Week Ahead - May 26 - 29, 2020

OANDA:SPX500USD   S&P 500 Index
I hope everyone had a good Memorial Day.

The bulls definitely have the price action on their side. We came right down to the old neckline (new uptrendline) as I said we would and the bears didn't even put up a fight we just briefly tapped it and went straight back up very bullish price action. Remember price action is the most important thing. How can you trade this? Assuming your not in, wait for drop to uptrendline and buy a bounce but wait for confirmation to the upside and set a stop a bit below the uptrendline. Two weeks ago you can see that wxy pattern in which we made a low, lower high, higher low - which is typically a trend change. With that being said the trend is bullish until its not, we've burned thru the bearish divergences on the daily chart that I saw last week depending on how we close. Now what hope do the bears have, well they haven't shown up to play. The only good news for the bears is the 4 hour charts do look overbought enough, if it were to go down to the bottom of rsi (which it doesn't have to) we would break the uptrendline. It will eventually have to go to the bottom but it can stay near the top for awhile. Depending on how we close the Bears might have bearish divergence.

News to watch:
Oil has been moving up stock market positive. Last week we saw buying in not only tech stocks but also weaker sectors stock market positive. The fact that this market doesn't want to go down on bad news is stock market positive. So even the worst economy run our history doesn't matter. The trade war should be stock market negative but bad news hasn't mattered. Any vaccine developments could move the markets. Watch 10 year yield if it breaks above .74 stock market positive, below .6 that is negative.


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