AUDUSD bears have bumpy road ahead, 0.6460 is crucial

AUDUSD remains pressured on early Monday, after snapping a three-week uptrend by the end of Friday. In doing so, the Aussie pair justifies its risk-barometer status as traders await this week’s key data/events comprising the US inflation, multiple PMIs and top-tier central bank meetings. In addition to the market’s anxiety, the bearish MACD signals and a downward-sloping RSI (14) line also favors the Aussie pair sellers in targeting a four-month-old horizontal support surrounding 0.6520-15. However, the quote’s weakness past 0.6515 appears difficult unless the bears manage to conquer the 0.6460 support confluence comprising the 100-SMA and a six-week-old rising support line. Following that, the pair becomes vulnerable to decline towards an area near 0.6360 that includes multiple levels marked since the mid-August.

Meanwhile, the AUDUSD pair’s recovery needs validation from the 0.6600 and the scheduled catalysts to convince buyers. Even so, the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of the pair’s June-October downside, close to 0.6660, will precede the monthly high of 0.6690 and the 0.6700 to test the Aussie bulls before giving them control. In a case where the quote remain firmer past 0.6700, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of around 0.6770 and June’s peak near 0.6900 will be in the spotlight.

Overall, AUDUSD is likely to remain pressured during the key week but the road toward the south appears long and bumpy.