Support / Break out @ pitchfork trend channel Look for Support / Break out @ pitchfork trend channel
USDINR trade ideas
usdinr - a rally for sell on rise for educational purpose only - sell on rise is the strategy for usdinr . sell near 66.30 - 66.4 with sl 66.75 for the tgt of 63.75 - 64
usdinr - a big downtrend to be startedfor educational purpose usdinr is showing symptoms of double top where 66.6-66.21 is the support where a little bounce may happen but this support may be broken then 63.65-63.32 will be next support. Or a big downtrend may be seen.
USDINR Short - Move out of BalanceBalance B/O , SL 66.20 (if it enters upper balance), target 1 isPOC of lower balance which is around 65.25 and target 2 is lower bracket of balance around 64.3
USDINR 2016 Diary- Retrace to 67.00-67.05 & Upside against 66.26In the last update@28th Dec2016- When it was trading at 68.10- expected retracement to 67.00-67.05 which will be 61.8% of the latest explosive rally from 66.26 to 69.05 -shall get support on the trendline connecting 58.26 lows in May2014 passing through 66.26.
If that gets broken, then finally 66.26 should act as support
Good News for Rupee Bulls they can become happy once 66.26 gets broken-key level & later dips below critical level-65.95
This is how we moved in 2016
Click on the charts & Use load bar feature
Impatient about acche din(good days)- 65.95 & 66.20 Important Support Level
Another Clue for Indian Markets
Magical 66.20 level
USDINR-Nifty- Strong Bonding & Waves
67.15-67.41 to act as polarity reversal zone
Amazing U-Turn from 67.15-67.40 Zone
Are you ready for 71.50 post Jan2017 Against 66.26
USDINR - Weekly ViewTwo corrective patterns forming, Elliot ABC wave and Evening Star..
A weekly close below 67.94 would pull USDINR towards 67.50 and If Elliot wave comes into play rupee could possibly see 66.80 levels.
USDINR- Can Rupee Capsule Power Nifty & Bank NiftyChannel break downside in dollar rupee could be the capsule, which can push weak Nifty & Bank Nifty to its much awaited targets.
67.05-67.30 is the zone, which dollar rupee could attempt & extending below 67 can take the support of trendline as mentioned in the 2016 diary update below.
Nifty going beyond 8230 can attempt for 8380-8400 target zone as expected & Bank Nifty could attempt for 18400+ & next resistance in BN shall be 18740
Bank Nifty - Need a poke above 18100 to resume uptrend- going below 17800 -downside
Nifty- Above 8230 for 8380-8400+
Click the charts below & use load bar feature
USDINR 2016 Diary
USDINR- Are you ready for 71.50 post Jan2017 Against 66.26S-L- First Selling & Later, Buying
Are you ready for most lethal attack on rupee postJan2017. Prices are talking that way. In previous updates I kept on saying 65.95 & 66.20 if intact downside- rupee is going to create panic in the camp- look what happened -an explosive move upside forming a low@66.26 well above 66.20-key level & 65.95-critical level.
The up move from 66.26 to 69.05 looks impulsive, which I was keen to see since May2016 & infact got the start as well.
What Next?
Against 66.26 -very important low -should not be broken downside else the discussed scenario gets invalidated.
From close to current rate@68.06 -likely going below 67.70 it travels 67.00-67.05 where it retraces 61.8% of the move from 66.26 to 69.05 & the 80 % retracement comes to 66.75-66.80 which could be a possible target zone in Jan2017
Going forward against 66.26 lows Dollar Rupee will give us an explosive move -possibly 71-72 zone, which 161.8% of the leg 66.26 to 69.05
How it will impact Nifty?
Nifty is in complex wave-2- currently sooner or later starts "y-wave" in wave-2 & within "wave-y"-almost should be ending "wave-b" & "starting wave-c"
Previous Analysis for Dollar Rupee in May-June 2016--Click the charts & load the bar
All related analysis attached below for USDINR along with key analysis for Nifty & Bank Nifty- Click the charts & use load bar feature
USDINR- Amazing 67.15- U Turn from 67.15-67.41Last Traded Price was 67.85- As per previous update, look for the zone 67.15-67.41 as key zone & 67.15 as critical level where Dollar rupee likely to bounce as that zone troubled for a good number of months acting as resistance zone & most likely to form support so they have changed their role from resistance to support- that is called polarity reversal.
Related analysis attached below for USDINR- How it turned from 67.15-67.41 zone- click the links below to get the charts & load the bars-to see how it moved
USDINR- Inching Close to the zone-67.99 to 67.50As expected, that Dollar Rupee likely to move into the zone. Had a decent fall in the dollar compared to rupee in the last session from 67.99 to 67.50
Waiting for this zone 67.15-67.41 to hold the dollar fall & let us come back again.
Previous Analysis- Click the chart & Load the bars
USDINR- Zone of 67.15-67.41 to act as a polarity reversal zoneDollar Bulls could return back in the polarity reversal zone of 67.15-67.41 which was an earlier resistance zone- if that zone holds & gives an impression of bouncing - likely it travels beyond recent high 69.05.
This zone of 67.41-67.15 had multiple resistances & troubled USDINR to move up in the last few months as it has been taken out convincingly that zone likely to act as support zone in coming sessions.
Critical Level is 67.15 -which should not be crossed downside or Dollar Bulls could get more hit from short term view.
Related Analysis Attached below
USD-INR Bullish ViewUSD-INR Currency pair is headed to 68.8 Break and Close above 68.9 Will take to 70.2
We have seen already a triangle pattern breakout if it is not proven false breakout we have some resistance around 68.8 zone, Once we close above the zone it will move upto 70.2
USDINR- Nifty -Strong Bonding & WavesClick on the chart
USDINR@22nd May2016- Impatient About Acche Din
I chose this headline for my report on 22nd May2016 because every Indian since they voted BJP to power in 2014- had high expectations from the running government & everyone was desperate to see better results, but why we forget the devastated state of the economy which was to be restored to normal first & Mr. Modi has been doing his share of work. So, have faith in him.
Elliotticians View on USDINR
This Whole Structure since May2014 @58.26 Lows- was complex structure which had so many overlaps formed W-X-Y Structure stands on 1st Feb2016 at 68.78 Highs.
Next move with 66.20 & 65.95 as base
I was clear that unless 66.20-key level & 65.95 -critical level is broken- come what may Indian Markets will be struggling in the days to come- Which tells that how Intermarket relations work wonders at times.
With key & critical levels intact, here we go, Dollar Rupee exploded upside from 66.26 lows to 68.20- If you ask an elliottician he will let you know that yes, this looks like an impulsive wave on upside & finally Z-wave looks on track once again because it made an attempt earlier from 66.05 lows to 68.22- which was changed to corrective structure.
India Nifty
Since Feb2016, Nifty surprised bears from lows@6825- giving us a high@8969 -close to the prior swing high@9119 of March 2015 -which is very choppy & Nifty falls sharply to 8000 lows.
Elliotticians Larger View
Since March 2015 Highs@9119- Nifty is in yet to finish a corrective wave sequence ABC- currently running in a C - wave of recent tops@8969
Elliotticians Short View
It’s an expanding leading diagonal from highs@8969
Before The Fall- Catching the Fall with double top@8600
Expanding Leading Diagonal & After Fall Image
Bank Nifty
Since Feb2016, Bank Nifty from its lows@13407 travelled to 20576.
Elliotticians Short term View
It’s a contracting leading diagonal with key level@20310.
Contracting Leading Diagonal Before the 2nd wave formed-
Contract Leading Diagonal After the 2nd wave formed
Bank Nifty- Roller Coaster Ride of 2000 points & Next IT Raids
Image-Finally, Where are we in Bank Nifty@18th Nov2016
What’s there for you to learn
Elliott Waves Lesson: Leading Diagonals
It always starts the waves- It can be a downside or upside trend & should have upside or downside inclination as the case may be.
It can be in 1st wave or A-wave of ABC correction
Special rule- All waves overlap - here 4th wave is allowed to overlap with the 1st wave as compared to the impulsive wave where the 4th wave can’t overlap- as it is a violation of one of the elliottwave cardinal rules.
It can be expanding or contracting type
They are deeply retraced almost 80-90% of 1st waves.
Educational 10: Butterfly Pattern It is another variation to the Gartley and Bat pattern and it is recommended to read them before reading it. (Attested below Gartley and Bat Pattern)
The main rules of the Bullish and Bearish Butterfly patterns are as follows:
Butterfly Rules:
AB can retrace up to 78.6% of the XA leg
BC can retrace between 38.2% – 88.6% of AB
CD can be an extension of 1.618% – 2.618% of AB
CD can also be an extension of up to 1.272% – 1.618% of XA leg
The point D is known as the PRZ or Potential Reversal Zone
The pattern can be used in all markets and at any time frames with most accuracy.
Purpose: To share quality information within community that may help individual trader to learn more and take inform decisions in order to generate consistent positive results.
Practice the above said chart pattern and share it below with us.
Thanks for the support,
Best Regards,
Neetesh Jain
Pin bar in daily time frame. Though the U.S elections caused a huge momentum and fear among traders it soon recovered from the event. Now it formed a pin bar(almost) on friday and it clearly shows the Indian market is trying to recover as soon a possible. Let's see how it goes.
USDINR- Magical 66.20-Here we go@67.40- Bulls Be CarefulLast Price@67.42
As expected & suggested that we will get an important clue for Index Nifty if Dollar Rupee Starts moving above 67.15.
In an unexpected move from Income Tax Department, which has carried out raids across various cities in India could likely shock the market, but I was clear that if 66.20 is on hold which shall decide market moves next. Here we go, trading at 67.42 has opened for Dollar Bulls.
Key Level@67. 15 on the top- Taken Out
USDINR- Key Zones 67.15- 66.20(Another Clue for Indian Markets)It's a complex correction W-X-Y (Where Y is taking the form of a triangle) in Dollar Rupee- likely giving us 2 clues -which I have my eyes set on.
Either it breaks 66.20- Key level & 65.95 critical levels on a daily closing basis, then I will really think that Indian Markets are bullish.
Else
If dollar rupee breaks on the upside, above 67.15 -then likely suggesting one leg for dollar rupee is still pending as suggested in my long term analysis as well shown below- which indicates that the Indian Markets likely could bounce on account of U.S. Elections but as soon as USDINR protecting downside 66.20 initially & goes above 67.15 should give us a major clue that the Indian Markets already had put a top@8969.
Invalidation Levels
If Nifty goes above 8969- in the bounce back, which is expected to give the bulls some hope & Dollar Rupee will go below 66.20 & 65.95 on a daily closing basis.
Impatient About Acche Din
Educational 09: Bat Pattern The Harmonic Bat is a variation to the Gartley pattern which was developed by Scott Carney. It is considered to be one of the more accurate patterns exhibiting a higher success rate than any other harmonic patterns. The bat pattern might look similar to a Gartley 222 Butterfly pattern but differs only minutely in terms of the Fibonacci ratios between the swing/pivot points.
It is the third most important trading pattern in Harmonic Pattern series , called Bat Pattern which is also frequently observed in markets. It is known as the most accurate and precise pattern among other Harmonic patterns.
The Harmonic Bat Pattern is made up of 5 swing points, X,A, B, C and D and come in Bullish and Bearish bat variations.
The Harmonic Bat pattern has the following characteristics which can be used to identify the Bat pattern.
AB leg can retrace between 38.2% – 50% of XA leg
BC leg can retrace between 38.2% – 88.6% of AB leg
CD leg can retrace up to 88.6% of XA leg
CD leg can also be an extension of between 1.618% – 2.618% of AB leg
The Bat pattern is much similar to the Gartley 222 Pattern (link attached) where they share similar formation overall but differentiate when it comes to formation of XA Leg and CD Leg.
The pattern can be used in all markets and at any time frames with most accuracy.
Purpose: To share quality information within community that may help individual trader to learn more and take inform decisions in order to generate consistent positive results.
Practice the above said chart pattern and share it below with us.
Thanks for the support,
Best Regards,
Neetesh Jain
Educational 06: Gartley Pattern It is the second most important trading pattern in Harmonic Pattern series , called Gartley Pattern which is also frequently observed in markets. This post a second post of educational series related to Harmonic Patterns,
In this post, I cover the following things regarding the pattern
1. Pattern Traits
2. Step by Step formation of the Pattern
3. Bullish Gartley Pattern measurements, labelling and targets
4. Bearish Gartley Pattern measurements, labelling and targets
5. Look of the pattern
Further to come in this Harmonic Pattern series , where I shall be discussing about the below patterns:
1. AB=CD Pattern (Completed) ----> Link below
2. Gartley Pattern (Present)
3. Cypher Pattern >>>>> Next
4. Bat Pattern (Coming up)
5. Butterfly Pattern (Coming up)
The best part of the above mentioned patterns that they can be used in all markets and at any time frame. It means you can use the patterns in stock markets, Forex , Commodities and at any time frame like hourly, daily, weekly etc. Therefore, they are important tools when analyzing the charts.
Purpose: To provide information to traders community that can help individual trader to learn more and take inform decisions while trading in order to generate consistent positive results.
Practice the above said chart pattern and share it below with us.
Thanks for the support,
Best Regards,
Neetesh Jain
Educational 05: AB=CD Pattern In this Educational post, I will be sharing the most basic and simple harmonic pattern: AB=CD Pattern
1. Formation of the Pattern
2. What to look in the pattern
3. Targets
4. Stoploss
5. Risk
This is a new series of Harmonic Patterns, where I shall be discussing about the below patterns:
1. AB=CD Pattern
2. Gartley Pattern
3. Cypher Pattern
4. Bat Pattern
5. Butterfly Pattern
The best part of the above mentioned patterns that they can be used in all markets and at any time frame. It means you can use the patterns in stock markets, Forex, Commodities and at any time frame like hourly, daily, weekly etc. Therefore, they are important tools when analyzing the charts.
Purpose: To provide information to traders community that can help individual trader to learn more and take inform decisions while trading in order to generate consistent positive results.
Practice the above said chart pattern and share it below with us.
Thanks,
Best Regards,
Neetesh Jain
