So the fiscal year comes to a close today, but today is the start of April series for banknifty. The first weekly expiry falls on 06 April& the monthly expiry is on 27 April. Hoping that you all had a good financial year 2022–23 and your trading dreams came true. For me - I could say with some what confidence that one of my dream came true. The dream to publish a...
Quite an eventful day today spoiled by the last 30mts surprise. Honestly how many traders were expecting a rally of 340pts between 15.00 to 15.30 - i was not. In fact i was expecting a fall towards the 39400 levels. Lets analyze the trades on the 5mts chart today. Open was inline at 39611 and we tested the resistance level of 39742 in the opening minutes...
March series is coming to a close tomorrow, but the options premium is already dead. Only few strikes near the money has some more premiums to shed, all the other OTMs are well below the average rates to what we usually see on the penultimate day of expiry. It also translates into very little movement expected tomorrow. Well today was an inside day - we did not...
There are few important aspects to the price action today. We stuck to a small range today - it would have been good for intraday straddlers & short iron-fly, iron-condor strategy deployers. So we opened inline at 39484, many would argue that it was a gap up. But i wouldnt say that because of the price action from the previous session. As soon as we hit the last...
Traders expected a bullish day today. They cannot be blamed because on 22nd we had a solid trade day above the crucial support level of 39742. But something was certain, once we broke that level yesterday we should really look out for bearish opportunities not the other way around. The level of 39742 became so important because of the time spent in the range ~ 45...
Interesting price action today, not only did bank nifty end 0.96% down - it broke the crucial support of 39742 today. You might be already aware that i was expecting a bearish week, the 39500/39400 4:5 debit spread of mine was sitting at a loss right from monday. Today's gap down opening at 39836 gave me some hope that we will have a miraculous down day. The...
Today happened to be a boring day mostly because NSE:BANKNIFTY stuck to a specific narrow range all day. Usually we have one or two swings which will spike up the options premium, Yesterday i did mention the possibility that we could expect a fall today if the 2nd half of yesterday's session was resultant of a build-up as part of Finnifty expiry. Since the fall...
Today was a different day for me personally, i almost lost focus at around 10.30am & i posted the same in banknifty minds. "$BANKNIFTY i have no clue on the direction - options data/flow is confusing today" I normally use options flow/data to guess the direction of NSE:BANKNIFTY rather than the direct candle stick or chart pattern. Options data usually does not...
I really cant say that the volatility is that high, if we follow the slope of the moving average - India VIX is still staying low. Not quite a representation of the things happening in global markets. Today i saw VIX trading near 17% higher than last close - but that did not really translate into lot of fear on NSE:NIFTY & NSE:BANKNIFTY . People who look at...
The trades till 14.20 was kind of predictable, but the last 1 hour was really special. NSE:BANKNIFTY got wings ! The open was gap up at 39442 and then we started dropping gradually. At around 10.00 i posted "$BANKNIFTY PE premiums are unusually high ! either traders expecting huge downside today or maybe its good time for PE credit spread" in the bank nifty...
--- NSE:BANKNIFTY showed some strength today, mostly signs of a pause after a breakdown over the last sessions. We opened at 39061 pretty much inline with yesterday's close and quickly started falling to the support zone of 38690. The price action was perfectly aligned with how we traded yesterday, see the highlighted section in cyan color. The reversal...
Nifty bank has not fallen enough, we have not even scratched the surface yet. The pace at which global banks are going insolvent - the real fear has not hit India yet ! Traders, investors & public are just cool here, look at the India VIX - we are still at 16.29% compared with US VIX of 27.2% ~ it means we are trading with 67% lower volatility. Now - the reason...
If you just saw the open & close price of NSE:BANKNIFTY , you would have missed the real drama of the day. A perfect day for the straddlers - but i am 100% confident none of the traders would have held onto their position till close to realize the full profits. Must admit there was no trend like yesterday, but there was spike in volatility in between - we will...
Bears would have been happy today seeing the supports getting broken, i am quite sure the level of shorts in CE options taken to capitalize on the fall we had today. 46500 CE was traded for 1,45,47,750 volume ~ 1.45 crore. This is the farthest away strike in the weekly series. I would say its a brand new record ! Eventhough we had a -2.27% ~ 920pts drop day, the...
Promising price action today if you are bearish. The double top M pattern on the hourly time frame did its job quite nicely today. (Thank god it worked) But seriously what happened today is no reflection to the handout from US markets. SP:SPX was down 1.85% over night & our NSE:NIFTY is only 1% down. Agree NSE:BANKNIFTY was down 1.87%, but remember SP:SPF ...
Interesting moves by NSE:BANKNIFTY today, the closing statement from my yesterday's report said. "I personally would like to wait for the range to be broken decisively before changing my bearish bias." Got lucky with the analysis yesterday as NSE:BANKNIFTY was consistently proving me wrong in this calendar month so far. But i am sure you were not expecting a...
Simply unexplainable moves by NSE:BANKNIFTY from 13.50 today. From the traders fraternity i saw few group of traders planning for long trades - they got immensely rewarded. For some reason i was keeping by bearish bias & hence ended the day quite unsatisfactorily. Overnight we had a dip in SP:SPX -1.53%, TVC:DJI -1.72%, NDQ -1.22% - seriously i thought...
Once again the perfect day for the straddlers, open & close almost at the same level ! But for every other trader, it was a tough day to plan. Gap up opening & hitting the resistance by 09.45. The 30mts of move would have changed everyone bias to the long side. That was 1% ~ 429pts upmove considering the gap up also. The surge in the ATM & near OTMs were so huge...