EUR/USD Stalls as European Markets Grapple with Mixed Sentiment

EUR/USD Stalls as European Markets Grapple with Mixed Sentiment

The Euro continues to struggle to gain momentum against the US Dollar, with European stocks trading without a clear sense of direction. On Friday, the market dynamics turned quite unpredictable as our earlier bearish view on EUR/USD gave way to a contrarian movement, pushing the currency pair into positive territory following the release of economic news.

EUR/USD currently hovers around the 1.0550 as European markets kick off the trading day. The US Dollar remains relatively firm. This modest Dollar strength coincides with a rather lackluster increase in US yields across various timeframes.

Regarding monetary policy, there is a growing consensus among market participants that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its current stance of keeping interest rates unchanged during its November 1 meeting. Nevertheless, the possibility of a rate hike in December remains on the table, supported by the robustness of the US economy and persistent inflation.

On the European Central Bank (ECB) front, there were no surprises during its recent event as it unanimously opted to keep rates steady. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated the need for further work on inflation, as it is anticipated that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period. Additionally, Lagarde noted a somewhat pessimistic economic outlook with risks tilting to the downside.

Looking ahead, the ECB will release its Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), providing further insights into the economic landscape.

In the United States, the focus will be on the release of September's inflation figures, as tracked by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and Core PCE. This will be followed by data on Personal Income, Personal Spending, and the final October readings for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

As markets navigate through this mixed sentiment, EUR/USD remains in a state of flux, making it essential for traders to stay vigilant and nimble in their approach.


Our preference

Short positions below 1.06250 with targets at 1.0500 & 1.04500 in extension.