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Bitcoin at Support: Bounce Likely, Trend Still WeakBitcoin has been sliding steadily and has now broken its first major support near 103k. The latest drop completed a clear A-B-C decline, with the final C-wave forming an ending diagonal — a pattern that often signals exhaustion at the end of a move. That’s why the selling pressure slowed as price entered the current demand zone. Oversold Conditions The RSI on the daily chart has dropped into deeply oversold territory. This is typically where Bitcoin produces a reaction bounce. It doesn’t confirm a trend reversal, but it does hint that sellers may pause. What Happens Next A corrective bounce — the X-wave — is the most reasonable expectation. However, X-waves are usually messy and uneven, not clean rallies. The key area to watch is 100k–103k . If Bitcoin cannot reclaim this zone, the larger corrective structure remains in control. Bigger Picture The moving averages support this caution. The 50-day and 200-day MAs are close to forming a death cross, which signals weakening short-term momentum relative to the long-term trend. It doesn’t imply a crash, but it does suggest that any bounce may face resistance. If the X-wave fails below 103k, the next leg — the Y-wave — could drive price toward the larger support region around 72k–75k. In Summary The decline looks structurally complete, ending with an ending diagonal. RSI is deeply oversold -> a corrective bounce is likely. 100k–103k is the make-or-break zone. Failure to reclaim it keeps the W-X-Y correction active. The final support zone sits lower, near 72k–75k. A bounce may come first, but the broader structure still leans bearish unless key resistance levels are regained. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by WaveXplorer
3
BTCUSD SHOWING A GOOD UP MOVE WITH 1:10 RISK REWARD BTCUSD SHOWING A GOOD UP MOVE WITH 1:10 RISK REWARD DUE TO THESE REASON A. its following a rectangle pattern that stocked the market which preventing the market to move any one direction now it trying to break the strong resistant lable B. after the break of this rectangle it will boost the market potential for break C. also its resisting from a strong neckline the neckline also got weeker ald the price is ready to break in the outer region all of these reason are indicating the same thing its ready for breakout BREAKOUT trading are follws good risk reward please dont use more than one percentage of your capitalfollow risk reward and tradeing rules that will help you to to become a bettertrader thank you
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by tradergyan01
2
BITCOIN WEEKLY RSI SIGNAL JUST REPEATED – BIG MOVE LOADING? BITCOIN WEEKLY RSI SIGNAL JUST REPEATED – BIG MOVE LOADING? This chart shows something MAJOR: Across the last 5 market cycles, Bitcoin only touched this RSI demand zone at the bottom right before massive reversals: 1️⃣ 2015 bottom 2️⃣ 2018 capitulation 3️⃣ 2020 COVID crash 4️⃣ 2022 bear-market low 5️⃣ NOW: 2025 RSI touch again Each time BTC hit this level → it triggered one of the strongest trend reversals of the cycle. And now we’ve hit it again while price is consolidating inside the green accumulation zone. Historically, this has been the highest-probability long-term opportunity zone in every cycle. If history rhymes, the next big move might be closer than people think. Stay sharp. NFA.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoPatel
BTC Swing 8R reversal scenario....BTC moved as per our plan throughout last 10-15 days and crashed to ~ 90K levels, now it has reached to its critical level of reversal, which is weekly FVG CE area. Price has already shown change in delivery at 4H level. All these making it a really good contender for a long swing trade which may even lead to all time high. 1. Price has tested CE of weekly strong FVG and formed CISD at 4-hour level. 2. Now it is testing CISD imbalance area to form proper entry model… 3. We may wait for MSS to occur in this area in 15 minutes for more precise entries. 4. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVG/RDRB level and create MSS/CISD/TS/iFVG in LTF. 5. Price should show rejection/reversal in respective LTF (5m/15m) at FVG zone. 6. Take the trade only once clear entry model i.e. turtle soup. iFVG break, CDS or MSS happens on LTF All these combinations are signalling a high probability and ~8R trade scenario. Note – if you liked this analysis, please boost the idea so that other can also get benefit of it. Also follow me for notification for incoming ideas. Also Feel free to comment if you have any input to share. Join me on live stream for real time update. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) and check with your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by HareeyMarketMantraah
3
AI Trading Profits1. What Is AI Trading? AI trading refers to the use of machine learning models, algorithms, and automation to analyze markets, predict price movements, and execute trades. Unlike traditional trading, where decisions depend on human judgment, AI uses data patterns to make logical, emotion-free decisions. AI trading systems usually combine: Machine Learning Models Neural Networks Natural Language Processing (NLP) High-frequency trading (HFT) algorithms Automated execution engines These systems can scan thousands of indicators, news events, and market variables in seconds — something that is impossible for a human trader. 2. How AI Trading Generates Profits AI earns profits primarily through accuracy, speed, pattern recognition, and disciplined execution. Let’s break it down: a) Predictive Accuracy AI systems analyze past price action, volume, volatility, order flow, sentiment, and macro data to forecast short-term or long-term price movements. Profits are generated when AI predicts: Trend continuation Trend reversal Breakouts Market structure shifts High-probability entry and exit points A well-trained AI model can identify winning setups with higher precision than manual analysis. b) Speed and Efficiency Markets move fast — especially in intraday or high-frequency trading. AI reacts in microseconds, allowing it to: Enter and exit trades before retail traders react Capture small price inefficiencies Take advantage of rapid sentiment changes This speed gives AI a competitive edge that converts directly into profits. c) Removing Human Emotions Human traders often suffer from: Fear Greed Overtrading Emotional reactions Confirmation bias AI avoids all emotional biases. Once trained, it follows logic-based rules, improving consistency and profitability. d) 24/7 Market Monitoring AI never sleeps. It continuously scans market conditions, technical signals, global news, and sentiment changes. This constant monitoring allows AI to: Identify opportunities instantly Avoid bad trades React faster to volatility The result? More accurate trades and higher profit probability. e) Backtesting and Optimization Before trading live, AI models test strategies on historical data. This process includes: Validating accuracy Measuring risk-reward Fine-tuning indicators Eliminating unprofitable setups Backtesting ensures that only statistically profitable strategies go live. 3. AI Trading Strategies Used for Profit AI can be deployed in multiple trading styles. Each strategy targets different types of profits: **1. Trend-Following Algorithms AI identifies strong bullish or bearish trends early and rides them until the trend weakens. It predicts: Higher highs/lows Momentum strength Trend exhaustion Profits come from capturing major directional moves. **2. Mean Reversion AI Models AI detects when prices deviate too far from their average (mean). It forecasts when price is likely to: Bounce Revert back Correct after overbuying/overselling Profits come from short-term rebounds. **3. Breakout and Breakdown Detection AI is excellent at spotting breakout patterns before they occur. It analyzes: Volume spikes Liquidity clusters Pressure zones Market structure Profits come from sharp moves after a breakout or breakdown. **4. High-Frequency Trading (HFT) HFT uses ultra-fast algorithms to profit from small price changes. AI helps: Detect micro-patterns Execute instantly Create thousands of tiny profitable trades This strategy generates small but consistent profits. **5. Arbitrage Trading AI identifies price differences between: Exchanges Brokers Markets Derivatives vs spot It instantly buys low and sells high, locking in risk-free profits. **6. Sentiment Analysis-Based Trading AI uses NLP to scan: News Social media Analyst reports Earnings updates Economic data It converts sentiment into actionable trades. Example: detecting early negative sentiment before a stock falls. **7. Options AI Trading AI is widely used in options due to complex pricing dynamics. It predicts: Implied volatility Premium movement Option Greeks shifts Probability of strike price touching Profits come from precision in volatility forecasting. 4. Why AI Trading Is So Profitable 1. Pattern Detection Beyond Human Capability AI sees patterns in data that humans can’t detect. 2. Ability to Process Massive Data Millions of data points are processed per second. 3. Discipline and Consistency AI stays consistent in all market conditions. 4. Lightning-Fast Execution AI acts instantly when price levels hit. 5. Adaptability AI models adjust to changing market conditions by retraining or rebalancing strategies. 5. Real-World Examples of AI Trading Profitability Hedge Funds Many funds using AI (e.g., Renaissance Technologies, DE Shaw) have generated billions in returns, outperforming traditional traders. Banks J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citi use AI to improve: Risk models Trade execution Market predictions Retail Traders With AI bots and automated systems, retail traders can: Avoid emotional mistakes Trade professionally Increase win rate 6. Risks and Limitations of AI Trading Even though AI can be highly profitable, it is not foolproof. Risks include: 1. Overfitting Model becomes too dependent on past data and fails in live markets. 2. Black Swan Events AI struggles during unexpected market crashes. 3. Data Quality Issues Wrong data = wrong predictions. 4. High Cost of Development Reliable AI models require: Huge data sets Expensive training High computational power 5. Excessive Confidence Believing AI is 100% accurate can lead to unnecessary risk. 7. Final Summary AI trading generates profits by: Predicting market movements with high accuracy Executing trades at lightning speed Eliminating emotional decisions Continuously learning and adapting Identifying micro-patterns invisible to humans While it can be extremely profitable, success depends on good strategy, quality data, and proper risk management.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDEducation
by TechnicalExpress
Bitcoin's Death Cross is Here: A crash with a message to all!BITSTAMP:BTCUSD has just delivered one of its most significant reality ✔ checks of the year — the recent crash wasn’t simply a dip; it was a multi-layered market unwind that exposes the current fragility of the crypto ecosystem. 📉 Current Bitcoin Situation: “From Euphoria to Uncertainty” Bitcoin’s trend shifted rapidly over the past few weeks. Spot ETFs that once fueled relentless upside have significantly slowed inflows, with some days printing net outflows as retail enthusiasm cooled and institutions trimmed exposure. Meanwhile: Over billions in long liquidations hit in some days. Funding flipped aggressively negative Sentiment turned from greed → hesitation High beta alts saw steeper collapses, showing risk-off behavior This wasn’t random volatility — it was a controlled flush triggered by structural weakness. 🔥 Why Bitcoin Crashed: The Real Story 🔹 Technical Factors BTC lost a major support cluster after multiple failed attempts to hold the mid-range. Open interest was overheated, creating the perfect setup for a liquidation cascade. Price rejected sharply from a supply zone that aligns with the weekly imbalance. ☠️ Death Cross on Daily Time Frame: Now Confirmed The 50 SMA crossing below the 200 SMA is not a “doom event” by itself… But historically, Bitcoin rarely ignores this signal, especially when paired with weakening momentum and fading liquidity. ⚠ The last major Death Cross? 2022’s brutal bear continuation, which led to several months of grinding downside before any meaningful reversal. The current structure looks uncomfortably similar: Lower highs printing consistently Loss of trend strength Distribution patterns on higher time frames Declining demand from smart money inflows This isn’t fearmongering — it’s observation. 🔹 Fundamental + Macro Factors ETF inflow cooldown = reduced demand pressure Miners started selling into strength to stabilize income post-difficulty adjustment Global markets leaned risk-off due to macro tightening Whales began distributing quietly (confirmed by on-chain inflow spikes into exchanges) When technical fragility meets fundamental slowdown, crashes are not accidents — they’re consequences. 🐋 Whales Are Selling: “When the quiet money moves, the market reacts loud.” On-chain data over the last week showed: Increase in exchange inflows from large wallets Spot distribution from old long-term holders ETF issuers are reducing inventory during downswings This behavior is classic: Whales distribute during periods of retail excitement… Retail panics during whale exits… And the crash becomes a self-fulfilling cycle. 📅 4–6 Week Forecast: “Chop, Pain & Opportunity” Over the next month or so, the market will likely experience: Sideways-to-down structure Failed rally attempts near the 50 SMA Whip-saw price action due to low conviction Accumulation pockets are forming quietly BITSTAMP:BTCUSD needs to reclaim the 50 SMA with strength before a clean trend resumes. Until then, volatility ≠ strength. 🎯 Conclusion: Re-Investment Zones & Smart Accumulation Crashes are emotional for most, but strategic for the prepared. This is not a call to rush. It’s a reminder: Smart money enters when sentiment collapses. Dumb money enters when sentiment peaks. Analyze. Prepare. Don’t chase. 🧩 Comment down below 👇 and let’s talk about how to overcome it — build awareness together as traders, not competitors. If this Idea gave you valuable information, then please boost it, and follow for more practical trading! Happy Trading & Investing! Team @TradeWithKeshhav ⚡
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by TradeWithKeshhav
weekly candle relief || BTCThe market is correcting, not crashing, and is currently positioned at a critical decision zone. As long as $70K holds, the bull market structure remains intact, with a potential upside resumption expected in 2025, provided the support continues to hold. The EMA 100 (Weekly) is currently around $85,400, with price sitting just below it—indicating short-term weakness. A reclaim of this level would be strongly bullish. We can also observe a long weekly hammer candle forming over the past couple of weeks, with its low testing the $70K level. If this support fails, the market may continue to experience extended downside pressure, with no clear end to the current bearish phase Disclaimer- This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any trading or investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by nikhilvishwakarma322
Bitcoin’Smart Money Setup: $80K Drop Before $108K Rebound!Bitcoin is currently trading near $102,000 after showing multiple signs of exhaustion at the top. I expect BTC to drop toward the $80,000 zone — this will likely act as a liquidity grab or a correction phase. From there, a short-term bounce toward $108,000 could trap late buyers before the major macro downtrend begins. Next year, Bitcoin may form its final cycle bottom near $50,000, where long-term accumulation could restart. This setup reflects a smart money distribution pattern — first a correction, then a fake rally, and finally a deeper decline. 📊 Levels to Watch: Short-term Target: $80,000 Reversal Bounce: $108,000 Long-term Bottom: $50,000
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by sushilrawat
2
BTC strong down trend and high RnR sell scenario..BTC is in strong down trend and broke ~ 90K level and targeting further downside levels of 82K and 75K. Price is continuously forming lower highs and BoS. Price has formed a BOS on hourly chart and approaching 1h FVG. We may expect a rejection pattern in LTF inside FVG and further downfall. 1. Price is in strong down trend and formed 1H FVG after creating BOS. 2. FVG is formed on weekly quadrant level, making it more significant, 3. Price is now approaching FVG 4. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVG/RDRB level and create MSS/CISD/TS/iFVG in LTF. 5. Price should show rejection/reversal in respective LTF (5m/15m) at FVG zone. 6. Take the trade only once clear entry model i.e. turtle soup. iFVG break, CDS or MSS happens on LTF All these combinations are signalling a high probability and ~8R trade scenario. Note – if you liked this analysis, please boost the idea so that other can also get benefit of it. Also follow me for notification for incoming ideas. Also Feel free to comment if you have any input to share. Join me on live stream for real time update. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) and check with your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by HareeyMarketMantraah
1
Bitcoin ShortBTC/USD – Multi-TF Bias & Current Price Action Analysis ✅ 1. Multi-Timeframe Bias Summary Weekly → Bearish Daily → Bearish 4H → Bearish 2H → Bearish 1H → Bearish 30min → Bearish 15min → Bullish rice Structure on Your Chart Current Price: around $92,091 You have marked a red zone above price which looks like: 🔴 Supply / Resistance Zone – $93,000 to $95,000 This zone has: Previous swing failure Break of structure from this level Heavy selling wick rejections This means: 📌 If price goes back into 93–95k → probability of rejection is high.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by Trade365days
1
BTC 15M Analysis – Rising Wedge Rejection at TrendlineBitcoin is currently trading right under a major falling trendline (green dashed). On the lower timeframe, price formed a rising wedge, a classic bearish reversal pattern. The latest candle shows clear rejection from the wedge top + trendline confluence, indicating seller strength. 🔻 Why This Looks Bearish Strong rejection from the macro downtrend line Rising wedge pattern showing exhaustion Price still forming lower highs Selling pressure inside the red supply zone Momentum weakening while approaching resistance 🎯 Trade Setup (Based on Chart) Entry: Near wedge breakdown Stop-Loss: Above the wedge + above downtrend line Target: Liquidity zone around $81,000 – $81,200 Risk–Reward: High (large green target area) 🧭 Market Bias As long as Bitcoin stays below the falling trendline, bearish bias remains valid.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by FinanciallyFreedomTrader
Bitcoin AI Tool data showing oversold start buying for long termParameters Data Asset Name : Price 🟥 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) : 84,528.42 Price Movement 🟥 Downmove will continue to 82,700, 81,000 if break 81,000 then breakdown Until 86,000 not break if break then 87,500, 89,000 possible. Reason 🟥 Fading Rate Cut Hopes & Risk-off Sentiment: US Fed ki hawkish commentary aur tech stocks ki selling se risk assets se funds nikal rahe hain. Confidence 🟥 Bearish 11/30 Bullish , Avoid , Bearish (36.67% score Below 40% hai, isliye Red/Bearish.) Probability 🟥 65% Downside/Consolidation: Technical indicators aur fundamental sentiment strongly negative hain. R:R 🟨 Neutral: Current low level par, aggressive short entry ka R:R unfavorable ho sakta hai, par long side ka risk high hai. FNO Data 🟥 High Liquidations: Recent crash mein $19 Billion ke liquidations hue hain, jo sentiment ko fragile bana rahe hain. Liquidity Zones 🟩 Support Zone: $82,000 - $81,000 (Recent Lows) 🟥 Resistance Zone: $86,000 - $87,500 (Previous Close / 14-Day RSI at 30% area) Max Pain 🟨 N/A (No specific Max Pain data found) DEMA Levels 🟥 20 DEMA: $88,757.25 50 DEMA: $88,626.7 100 DEMA: N/A 200 DEMA: N/A 250 DEMA: N/A (Price sabhi major short-term MAs ke neeche hai, Strong Sell signal.) Supports 🟥 S1: $82,709 S2: $82,027 S3: N/A Resistances 🟥 R1: $87,479 R2: $88,757 R3: $90,623 ADX/RSI/DMI 🟥 RSI(14): 45.123 (Neutral, Bearish ki taraf) MACD: -1557.800 (Sell) ADX: 32.216 (Strong Trend, Selling side) Market Depth 🟥 Sell-biased (Heavy selling pressure at upper levels) Volatility 🟩 High (ATR(14) $1760.4453. High Volatility dikhata hai.) Source Ledger 🟩 Coinbase / Binance / Investing.com (Verified sources used) OI 🟥 High OI / Decreasing: High open interest ab liquidations ke through kam ho raha hai. PCR 🟨 N/A (No explicit PCR data available) VWAP 🟥 Sell (Price VWAP ke neeche trade kar raha hai) Turnover 🟥 High (Selling) (Volume high on days with falling prices.) Harmonic Pattern 🟨 N/A IV/RV 🟩 IV High: Implied Volatility high hai. Options Skew 🟥 Bearish Skew (Put options ki demand zyada hai.) Vanna/Charm 🟨 N/A (Advanced Greeks data not available) Block Trades 🟨 N/A (No immediate Block Trades reported) COT Positioning 🟥 Bearish (Sentiment deteriorating sharply.) Cross‑Asset Correlation 🟥 High Correlation to Risk-Off: Tech stocks aur risk-off sentiment se negative correlation. ETF Rotation 🟥 Negative Flow (Spot Bitcoin ETFs mein selling dekhi gayi.) Sentiment Index 🟥 Extreme Fear/Sell OFI 🟨 N/A (Order Flow Imbalance data not explicitly available) Delta 🟨 N/A (Options Delta data not explicitly available) VWAP Bands 🟥 Price below VWAP (Bearish indication) Rotation Metrics 🟨 N/A
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
BTCUSD – Updated Technical AnalysisPrice broke $81,795 (0.236 Fib) with strong bearish candles. This confirms continuation of the downtrend, not a temporary dip. RSI continuously making lower highs RSI is now near oversold zone but not yet reversed Strong Support 1: $78,000 – $76,500 Strong Support 2: $72,000 – $70,000 Harmonic / Trendline Final Support: $68,200 BTC is currently: Below trendline Below EMA(s) Below 0.236 RSI in a strong downtrend Lower lows forming BTC is in a clear downtrend. It just broke a major support level RSI is also trending down strongly No bullish signals yet The next major reversal zone is $72k–$68k. Disclaimer- All information provided is for educational and informational purposes only. Crypto markets are highly volatile, and any trading or investing decision you make is strictly at your own risk. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any financial decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by nikhilvishwakarma322
POI ? Point Of InterestPoint Of Interest A Point of Interest is a specific price zone or level on the chart where institutional traders (smart money) are likely to have significant activity — such as placing liquidity, stopping out retail traders, or entering/exiting large positions. Traders look for POIs to find high-probability areas for trade entries, especially in reversal or continuation setups. Common Types of POIs *Order Block (OB) *Fair Value Gap (FVG) *Liquidity Pool How Traders Use POIs Mark the POI on higher timeframes (daily, 4H). Wait for price to return to the POI (discount for bullish OB, premium for bearish OB). Look for confirmation on lower timeframes (change of character, market structure shift, displacement). Enter in the direction of the original impulse that created the POI.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by romitkumar
MARKET CONTEXT BTC H1 I NOV.221. Market Overview Main Trend: BTC is currently in a correction phase following the drop from the highs (92,000+ area). Price is moving sideways within a wide range defined by the Volume Profile. Current Position: Price is trading around $83,959, positioned just below the POC (Point of Control) and below the Daily Open ($85,054). The fact that price is below the daily open suggests that selling pressure is slightly dominant in today's session. Trendline Structure: There is a descending trendline (dashed black line) connecting lower highs. The price attempted a breakout above this line but is currently showing signs of a retest or potentially a weakness (fakeout). 2. Price Action Analysis Key Resistance Zones: POC Zone (84,250 - 85,054): This is the area with the highest traded volume. Price is currently stuck right below this zone. Specifically, the $85,054 (Daily Open) level is a critical barrier. If BTC fails to reclaim this, the short-term bearish trend will continue. VAH Zone (87,764 - 87,983): This is the extended target if the Bulls manage to regain control (Value Area High). Key Support Zones: Descending Trendline: Price is retesting this breakout line (around the 83,000 - 83,500 area). VAL Zone (81,329 - 81,441): This is the Value Area Low. This serves as the final line of defense for buyers before prices potentially drop deeper. 3. Price Scenarios & Signals Given the price location relative to the POC and Trendline, there are two main scenarios for today: Scenario 1: Bearish Rejection (High Probability) Since the price is below the Daily Open and struggling at the POC, bears are trying to push the price lower. Development: Price rallies slightly to the 84,200 - 84,500 area but gets rejected, leaving long upper wicks or large bearish candles. Price then slips back below the descending trendline. Signal: A 1H candle close below 83,500. Targets: TP1: 82,500 TP2: 81,441 (VAL Zone). If this level breaks, price will look for lower liquidity (79k-80k). Scenario 2: Bullish Reclaim For this scenario to play out, strong buying power (Volume) is needed to break the current indecision. Development: Price bounces strongly from the current trendline, piercing through the POC zone and closing firmly above the Daily Open. Signal: A decisive 1H candle close above 85,100 (clearing both Daily Open and POC). Targets: TP1: 86,500 TP2: 87,764 - 87,983 (VAH Zone). 4. Summary The current status of BTC is Neutral leaning Bearish (Bearish Bias) in the short term (intraday) because the price is trading below the key equilibrium zone (POC) and the Daily Open. "Kill Zone" (Watch Area): 84,000 - 85,000. This zone will decide the trend for the day. Recommended Action: Short: Look for reversal/rejection signals around 84,500 or if the price breaks back down below the trendline at 83,500. Stop loss above 85,200. Long: Only enter if the price confirms a breakout above 85,100 (Reclaim POC) or wait to buy the dip at the hard support of 81,441 (VAL) if a reversal signal appears there. Avoid Longing in the current "middle of nowhere" zone. Disclaimer: The analysis and information provided above are for educational and informational purposes only and do not constitute financial investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) and take full responsibility for your trading decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarksMelanie8855
Bitcoin is in a clean daily downtrend right nowBitcoin is in a clean daily downtrend right now – every bounce is just providing fuel for the next leg until the structure says otherwise. Good evening traders, Brian here with a higher-timeframe look at BTCUSD. Fundamental analysis Bitcoin has been under sustained pressure even as some funds continue to accumulate spot positions. A few key points: Macro uncertainty and tighter dollar liquidity are weighing on high-beta assets. While gold has held up relatively well, the performance gap between BTC and XAU has been widening in recent weeks, highlighting a clear risk-off tone towards crypto. On-chain and fund flows suggest that a number of crypto investors are actually de-risking and pulling capital out, which reduces market depth and makes downside moves more violent when liquidity is thin. Narrative is still mixed: long-term holders and some institutions are happy to buy lower, but in the short term the order flow is dominated by forced selling, deleveraging and risk reduction. Bottom line: the macro backdrop does not yet justify an aggressive “buy the dip” approach on BTC. Trend-following shorts remain safer than trying to call the bottom. Technical analysis Daily structure is clearly bearish: We have a confirmed market structure shift on the left of the chart, with the prior higher-low support broken and a series of decisive lower lows since then. The main bullish trendline from earlier in the year has given way, and price is now travelling within a steep descending leg. BTC recently tagged the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the last major swing, aligning with a prior liquidity pocket. That produced a sharp intraday bounce, but so far it looks like a reaction inside a downtrend, not a full reversal. Around 75.4k we have an important daily support zone. If this level is broken and accepted below, it opens the door to a deeper flush towards the next large support band lower on the chart. Overhead, there is a clean imbalance/FVG and prior distribution area around 108k, with an intermediate resistance block around 96–97k and a nearer supply zone around 88k. These are prime locations to look for fresh shorts if price retraces. For now my bias is simple: look to sell rallies into premium levels; any longs are tactical, short-term trades off key support only. Key levels Resistance / short zones: 88,000 – first reaction zone, “pay attention to the reaction” 96,500–97,200 – main short entry area for medium-term positions 108,000 – higher FVG / major daily supply Support / long-only intraday zones: 75,400 – key support + 1.618 Fib/liquidity zone 74,000–72,000 – deeper support if 75.4k fails Trade scenarios (for reference, not financial advice) 1. Short the first meaningful pullback – 88k area Entry: 88,000 Stop: 90,000 (above local structure) Targets: 82,000 → 78,000 → 75,500 Idea: treat 88k as the first supply zone in a downtrend. If price bounces from current levels and stalls here, I’m looking for rejection (wick rejections, failed break, or a clear shift in intraday structure) to join the trend. Once price moves in favour, I would look to pull the stop to breakeven and let the position run. 2. Core swing short – 96.5k–97.2k zone Entry: 96,500–97,200 Stop: 99,000 Targets: 88,000 → 82,000 → 75,500 This is my preferred “medium-term” sell area. It aligns with a more significant daily supply block and offers better risk–reward if the larger bearish leg continues. Any squeeze into this region after a series of lower lows is, in my view, a controlled opportunity to reload shorts. 3. Tactical long only at deep support Entry: 75,400–74,800 Stop: 73,800 Targets: 82,000 → 88,000 Here I would only consider a short-term long if we see a clean liquidity sweep into the 1.618 extension and strong rejection (long lower wicks, aggressive buy-back). The idea is simply to trade the bounce back into resistance, not to fight the higher-timeframe downtrend. If BTC loses 75.4k and starts closing below it on the daily, I would become much more cautious on any long exposure and focus almost entirely on short setups towards the lower “important support” zone on the chart. Trade with the trend, respect your risk, and don’t get trapped trying to be a hero at the bottom of a falling market. If this BTC breakdown adds value to your plan, make sure you follow Brian for more daily BTC and gold analysis, and share your own view in the comments so we can compare scenarios.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital