DECODING NIFTY50's NEXT MOVES - A PROFIT BOOKING COMING SOON ?

Nifty50 is continuously hitting fresh record highs at a faster pace tirelessly. There is definitely strong momentum by bulls towards upside but at the same time we can't deny the fact the there's a thing called 'Valuations' which are hinting that markets are modestly overvalued.

The run after breakout of 23500 has been tremendous & we have seen Nifty gained more than 1000 points back to back but as per my experience and my view, A profit booking & retracement is pending the the market.

So, with that view, I am creating short positions in Nifty far month futures (as premiums are much more there) at CMP 24620. I will add more position between 24800 - 24900 & will hold this position with SL above 25K.

I am expecting markets to witness a strong profit booking in coming sessions as markets are extremely overbought already & budget is scheduled in next week. Any negative news in or related to union budget will trigger strong profit booking in market.

I have also mentioned targets for my short position in the chart above & tried to decode Nifty's trend for months to come. Let's see what time will show us.

Trade active

CMP 24530

Future position 90 points in profit.

Trade active

CMP 24830

Adding more quantity here.
Avg sell price now is 24725
Holding with 25050 SL for mentioned targets.

Trade active

CMP 24690

Trade active

CMP 24520
Future position 205 points in profit.

Bearish Engulfing made on daily TF. Which is a good sign for sellers.

Trade active

CMP 24320
Future Position 405 points in profit. Holding with CTC SL now.

Trade closed manually

CMP 24700

Although Nifty went till 24080 (more than 600 points in profit) after sharing my trading idea & shorting it but my targets were much bigger & it is now trying to recover so better to close CTC. I will short it again if getting any trend reversal indication & opportunity.

Trade active

CMP 24952

Nifty is trading in a narrow range of 24800 - 25000 since last two days & momentum on upside is missing. So, I'm creating short positions in futures again at CMP 24952 with SL 25200

Targets are same as mentioned in the idea.

Trade active

CMP 25075

Adding more short position here in futures.
Avg sell price now is 25014
Holding with SL 25250

Trade active

CMP 24772

Move started. Future position 242 points in profit.

P.S. - As we have seen historically, Markets usually go up in anticipation of rate cuts before rate cuts by reserve banks (That's why we have seen a strong bull market since April 2023) but when rate cuts actually happen, markets tend to reverse their direction. That's what I am anticipating now. Markets may reverse their course for next 6-15 months.

Trade active

CMP 24690

Future position 385 points in profit.

Trade active

CMP 24220

Future position 855 points in profit. Holding with Trailing SL.

Trade active

CMP 23900

Future position 1175 points in profit. Holding with full conviction. :)

Trade active

CMP 24162

Future position active & 852 points in profit.

Trade closed: target reached

CMP 24120

Market is consolidating. This consolidation may result in an upside retracement. Currently my position is 900 points in profit. So better to book profit at CMP & I will enter again either on break down of 23800 or around 24700-24800.

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