Gold : The fundamental context and goals have both changedOANDA:XAUUSD The breakout of the local downtrend channel has disadvantaged sellers. The fundamental background is changing, despite continued USD buying and the prevailing risk-off environment, which overall favors gold as a safe-haven asset during times of crisis.
The stronger USD, supported by the ongoing "Trump trade" rally, and US bond yields have rebounded across various maturities.
Despite the optimism around the USD, gold prices remain resilient and benefit from escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Therefore, gold prices are likely to continue their growth in the near term before today’s scheduled news (PMI)... However! Since this is pre-news before session closing, reactions may consolidate for sellers before further strengthening.
Technically, gold has every opportunity to retest the boundaries of the previously broken channel. However, based on fundamental news and technical factors, we can conclude that further growth may continue.
Prices are heading toward a liquidity zone, from which a correction may occur, followed by expected further strengthening in the near term. But in any case, I prioritize and consider buying upon a clear breakout of gold at 2686 - 2700, targeting the medium-term highs as outlined on the chart.
Zigzag
Gold-> Buyer Back Yet?After suffering significant losses last week, gold has regained its recovery momentum and is trading positively above $2,600 on Monday. The fundamental backdrop supports this recovery. Key resistance levels at $2,518 and $2,628 now divide the market into two distinct zones.
Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting moves from several Fed officials this week to gain further insights into the U.S. interest rate trajectory.
The most likely scenario at the moment is a slight recovery in gold prices following the recent steep sell-off, with expectations for gold to climb higher after several reversals in the USD.
In the medium term, bulls need to reassess U.S. policy planning in December, as the Fed is expected to hold rates steady in January. This has not been fully priced into the market, so any adjustments could pose challenges for gold.
Technically, since the market opened, prices have climbed considerably, increasing the likelihood of resistance capping further upward movement. A false breakout at $2,589 and subsequent consolidation below this zone would strengthen selling pressure. However, there is potential for a retest of $2,618 (Order Block).
Similarly, a failed breakout could trigger selling momentum. But if the fundamentals align strongly in favor of gold, the market may have a chance to shift the local trend from the $2,618 zone.
GBPUSDFX:GBPUSD Back to the liquidity test above after the free fall. The pair lacks bullish conviction amid a stable US dollar and as investors choose to wait for the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Report Hearing before placing strong bets.
A clear bearish wave is forming on the larger timeframe, on the smaller timeframe the downtrend is formed based on negative fundamentals, which only strengthened after Trump's victory. Therefore, any strong resistance can easily hold the market.
On H4, it is trying to break out of the main range, breaking the main support level. A consolidation is forming inside the channel, if sellers hold the 1.269 - 1.277 zone, we can expect a decline towards the areas of interest in the medium term.
Resistance: 1.282 - 1.277 and 1.269
Support: 1.259 - 1.247 and 1.231
The focus is on the resistance level mentioned above, as the further struggle and movement of the market depends on this important zone at this point. The bearish structure will be broken when the local high at 1.282 i.e. (0.5 fib) is broken and the price consolidates above this zone.
Update latest gold price today !Hello everyone!
Gold has been in a steady decline since the start of the week, currently sitting at 2561, with strong indications that this downtrend may persist. The key 2550 level is still fiercely contested, keeping traders on edge.
The market remains clouded with apprehension, especially with recent developments in the U.S. following Donald Trump's election as president. This lingering uncertainty may continue to weigh heavily on gold.
At the moment, all attention is focused on the upcoming October Producer Price Index (PPI) report in the U.S. Analysts are forecasting a year-over-year increase of 2.3% for October, a notable jump from September's 1.8%. If both the CPI and PPI show further inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve could be pushed to raise interest rates, which could apply even more pressure on gold prices. A stronger U.S. dollar would make gold trading and holding costs more expensive, potentially intensifying the sell-off.
Technically speaking, the battle at 2550 is far from over, and there’s a strong likelihood of a brief pullback before continuing the downward trend. This could mean a possible retest of the 2600-2580 resistance zone before resuming its decline. Chart patterns suggest that if the correction unfolds as anticipated—possibly in line with an Elliott wave impulse—the target could be around 2485, a drop of over 1000 pips from the resistance level.
Stay tuned for more developments as this situation unfolds!
Gold -> How Long Will the Adjustment Last? Emphasis on $2,600Hello, dear friends!
Gold (XAU/USD) extended its recovery early this week, reaching the critical $2,600 mark and ending a six-day losing streak after a false breakout and a retest of $2,546. This rally has been fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions as the U.S. authorized Ukraine to use long-range weapons to strike Russia.
However, the market remains under significant pressure. The USD and bond yields continue to rise, while the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance. Economic struggles in Europe are weakening the euro, driving demand for the USD and further weighing on gold.
This week, the gold market is expected to remain subdued with limited major economic data releases. Key areas to watch include U.S. housing data, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and comments from Federal Reserve officials.
Gold is currently testing the critical resistance zone at $2,600–$2,589. A false breakout here could trigger strong selling, reinforcing bearish momentum. Conversely, a modest pullback followed by a decline to $2,546 would solidify a clearer downtrend. Keep a close watch!
BITCOIN: Elliott Wave & ChannelGreetings, everyone.😉
I would like to present a scenario for your consideration, grounded in "Elliott Wave Theory" .
✔️ Wave initiated from the 15K level: Classified as a "Double Zigzag"
✔️ Current wave in development: Y-c-3
✔️ Projected upward range: 93K ~ 101K
The rationale behind this analysis is as follows:
Zigzag patterns typically move within a parallel channel.
The first zigzag wave, which started from the 15K level, adhered precisely to this parallel channel.
As a result, the likelihood of a complex correction occurring is considerably high.
Based on these observations, I have constructed this particular scenario. It is an illustrative representation of potential market behavior, grounded in established technical principles.
Wishing you all the best of luck🍀
This is not a buy or sell recommendation.
It is a personal perspective and should be used for reference only.
All decisions and responsibilities lie with you.
Raise / Fall in NIFTY 50:- updated viewElliott Wave Analysis.:-
There may be a Pull back for 19886 -19960.
We have to wait and watch the wave formation
i'm not a SEBI registered advisor.
Before taking a trade do your own analysis or consult a financial advisor.
I share chart for education purpose only.
I share my trade setup.
zigzag correction in BANKNIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS:-
View-1:-
It seems that a zigzag wave has completed.
A bounce back looks like connecting correction wave B is forming, a little bounce back may happen to form a connecting waves in a correction form.
View-2:-
It seems that a zigzag wave has completed.
An impulse wave was emerged and an impulse 1st wave was completed and a corrective 2nd wave was completed it seems to be an emerging of impulse 3rd wave .
Expected a reasonable bounce back if the 43600 level sustains. If the level break and go down then there will be another zig zag formation may take place.
T1=44439
T2= 44586
T3=44957
T4=45274-45615
For View 2 stop loss will be 43600.
For wave 1 there will be no stop loss.
i'm not a SEBI registered advisor. Before taking a trade do your own analysis or consult a financial advisor.
Zig Zag corrective pattern and the Case study of Natural GasHello Friends,
Here we had shared some major points and characteristics of Zigzag Correction pattern of Elliott waves.
Also we had shared real example chart study of zigzag pattern as a case study of NaturalGas, in which their are some principles and guidelines, which are perfectly going through in chart of NaturalGas.
Principles and Guidelines of Zigzag correction pattern
1) Zigzag correction pattern is a 3 waves structure which is labelled as A-B-C
3) Subdivision of wave A and C is 5 waves, either impulse or diagonal
4) Wave B can be any corrective structure as 3 subdivisions
5) Zigzag is a 5-3-5 correction structure
Fibonacci measurements
Wave B is always contra trend which generally retraces near 50% or 61.8% of wave A, and can also retraces up to 85.4% to 90% of wave A
Wave C can generally be expected near 100% of wave A, but sometimes if it is extended then it can show 123.6%, 138.2% or up to 161.8% also.
Sometimes if wave C is truncated then it can be near 61.8% of wave A.
But ,If wave C is going more than 161.8% of wave A, then we should be cautious, because it can also be some kind of impulse wave instead of corrective wave.
Case Study of Natural Gas
Natural Gas almost done as expected till now as per zigzag corrective pattern, it would not be wonder if it looks to be doing a double correction higher in wave (ii) bounce & can see 2.786 level sometimes in next week before turning down as a wave (iii) of 5 of (C), On lower time frame if it doesn't crosses high of March 2023, then it can show some down moves to complete wave (iii), (iv) and (v) of 5 of bigger degree wave (C).
After big correction as zigzag pattern which had already reached extreme levels in wave (C) which is more then 123.6% of wave (A), so now anytime it can start fresh impulse moves towards north directions, so instead of finding selling opportunities, one should try to find buying opportunities only after confirmation, and confirmation is price crossing high of march 2023, once its crossed peak point of march 2023 then no selling is recommended, then its only buy on dips with invalidation levels of Low of April 2023 as a stoploss, because it must be ending the bigger correction from last year peak, and can be taken as fresh impulse is started.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com/u/RK_Charts/ is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Nifty Bank ShortDear Friends,
I have plotted Nifty Bank in daily time frame. Here , it is clearly observed that Nifty Bank is under sliding parallel channel. Yesterday, Nifty Bank is about to cross sliding parallel channel. However, today; bear market is seen.
Anybody can take fresh short position with Nifty Bank Index based on own risk tolerance. However, one should square off his/her position as and when Nifty Bank crosses sliding parallel channel from its above.
Thank you very much for reading my article.
Elliott wave theory on Nifty50 (SHORT)In 15 min time frame nifty may be completed 5 wave structure for the correction of C wave (violet color).
As per my analysis NSE:NIFTY may form zig-zag structure.
So, it is time to be alert before any buy or CE trade. Structure looks like still bearish.
Important levels are marked on chart with comments as per my analysis. Please check carefully.
May be right or wrong let's see.
Disclaimer- I am not SEBI registered analyst, all post for educational purposes, no claim rights reserved, please take advice from your financial advisor before Investing any trade, we are not responsible for any profit or loss.
Reliance Parallel Channel Strong Confluence Circle I daily make market analysis videos and posts on Financial markets
SR means Support and Resistance
PC means Parallel Channel
Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational purposes only. Our intention is not to provide any financial advice, don't take any decision without consulting your financial advisor.
The probability chance for short selling tomorrow.This is a clear Sharp Zigzag pattern. The price already reached 0.618 for wave ((Y)).
The trader can get a High probability chance for short selling tomorrow with a very small protective stop.
Supports
S1- 17810
S2- 17650
The Short Seller can use these supports level as the target. I am expecting a Nifty future between these both supports.
Definitely, if I found any clue for a turning point in the nifty future in the range of 17810-17650 . I will create a long position for a new high.
((Y)) = ((W)) at 18711 which is still too far and, as per the time-cycle C2 can be after 12th march, 2022.
Elliott Wave Analysis : Maruti Suzuki weekly TimeFrameAfter Double Zigzag, new Impulse Phrase has started and 4th wave of Primary degree is forming,
as we all know that corrective 4th is the accelerator of 5th wave . so , if we will find the ending point of wave 4 we can ride on the 5th impulse.
Competition of Fifth wave will also provide us the ending point of 1st wave higher degree.
Real Time example - TRIPLE ZIGZAG (Bullish)Let's talk about each waves of Triple Zigzag:
Wave W (5-3-5) impulsive: ((a)) = ((b)) at 17709 which is close actual low 17613. Its a sharp zigzag.
Wave 1X corrective: Wave ((b)) 3-3-5, Running Correction which is little complex.
Wave Y (5-3-5) sharp: ((a)) = 0.786 ((b)) at 16824 which, is very near actual low as 16782
Our first question is, What is the Zigzag?
In chart, a, b and c is zigzag which very easy to understand by picture.
Its really easy to understand this wave counting if you read just below basic rules and Characteristics of Zigzags. The main question, What is going on in nifty? This Triple Zigzag is bullish pattern. Really market is follow this pattern? - Wait and Watch...
Characteristics of Zigzags:
— labeled a-b-c
— subdivide 5-3-5
— typically occur in wave 2 position
— ‘b’ wave does not approach ‘a’ wave origin
— ‘c’ wave ends beyond ‘a’ wave extreme
— belong to ‘sharp'
Rules:
- Wave A always subdivides into an impulse or leading diagonal.
-Wave A always subdivides into an impulse or leading diagonal.
- Wave B always subdivides into a zigzag, flat, triangle or combination.
- Wave C always subdivides into an impulse or diagonal triangle.
We can use channel for zigzag. The Wave C often ends upon reaching the extreme of the channel.