Black Friday saleUp to 70% OFF

INDIAN RUPEE / U.S. DOLLAR

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals Economic Calendar

INRUSD trade ideas

USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe pair was traded between 82.82 and 82.95. The currency pair continues to be in the narrow range. The good part is that the upside has gradually brought down from 83.30 to below 83. The Currency market seems to have lost the shine as most of the currencies are moving in a narrow range waiting for a trigger event. There is no action and best we can assume that the band is marginally lowered to 82.80 83.00. A few observations a. There is divergence seen in the charts b. The currency pair does not seem to follow the DXY, Stocks or the Precious metals c. Expect the range of 82.70 - 83.00 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 • As noted in our 3rd July Blog: o Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects o A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. o The result is that it has extended to third quarter as well. The same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. o The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 • The currency pair is at a crucial level on a trend line from Nov 22, a break now or not in near future will be known this month • The next couple of weeks are crucial. We will get to know if we are heading towards 82.30 or 83.50 Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair continues to be in a the narrow range The pair traded between 82.81 and 83.01. it appears that the pair is behaving like CNY, as we observe that both the sides are protected and there is no action and best we can assume that the band is marginally lowered to 82.80 83.10. A few observations a. Expect the range of 82.70 - 82.90 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. b. Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects c. There is divergence seen in the charts A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 As noted in our 3rd July Blog: A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. The result is that it has extended to third quarter as well The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 The currency pair is at a crucial level on a trend line from Nov 22, a break now or not in near future is the daunting question The next couple of weeks are crucial. We will get to know if we are heading towards 82.50 or 83.50. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair is back to the narrow range The pair traded between 82.93 and 83.11. it appears that the pair is behaving like CNY, as we observe that both the sides are protected and there is no action and best we can assume that the band is marginally lowered to 82.85 83.15. A few observations a. Expect the range of 82.80 - 83.15 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires reassessment of risk/direction and target. b. Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects c. There is divergence seen in the charts A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 As noted in our 3rd July Blog: A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. The result is that it has extended to third quarter as well The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 The next couple of weeks are crucial. We will get to know if we are heading towards 82.50 or 83.50 Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair is back to the narrow range The pair traded between 82.97 and 83.06. With both sides being protected, there is least or no action and it appears that the pair is behaving like CNY. At best we can assume that the band is marginally lowered to 82.85 83.15. A few observations a. Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects b. There is divergence seen in the charts Expect the range of 82.80 - 83.15 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires reassessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 • As noted in our 3rd July Blog: o A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. o The result is that it has extended to third quarter as well o The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 • The next couple of weeks are crucial. We will get to know if we are heading towards 82.50 or 83.50 Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair did a quick attempt of 82.83 and was back again closer to 83 levels. We saw the pair traded between 83.83 and 83.16. At best we can assume that the band is marginally lowered to 82.85 83.15. A few observations a. There is divergence seen in the charts b. The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 c. Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects There appears a fair chance for the pair to trade towards 82.33 at least for short period in the coming weeks. Expect the range of 82.80 - 83.15 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires reassessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 • As noted in our 3rd July Blog: o A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. o The result is that it has extended to third quarter as well • The next couple of weeks are crucial. We will get to know if we are heading towards 82.50 or 83.50 Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair is once again back in to the narrow range regime. We saw the pair traded between 83.05 and 83.16. At best we can assume that the band is marginally lowered to 82.85 83.15. A few observations a. Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects b. There is divergence seen in the charts c. The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 Expect the range of 82.80 - 83.15 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires reassessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 • As noted in our 3rd July Blog: o A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. o The result is that it has extended to third quarter as well • The next couple of weeks are crucial. We will get to know if we are heading towards 82.50 or 83.50 Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair gave great hopes when it finally gave indications of a possible shift lower towards 82.50 at least. However, as luck would have it the equity sell-off triggered the sentiments negative and witnessed sudden surge of buying interest to lift the prices above 83. At best we can assume that the band is marginally lowered to 82.85 83.15. A few observations The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects Expect the range of 82.70 - 83.15 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires reassessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 • As noted in our 3rd July Blog: o A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. o The result is that it has extended to third quarter as well • As observed in the previous blog, still there are fair chances of the breaking lower towards 82.50, at least for a short period Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
2
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair finally shows signs of moving out of the 83.00-83.35 range after almost 3 quarters. In the past we have seen that when every time the pair comes closer to 83 there is a good amount of buying interest. With weekly closing below 83, we may see sellers emerging. A few observations Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects Lower crude prices keep the demand for USD. After having seen the big move of 74 in Jan 22 to 83 in Oct 22, The Importers seem to Hedge themselves fully and the exporters may be waiting and might be repenting for having missed higher levels The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 Expect the range of 82.70 - 83.15 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires reassessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 As noted in our 3rd July Blog: A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. The result is that it has extended to third quarter as well A fresh start with New year and new quarter, the question still remains 81.50 or 85.50? As observed in the previous blog, there are fair chances of the breaking lower towards 82.50, at least for a short period Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair is witnessing surprise action as it moved from the high of 83.09 to 83.35. The market is refusing to believe this move as it has wedded to the logic that the currency pair will not be allowed to trade below 83.00 levels. They had seen that the currency stable irrespective any big move in DXY, Yields or Stock market. As observed in the previous blog: A few observations Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 Lower crude prices keep the demand for USD. After having seen the big move of 74 in Jan 22 to 83 in Oct 22, The Importers seem to Hedge themselves fully and the exporters may be waiting and might be repenting for having missed higher levels Expect the range of 83.10-83.35 would continue to hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 As noted in our 3rd July Blog: A deeper correction is long overdue. Market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. The result is that it has extended to second quarter as well We have been witnessing depreciation for the past 12 years starting 2011 with exception of 2017 A fresh start with New year and New quarter, the question still remains 81.50 or 85.50? Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR_IN CONSOLIDATION PHASEA consolidation zone, also known as a trading range, occurs when a stock's price moves within a relatively narrow range, exhibiting neither a clear uptrend nor downtrend. Traders and investors often refer to this period as a "sideways market" or "range-bound market." Identifying stocks in a consolidation zone can be useful for traders who employ range-bound strategies. Here are some key characteristics of stocks in consolidation: #Horizontal Price Movement: Prices move within a defined range, creating horizontal support and resistance levels. The stock neither makes significant higher highs nor lower lows. #Decreased Volatility: Volatility tends to decrease during consolidation. The price swings are smaller compared to trends, and there is less directional momentum. Stable Trading Patterns: Traders may observe repeating patterns within the consolidation range, such as channels or rectangles. These patterns can help identify potential breakout or breakdown points. #Volume Analysis: Trading volume often decreases during consolidation. A breakout or breakdown accompanied by an increase in volume can signal a potential change in trend. #Indicators and Oscillators: Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) may show reduced momentum during consolidation. Overbought or oversold conditions may be less pronounced. #Duration of Consolidation: The length of time a stock spends in consolidation can vary, ranging from days to weeks or even months. Longer consolidation periods may precede more significant price movements. News and Catalysts: Consolidation can be influenced by a lack of significant news or catalysts, creating a period of uncertainty for market participants. #Breakout or Breakdown Potential: Traders often watch for a breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support to initiate trades. Confirmation of a breakout or breakdown is crucial for avoiding false signals.
by Pranay_Kamdi
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair is witnessing surprise action as it moved from the high of 84.41 to 82.93. The market is refusing to believe this move as it has wedded to the logic that the currency pair will not be allowed to trade below 83.00 levels. They had seen that the currency stable irrespective any big move in DXY, Yields or Stock market. As observed in the previous blog: A few observations Lower crude prices keep the demand for USD. After having seen the big move of 74 in Jan 22 to 83 in Oct 22, The Importers seem to Hedge themselves fully and the exporters may be waiting and might be repenting for having missed higher levels The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects In the earlier occasions the move towards 82.90 reversed quickly. It remains to be seen how far this would go. There is always a slip between the cup and the lip. Expect the range of 82.70-83.15 would continue to hold for the week with a crucial support at 82. 70 and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 As noted in our 3rd July Blog: A deeper correction is long overdue. Market is expecting 82.70-83.10 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. The result is that it has extended to second quarter as well and seeing some movement towards the close of the quarter/year We have been witnessing depreciation for the past 12 years starting 2011 with exception of 2017  Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair continues its narrow range with a marginal shift on the higher side, Viz. 83.24-83.41. As observed in the previous blogs, at best we can see marginal shifting of the range by 0.10 on either side. The currency pair does not seem to be impacted by moves in DXY, Yields or Stock market/ It appears like mimicking CNY action/control. As observed in the previous blog: A few observations Lower crude prices keep the demand for USD. After the big move of 74in Jan 22 to 83 in Oct 22, The Importers seem to Hedge themselves fully and the exporters may be waiting The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects Expect the range of 83.10-83.45 would continue to hold for the week with a crucial support at 82. 90 and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 7 months. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 As noted in our 3rd July Blog: A deeper correction is long overdue. Market is expecting 82.70-83.10 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. The result is that it has extended to second quarter as well with a minor difference of the range as 83.00-83.40 On analyzing the quarterly and half yearly charts, the risk on the higher side is till 85.70 followed by 86.10 which is the channel top and the down side is 77.70 We have been witnessing depreciation for the past 12 years starting 2011 with exception of 2017. We are nearing close of the end of the year. Will 2023 is be another 2017 or as usual? Monthly/Quarterly/Half yearly charts do not show significant signs of lower levels yet. Only a weekly close below 82.70 can help chances of lower levels. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogAs observed in the previous blog: At best we can see marginal shifting of the range by 0.10 on either side. The currency pair continues its narrow range with a marginal shift on the higher side, Viz. 83.24-83.41. It appears like mimicking CNY action/control. A few observations The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, It has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008. Lower crude prices keep the demand for USD. After the big move of 74in Jan 22 to 83 in Oct 22, The Importers seem to Hedge themselves fully and the exporters may be waiting on the sidelines The risky and sharp moves happen when no one expects. Expect the range of 83.00-83.45 would continue to hold for the week with a crucial support at 82.90 and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 6 months. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 As noted in our 3rd July Blog: A deeper correction is long overdue. Market is expecting 82.70-83.10 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. The result is that it has extended to second quarter as well with a minor difference of the range as 83.00-83.40 On analyzing the quarterly and half yearly charts, the risk on the higher side is till 85.70 followed by 86.10 which is the channel top and the down side is 77.70 We have been witnessing depreciation for the past 12 years starting 2011 with exception of 2017. We are nearing close of the end of the year. Will 2023 is be another 2017 or as usual? Monthly/Quarterly/Half yearly charts do not show significant signs of lower levels yet. Only a weekly close below 82.70 can help chances of lower levels. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogAfter past week’s technical glitches which temporarily saw the currency pair breach the Golden rectangle, we are back again to the glued range of 83.10-83.30. At best we can see marginal shifting of the range by 0.10 on either side. A few observations As the base gradually shifting higher closer to 83, the market is no mood to believe decline towards even 82.75 and that the Central Bank would hold 83.30 for long The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, It has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008. Lower crude prices keep the demand for USD. However, the trade deficit numbers suggest that the lower volatility is in fact helping higher non-oil imports. The risky and sharp moves happen when no one expects. Expect the range of 83.00-83.45 would continue to hold for the week with a crucial support at 82.90 and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 6 months. 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 As noted in our 3rd July Blog: A deeper correction is long overdue. Market is expecting 81.70-83.10 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 81.70. The result is that it has extended to second quarter as well with a minor difference of the range as 83.00-83.30 On analyzing the quarterly and half yearly charts, the risk on the higher side is till 85.70 followed by 86.10 which is the channel top and the down side is 77.70 We have been witnessing depreciation for the past 12 years starting 2011 with exception of 2017. We are nearing close of the tenth month. Will 2023 is be another 2017 or as usual? Monthly/Quarterly/Half yearly charts do not show significant signs of lower levels yet. Only a weekly close below 82.70 can help chances of lower levels. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogTo compensate the technical outage of trading systems which happened in the previous week which saw the pair temporarily breaching the crucial 83.32, the pair did the opposite by declining sharply towards 82.92 for the first time after last week of Sep 23. However, the euphoria was short lived and the pair is back in its original territory of 83.10-83.30. A few observations As the base gradually shifting higher closer to 83, the market is no mood to believe decline towards even 82.75 and that the Central Bank would hold 83.30 for long General psychology of the market is that the INR has to break the barrier for continuing its journey towards 85 levels and that the Central bank is holding this range. If we examine the global scenario, every central bank is fighting to protect their currency. If that be the case what is wrong in maintaining low volatility Declining crude prices should keep the trade deficit lower. However, there is a huge gap. From where this demand is met? Do not see the Central bank only as the seller The risky and sharp moves happen when no one expects. Expect the range of 83.00-83.45 would continue to hold for the week with a crucial support at 82.90 and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 On analyzing the quarterly and half yearly charts, the risk on the higher side is till 85.70 followed by 86.10 which is the channel top and the down side is 77.70 We have been witnessing depreciation for the past 12 years starting 2011 with exception of 2017. We are nearing close of the tenth month. Will 2023 is be another 2017 or as usual? Monthly/Quarterly/Half yearly charts do not show significant signs of lower levels yet. Only a weekly close below 82.70 can help chances of lower levels. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair had an exception from the range of 83.10-83.31, due to technical outage of trading systems. Looking beyond this unusual trigger, there are a few interesting observations… The market has come to a logical conclusion that the central bank would protect 83.30 and easier way is to short and wait for lower band. This eventually failed General psychology of the market is that the INR has to break the barrier for continuing its journey towards 85 levels and that the Central bank is holding this range. If we examine the global scenario, every central bank is fighting to protect their currency. If that be the case what is wrong in maintaining low volatility On an analysis of conflicts leading to change in perception of Geo-political risks there may be a scenario to “Let-Go”. The big move in INR from 75.28 to 82.80 happened 3-4 weeks after the start of Russia-Ukraine war. However, there was a deceptive down move prior to the full blown up-move. So, it’s a wait and watch? As the base gradually shifting higher closer to 83, the market is no mood to believe decline towards even 82.75 and that the Central Bank would hold 83.30 for long Alternatively, the central bank may have changed its view to Let-Go or at least shift the band a bit higher by next Rs 0.20 The risky and sharp moves happen when no one expects. Expect the range of 83.00-83.45 would continue to hold for the week with a crucial support at 83.00 and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 On analyzing the quarterly and half yearly charts, the risk on the higher side is till 85.70 followed by 86.10 which is the channel top and the down side is 77.70 We have been witnessing depreciation for the past 12 years starting 2011 with exception of 2017. We are nearing close of the tenth month. Will 2023 is be another 2017 or as usual? Monthly/Quarterly/Half yearly charts do not show significant signs of lower levels yet. Only a weekly close below 82.70 can help chances of lower levels. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR: Symmetric Pattern Formation Could Precede a Breakout USDINR is currently forming a symmetrical pattern, which is a consolidation pattern that can precede a breakout in either direction. Swing traders should wait for a clear breakout before taking a position. Trade with Symmetrical Patterns: A Simplified Guide Symmetrical triangles signal potential trend pauses or consolidations. Breakouts from these patterns often lead to strong directional moves. Key Steps: Identify the triangle: Connect lower highs and higher lows with trendlines. Determine breakout direction: Analyze the preceding trend. Place entry orders: Buy above upper trendline for uptrend breakouts, sell below lower trendline for downtrend breakouts. Set stop-loss orders: Protect profits outside the triangle's boundaries. Establish profit targets: Base targets on the triangle's height. Remember: False breakouts can occur. Use risk management to protect capital. Combine triangles with other indicators for a comprehensive approach. USDINR Price Fluctuations: Key News Events to Watch USDINR, the currency pair representing the Indian rupee against the US dollar, is highly susceptible to various news events and economic indicators. Here are some key news events to watch: Global Economic Events: US Federal Reserve monetary policy, US economic data, and global economic conditions. India-Specific News: RBI monetary policy, Indian economic data, and Indian government policies. Geopolitical Events: Political instability and regional events. Happy trading! Disclaimer : This is merely a trading idea and not a financial recommendation. It is crucial to conduct your own research and consider your investment goals and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions.
by kumaranv0410