XAU/USD: Is the 2650 Break Sustainable or Driven by Emotion?

Oct 2

Yesterday, XAUUSD (Gold) broke back above the 2650 level, a point of significant psychological and technical importance. This level is critical due to the confluence of a horizontal support line and the falling trendline of the down-channel pattern.
While this upward break may seem promising, I believe it is not likely to be a sustainable move.

In my view, this breakout appears to be driven more by emotional reactions rather than genuine market demand.
As a result, I believe the current correction for Gold is not yet complete, and we could see another downward move in the near future.

From a technical perspective, the 2650 level acts as a critical "line in the sand." Should the price drop back below this level, the first target would likely be the recent low, with the potential for an extended decline towards the next major support zone around 2590. This area marks an important technical level that could offer stronger support if the downtrend continues.

At the time of writing, I am currently out of the market, and waiting for further clarification.
I am particularly looking for a decisive drop back below 2650, which would reinforce my bearish outlook and provide confirmation for a potential short trade.

Oct 2

Trade active

XauUsd is flirting with 2650 important level.
IMO, this level will not hold.
I m looking to sell rallies.
Negation comes with a new local high and as for target, recent low could be a good place for closing

Oct 2

Trade active

As expected, Gold spiked up and couldn't hold gains.
A dive under 2600 becomes very probable

Oct 3

Trade closed manually

I decided to close XauUsd around break even.
Is indecise so far