rishiguy

US10Y scaring the markets again?

Long
TVC:US10Y   US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield
I do not have the detailed economic understanding of this matter but have observed that a rise in the US 10 year treasury yields leads to a overall feeling of fear and turmoil in the markets. Back in the March and April of 2021, US10Y was continuously making news as it was reaching levels of about 1.75, with commentators discussing how a test of the levels of 2 and beyond could lead to a sharp sell off in the markets. But, it failed to move past decisively beyond the 1.75 levels as market on the chart.
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Since then I have been following this ticker, US10Y corrected back to levels of around 1.12 which it failed to break below in July and August. After that it had started forming higher lows leading to bullish structure. It was consolidating just below 1.38 trying to break through it, which it finally did on the 23rd of September.

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In short, if this trend continues upward leading the US10Y to the April highs of 1.75 and beyond, we could observe the markets struggling to move ahead, also possibly correcting. It would be prudent to keep watch.

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Comment: After achieving a peak of 1.70 on 21.10.21, US10Y had pulled back to a low of 1.41 on 09.11.21 which was pretty close to the 200EMA which is around 1.39. It has given a large continuation bar on 10.11.21 possibly reacting to the 6.2% inflation figure in the US. Keep watch as this could be the start of a fresh leg upwards which could take us to a retest of 1.75 in the near future.