protrader1969

protrader1969

Traders who read my last two posts would be having mixed feelings. Me too! I wrote yesterday that tussle would ensue when Reliance would try to pull market up and other factors- Inaction on FPI surcharge, repee fall and poor IIP data- would try to take it down. But who will win was difficult to predict. But neither in my wildest dreams I thought Reliance would...

protrader1969

As outlined in my earlier post, any developments on FPI surcharge, IIP data and falling Rupee will will guide how market moves tomorrow. Now add one more factor to it, Reliance Industries results or rather Reliance announcements as I would call it. Market will react favourably to Reliance results and since it has considerable weightage, it might push Nifty up. 1)...

protrader1969

This post is just taking stock of status prevailing now. A post for strategy to trade on 13th will be published on 12th August. The factors that we should consider now to form our viewpoint (about how market will move from hereon) should take into account following developments: 1) Next week is heavily truncated week. Market is open for only 3 out of 5 days. So...

protrader1969

At around 2.20 pm, a buzz was heard that Finance ministry may roll back FPI surcharge and Nifty and Banknifty started rallying. In next hour or so Nifty went up from 10886 to close session at 11032 (+146). Now with finance bill already passed and first parliamentary session already over, how and when this would happen? Nobody knows. Nevertheless markets shot up on...

protrader1969

I wrote yesterday that 'I was expecting a red candle, albeit with higher high and higher low'. Notwithstanding more than expected, 35 basis point cut in repo rate by RBI, market still tanked and gave a red candle. I also wrote that popular perception was 25 bps cut and if more was done market would go up. I was proved wrong on that. Nifty did go up momentarily and...

protrader1969

Today's move was unexpected and the extent to which it went up was also surprising. So you have a bullish Candle on Nifty daily chart with higher high and higher low after 13 trading sessions! But more about charts later. First FII and DII data. 1) Provisional data shows that FIIs were again today Net sellers by 2108 Crs and DIIs were net buyers by 2289 Crs. Final...

protrader1969 Updated 

Nifty fell on closing basis by 134.75 points. That's huge, actually. World markets provided the trigger, falling rupee fuelled the fall and political uncertainty (atleast,in the morning hours) over situation in J&K forced some buyers to wait. They waited and bought later and that's why Nifty receovered from low of 10782.6 to close at 10862.6. End of the day,...

protrader1969 Updated 

Not much change in attitude and outlook, even though the candle on daily chart shows a bit of green colour. Why? Let us investigate. 1) FIIs & DIIs Buy Sell figures- Provisional figures show FIIs were Net Sellers by 2888 Crs (huge number) and DIIs were Net Buyers by around 2813 Crs (again, huge numeber). Due to this matching numbers we saw trades in both...

protrader1969

Please read this in conjunction with my post on NIfty for in-depth understanding. The crux of the matter and approach is that it still is a market of 'Sell on rise'! The FIIs are Selling in huge numbers everyday. The option chain in BNF : On PUT side, the appreciable or OK Put writing is seen on the strikes of 28000, 27900 & 27800. The total OI (3.51 lakhs) and...

protrader1969

Let me try to explain today's developments in the market as per my limited ability. In the morning, three things weighed on traders' minds: 1) Fed cut the rate by only (and expected) 0.25% and commentary was that there were less possibilities of further rate cut this year. This sent world markets spiraling down. Hang-Seng & SGX Nifty too went down and expectedly...

protrader1969

Whatever I wrote yesterday, holds good even for tomorrow. I wrote to take a pause from incessant selling- that's what happenend, Nifty & Banknifty both ended in green. I wrote that Nifty will consolidate betwen 11000 & 11100, Nifty made a low of 10999.4 (& high of 11145) in Cash. I wrote that Banknifty (BNF) will stay between 28525 & 28788, it made a low of...

protrader1969

Nifty and BankNifty (BNF) both are at crossroads. People who were reading my posts regularly would remember that I had given a short call since Monday after budget consistently. But now, it seems one should pause. Why? after such a huge fall, is there not not a breakdown in Nifty and BNF? Let me state my case fact by fact: 1) Provisional figures show FIIs were Net...

protrader1969

Traders who took trade as per my yesterday's post and were lucky to not get stopped out since price just pinched SL line can now look to book profits in Nifty short trade. target approaching.

protrader1969

We are back to square one. Nifty resumed the week with heavy selling after friday's aberration. On daily charts, banknifty (BNF) made a red candle but with higher high and higher low than previous candle and Nifty made a strong bearish candle with far lower low and lower high than previous candle. So again BNF is heading north and Nifty heading south. On friday,...

protrader1969

Nifty today, cannot be studied in isolation because friday's move in Nifty was pushed by Banknifty (BNF). So on charts Nifty finished as a green base-like candle with Lower high and lower low than all previous days' candles. But BNF is showing a perfect reversal- ready pattern- A sustained fall, stopped by 2 base candles and then a solid bullish green candle ( Low...

protrader1969

Thank you for kind appreciation. Received lot of encouraging comments. Thanks again. The heart of my analysis for current times is shaped by single important factor - FII and FPI buy & sales figures. Let us see how they did today. 1) The provisional data shows that FIIs made net sale worth 126.65 Crs and DIIs did net buying of 398.53 Crs. Too low, right?...

protrader1969

Traders who took trade based on my yesterday's post can now look to book profit. I had given 2 possibilities, first one materialised. Again be cautious since Nifty may reverse and head to top.

protrader1969

Hi, For people who are saying that Nifty has fallen enough and is now ready for pull-up, sorry to say, there is no such evidence anywhere on horizon. Let us examine one by one as I normally do: 1) FII & DII Buy/ Sell Data- As per provisional data furnished on NSE, FIIs/FPIs were NET SELLERS by about 1394 Crs and DIIs were NET BUYERS by about 2140 Crs (Net buying...