Weekly Educational Series - PART 2

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index

Continued from Weekly Educational Series - PART 1 ;


3. Expectancy

So, now we have got our risk reward ratio and winrate.
We move on to calculate the expectancy of our trading strategy.

The formula is,
Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) – (Probability of Loss * Average Loss)

So, in our scenario,

Risk Reward Ratio = 2:1
Winrate = 60%

we get,

Probability of win = 60 % = 0.6
Average win = Reward = 3
Probability of loss = 40 % = 0.4
Average loss = Risk = 1

Putting these values in the formula, we get ;

Expectancy = ( 0.6 * 3 ) - ( 0.4 * 1 )
= 1.8 - 0.4
= 1.4

Here, we get an expectancy of 1.4 ,
that is
1.4 is the average rupees you can expect to win per rupee at risk.

{Example : you do 10 trades with 3:1 Risk Reward Ratio ;
you win 60 % - earn 6 trades * 3 Rupees (18)
you lose 40 % - lose 4 trades * 1 Rupee (4)

you end up earning 14 Rupees even when you were right just 6 out of 10 times }

This is a positive expectancy model, which we seek, to ensure that we will earn money in the long run. Professional traders aren't worried if their trade hits stop loss, because of this reason, that they know they will earn money ultimately.



So, after learning all these concepts,
what I want you to do is,

from now on,

pull out your charts and journal,
see what works and what doesn't,
set a specific strategy,

determine the Risk Reward Ratio suitable to it,
paper trade / real trade / past data - have a look and find out the winrate

Calculate expectancy.

What answers do you get ?
Is it positive or negative ?

How much can you expect to earn in the long run?


Ok, so that was the first post, the essential basics of trading, and utmost requirement of a trading plan.

I would like to hear from you all 3 things,

1. Whether you were able to understand and found it helpful ?
2. Whether you want more posts like these ? If yes, on what topics?
3. What does your expectancy come out to be ?


Very nice article..!!
+1 Reply
dravya CPR_Trader
@CPR_Trader, thanks bro
yes sir, i really found it useful, a new way to look at risk reward ratio..
yes sir we want more such post, please keep posting, anything u will post would be usefull for us..
Thank you..
dravya asif06542
@asif06542, You're welcome Asif. I'd definitely post soon. I posted postion/trade management idea above in related ideas (ITC). Have a look, you'll learn more :)
i joined u very late sir, but i am checking all your previous posts to learn more from you...
dravya asif06542
@asif06542, yeah, I saw that, it shows how keen you are to learn. No worries, I just started posting two weeks back, much more to come.
+1 Reply
Great Work, Please continue .... got new way to calculate....
dravya dhirajfanish
@dhirajfanish, Thanks dhiraj, yeah i'll try my best. glad to help.
Keep posting, it takes time to get noticed.
dravya AMBRISH
@AMBRISH, Point. I'll try to. Regards.