viswaram

viswaram Updated 

Nifty Weekly Analysis We lost 373pts ~ 1.89% between the last expiry day and today. Usually Nifty ends up compensating the loss by dip-buying. For the first time in many weeks - the dip buying is not that intense and that may open up more cuts in the coming weeks. Our stock market in specific has been in an unchecked rally from April 2023. The fact that US...

viswaram Updated 

From yesterday we were bearish, so the moves in the forenoon session gave us some validation. But it was nothing like Nifty, the cuts in banknifty were not aggressive even though we lost similar points. The options flow was not indicating that deep a fall till afternoon - the premiums on nifty was far superior than banknifty (which has been unusual lately)....

viswaram Updated 

Maybe it was the news that Fitch cut the US rating from AAA to AA+ that sparked the reversals in Asian markets. Our market too started to fall but had a decent recovery in the last 1 hr (just as usual). The global markets were staying at elevated levels for quite some time now. Our market is at the APEX with the outperformance unchecked. Even with such a strong...

viswaram

BankNifty Weekly Analysis Banknifty has fallen an impressive 3.18% compared to just 1.89% of Nifty. The major reason for that is Banknifty always acts as leading indicator in a trend change NiftyIT and Reliance were supporting Nifty in the last week. Once the US market started falling due to the Fitch rating downgrade, NiftyIT started correcting which ensured...

viswaram

After the latest circular from NSE, MidCPSelect Nifty which tracks a handpicked 25 stocks will have expiry date shifted from Wednesdays to Mondays. And BankNifty which tracks the top most banks in India will have expiries on Wednesdays instead of Thursdays. This change in status-quo has created a situation wherein we have a daily expiry. Much similar to the 0 DTE...

viswaram

This is a strategy you use when you feel the markets will not rise or fall below a predetermined level within the upcoming week. Approx 9 out of 10 times markets remain range bound and the other single time it breaks out or breaks down. This strategy is when you have a feeling that markets will remain range bound and will not break out or break down. We will be...

viswaram

Banknfty fell 309pts ~ 0.68% from the day’s high to the day’s low. The gap up open was a surprise but the fall wasn't. Unlike Nifty, banknify is out of bearish hold yet. However the inability to push down prices even after getting an initial momentum during the day may not go in favor of the bears. The top formed today (encircled in blue) may be considered as...

viswaram

I had a long bias on Nifty from yesterday, the gap up was expected but the fall from 10.10 to 10.45 looked quite surprising to me. NiftyIT was supporting, the earlier fall came mostly from the FinNifty components - its understandable as its expiry. The much awaited levels to watch out for were 19700 to 19680 where nifty had spent some time yesterday as well as...

viswaram

FinNifty Analysis From the last expiry and today, Finnifty has fallen 197pts ~ 0.96%. We did hit an ATH of 20666 on 27th Jul and the same day we fell quite deeply. Today’s close is almost matching the intraday low set on that day. Today’s Analysis There was some interesting price action till 12.50 today - the fall was quite decent to watch esp after a gap up...

viswaram Updated 

Banknifty did not disappoint the bears as much as Nifty did today. The day began with a gap down right at the swing low of yesterday and in no time we reached the 45380 levels. From there we had a gradual drop to the intraday low of 45238. There was a pullback of 272pts ~ 0.6% but bears managed to close the day with a total cut of 0.46% ~ 211pts below yesterday’s...

viswaram Updated 

The open was as expected and the first 2 candles made sense when we retouched yesterday’s swing low.But what followed after that was more of a discouragement for the bears. No matter how hard the bears try - they are unable to push down the prices. We had a gradual fall to the intraday low of 19563 which was hit by 13.45 - and this was the time by which the bulls...

viswaram

Banknifty Monthly Analysis Banknifty has moved up 1353pts ~ 3.05% this expiry month, approx 0.7% lesser than Nifty’s movement. One possible reason was the slight retracement between 07 to 14 July whereas Nifty had managed that week pretty well. BankNifty Weekly Analysis Banknifty scored over Nifty during the weekly price move wherein BN lost only 0.85% ~ 391pts...

viswaram

Nifty Monthly Analysis Nifty is up 707pts ~ 3.73% this July Expiry month. The breakout from the last known resistance of 18880 came on the last working day of the previous month. All Nifty had to do was sustain that momentum and see where it has taken it? Almost for 11 days Nifty revised its all time highs. The last 5 days has been pretty unlucky for the...

viswaram

Banknifty on the other hand gave a trend reversal signal in just a day. For nifty we had atleast 3 days in succession. I took some short positions yesterday intraday and was all geared up to further attack by shorting more CALLS today. The opening minutes looked encouraging, so did the period from 10.35 to 11.15 but 2 things went against it. The options data...

viswaram

Today’s gap up opening and the race towards 19825 took out my stop loss. From last Friday we were short on Nifty, this stop loss hit proves to me that the bears are short lived in our market. Nifty50 went up 147pts ~ 0.75% from the prev. close enough to take out the 19800 levels where I had placed the protective stop. The main reason for the rally was the boost...

viswaram

Banknifty’s movement today has given a slight hope for the bears to sharpen their claws. Primarily it breached the 45850-45830 levels thrice today in the 5mts candle. I did mention in the report yesterday that I wish to go short if the 45830 levels are taken out. The reversal of 308pts from 13.40 to 14.55 would have tested the bear’s conviction level, but the...

viswaram

Nifty had a decent recovery between 13.35 to 14.55 where it gained back 89pts ~ 0.46% after it fell 96pts ~ 0.49% from the open. The moves were exactly similar to the financial service index - because it was caused by the FinNifty components. This casts the doubt that it could be an expiry related move rather than a natural pullback. For better clarity we would...

viswaram

Finnifty has actually moved up 209pts ~ 1.03% between the last expiry and today. What this means is the recent reversal in Nifty is yet to reach the financial service index. Moreover the finance sector esp. Banks were looking strong throughout the last week. FinNifty had a decent expiry today, closing almost flat +0.13%, well it is quite hard to believe when it...