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Trend Analysis and its Characteristics.MCX:GOLD1! What is Trend and how to identify it? A trend is the overall direction of a market or an asset's price. an uptrend is defined using peak and trough analysis. An uptrend is represented by a series of successively higher highs (peaks) and lows (troughs), while a downtrend is represented by a series of successively lower highs and lows. ->One can identify it by determining peaks and troughs. ->By using trendlines ->Price remaining above or below an overlay indicator. we can quickly identify the general direction of a market or an asset by looking at the price chart but what we have to learn is to identify the quality of the current trend and how we can do that, by gauging the strength of the trend. Here are some significant points which help us in understanding the mood and quality of a trend. The highest skill any trader can aspire to is the ability to read pure price action. 1. Cycle Amplitude Look for decreasing cycle amplitude in uptrends and downtrends. A decrease in cycle amplitude in an uptrend is an early indication that there may potentially be an underlying weakness in the uptrend. In a similar fashion, a decrease in cycle amplitude in a downtrend is regarded as a bullish indication. 2. Cycle Period A gradual reduction in the cycle period during an uptrend is an early indication that there may potentially be an underlying weakness in the uptrend and a gradual reduction in the cycle period during the downtrend is a bullish indication. 3.Average Bar Range A decrease in the average bar range in an uptrend and downtrend is an early indication of potential weakness in the current trend. -> you can track the bar range using the average true range (ATR) oscillator 4.Bar Retracement Symmetry A change in the number of bars in a retracement is also an early indication of a potential change in trend behaviour. 5. Average Candlestick Real Body to Range Ratio A gradual decrease in the real body to candlestick range is also an early indication of potential weakness in a Trend. 6. Angular Symmetry and Momentum Any change in the Angle of trend is significant:- i.) An upside acceleration in price is bullish whereas an upside deceleration in price is bearish ii.) A downside acceleration in price is bearish whereas a downside deceleration in price is bullish. #It should be noted that although an upside acceleration in price is bullish, the uptrend may not be self‐sustaining if the rate of ascent was excessive. Such rapid increases in price usually end in a blow-off or buying climax with prices subsequently collapsing. Similarly, downside acceleration in prices may also end in a selling climax. 7. Frequency and Depth of Trend-Based Oscillations When a trend moves with reasonable retracements not too short and not too big, it indicates a healthy trend which has profit taking along the way as the trend unfolds. Traders and investors tend not to react as emotionally and irrationally at higher prices where the risk of losing pent‐up and unrealized profit is greater. 8.Relative Measure of Consolidation Size and Duration Trend interruptions are more significant if: ■ Price formations are of greater magnitude (taller chart patterns). ■ Price formations develop over a longer period (wider chart patterns). Larger trend interruptions normally tend to lead to a greater probability of a reversal. In a strong uptrend, a larger head and shoulders formation would be deemed more bearish than a smaller formation. Similarly, a larger rounding bottom formation would be more bullish than a smaller one in a downtrend. In short, size takes precedence over form. Moreover, the longer it takes for a consolidation to unfold, the greater will be its disruptive power with respect to the trend, should a reversal occur. By considering these characteristics while analysing trend will give a in depth insight and helps in making more informed and rational decisions. I Hope you found this helpful. Please like and comment. Keep Learning, Happy Trading!
Editors' picks
MCX:GOLD1!Education
by SANJAYPATIDAR_
40
Cup & Handle Pattern In GOLD. Breakout can give 10000+ rally!!!Gold Future indicating the cup and Handle Technical Pattern. According to the pattern if this gives breakout of 56200 level then expected next target upto 67150+ in long term. This pattern will fail if gold started trading below 52900. Can see gold as a good investment opportunity in this downtrend global market session. Disclaimer: This is my personal view on the GOLD. Consider this post as an education purpose only and not any type of recommendation. Consult your financial advisor before taking any investment decision.
MCX:GOLD1!Long
by TradZoo
Gold: Ready to Shoot?Gold and Silver is money, everything else is credit – JP Morgan Primary Uptrend This guy is not just flaunting these assets but the primary trend in this chart unearths the truth behind his statement. Really strong trend since our childhood – of course not fully visible due to data limitations. A furious rally started since March 2020 dip and took it to 56191 from 38400 (46%) in just 20 weeks – perhaps the fastest one in absolute terms. Harsh Reaction Like any other bull run, this one also faced a harsh reaction from August 2020. Wiped out almost one-fifth of the gains (21% from top) in a 33week time period. Comparing to Mar2020 rally to the top, this reaction was bit slower in terms of time duration. 46% in 20weeks verses 21% in 33weeks. More than just a Pullback Gold pulled back near 50000 mark and created a psychological resistance zone. The pullback gained momentum after breaking this zone and retested all time high zone. This spike was more than just a pullback. The Second Reaction The second reaction started from March 2022 and ended near the prior psychological level 50000. So, resistance turned into a support. This reaction took 28 weeks but the reaction was just 12% from the March top. Comparing with the Aug2020 reaction, this one lacked momentum on the downside – as reaction was smaller in approximately same time period. The price-time analysis of both the reactions suggest that this time sellers were not very active and buyers were busy in accumulation at lower levels. Small and time consuming reactions with sharp rallies are good omen for investors. Momentum Rally The current rally from Sep end 2022 is very swift. The price may face some hurdles near major resistance zone of 56191 to 54789. If the higher low trend persists, there may be further congestion. Theoretically congestions lead to expansions and the bullish nature of the ascending triangle congestion (see chart) signals expansion in the upward direction. If that happens, an immediate target for the triangle could go around 67000. Thanks for reading and don't forget to boost/like.
MCX:GOLD1!Long
by Bravetotrade
3
Golden opportunity to buy some GOLD!!GOLD: The idea for Investment point of view-- As per Elliott I have marked my numbering & shared it here.. Here wave 1 got terminated at the 32500 level & wave 2 got retraced till 26925, where it tested recent support. Wave 3 is in extended mode and got terminated at 56298 & wave 4 got retraced till 44073 ( as I am monthly TF, so I am expecting simple corrections) & currently I am in wave 5 Projections as per fibonnaci-- wave 3 got super extended as shared (extreme bullishness), and wave 4 got retraced to 38% level. Now, let's talk about recent resistance & projections-- Resistance, check TL and if we talk about projections it should be somewhere above 38% to 61% extended till 100% , both chart shared.
MCX:GOLD1!Long
by ShubhamKatiyar
Gold- 60K+ possibleLooking at monthly chart for Gold, there are multiple technical parameters that are asking for a buy. After the top, gold fell to almost 44k which Fibonacci level of 0.618 on Monthly chart. It reversed from there and now forming a Cup and Handle Pattern along within a flag formation. This is a deadly combination for a big up move. This is important considering this is a monthly chart and has great significance. Considering this crosses 56K which is a strong resistance, it can move above 60K levels.
MCX:GOLD1!Long
by Chartworld1