡️ Expansion ➡️ Target delivery ➡️ Distribution ➡️ Reversal / retracement Same chart. Same plan. Bias changes when structure changes, not when emotions do. #XAUUSD #Gold #SmartMoney #MarketStructure #TradingView #ValhallaCore
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by VALHALLA-FX
1
XAUUSD – Overall Market View (12/16) XAUUSD – Overall Market View (12/16) Strategy Summary Gold is holding its ground, but the main direction is still unclear because today comes with a series of high-impact news. My approach today is “wait for confirmation before entering”, with two clearly defined scenarios: Bullish confirmation: Break and hold above 4320 Bearish confirmation: Break and hold below 4271 1) Key Price Levels on the Chart 4320: Bullish confirmation level + resistance / upper FVG zone 4370 – 4373: Strong liquidity zone → preferred area to look for SELL reactions 4271: Bearish confirmation level (support break) Lower zone (based on structure / trendline): Deeper support area where price may react and bounce, as marked by the arrow on the chart 2) Today’s Trading Scenarios (Trade the Level Style) Scenario A – Bullish (Only valid if price breaks above 4320) If an H1 candle closes clearly above 4320, gold is likely to move up and test the upper liquidity zone. Preferred approach: wait for a pullback and BUY short-term, following the move (as shown by the arrow). Avoid FOMO buys in the middle of the move. Reasonable target: 4370 – 4373 (Strong Liquidity). Note: The 4370 – 4373 zone is highly likely to see selling pressure, as large liquidity is resting there. Scenario B – Bearish (Confirmed if price breaks below 4271) If price breaks below 4271 and fails on the retest, the bearish scenario becomes dominant (classic sell retest setup). ✅ Sell: 4271 ❌ SL: 4280 🎯 Expectation: Price may extend lower toward deeper structural support zones. 3) Main SELL Setup at the Major Liquidity Zone ✅ Sell Entry: 4370 ❌ SL: 4380 Logic: This is a Strong Liquidity zone where profit-taking and distribution are likely to appear. ➡️ Only SELL on confirmation and reaction — no chasing trades. 4) Today’s News (High Volatility Expected) Today’s US data can cause sharp moves and stop hunts on both sides: Average Hourly Earnings m/m Core Retail Sales m/m Non-Farm Employment Change Retail Sales m/m Unemployment Rate Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI My rule: Reduce position size before news. After the news, wait for the market to show direction, then trade around 4320 / 4271. 5) Risk Management Do not enter trades in the middle of a noisy range. Only trade at key levels with confirmation. 💬 Question for everyone: Which scenario are you leaning towards today — break above 4320 or break below 4271?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LA_Trader_Fx
XAU/USD: Sell on Bearish OB, Buy Deep at Bullish OB1. Context & Price Structure (M30) • The price is in a downward correction after a strong previous increase. • On the retracement zone, EQH + ChoCH decrease appears → signal of weakening buying flow, prioritize "retracement to sell" in the short term. • The price is still pressed under the descending trendline, so the short-term bias remains downward until a clear break occurs. • Support Zone 4,275 is the decisive point: if held, it will rebound technically, if broken, it opens the path to the lower demand zone. 2. Key Levels (according to the chart drawn) • OB Bearish (Sell Zone): 4,308 – 4,312 (≈ 4,311.888) → supply zone + trendline confluence, prioritize watching for SELL when retracing. • Support Zone: 4,272 – 4,276 (≈ 4,275.451) → central support zone, can create a rebound/retracement. • Mid Support / Target: 4,247.624 → next target if 4,275 is broken. • OB Bullish (Buy Zone): 4,223.400 – 4,205.983 → strong demand zone, expected to sweep and reverse. 3. Trading Plan (with clear conditions) Scenario 1 – SELL on retracement at Bearish OB (main scenario) • If the price retraces to 4,308 – 4,312 and a rejection reaction appears: strong pin bar downward engulfing or ChoCH decreases again on M15/M30 • Then prioritize SELL according to the correction trend. • TP1: 4,275 • TP2: 4,247 • TP3: 4,223 (approaching OB Bullish) • Invalidation: M30 closes above 4,318 and holds above → stop SELL idea. Scenario 2 – BUY deep at Bullish OB (important scenario to catch a large retracement) • If the price breaks 4,275 with a clear M30 candle and slides down to 4,223 – 4,206. • Wait for Liquidity Sweep + reversal signal: pin bar at OB upward engulfing or ChoCH increases (M15/M30) • When confirmed, prioritize BUY. • TP1: 4,247 • TP2: 4,275 • TP3: 4,308 • Invalidation: M30 closes below 4,198 → stay out and observe. 4. Risk Management Notes • Do not chase SELL when the price is close to 4,275 (support zone). • Do not BUY early before the price hits Bullish OB and confirmation is received. • If the price reclaims strongly above the trendline + 4,312, the bias will shift to "BUY pullback" instead of "Sell retracement."
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CaptainVincent
XAUUSD – Lana Prefers SELL, BUY Only for Short-Term ScalpingXAUUSD – Lana Prefers SELL, BUY Only for Short-Term Scalping 💛 Quick Summary Short-term trend: Downward pressure dominates Timeframe: H1 Strategy: Focus on SELL; BUY only for quick scalping at liquidity zones Note: Today features multiple US data releases and events, so volatility may be higher than usual Market Context The market enters the session with a dense news flow: US Presidential speech, unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls, and Retail Sales. In such conditions, gold often experiences strong swings and liquidity sweeps before moving in the main direction. Therefore, Lana prioritizes selling at higher zones and only takes short-term BUY positions when price reaches clear support zones. Technical Outlook After the previous upward move, the H1 structure shows weakening price action, indicating the possibility of a continued downward move. Upper zones where short-term resistance converges are suitable for following the intraday SELL trend. Below, liquidity zones may trigger temporary rebounds, but Lana considers these only for scalping and does not hold positions for long. Intraday Trading Scenarios Main Scenario – Trend-Following SELL Sell: 4308 – 4312 SL: 4320 This is Lana’s preferred zone today. If price retraces into this area and shows rejection, the downtrend is likely to continue. Buy Scenario 1 – Short-Term Scalping at Nearby Support Buy: 4253 SL: 4240 This BUY is only for short swings, with quick profit-taking when price reacts. Buy Scenario 2 – Scalping at Deep Liquidity Zone Buy: 4213 SL: 4200 This is a stronger liquidity zone. If price drops quickly here during news, a technical rebound is possible, but Lana maintains the view not to hold BUY positions for long. Session Notes Asian & European sessions: Price may fluctuate and create technical retracements US session: Strong news-driven volatility can sweep both sides before a clear direction emerges Each scenario represents a probability, not certainty. On high-news days, Lana always reduces position size, sets clear SLs, and is willing to skip trades if price does not reach the expected zones.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
9