New week, new opportunities!
Updated
I’m expecting the week to start and take all of the liquidity above those highs (red dots). The volume of that move higher will be very important to take into consideration.
The issue is, the week needs to make a new low and that fact alone will probably give bears an advantage from my POV. To make a significant low on the weekly, price will probably have to break H4 structure and if it does, the next demand that I’ll be paying attention is around 1.075.
As traders, we need to take into consideration different scenarios and how to act upon them. So here’s how I’ll trade next week.
If price starts breaking bellow Fridays low, I’ll start looking for shorts aggressively and considering the possibility that it will reach 1.075. When it does, I’ll look for longs, because price should take liquidity from above, before continuing with bearish momentum if that’s the case. Also important to notice that level is inside weekly demand and if it breaks, the bearish momentum would be very aggressive. I don’t consider that as likely to happen, unless there’s some catalyst from high impact news.
The other scenario that I’ll be looking for, is price holding Fridays low and continue higher to take the liquidity as mentioned above. In that case, I’ll consider shorts from around 1.097 BUT since price is coming from daily demand it will depend on how it gets there and even if I take positions, I’ll manage my expectations about the results.
Monday and Tuesday don’t have any high impact news, which is perfect for price to grind higher, which is my main expectation for the beginning of the week. Wednesday there’ll be PMI data on EU and US, should be very volatile. Thursday, unemployment claims from the US and Friday consumer sentiment and Powell speech after.
The goal is to remain truthful to the plan and enjoy trading for what it is!
The issue is, the week needs to make a new low and that fact alone will probably give bears an advantage from my POV. To make a significant low on the weekly, price will probably have to break H4 structure and if it does, the next demand that I’ll be paying attention is around 1.075.
As traders, we need to take into consideration different scenarios and how to act upon them. So here’s how I’ll trade next week.
If price starts breaking bellow Fridays low, I’ll start looking for shorts aggressively and considering the possibility that it will reach 1.075. When it does, I’ll look for longs, because price should take liquidity from above, before continuing with bearish momentum if that’s the case. Also important to notice that level is inside weekly demand and if it breaks, the bearish momentum would be very aggressive. I don’t consider that as likely to happen, unless there’s some catalyst from high impact news.
The other scenario that I’ll be looking for, is price holding Fridays low and continue higher to take the liquidity as mentioned above. In that case, I’ll consider shorts from around 1.097 BUT since price is coming from daily demand it will depend on how it gets there and even if I take positions, I’ll manage my expectations about the results.
Monday and Tuesday don’t have any high impact news, which is perfect for price to grind higher, which is my main expectation for the beginning of the week. Wednesday there’ll be PMI data on EU and US, should be very volatile. Thursday, unemployment claims from the US and Friday consumer sentiment and Powell speech after.
The goal is to remain truthful to the plan and enjoy trading for what it is!
Note
First high already taken. Price is reacting to M15 supply but my expectation is that it will continue higher and there's a chance it will mitigate the H4 supply at the top, as mentioned above. Notice how I was expecting price to grind higher on Monday and Tuesday, which it did. This move indicates that even though buyers took control, most traders are still on the sidelines, waiting for news. The next 3 days will be crucial, as fundamental data will dictate where price is going for the next few weeks imo, especially if we breakdown. There's also the possibility that price will continue higher and wait for the CPI or ECB in September before making any major bearish move.
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