protrader1969

protrader1969

On the news that crude oil throughput from Saudi refineries will be restored soon, oil prices coming down and rupee recovery during the day, I had thought Banknifty (BNF) to cross 27400 on third attempt after 2 pm. But it didn't happen. As a result BNF ended like Nifty with much lower low and almost same low as compared to yesterday. On the back fo fed rate cut,...

protrader1969

Today, Rupee jumped by 55 paise to close at 71.2350, remarkable recovery. Oil prices recovered and at this moment Brent crude is trading at around $64 per barrel (International markets) on the news that Saudi oil output can be restored back in next 2-3 weeks, which in turn means that prices can come down even earlier in the old range of $60-61 per barrel. These...

protrader1969

Bank nifty exhibited more weakness today than Nifty. All major component banks fell by 1-4.5%. Option chain shows similar Call writing at all strikes near CMP, highest being seen at 27500. On PUT side, highest total OI is at 27000 but with too less fresh Put writing and there is unwinding at all strikes at and above 27100. So again like yesterday, no conclusive...

protrader1969

Last night after I finished writing here, I remembered index movement after demonetisation night (8th November 2016). On 9th morning, Nifty opened almost 500 points down but recovered intraday massively and closed very near to previous close. However, as the knowledge and crisis started to sink in Nifty kept falling for next 6-7 days surpassing low made on 9th...

protrader1969

Please read this post along with that on Nifty to get complete perspective. Banknifty (BNF) was strong today than Nifty and much of the fall of Nifty was arrested since BNF was behaving strong. And the tussle might even continue tomorrow because two main culprits which caused today's fall- Crude and Rupee- are likely to show same weakness tomorrow as well. As I...

protrader1969

This current geo-political development (or crisis) will definitely make us look at our markets with different perspective. Till yesterday, we were assured that crude was in check (i.e. less than $60/barrel), rupee was recovering, FIIs might be now buying and even though fundamentals were not good, those were discounted in prices. And suddenly due to ARAMCO...

protrader1969

Please read this post along with the post on Nifty to get complete idea. Let's analyse BNF with relevant points: 1) Option Chain data: Option chain reveal the picture not revealed by Nifty. On PUT side, the highest total OI (5.99 lakhs) and higest fresh Put writing (2.90 lakhs) is at the strike of 27500. At ATM strike of 28100, OI build up (63,100) and Put writing...

protrader1969

It was roller coaster ride on 'friday the 13th'. And some horror for those whose stop-losses got triggered. That included me too. Nifty and Bank nifty Short side trades got stopped out. But to tell you all truth, I have still retained some shorts on Nifty and Banknifty both. Why? Because of some unusual behaviour by indices! One, such big moves generally take...

protrader1969 Updated 

Even though Nifty was bearish throughout, Banknifty was not today. Banknifty broke low made in first half only during last 15 minutes. Consequently, it finished as a doji candle unlike Nifty. So Bank nifty is does not look as ready to fall as Nifty does. But in the process of today's fall, it created a good Selling area which can be taken advantage of. As written...

protrader1969

Nifty today fell beyond expectations. It actually gave an indication of it yesterday in the form of small ( very small difference between high and low) doji candle. So, expiry done what do we see tomorrow ? Actually, there are mixed signals, so let me list out positives and negatives: POSITIVES: 1) Rupee today climbed a lot (by 53 paise) to close at 71.1350. Very...

protrader1969 Updated 

Today Bank Nifty ran like a wild fire demolishing Selling areas and triggered SLs. In the process also took Nifty up. Rally in auto sector too helped. However, in the last half an hour selling took place and reduced some gains. But BNF still looks strong. With today's closing above 20 DEMA, it can now climb easily upto 28200 as not much strong resistance is seen...

protrader1969 Updated 

Nifty openned Gap-up and kept defending initial low- low made during first 5 mins- till the end. So SL was triggered in the initial few minutes if somebody took trade in Nifty on Short side. Not that it went very high which showed that resistance from top was equally strong, because difference between today's high and low is only around 44 points. In the end it...

protrader1969

The call given for Monday to buy banknifty at indicated levels went well, except that I did not expect it to run so much. For tomorrow, read this post along with two posts on Nifty- one for the week and another for tomorrow. On Monday market gave good run up without any news or any fundamental reason. My other post on Nifty does mention the possible reason. Let us...

protrader1969

Please read this post along with my post on "Nifty for week 11-13th Sept" to get complete idea of the concept. On Monday, Nifty staged unexpected rally. Unexpected because I did not expect it to cross 11000 even for brief period. But it did happen probably due to reasons mentioned in the post mentioned above so I am not repeating it here. On Monday, SIAM released...

protrader1969

Purely on the basis of charts, which I have shown, I expect Nifty to move up in channel as shown. On Monday, Nifty finished as a green candle with higher high and higher low than previous day's candle despite no good news from anywhere. So why did it climb after falling for few minute in the beginning? Frankly, I have no idea. But August Mutual fund data shows...

protrader1969

Please read this post along with my post on Nifty to get complete perspective of tomorrow's market moves. Just to summarize Nifty and BNF staged a hope rally on friday on the hope that FM may announce something good for industry in general and markets. Nothing happened and hence I am of the view that some fall in Nifty and BNF is expected tomorrow. But for index...

protrader1969

On friday, 6th September, based on reports that Finance Minister will again announce some important stimuli, like it had happened on 2 previous fridays, both Nifty and Bank Nifty (BNF) staged a rally. If you see closely, you will find that in first half BNF was pulling Nifty and in later half it was Nifty which was stronger than BNF. Consequently, since I had...

protrader1969

Please read this post along with my post on Nifty to get complete picture. Yesterday I wrote BNF pulled NIfty up and today it seemed BNF just didn't allow NIfty to go up. If one watches 5 min chart, this becomes clear. Forgot to write this piece of observation when I was writing about Nifty- If you see 5 top gainers you have Tata Motors, Coal India, ONGC, BPCL &...