viswaram

viswaram

This is a strategy you use when you feel the markets will not rise or fall below a predetermined level within the upcoming week. Approx 9 out of 10 times markets remain range bound and the other single time it breaks out or breaks down. This strategy is when you have a feeling that markets will remain range bound and will not break out or break down. We will be...

viswaram

Banknfty fell 309pts ~ 0.68% from the day’s high to the day’s low. The gap up open was a surprise but the fall wasn't. Unlike Nifty, banknify is out of bearish hold yet. However the inability to push down prices even after getting an initial momentum during the day may not go in favor of the bears. The top formed today (encircled in blue) may be considered as...

viswaram

I had a long bias on Nifty from yesterday, the gap up was expected but the fall from 10.10 to 10.45 looked quite surprising to me. NiftyIT was supporting, the earlier fall came mostly from the FinNifty components - its understandable as its expiry. The much awaited levels to watch out for were 19700 to 19680 where nifty had spent some time yesterday as well as...

viswaram

FinNifty Analysis From the last expiry and today, Finnifty has fallen 197pts ~ 0.96%. We did hit an ATH of 20666 on 27th Jul and the same day we fell quite deeply. Today’s close is almost matching the intraday low set on that day. Today’s Analysis There was some interesting price action till 12.50 today - the fall was quite decent to watch esp after a gap up...

viswaram Updated 

Banknifty did not disappoint the bears as much as Nifty did today. The day began with a gap down right at the swing low of yesterday and in no time we reached the 45380 levels. From there we had a gradual drop to the intraday low of 45238. There was a pullback of 272pts ~ 0.6% but bears managed to close the day with a total cut of 0.46% ~ 211pts below yesterday’s...

viswaram Updated 

The open was as expected and the first 2 candles made sense when we retouched yesterday’s swing low.But what followed after that was more of a discouragement for the bears. No matter how hard the bears try - they are unable to push down the prices. We had a gradual fall to the intraday low of 19563 which was hit by 13.45 - and this was the time by which the bulls...

viswaram

Banknifty Monthly Analysis Banknifty has moved up 1353pts ~ 3.05% this expiry month, approx 0.7% lesser than Nifty’s movement. One possible reason was the slight retracement between 07 to 14 July whereas Nifty had managed that week pretty well. BankNifty Weekly Analysis Banknifty scored over Nifty during the weekly price move wherein BN lost only 0.85% ~ 391pts...

viswaram

Nifty Monthly Analysis Nifty is up 707pts ~ 3.73% this July Expiry month. The breakout from the last known resistance of 18880 came on the last working day of the previous month. All Nifty had to do was sustain that momentum and see where it has taken it? Almost for 11 days Nifty revised its all time highs. The last 5 days has been pretty unlucky for the...

viswaram

Banknifty on the other hand gave a trend reversal signal in just a day. For nifty we had atleast 3 days in succession. I took some short positions yesterday intraday and was all geared up to further attack by shorting more CALLS today. The opening minutes looked encouraging, so did the period from 10.35 to 11.15 but 2 things went against it. The options data...

viswaram

Today’s gap up opening and the race towards 19825 took out my stop loss. From last Friday we were short on Nifty, this stop loss hit proves to me that the bears are short lived in our market. Nifty50 went up 147pts ~ 0.75% from the prev. close enough to take out the 19800 levels where I had placed the protective stop. The main reason for the rally was the boost...

viswaram

Banknifty’s movement today has given a slight hope for the bears to sharpen their claws. Primarily it breached the 45850-45830 levels thrice today in the 5mts candle. I did mention in the report yesterday that I wish to go short if the 45830 levels are taken out. The reversal of 308pts from 13.40 to 14.55 would have tested the bear’s conviction level, but the...

viswaram

Nifty had a decent recovery between 13.35 to 14.55 where it gained back 89pts ~ 0.46% after it fell 96pts ~ 0.49% from the open. The moves were exactly similar to the financial service index - because it was caused by the FinNifty components. This casts the doubt that it could be an expiry related move rather than a natural pullback. For better clarity we would...

viswaram

Finnifty has actually moved up 209pts ~ 1.03% between the last expiry and today. What this means is the recent reversal in Nifty is yet to reach the financial service index. Moreover the finance sector esp. Banks were looking strong throughout the last week. FinNifty had a decent expiry today, closing almost flat +0.13%, well it is quite hard to believe when it...

viswaram

I had a long call on banknifty and a short call on nifty50. All of us know very well that the probability of that happening is quite rare. Well we go as per what the chart says, banknifty showed strength on the last working day even when nifty was falling. Today also banknifty was staying strong until the 286pt fall from 11.30 to 11.55 - just after this price move...

viswaram

Nifty Analysis I was quite happy to see the last 45 to 60mts of trade happening in the direction of the trend. For days unknown we used to have dip buyers who come in at 14.30 to 15.00 and then change the dynamics all together. If you notice we had a good downtrending pattern developing on the 5mts TF. Ever since we broke down from 21st July, bears were able to...

viswaram

Banknifty on the other hand was staying strong today, although it opened gap down, it closed down the distance in the opening 5mts itself. After hitting a new ATH of 46369.5, it started falling gradually. Banks were not at all looking weak today. Infosys fell due to poor guidance & Reliance fell after the demerger activity. Financial sector along with pharma...

viswaram

Nifty Analysis If you had read yesterday’s report, I am sure you would have anticipated the gap down today & the profit taking that followed. Today’s price action may not be a structural change or the start of the next bear rally (at least too early to comment). What I feel is, we have out run the fundamentals & need to give some time for it to catch up so that...

viswaram

Banknifty also outperformed this week, between the last expiry & today it is up 1443pts ~ 3.23%. Unlike Nifty50 my positional call on Banknifty did not go wrong, that was mainly because we negated a bearish trend line this week. Usually when the trendlines are broken the breakout momentum is so strong that it could take the index to an overbought level...