SaurabhSethi

Nifty 50 View For The Budget Week!

Long
NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
During the last few days I have been hearing a lot of noise from various sources that after the budget the market will crash badly and nifty 50 will break the 14000 levels and correct itself until 12000 levels. However, I have a totally opposite view and a perception towards the market post budget. I think that the rally which came from the 7000 levels, its top has not been made yet and I feel that post budget nifty will again test its ATH and move further ahead. My analysis has been briefly explained below:-

1) Budget view- I am expecting a very decent budget. Nothing too extraordinary nor anything to worry about!
2) Now coming to the main analysis, tomorrow ( ie . 27-01-2021, Wednesday) if the Tuesday's low is broken out then it is highly probable that Nifty may test 14000 levels within 1-2 days max.
3) 14000 being a very major support level for nifty , and if we see that after testing the 14000 levels nifty starts taking support over there and does not breakdown further, this will be the first bullish sign of the upcoming rally we may witness post budget. Also, we can clearly see on the chart that the 50% correction fibo level for the rally which came from the 13150 levels for nifty 50 comes out to be around 14000.
4) After taking support at 14000 levels till Thursday, nifty may move towards the range of 14360-14500 which is a major confusion zone (marked on chart) for both bulls as well as bears and none of them will create any big positions for the budget on Friday if nifty closes within this range on Friday. This will give us further confirmation for our bullish view.
5) And finally after the budget we can expect a good rally of about 500-700 points in nifty 50 provided all of the above mentioned things happen within this week.
6) I will be creating my positions based on the above analysis. I will create a few bullish positions when nifty starts taking support at 14000 and then later on Friday I may add on to my positions if nifty closes between the confusion zone.

P.S. This is just my view and please consult your financial advisor before taking any positions. Also, do share your views in the comments.
Thanks
Saurabh Sethi