JohnSikes73

A beautiful triangle pattern

Short
OANDA:USDINR   U.S. Dollar / Indian Rupee
An diminishing triangle pattern has formed between the trend line (in orange) and the support line (again in orange) at 75.2.

75.2 is a strong support and has supported the scrip 4-5 times since 8th June. I am betting slightly higher on the breakout happening on the downside. The second wave has led to serious outflow of USD to other currencies (EUR, YEN, CNY ).

Let's see what happens.

Comments

Support broken now. Can we see 74 coming now
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JohnSikes73 jithinmp2710
@jithinmp2710, It's unclear to me as to why the fall happened so quickly. You can go through my comment below. But overall I feel there might be a small upwards correction followed by consolidation. But we should be ready for any vaccine news. Any positive results will see scrip breach 74.3 and maybe even touch 74.
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jithinmp2710 JohnSikes73
@JohnSikes73, thanks
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Sir..i bought 3 lot usdinr 29 july@75.06 for 1 month holding...how much my sl & target???
Reply
JohnSikes73 Rajasarma
@Rajasarma, I did say that the 75.2 support will be broken, but I did not imagine it would fall in this fashion. Now the july future will be trading at 74.95 tomorrow when market opens. It is not clear to me why it chose to fall by 1.2% today. Some are saying its the weakening dollar (dollar index went down, but nearly not this much) and positive test results for vaccine by Pfizer. But I somehow feel there will be consolidation for now, even a small upward correction is possible. But don't wait too much. A lot of people have shorted, and there will be constant short covering. Just book a small profit and exit the position. And always remember, NEVER GO AGAINST THE TREND. If you missed catching the breakout, don't take a position unless the scrip has settled. Because amidst all the volatility, there will be constant short selling and short covering and its very tough to sense the point from which profit booking will start. It depends on time elapsed since selling started as well strong support levels. Generally speaking profit booking start after an hour since the breakout began.

My advice to you would be to book some little profit from the short covering that will follow and exit the position. Instead you can sell weekly OTM call option right now. Then we'll see from tomorrow how the story proceeds.
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