Nifty: Trade data analysis and important support and resistance
Updated
The red zone line drawn in our December 15, 2020 analysis report provided perfect. Is it a one off fall or Would Nifty fall further
Let us look at what F&O trade data has in store for us
FIIs Net sold 3133 contracts worth Rs 264.93 Cr
Futures Data
- Retail participants squared off 20.76 K Long Contracts & squared off 5.62 K Short contracts
- FIIs squared off 1.25 K Long Contracts and added 1.88 K Short Contracts
- Pro traders added 15.06 K Long contracts and squared off 1.08 K Short contracts
Call Option
- Retail participants added 3.79 Lakh Call Long Contracts & added 2.37 Lakh Short contracts
- FIIs added 39.33 K Call Long Contracts and added 52.86 K Call Short Contracts
- Pro traders added 58.55 K Call Long contracts and added 1.86 Lakh Short contracts
Put Option
- Retail participants squared off 1.55 Lakh Put Long Contracts & exited from 90.53 K Put Short contracts
- FIIs added 37.30 K Put Long Contracts and added 12.70 K Short Contracts
- Pro traders added 3.29 K Put Long contracts and exited from 33.68K Put Short contracts
Put Call ratio is at 0.92
Today’s trade saw Retail Participants unwinding their Long Positions in general are Net Short 0.79 Long Position for every 1 Short Contract,
FIIs have not done any major activity today in Index Futures front and still Net Long in the ratio of 2.06 :: 1. So we might have to wait and see what they are up to...
Proprietary traders looks likely to have used today’s dip to go Long in Index Futures.
Digging deeper into the data
We see Bank Nifty Open Interest rising by 15.97% and Nifty Open Interest reducing by 9.22%.
So Unwinding in Long position by Retail participants looks likely to have happened in Nifty Futures. Proprietary Buying looks likely to have happened in Bank Nifty.
Major Call option activity in Nifty happened in 13600 & 13700 Call option
Important resistance levels on the upside
13458 / 13530 / 13583 / 13674
Support seen at
13215 / 13151 / 13050
Prima facie Data Analysis suggests that major Call Option buyers would break even only if Nifty closes above 13674 on December 24, 2020. Major Call Option sellers would be happy if Nifty closes below 13583 on December 24, 2020.
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Disclaimer:
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
- We do our best to ensure that the data we release is complete, accurate and useful. However, because we do not create the data, and because the processing required to make the data useful is complex, we cannot be liable for omissions or inaccuracies
- The user expressly acknowledges that the Data may contain some nonconformities, defects, or errors.
- Neither Indiamarketoutlook nor the author shall be liable for any claim for any loss, or other damage arising from access to or use of data or information
Let us look at what F&O trade data has in store for us
FIIs Net sold 3133 contracts worth Rs 264.93 Cr
Futures Data
- Retail participants squared off 20.76 K Long Contracts & squared off 5.62 K Short contracts
- FIIs squared off 1.25 K Long Contracts and added 1.88 K Short Contracts
- Pro traders added 15.06 K Long contracts and squared off 1.08 K Short contracts
Call Option
- Retail participants added 3.79 Lakh Call Long Contracts & added 2.37 Lakh Short contracts
- FIIs added 39.33 K Call Long Contracts and added 52.86 K Call Short Contracts
- Pro traders added 58.55 K Call Long contracts and added 1.86 Lakh Short contracts
Put Option
- Retail participants squared off 1.55 Lakh Put Long Contracts & exited from 90.53 K Put Short contracts
- FIIs added 37.30 K Put Long Contracts and added 12.70 K Short Contracts
- Pro traders added 3.29 K Put Long contracts and exited from 33.68K Put Short contracts
Put Call ratio is at 0.92
Today’s trade saw Retail Participants unwinding their Long Positions in general are Net Short 0.79 Long Position for every 1 Short Contract,
FIIs have not done any major activity today in Index Futures front and still Net Long in the ratio of 2.06 :: 1. So we might have to wait and see what they are up to...
Proprietary traders looks likely to have used today’s dip to go Long in Index Futures.
Digging deeper into the data
We see Bank Nifty Open Interest rising by 15.97% and Nifty Open Interest reducing by 9.22%.
So Unwinding in Long position by Retail participants looks likely to have happened in Nifty Futures. Proprietary Buying looks likely to have happened in Bank Nifty.
Major Call option activity in Nifty happened in 13600 & 13700 Call option
Important resistance levels on the upside
13458 / 13530 / 13583 / 13674
Support seen at
13215 / 13151 / 13050
Prima facie Data Analysis suggests that major Call Option buyers would break even only if Nifty closes above 13674 on December 24, 2020. Major Call Option sellers would be happy if Nifty closes below 13583 on December 24, 2020.
If you find the analysis helpful Do hit the Like button
Follow for more such analysis and ideas.
To receive Data analysis in your email, kindly reach out to me in PM
Take care & Safe trading…!!!
Disclaimer:
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
- We do our best to ensure that the data we release is complete, accurate and useful. However, because we do not create the data, and because the processing required to make the data useful is complex, we cannot be liable for omissions or inaccuracies
- The user expressly acknowledges that the Data may contain some nonconformities, defects, or errors.
- Neither Indiamarketoutlook nor the author shall be liable for any claim for any loss, or other damage arising from access to or use of data or information
Note
1st Resistance level mentioned above 13458It made a high of 13446.75
1st level of support mentioned above 13215
And Nifty made a low of 13192.90
CMP 13288
Going forward, the green line is the Lakshman Rekha for Nifty
Note
Although Nifty did break the green line temporarily, it held exactly at the yellow zone level....which is where we have marked a support arrow...
Do your home work once... reap the benefits.
Kindly avoid buying options now....especially Put options
The IVs of the options have jumped from 16 to 30 odd levels which make them very expensive...
Despite the carnage we saw yesterday, for today we suggested a 330 Put short in LIC HSG FIN around 7 ( Closing price was 5.75). So that tells you we had anticipated a dip today and recovery thereafter... and that is precisely what we are seeing...
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
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