AP17FX

NZDJPY Top-Down Analysis

Short
OANDA:NZDJPY   New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen
Hello Traders,

Here is the Top-Down Analysis of NZDJPY (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for

Week 44 - 26 Oct

M > Market is moving in a downward channel , price tested resistance of channel and dropping after rejection. Price has already dropped till 0.382 Fib level on monthly bullish impulse.

W > Price tested resistance level thrice and faced rejection creating triple top. We can see a W formation and expect price to drop and test its neck. However for last 4 months price is moving in a range of about 300 pips.

D > Price dropped till weekly demand zone again and faced rejection creating double bottom . Price moved up to test weekly supply zone and after rejection started dropping again. We will continue with 3 bearish targets identified last week.
1. Weekly demand zone where price created double bottom last time.
2. Demand zone at odd candle (66.67) on D chart, above neck of W formation.
3. Neck of W formation. Drop till this level will create an inverted H & S pattern.

As per COT NZD saw closure of both Long and Short positions further improving net positions, whereas ZXY was weak during the said week but it gained strength last week. JPY saw closure of Long and addition of major Short positions reducing net positions further however N-R added few Long and closed major Short positions. JXY during the said week ended in a Doji but improved its position last week.
NZD has been gaining strength slowly since June 2020 which is not in line with our target. However JPY being a safe heaven can strengthen on account of short term uncertainty till outcome of US election. We will hence identify invalidation level for bearish target.

4H > Price is currently back again to test weekly supply zone . A break to the downside will confirm bearish move but a break to the upside till daily resistance will invalidate our target.

Pair Correlation > NZDJPY has positive correlation with NZDUSD , AUDUSD and AUDJPY and negative correlation with EURAUD .

This was my Idea and I hope you find it useful. If you find the analysis of help please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW for receiving all updates during the week. In the comment section share your view or ask questions.

Thank You
AP17FX
Trade active: Target 1 achieved.

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