Physik

May 24 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News

CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
Description:

An analysis for the week ahead.

Points of Interest:

2860-2900 Gap; 2975-2900 Balance.

Technical:

Nasdaq and S&P relatively strong. Russell, Dow, and NYSE are strengthening.

Monday we gapped and met resistance at a low-volume area.

Tuesday’s overnight broke above the high established on 4/29 and later liquidated, closing on the lows.

Wednesday’s overnight rejected Tuesday’s spike and attempt to fill the gap.

Friday’s overnight, again, failed to fill the gap, establishing a v-bottom at the $2905 area of resting liquidity.

Overall, after Monday’s gap, the market didn’t move much. Instead, it balanced between $2975 and $2900.

Similar to last week, the market has been coming into balance, digesting information, building value, shaking out weak hands. Aside from remaining in balance, the market could extend directionally, or extend and return to balance quickly. Taking out Friday’s low of $2903.75, targets on the downside include $2870 and $2860. A successful break above $2976.25 has me targeting $3015.

Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.

Fundamental:

Key Events: New-Home Sales; Consumer Confidence; Building Permits; GDP Data; Durable Goods; Initial Claims; Personal Income , Spending; PCE ; Advanced Economic Indicators.

Next to no inflation for at least 2 to 3 years. https://bit.ly/2TBlshk

The requisite for long-term inflation . https://bit.ly/2Ty6uJa

Top buys from money managers include FAANMG, digital payments, e-commerce. https://bit.ly/36CpkEp NASDAQ:FB NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:NFLX NASDAQ:GOOGL

Bank fraud in commercial mortgage-backed securities puts the entire economy at risk. https://bit.ly/2ZJ2vNV

HY bond spreads reflect expectations of declining default rate. https://bit.ly/36rwKtO

Debt issuance decreases risk of near-term defaults. https://bit.ly/2WZR3vn

Barometer for housing demand has increased for 5 straight weeks. https://bit.ly/3giBJBH

Impact on state budgets beyond anything seen during the Great Depression. https://bit.ly/3giBJBH

Market crash was a liquidity and re-pricing event. Be wary of further structural issues. https://bit.ly/36p2yPY

Financial institutions to change habits, reshape business models. https://bit.ly/2WVnPhc

Italian credit quality deteriorates as Italy realizes financial hit from the virus. https://bit.ly/2WVnPhc

Chains like Starbucks seek extended rent cuts, hurting landlords. https://on.wsj.com/2ZxFhKc NASDAQ:SBUX

Oil market will go from over-supply to under-supply. https://reut.rs/2WYjwBV

EIA expects lower natural gas production in 2020. https://bit.ly/2XnaKwg

Rolls-Royce to cut 9,000 jobs, warns of a prolonged recovery. https://bbc.in/2ZE7XkK

Uber hones in on core rides, delivery as it cuts a quarter of its workforce. https://reut.rs/36pAlsx NYSE:UBER

Cisco earnings reveal a challenging outlook, but credit metrics strong. https://bit.ly/2TtHoLt NASDAQ:CSCO

Exchanges, market makers eye strong Q2 amid increased trading volumes. https://bit.ly/3d0SYFp

Senior living and nursing home operators eye financial turmoil. https://bit.ly/36pY6Rb

Mexican auto manufacturing restarts, a positive for credit. https://bit.ly/2yuvj1l

Job openings report shows true unemployment understated. https://bit.ly/2ZvSqn7

There is no limit to the Fed’s lending capabilities. https://bit.ly/2LQNsJM

Takeaways from Fed Chair Powell’s ‘60 Minutes’ talk. https://bit.ly/2Xpqf6D

Census survey points to economic suffering across U.S. households. https://bit.ly/2WYdaSU

Consumer liquidity rises alongside forbearance programs, lower credit card balances. https://bit.ly/36pxZtw

Forbearance programs to camouflage weakening bank asset quality. https://bit.ly/2WZdBMK

Questions about the economy overtake searches regarding coronavirus pandemic. https://bit.ly/3cZQ4ku

U.S. leveraged loan defaults highest since 2014; retail defaults hit record. https://bit.ly/36pKHbI

Coronavirus to accelerate ASEAN banks’ digital transformation. https://bit.ly/2ZyXszw

Cities will force a return to the pre-pandemic status quo. https://reut.rs/2Zv4zIW

Arizona attracts record venture dollars. https://bit.ly/2APs7Oq

The U.S. would react “very strongly” if Beijing went ahead with Hong Kong security law. https://reut.rs/2A2JISH

Amazon to hire 50K temp workers in India as demand rises. https://reut.rs/2AXkPZc

Deere & Co tops quarterly results, signals recovery as farmers benefit from relief. https://reut.rs/3dbvD4h NYSE:DE

GM delays resumption of second shift at truck plants. https://reut.rs/36r7V11 NYSE:GM

U.S. plans massive vaccine testing effort to meet year-end deadline. https://reut.rs/2LWox7q

Sentiment: 29.0% Bullish , 26.0% Neutral, 45.0% Bearish as of 5/24/2020. https://bit.ly/330VhEp

Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 1,639,866,652 as of 5/22/2020. https://bit.ly/2UpgtRE

Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 51.2% as of 5/22/2020. https://bit.ly/2UpgtRE

Product Analysis:

ES: AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX
NQ: NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX
RTY: AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT
YM: AMEX:DIA TVC:DJI
NYA: TVC:NYA

GC: AMEX:GLD
CL: AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL
NG: AMEX:UNG
ZB: NASDAQ:TLT

Disclaimer:

This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.

In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.

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