May 24 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News
Description:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
2860-2900 Gap; 2975-2900 Balance.
Technical:
Nasdaq and S&P relatively strong. Russell, Dow, and NYSE are strengthening.
Monday we gapped and met resistance at a low-volume area.
Tuesday’s overnight broke above the high established on 4/29 and later liquidated, closing on the lows.
Wednesday’s overnight rejected Tuesday’s spike and attempt to fill the gap.
Friday’s overnight, again, failed to fill the gap, establishing a v-bottom at the $2905 area of resting liquidity.
Overall, after Monday’s gap, the market didn’t move much. Instead, it balanced between $2975 and $2900.
Similar to last week, the market has been coming into balance, digesting information, building value, shaking out weak hands. Aside from remaining in balance, the market could extend directionally, or extend and return to balance quickly. Taking out Friday’s low of $2903.75, targets on the downside include $2870 and $2860. A successful break above $2976.25 has me targeting $3015.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Fundamental:
Key Events: New-Home Sales; Consumer Confidence; Building Permits; GDP Data; Durable Goods; Initial Claims; Personal Income, Spending; PCE; Advanced Economic Indicators.
Next to no inflation for at least 2 to 3 years. bit.ly/2TBlshk
The requisite for long-term inflation. bit.ly/2Ty6uJa
Top buys from money managers include FAANMG, digital payments, e-commerce. bit.ly/36CpkEp
META
AMZN
AAPL
NFLX
GOOGL
Bank fraud in commercial mortgage-backed securities puts the entire economy at risk. bit.ly/2ZJ2vNV
HY bond spreads reflect expectations of declining default rate. bit.ly/36rwKtO
Debt issuance decreases risk of near-term defaults. bit.ly/2WZR3vn
Barometer for housing demand has increased for 5 straight weeks. bit.ly/3giBJBH
Impact on state budgets beyond anything seen during the Great Depression. bit.ly/3giBJBH
Market crash was a liquidity and re-pricing event. Be wary of further structural issues. bit.ly/36p2yPY
Financial institutions to change habits, reshape business models. bit.ly/2WVnPhc
Italian credit quality deteriorates as Italy realizes financial hit from the virus. bit.ly/2WVnPhc
Chains like Starbucks seek extended rent cuts, hurting landlords. on.wsj.com/2ZxFhKc
SBUX
Oil market will go from over-supply to under-supply. reut.rs/2WYjwBV
EIA expects lower natural gas production in 2020. bit.ly/2XnaKwg
Rolls-Royce to cut 9,000 jobs, warns of a prolonged recovery. bbc.in/2ZE7XkK
Uber hones in on core rides, delivery as it cuts a quarter of its workforce. reut.rs/36pAlsx
UBER
Cisco earnings reveal a challenging outlook, but credit metrics strong. bit.ly/2TtHoLt
CSCO
Exchanges, market makers eye strong Q2 amid increased trading volumes. bit.ly/3d0SYFp
Senior living and nursing home operators eye financial turmoil. bit.ly/36pY6Rb
Mexican auto manufacturing restarts, a positive for credit. bit.ly/2yuvj1l
Job openings report shows true unemployment understated. bit.ly/2ZvSqn7
There is no limit to the Fed’s lending capabilities. bit.ly/2LQNsJM
Takeaways from Fed Chair Powell’s ‘60 Minutes’ talk. bit.ly/2Xpqf6D
Census survey points to economic suffering across U.S. households. bit.ly/2WYdaSU
Consumer liquidity rises alongside forbearance programs, lower credit card balances. bit.ly/36pxZtw
Forbearance programs to camouflage weakening bank asset quality. bit.ly/2WZdBMK
Questions about the economy overtake searches regarding coronavirus pandemic. bit.ly/3cZQ4ku
U.S. leveraged loan defaults highest since 2014; retail defaults hit record. bit.ly/36pKHbI
Coronavirus to accelerate ASEAN banks’ digital transformation. bit.ly/2ZyXszw
Cities will force a return to the pre-pandemic status quo. reut.rs/2Zv4zIW
Arizona attracts record venture dollars. bit.ly/2APs7Oq
The U.S. would react “very strongly” if Beijing went ahead with Hong Kong security law. reut.rs/2A2JISH
Amazon to hire 50K temp workers in India as demand rises. reut.rs/2AXkPZc
Deere & Co tops quarterly results, signals recovery as farmers benefit from relief. reut.rs/3dbvD4h
DE
GM delays resumption of second shift at truck plants. reut.rs/36r7V11
GM
U.S. plans massive vaccine testing effort to meet year-end deadline. reut.rs/2LWox7q
Sentiment: 29.0% Bullish, 26.0% Neutral, 45.0% Bearish as of 5/24/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 1,639,866,652 as of 5/22/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 51.2% as of 5/22/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Analysis:
ES:
SPY
SPX
NQ:
QQQ
NDQ
RTY:
IWM
RUT
YM:
DIA
DJI
NYA:
NYA
GC:
GLD
CL:
USO
DBO
USL
NG:
UNG
ZB:
TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
2860-2900 Gap; 2975-2900 Balance.
Technical:
Nasdaq and S&P relatively strong. Russell, Dow, and NYSE are strengthening.
Monday we gapped and met resistance at a low-volume area.
Tuesday’s overnight broke above the high established on 4/29 and later liquidated, closing on the lows.
Wednesday’s overnight rejected Tuesday’s spike and attempt to fill the gap.
Friday’s overnight, again, failed to fill the gap, establishing a v-bottom at the $2905 area of resting liquidity.
Overall, after Monday’s gap, the market didn’t move much. Instead, it balanced between $2975 and $2900.
Similar to last week, the market has been coming into balance, digesting information, building value, shaking out weak hands. Aside from remaining in balance, the market could extend directionally, or extend and return to balance quickly. Taking out Friday’s low of $2903.75, targets on the downside include $2870 and $2860. A successful break above $2976.25 has me targeting $3015.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Fundamental:
Key Events: New-Home Sales; Consumer Confidence; Building Permits; GDP Data; Durable Goods; Initial Claims; Personal Income, Spending; PCE; Advanced Economic Indicators.
Next to no inflation for at least 2 to 3 years. bit.ly/2TBlshk
The requisite for long-term inflation. bit.ly/2Ty6uJa
Top buys from money managers include FAANMG, digital payments, e-commerce. bit.ly/36CpkEp
META
AMZN
AAPL
NFLX
GOOGL
Bank fraud in commercial mortgage-backed securities puts the entire economy at risk. bit.ly/2ZJ2vNV
HY bond spreads reflect expectations of declining default rate. bit.ly/36rwKtO
Debt issuance decreases risk of near-term defaults. bit.ly/2WZR3vn
Barometer for housing demand has increased for 5 straight weeks. bit.ly/3giBJBH
Impact on state budgets beyond anything seen during the Great Depression. bit.ly/3giBJBH
Market crash was a liquidity and re-pricing event. Be wary of further structural issues. bit.ly/36p2yPY
Financial institutions to change habits, reshape business models. bit.ly/2WVnPhc
Italian credit quality deteriorates as Italy realizes financial hit from the virus. bit.ly/2WVnPhc
Chains like Starbucks seek extended rent cuts, hurting landlords. on.wsj.com/2ZxFhKc
SBUX
Oil market will go from over-supply to under-supply. reut.rs/2WYjwBV
EIA expects lower natural gas production in 2020. bit.ly/2XnaKwg
Rolls-Royce to cut 9,000 jobs, warns of a prolonged recovery. bbc.in/2ZE7XkK
Uber hones in on core rides, delivery as it cuts a quarter of its workforce. reut.rs/36pAlsx
UBER
Cisco earnings reveal a challenging outlook, but credit metrics strong. bit.ly/2TtHoLt
CSCO
Exchanges, market makers eye strong Q2 amid increased trading volumes. bit.ly/3d0SYFp
Senior living and nursing home operators eye financial turmoil. bit.ly/36pY6Rb
Mexican auto manufacturing restarts, a positive for credit. bit.ly/2yuvj1l
Job openings report shows true unemployment understated. bit.ly/2ZvSqn7
There is no limit to the Fed’s lending capabilities. bit.ly/2LQNsJM
Takeaways from Fed Chair Powell’s ‘60 Minutes’ talk. bit.ly/2Xpqf6D
Census survey points to economic suffering across U.S. households. bit.ly/2WYdaSU
Consumer liquidity rises alongside forbearance programs, lower credit card balances. bit.ly/36pxZtw
Forbearance programs to camouflage weakening bank asset quality. bit.ly/2WZdBMK
Questions about the economy overtake searches regarding coronavirus pandemic. bit.ly/3cZQ4ku
U.S. leveraged loan defaults highest since 2014; retail defaults hit record. bit.ly/36pKHbI
Coronavirus to accelerate ASEAN banks’ digital transformation. bit.ly/2ZyXszw
Cities will force a return to the pre-pandemic status quo. reut.rs/2Zv4zIW
Arizona attracts record venture dollars. bit.ly/2APs7Oq
The U.S. would react “very strongly” if Beijing went ahead with Hong Kong security law. reut.rs/2A2JISH
Amazon to hire 50K temp workers in India as demand rises. reut.rs/2AXkPZc
Deere & Co tops quarterly results, signals recovery as farmers benefit from relief. reut.rs/3dbvD4h
DE
GM delays resumption of second shift at truck plants. reut.rs/36r7V11
GM
U.S. plans massive vaccine testing effort to meet year-end deadline. reut.rs/2LWox7q
Sentiment: 29.0% Bullish, 26.0% Neutral, 45.0% Bearish as of 5/24/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 1,639,866,652 as of 5/22/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 51.2% as of 5/22/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Analysis:
ES:
SPY
SPX
NQ:
QQQ
NDQ
RTY:
IWM
RUT
YM:
DIA
DJI
NYA:
NYA
GC:
GLD
CL:
USO
DBO
USL
NG:
UNG
ZB:
TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
