viswaram

viswaram

NSE:BANKNIFTY held out to a perfect trend continuation from yesterday.  If we notice closely the pull backs were not strong enough to break the momentum. I sincerely thought we will have a reversal or a bearish day today and had taken PE debit spreads to capitalize.  If we analyze today's pattern closely NSE:BANKNIFTY took some time to take out the 41455...

viswaram

Banknifty had a mega pre-open boost by NSE:KOTAKBANK , it was up 5% by 09.10 which indicated the bears will get their bones crushed today. Contrary to the popular belief, Kotak bank has the 3rd most weightage to bank nifty above SBIN and NSE:AXISBANK even though kotak has lower net interest income. And today's 5% gap up due to the MSCI news spelled real...

viswaram

I am making some changes in the chart layout from today's report. It will be in white background going forward. This is after the feedback I got from the kindle publishing team that images with dark layout will look awkward when made into paperback. note: I will still continue to use the dark-mode chart for my trading purpose, only for the reports I will be using...

viswaram

Yesterday we discussed in detail the RBI MPC possibilities. If you read the article - I was expecting a hike. Surprisingly RBI maintained status quo today. Even when the inflation is at the elevated level a pause in rate hike should not be taken very lightly. An optimist would say it is an excellent decision that RBI is offering some breathing space for the...

viswaram

Before we get into today's analysis let us spend some time on Inflation, MPC minutes by RBI & health of banking sector. You might be aware we have the MPC minutes & interest rate decision tomorrow. There are 3 possible outcomes status quo dovish hawkish  What really prompts RBI to rate hike are 2 things Inflation Liquidity in the markets Now the last minutes...

viswaram

We had a perfect trend continuation day today, see the purple line - the trades were in the same degree of slope as on the previous working day. Banknifty opened at 40695 today and then slowly started climbing. We were in a small range of 40550 to 40690 between open and 12.05 - this was mainly because of the resistance level at 40704. Once that resistance gave...

viswaram

So the fiscal year comes to a close today, but today is the start of April series for banknifty. The first weekly expiry falls on 06 April& the monthly expiry is on 27 April. Hoping that you all had a good financial year 2022–23 and your trading dreams came true. For me - I could say with some what confidence that one of my dream came true. The dream to publish a...

viswaram

Quite an eventful day today spoiled by the last 30mts surprise. Honestly how many traders were expecting a rally of 340pts between 15.00 to 15.30 - i was not. In fact i was expecting a fall towards the 39400 levels. Lets analyze the trades on the 5mts chart today. Open was inline at 39611 and we tested the resistance level of 39742 in the opening minutes...

viswaram

March series is coming to a close tomorrow, but the options premium is already dead. Only few strikes near the money has some more premiums to shed, all the other OTMs are well below the average rates to what we usually see on the penultimate day of expiry. It also translates into very little movement expected tomorrow. Well today was an inside day - we did not...

viswaram

There are few important aspects to the price action today. We stuck to a small range today - it would have been good for intraday straddlers & short iron-fly, iron-condor strategy deployers. So we opened inline at 39484, many would argue that it was a gap up. But i wouldnt say that because of the price action from the previous session. As soon as we hit the last...

viswaram

Traders expected a bullish day today. They cannot be blamed because on 22nd we had a solid trade day above the crucial support level of 39742. But something was certain, once we broke that level yesterday we should really look out for bearish opportunities not the other way around. The level of 39742 became so important because of the time spent in the range ~ 45...

viswaram

Interesting price action today, not only did bank nifty end 0.96% down - it broke the crucial support of 39742 today. You might be already aware that i was expecting a bearish week, the 39500/39400 4:5 debit spread of mine was sitting at a loss right from monday. Today's gap down opening at 39836 gave me some hope that we will have a miraculous down day. The...

viswaram

Today happened to be a boring day mostly because NSE:BANKNIFTY stuck to a specific narrow range all day. Usually we have one or two swings which will spike up the options premium, Yesterday i did mention the possibility that we could expect a fall today if the 2nd half of yesterday's session was resultant of a build-up as part of Finnifty expiry. Since the fall...

viswaram

Today was a different day for me personally, i almost lost focus at around 10.30am & i posted the same in banknifty minds. "$BANKNIFTY i have no clue on the direction - options data/flow is confusing today" I normally use options flow/data to guess the direction of NSE:BANKNIFTY rather than the direct candle stick or chart pattern. Options data usually does not...

viswaram

I really cant say that the volatility is that high, if we follow the slope of the moving average - India VIX is still staying low. Not quite a representation of the things happening in global markets. Today i saw VIX trading near 17% higher than last close - but that did not really translate into lot of fear on NSE:NIFTY & NSE:BANKNIFTY . People who look at...

viswaram

The trades till 14.20 was kind of predictable, but the last 1 hour was really special. NSE:BANKNIFTY got wings ! The open was gap up at 39442 and then we started dropping gradually. At around 10.00 i posted "$BANKNIFTY PE premiums are unusually high ! either traders expecting huge downside today or maybe its good time for PE credit spread" in the bank nifty...

viswaram

--- NSE:BANKNIFTY showed some strength today, mostly signs of a pause after a breakdown over the last sessions. We opened at 39061 pretty much inline with yesterday's close and quickly started falling to the support zone of 38690. The price action was perfectly aligned with how we traded yesterday, see the highlighted section in cyan color. The reversal...

viswaram

Nifty bank has not fallen enough, we have not even scratched the surface yet. The pace at which global banks are going insolvent - the real fear has not hit India yet ! Traders, investors & public are just cool here, look at the India VIX - we are still at 16.29% compared with US VIX of 27.2% ~ it means we are trading with 67% lower volatility. Now - the reason...