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USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe pair below 82.80 after nearly 6 months was like a fairy tale and the story proved to be short lived. The tweezer bottom at 82.65 worked perfectly. As expected the pair attempted the long term trend line resistance at 83.09.The market witnessed a sharp move past the boxed range and the pair made a new ATH at 83.69. This comes as shocker for the market as the long protected range of 83.30-83.45 got breached The Annual closing and balance sheet related exposure hedging is likely to keep the pair well above 83 levels. A few observations a. Expect the range of 83.30 - 83.70 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. b. There is divergence seen in the charts c. The currency pair does not seem to follow DXY, Stocks or the Precious metals A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 • As noted in our 3rd July Blog: o A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. o Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects • Next couple of weeks are crucial. The final hope remains at 83.70. If this level breaches on a closing basis, then the Alligator pattern will kick-in and it would be a confirmed move towards 85.70 in the near future. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe pair drifting below 82.80 after nearly 6 months was like a fairy tale and the story proved to be short lived. The pair made a tweezer bottom at 82.65 and closed the week at 82.86. Ideally it might attempt the long term trend line resistance at 83.09 and find sellers emerging. The Currency market seems to have lost the shine as most of the currencies are moving in a narrow range waiting for a trigger event. We can expect a consolidation between 82.65 and 83.10. A few observations a. Expect the range of 82.65 - 83.09 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. b. The currency pair does not seem to follow DXY, Stocks or the Precious metals c. There is divergence seen in the charts A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 • As noted in our 3rd July Blog: o A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. o Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects • The next couple of weeks are crucial. We will get to know if we are heading towards 82.30 or 83.50 Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe pair finally closed below 82.80 after nearly 6 months. The pair was traded between 82.92 and 82.66. The good part is that the upside has gradually brought down from 83.30 to below 83. The Currency market seems to have lost the shine as most of the currencies are moving in a narrow range waiting for a trigger event. We can expect a consolidation between 82.40 and 82.90. A few observations a. The currency pair does not seem to follow the DXY, Stocks or the Precious metals b. There is divergence seen in the charts c. Expect the range of 82.40 - 82.92 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 • As noted in our 3rd July Blog: o A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. o Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects • The currency pair is at a crucial level on a trend line from Nov 22, a break now or not in near future will be known this month • The next couple of weeks are crucial. We will get to know if we are heading towards 82.30 or 83.50 Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe pair was traded between 82.82 and 82.95. The currency pair continues to be in the narrow range. The good part is that the upside has gradually brought down from 83.30 to below 83. The Currency market seems to have lost the shine as most of the currencies are moving in a narrow range waiting for a trigger event. There is no action and best we can assume that the band is marginally lowered to 82.80 83.00. A few observations a. There is divergence seen in the charts b. The currency pair does not seem to follow the DXY, Stocks or the Precious metals c. Expect the range of 82.70 - 83.00 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 • As noted in our 3rd July Blog: o Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects o A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. o The result is that it has extended to third quarter as well. The same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. o The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 • The currency pair is at a crucial level on a trend line from Nov 22, a break now or not in near future will be known this month • The next couple of weeks are crucial. We will get to know if we are heading towards 82.30 or 83.50 Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair continues to be in a the narrow range The pair traded between 82.81 and 83.01. it appears that the pair is behaving like CNY, as we observe that both the sides are protected and there is no action and best we can assume that the band is marginally lowered to 82.80 83.10. A few observations a. Expect the range of 82.70 - 82.90 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. b. Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects c. There is divergence seen in the charts A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 As noted in our 3rd July Blog: A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. The result is that it has extended to third quarter as well The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 The currency pair is at a crucial level on a trend line from Nov 22, a break now or not in near future is the daunting question The next couple of weeks are crucial. We will get to know if we are heading towards 82.50 or 83.50. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair is back to the narrow range The pair traded between 82.93 and 83.11. it appears that the pair is behaving like CNY, as we observe that both the sides are protected and there is no action and best we can assume that the band is marginally lowered to 82.85 83.15. A few observations a. Expect the range of 82.80 - 83.15 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires reassessment of risk/direction and target. b. Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects c. There is divergence seen in the charts A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 As noted in our 3rd July Blog: A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. The result is that it has extended to third quarter as well The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 The next couple of weeks are crucial. We will get to know if we are heading towards 82.50 or 83.50 Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair is back to the narrow range The pair traded between 82.97 and 83.06. With both sides being protected, there is least or no action and it appears that the pair is behaving like CNY. At best we can assume that the band is marginally lowered to 82.85 83.15. A few observations a. Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects b. There is divergence seen in the charts Expect the range of 82.80 - 83.15 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires reassessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 • As noted in our 3rd July Blog: o A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. o The result is that it has extended to third quarter as well o The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 • The next couple of weeks are crucial. We will get to know if we are heading towards 82.50 or 83.50 Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair did a quick attempt of 82.83 and was back again closer to 83 levels. We saw the pair traded between 83.83 and 83.16. At best we can assume that the band is marginally lowered to 82.85 83.15. A few observations a. There is divergence seen in the charts b. The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 c. Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects There appears a fair chance for the pair to trade towards 82.33 at least for short period in the coming weeks. Expect the range of 82.80 - 83.15 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires reassessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 • As noted in our 3rd July Blog: o A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. o The result is that it has extended to third quarter as well • The next couple of weeks are crucial. We will get to know if we are heading towards 82.50 or 83.50 Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair is once again back in to the narrow range regime. We saw the pair traded between 83.05 and 83.16. At best we can assume that the band is marginally lowered to 82.85 83.15. A few observations a. Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects b. There is divergence seen in the charts c. The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 Expect the range of 82.80 - 83.15 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires reassessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 • As noted in our 3rd July Blog: o A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. o The result is that it has extended to third quarter as well • The next couple of weeks are crucial. We will get to know if we are heading towards 82.50 or 83.50 Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair gave great hopes when it finally gave indications of a possible shift lower towards 82.50 at least. However, as luck would have it the equity sell-off triggered the sentiments negative and witnessed sudden surge of buying interest to lift the prices above 83. At best we can assume that the band is marginally lowered to 82.85 83.15. A few observations The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects Expect the range of 82.70 - 83.15 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires reassessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 • As noted in our 3rd July Blog: o A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. o The result is that it has extended to third quarter as well • As observed in the previous blog, still there are fair chances of the breaking lower towards 82.50, at least for a short period Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
2
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair finally shows signs of moving out of the 83.00-83.35 range after almost 3 quarters. In the past we have seen that when every time the pair comes closer to 83 there is a good amount of buying interest. With weekly closing below 83, we may see sellers emerging. A few observations Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects Lower crude prices keep the demand for USD. After having seen the big move of 74 in Jan 22 to 83 in Oct 22, The Importers seem to Hedge themselves fully and the exporters may be waiting and might be repenting for having missed higher levels The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 Expect the range of 82.70 - 83.15 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires reassessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 As noted in our 3rd July Blog: A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. The result is that it has extended to third quarter as well A fresh start with New year and new quarter, the question still remains 81.50 or 85.50? As observed in the previous blog, there are fair chances of the breaking lower towards 82.50, at least for a short period Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair is witnessing surprise action as it moved from the high of 83.09 to 83.35. The market is refusing to believe this move as it has wedded to the logic that the currency pair will not be allowed to trade below 83.00 levels. They had seen that the currency stable irrespective any big move in DXY, Yields or Stock market. As observed in the previous blog: A few observations Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 Lower crude prices keep the demand for USD. After having seen the big move of 74 in Jan 22 to 83 in Oct 22, The Importers seem to Hedge themselves fully and the exporters may be waiting and might be repenting for having missed higher levels Expect the range of 83.10-83.35 would continue to hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 As noted in our 3rd July Blog: A deeper correction is long overdue. Market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. The result is that it has extended to second quarter as well We have been witnessing depreciation for the past 12 years starting 2011 with exception of 2017 A fresh start with New year and New quarter, the question still remains 81.50 or 85.50? Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR_IN CONSOLIDATION PHASEA consolidation zone, also known as a trading range, occurs when a stock's price moves within a relatively narrow range, exhibiting neither a clear uptrend nor downtrend. Traders and investors often refer to this period as a "sideways market" or "range-bound market." Identifying stocks in a consolidation zone can be useful for traders who employ range-bound strategies. Here are some key characteristics of stocks in consolidation: #Horizontal Price Movement: Prices move within a defined range, creating horizontal support and resistance levels. The stock neither makes significant higher highs nor lower lows. #Decreased Volatility: Volatility tends to decrease during consolidation. The price swings are smaller compared to trends, and there is less directional momentum. Stable Trading Patterns: Traders may observe repeating patterns within the consolidation range, such as channels or rectangles. These patterns can help identify potential breakout or breakdown points. #Volume Analysis: Trading volume often decreases during consolidation. A breakout or breakdown accompanied by an increase in volume can signal a potential change in trend. #Indicators and Oscillators: Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) may show reduced momentum during consolidation. Overbought or oversold conditions may be less pronounced. #Duration of Consolidation: The length of time a stock spends in consolidation can vary, ranging from days to weeks or even months. Longer consolidation periods may precede more significant price movements. News and Catalysts: Consolidation can be influenced by a lack of significant news or catalysts, creating a period of uncertainty for market participants. #Breakout or Breakdown Potential: Traders often watch for a breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support to initiate trades. Confirmation of a breakout or breakdown is crucial for avoiding false signals.
by Pranay_Kamdi
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair is witnessing surprise action as it moved from the high of 84.41 to 82.93. The market is refusing to believe this move as it has wedded to the logic that the currency pair will not be allowed to trade below 83.00 levels. They had seen that the currency stable irrespective any big move in DXY, Yields or Stock market. As observed in the previous blog: A few observations Lower crude prices keep the demand for USD. After having seen the big move of 74 in Jan 22 to 83 in Oct 22, The Importers seem to Hedge themselves fully and the exporters may be waiting and might be repenting for having missed higher levels The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects In the earlier occasions the move towards 82.90 reversed quickly. It remains to be seen how far this would go. There is always a slip between the cup and the lip. Expect the range of 82.70-83.15 would continue to hold for the week with a crucial support at 82. 70 and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 As noted in our 3rd July Blog: A deeper correction is long overdue. Market is expecting 82.70-83.10 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. The result is that it has extended to second quarter as well and seeing some movement towards the close of the quarter/year We have been witnessing depreciation for the past 12 years starting 2011 with exception of 2017  Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair continues its narrow range with a marginal shift on the higher side, Viz. 83.24-83.41. As observed in the previous blogs, at best we can see marginal shifting of the range by 0.10 on either side. The currency pair does not seem to be impacted by moves in DXY, Yields or Stock market/ It appears like mimicking CNY action/control. As observed in the previous blog: A few observations Lower crude prices keep the demand for USD. After the big move of 74in Jan 22 to 83 in Oct 22, The Importers seem to Hedge themselves fully and the exporters may be waiting The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, it has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008 Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects Expect the range of 83.10-83.45 would continue to hold for the week with a crucial support at 82. 90 and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 7 months. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 As noted in our 3rd July Blog: A deeper correction is long overdue. Market is expecting 82.70-83.10 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. The result is that it has extended to second quarter as well with a minor difference of the range as 83.00-83.40 On analyzing the quarterly and half yearly charts, the risk on the higher side is till 85.70 followed by 86.10 which is the channel top and the down side is 77.70 We have been witnessing depreciation for the past 12 years starting 2011 with exception of 2017. We are nearing close of the end of the year. Will 2023 is be another 2017 or as usual? Monthly/Quarterly/Half yearly charts do not show significant signs of lower levels yet. Only a weekly close below 82.70 can help chances of lower levels. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogAs observed in the previous blog: At best we can see marginal shifting of the range by 0.10 on either side. The currency pair continues its narrow range with a marginal shift on the higher side, Viz. 83.24-83.41. It appears like mimicking CNY action/control. A few observations The rates remaining in a small range is not anything new for the currency pair as we could see from the quarterly charts, It has been in small ranges for almost 3-4 quarters in the past once in every three years. However, this general behavior altered after 2008. Lower crude prices keep the demand for USD. After the big move of 74in Jan 22 to 83 in Oct 22, The Importers seem to Hedge themselves fully and the exporters may be waiting on the sidelines The risky and sharp moves happen when no one expects. Expect the range of 83.00-83.45 would continue to hold for the week with a crucial support at 82.90 and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 6 months. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 As noted in our 3rd July Blog: A deeper correction is long overdue. Market is expecting 82.70-83.10 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 82.70. The result is that it has extended to second quarter as well with a minor difference of the range as 83.00-83.40 On analyzing the quarterly and half yearly charts, the risk on the higher side is till 85.70 followed by 86.10 which is the channel top and the down side is 77.70 We have been witnessing depreciation for the past 12 years starting 2011 with exception of 2017. We are nearing close of the end of the year. Will 2023 is be another 2017 or as usual? Monthly/Quarterly/Half yearly charts do not show significant signs of lower levels yet. Only a weekly close below 82.70 can help chances of lower levels. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF