NIFTY - WHO WILL GET BURNT THIS DUSSEHRA- BULLS OR BEARS?
Updated
THIS IS THE FOURTH PART OF THE ANALYSIS ON NIFTY -1.24% 2.32% FALL. IF YOU NOT READ THE PREVIOUS ONE 3 POSTS, PLEASE READ THE SAME FOR BETTER UNDERSTANDING. I HAVE ALSO SHARED ITS LINK BELOW.
Some Lines I said in the previous post
“In the process to up,There has been 2 Gaps created in the past downfall and crossed 2 Fibo support (Mentioned Below) which will stop the market from going up.
Resistance 1 - Gap 1 - 10520-10550
Resistance 2 - Fibo Resistance 38.2 - 10650
Resistance 3 - Gap 2 - 10750-10850
Resistance 4 - Fibo Resistance 0.5 - 10860
The Above 4 levels are going to act as major resistance. Even after being optimistic, I do not feel market will be able to cross Resistance 3.”
Nifty preached the levels.
The first 2 resistances were broken. However the market reversed from the 10700 Levels. It fell a huge 260 Points to close at 10453. FII Data suggest they have only closed 10% of their Index shorts. If 10% can bring so much carnage, what will the remaining 90% do?
These resistance levels are going to be the same. Although Resistance 1 is not all that strong now.
Candles Formation
The last 2 day candles have created a Bearish Engulfing pattern, which an extremely effective bearish pattern. A Major Gap up closing below yesterdays Low shows the sentiment of the market is really not good.
Important Event
1. Reliance result – It was announced this week and it was not much good. We can expect some downfall.
2. HDFC Bank Result – To be announced 20 Oct 2018.
While Reliance is looking for a Fall. Bad Result of HDFC Bank can impact Nifty badly. Reliance and HDFCs together hold heavy weightage in Nifty and can show us a new low of this series.
As i already shared Pullback are short term and short lived. Thus, it was a pullback of 2 days and Bears again came in the driver seat. on Wednesday. Also these pullbacks gives good level to again short the market.
Please also note : FII even after covering have 90K Shorts. The fall can be deffer-ed but is certain to come until FII decide to cut their shorts in losses. (which never happen :P)
Support Levels
Support 1 – Fibo Support 38.2 - 10350
Support 2 – Trendline Support - 10240
Support 3 – Historic 10160
Support 4 – Fibo Support 23.6 – 10000
The Bulls might get roasted this DUSSEHRA and DIWALI. 10K seems near.
These are just my thoughts, and my view to the things going around. I hope it Helps.
All counter views welcomed if they intend a fruitful discussion. And If Warren Buffet says he still learns, who are we to say or believe that we know all. Lets learn together and Earn together.
Some Lines I said in the previous post
“In the process to up,There has been 2 Gaps created in the past downfall and crossed 2 Fibo support (Mentioned Below) which will stop the market from going up.
Resistance 1 - Gap 1 - 10520-10550
Resistance 2 - Fibo Resistance 38.2 - 10650
Resistance 3 - Gap 2 - 10750-10850
Resistance 4 - Fibo Resistance 0.5 - 10860
The Above 4 levels are going to act as major resistance. Even after being optimistic, I do not feel market will be able to cross Resistance 3.”
Nifty preached the levels.
The first 2 resistances were broken. However the market reversed from the 10700 Levels. It fell a huge 260 Points to close at 10453. FII Data suggest they have only closed 10% of their Index shorts. If 10% can bring so much carnage, what will the remaining 90% do?
These resistance levels are going to be the same. Although Resistance 1 is not all that strong now.
Candles Formation
The last 2 day candles have created a Bearish Engulfing pattern, which an extremely effective bearish pattern. A Major Gap up closing below yesterdays Low shows the sentiment of the market is really not good.
Important Event
1. Reliance result – It was announced this week and it was not much good. We can expect some downfall.
2. HDFC Bank Result – To be announced 20 Oct 2018.
While Reliance is looking for a Fall. Bad Result of HDFC Bank can impact Nifty badly. Reliance and HDFCs together hold heavy weightage in Nifty and can show us a new low of this series.
As i already shared Pullback are short term and short lived. Thus, it was a pullback of 2 days and Bears again came in the driver seat. on Wednesday. Also these pullbacks gives good level to again short the market.
Please also note : FII even after covering have 90K Shorts. The fall can be deffer-ed but is certain to come until FII decide to cut their shorts in losses. (which never happen :P)
Support Levels
Support 1 – Fibo Support 38.2 - 10350
Support 2 – Trendline Support - 10240
Support 3 – Historic 10160
Support 4 – Fibo Support 23.6 – 10000
The Bulls might get roasted this DUSSEHRA and DIWALI. 10K seems near.
These are just my thoughts, and my view to the things going around. I hope it Helps.
All counter views welcomed if they intend a fruitful discussion. And If Warren Buffet says he still learns, who are we to say or believe that we know all. Lets learn together and Earn together.
Note
Extract from the post dated 11 October"So, those 10K longs might be pertaining to IT sector which are now being closed. So IT sector might stay in pressure in coming days. Nifty -1.24% 50 has around 12% allocated to IT Sector. Any drastic fall in IT can drag Nifty -1.24% big way. The market probably recovered today, so FII could exit their 10K Long positions."
Don't be shocked today - Mindtree TCS TataElexi Infy all falling.
And Reliance Falling too. :P
Hope updates are helping. :)
Note
Market falling as expected.Low of 10104 touched.
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