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Economic Cycles

Phases of the market - The "AMD" Effect In trading, the terms accumulation, manipulation, and distribution represent distinct phases of market behavior, driven by the strategies of large institutional players such as banks, hedge funds, or market makers. These phases reflect how these entities operate to achieve their objectives while influencing market psychology and price movements. At the core of these phases lies the concept of supply and demand. However, recognizing where these phases occur within the market is crucial for traders. Let’s break them down for better understanding: Let us breakdown these terms to understand them in a better way : 1. Accumulation Phase : This is when big players, like banks or hedge funds, start buying a lot of shares of a stock or asset without causing the price to rise too much. They do it quietly so that others don’t notice what they’re up to. The price tends to remain flat and trades within a narrow range since fewer trades are happening. A lot of traders tend to loose the plot here since they are unable to understand if this accumulation is occurring in the wholesale area or the retail area and this is the KEY!!! If prices are accumulating in the wholesale area it is more likely the prices are going to push to the upside than downside. This phase is generally ignored by most retail traders and investors as they consider this as a dull market environment. This is highlighted in a yellow rectangle on the chart. 2. Manipulation Phase : This is a phase where big players intentionally create sharp price swings to confuse or scare smaller traders (retail traders). The goal is to trick people into making the wrong moves, like selling too early or buying at the wrong time. Usually the big players create sudden spikes to the upside or downside. These spikes in general trend to hit majority of the stop losses of the retail traders causing them to loose money more frequently. Many smaller traders lose money here because they react emotionally or fall for fake signals, not realizing they’re being played by smarter, bigger players. This is highlighted in a blue rectangle on the chart 3. Distribution Phase: This is the stage where the big players move the market significantly to the upside or to the downside depending upon the prices being in the wholesale or the retail section. This phase generally tends to have higher volumes. Majority of the retail traders tend to enter at the very end of this phase and get trapped in the market. This is highlighted in an orange rectangle on the chart This cycle often repeats itself forming the basis of the Wyckoff Market Cycle. Since price is fractal in nature these phases occur on all time frames. For illustration purposes we have taken an example of a Nifty chart. I have manually plotted the phases of the market and illustrated how these phases play out however these phases can be coded using pine script as well. I have divided the swing high and the swing low in two parts. The lower section signifies" wholesale area" where the big players would be buyers and the upper section signifies retail prices where the big players would be sellers. Now if you watch the wholesale area carefully all the manipulations are taking place in the downward direction(highlighted in blue rectangle) which is signifying that prices are moving down first before moving up. The retail trader is getting trapped in the false breakout to the upside and the moment that happens he wants to "Buy" and keeps a stop loss below the consolidation only for the stop loss to get triggered first and then price moving in the intended direction. Similarly, in the "retail area", manipulations often occur in the upward direction (highlighted in the blue rectangle). This means prices initially move higher before reversing downward. Retail traders frequently fall into the trap of reacting to a **false breakdown**. When prices appear to break down, these traders rush to "sell" and place their stop-loss orders above the consolidation. Unfortunately, their stop-losses are often triggered first, only for the price to then move in the intended direction afterward. This pattern is a common occurrence in the market, happening almost daily. It underscores the importance of understanding these manipulative moves to strategically place stop-loss orders in safer locations. Relying solely on market phases to make trading decisions is not enough to ensure consistent success. Instead, combining this knowledge with an understanding of the **bigger picture**—the overall price structure and market context—is essential. Once this framework is established, traders can confidently apply any price action strategy for entry and exit points. With practice, identifying these phases on your charts becomes much easier. I hope you find this information valuable, and with some effort, you’ll be able to spot these patterns regularly. Good luck, and happy trading!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by VishalSubandh
11
"BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFUL.” Subject : During this period, I view the market downturn as an opportunity to acquire quality stocks at lower valuations for long-term investment. As mentioned above, I am particularly interested in key levels for potential entry points. I wanted to share these insights with all of you, hoping you find them helpful. Thank you, everyone!🙏🏻 The recent downturn in both Indian and global stock markets can be attributed to several key factors: 1. Monetary Policy Shifts: The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent decision to reduce the number of projected interest rate cuts for 2025 has heightened investor concerns. 2. Rising Treasury Yields: A significant selloff in long-dated U.S. government debt has pushed 10- and 30-year Treasury yields to their highest levels in nearly seven months. This trend poses a threat to stock valuations, as higher yields make risk-free government debt more attractive compared to equities. 3. Geopolitical Concerns: The potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency and his proposed economic policies, have raised fears of increased inflation and global trade tensions. These uncertainties contribute to market instability. * Escalating conflicts in regions such as the Middle East have increased market volatility and investor uncertainty. 4. Foreign Investor Behavior: In India, heavy selling by foreign institutional investors has exerted downward pressure on markets. This trend is influenced by global monetary policies and a reduced appetite for risk amid prevailing uncertainties. 5. Sector-Specific Declines: Sectors such as financials and information technology have experienced notable losses, further dragging down market indices. These combined factors have led to a bearish trend in both Indian and international stock markets in recent weeks. About Reliance industries limited 📉: 1. Weak Performance in the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) Segment: RIL's O2C business, a significant revenue contributor, has faced challenges due to shrinking margins amid global oversupply. In the second quarter of FY25, the company reported a 5% decline in net profit, largely attributed to poor performance in its oil refining and petrochemical business. This segment was significantly impacted by cheap Russian crude oil flooding the market, pushing product margins lower. 2. Delays in IPOs of Jio and Retail. 3. Slowing Growth in the Retail Business: RIL's retail division has encountered slower growth, influenced by factors such as rising real estate costs and increased. 4. Broader Market Trends and Investor Behavior. #valueinvesting. #indianstockmarket. #Reliance
NSE:RELIANCEEducation
by Sateesh07
BANK NIFTY:TIME CYCLE ANALYSISCYCLE PRINCIPLES: 1. The Principle of Commonality – Markets(Index) and security price(stocks) movements have many elements in common. In particular they tend to have common high and low points that coincide with cycles. 2. The Principle of Cyclicality – Price movements correspond to a combination of waves that exhibit cyclic characteristics. 3. The Principle of Summation – Cycle waves of different degrees combine to affect price movement and do so by adding the waves together. 4. The Principle of Harmonicity – Cycle waves of different degrees are harmonized and are related by a small integer value.comaan harmoics are 2nd and 3rd or 1/2 and 1/3. 5. The Principle of Synchronicity – Cycle waves are phased and synchronized at price troughs. 6. The Principle of Proportionality – Waves in price movement have amplitude that is proportional to their wavelength. 7. The Principle of Nominality – A specific, nominal collection of harmonically related waves is common to all price movements. 8. The Principle of Variation – Variation in harmonicity, synchronicity, proportionality and nominality (previous 4 principles) is expected. FOLLOWING CYCLES ARE SHOWN HERE: Cycle with second harmonic has given mid cycle dip where as cycle with 3rd harmonic has given higher peak there by confirming presence of cycle through sine wave like price strucutre. 270 DAYS:WHITE(WORKING IN 3RD HARMONIC,meaning it is divided in 3 equal length cycle of 90 days each) 90 DAYS:PINK(WORKING IN 2ND HARMONIC,meaning it is divided in 2 equal length cycle of 45 days each) 45 DAYS:GREEN(WORKING IN 3RD HARMONIC,meaning it is divided in 2 equal length cycle of 15 days each) 15 DAYS:YELLOW(WORKING IN 2ND HARMONIC,NOT SHOWN HERE) Above mentioned things represents first 5 Principle of cycle theory,as we can see price movement having cyclic characteristics and higher degree cycle being divided in it's 2nd or 3rd harmonics,there by forming lows/troughs together.If we do summation of lower degree cycles then we get higher degree cycle which is representing principle of summation. OBSERVATIONS: #CURRENT PHASE OF CYCLE: 270 DAYS:BEARISH 90 DAYS:BEARISH 45 DAYS:BULLISH 15 DAYS:BULLISH #Briefings of 270 DAYS CYCLE: In the current 270 days cycle with 3rd harmonic,we have already seen 3/4th cycle high around 39360,there by suggesting us that 270 days cycle has completely turned bearish #Briefings of 90 DAYS CYCLE: Rise from 8th march in current 90 days cycle can be attributed 90 day cycle's 2nd harmonic cycle working in bullish phase,post mid-cycle dip @32155.Chances of this current rise to cross highest high of current 90 day cycle(39424) is very low as current 90 day cycle itself has turned negative or bearish #Briefings of 45 DAYS CYCLE: As it is working in it's 3rd harmonic meaning current 45 day cycle will have three 15 day's cycle or will be divided in three 15 days cycle.Currently 1st 15 day cycle is going on and it has reached it's halfway point meaning going ahead we can see one dip around 28-30 th march which will complete first 15 day cycle,from there we can again see prices pushing higher in order to make 45 day's mid-cycle high,this high can be higher then high registered in first 15 day cycle and around 22 april second 15 day cycle will end meaning a dip in price around 20-22 nd april,this will be followed by last 15 day cycle rise post where in we will see price unable to cross high posted in second 15 day cycle there by turning every cycle(15,45,90,270) negative. 13th May is the day when entire current 270 day cycle is ending meaning in 2nd-3rd week of may we can see bank nifty forming important low. Analysis: Scenario-1:Bearish/Road-blocks ahead for prices to move higher from current levels 1)FLD(136 days) @ 36436. 2)61.8% retracement from high to low of previous 45 day cycle @ 36647. 3)Ichimoku cloud @ 36428. 4)Falling OI in futures contract from last 6 days. 5)Higher degree cycle(270 and 90) has already turned negative indicating lower probability of making new high till 13th may. 6)We have seen prices breaching previous 90 day cycle low in current 90 day cycle again indicating selling pressure. Personal view: As bigger cycle has turned negative buying from current levels should be avoided and long positions should be protected with stop-loss as per once risk appetite.I feel post 12th April(2nd ,15 day cycle peak zone starts of current 45 day cycle)we can see decent selling pressure in Bank nifty as post 12th April all the major cycle's will turn negative. Disclaimer:Analysis/views shown here are only for educational purpose.Trading position should not be taken on its basis.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by UNDERDOG-29
25
NIFTY:TIME CYCLE INVERSIONConcept of Time Cycle: #A cycle is something that influences the price movement of a financial market to move up towards a peak, and then to move down towards a trough (or low point). #It repeats that action on a fairly regular basis or exist in continuous time. #There are multiple cycles which influence the price movement of any financial market.The multiple cycles that influence price movements combine in a very particular way. #This multiple cycle low's are synchronized as low are made on the back of "fear/panic" and psychologically human tends to experience fear in mass hence different cycle lows are concentrated where as high's of different cycles are scattered as high's are driven by "GREED" which is rather more subjective. #J.M.HURST inventor of cycle theory has given a nominal model which states comman cycle's that are found in financial markets. #Due to multiple cycle going on at the same time,we can see variation in it's wave length(Cycle period). Observation over here: Since January 2021 we are seeing Nifty following 20-days time cycle there by making important pivot low's near vertical line showing cycle period day on most of the occasions till January 2022. Since January 2022 we are seeing inversion happening in the time cycle meaning instead of catching or making important pivot low near cycle period day we are seeing market making important pivot high post which we have seen significant market fall on last 2 occasion of cycle period day. Next cycle period day is on 17/03/2022.Hence going by this logic we can expect current up move to continue till 17/03/2022 post which we can see fall. Although this time in the current up move we have seen price breaking upper channel rasistance and has also managed to close above it and also above its previous pivot closing high of 16793(16800) in today's trading session,which in itself is bullish sign suggesting next target of 17050-80 on the upside,however from here risk reward is not favorable for taking long trade. Although channel rasistance is broken,from last 2 cycle we are seeing Nifty making pivot high's post which we have seen nifty falling and continuing on this logic post 17/03/2022 we can see fall in Nifty till at least previous pivot low of 15670 in order to confirm double bottom. Trade Setup 1)Need reversal candle near cycle period,price being at gap(17050-80) or previous price action zone(17340-400). 2)Next day market should trade below reversal candle low for atleast first hour in order to initiate trade. Stop-loss should be reversal candle high for short trade and target would be 15670. Disclaimer:This are just my views on the index,no position should be squared off or initiated on its basis.Posting this for my future reference.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by UNDERDOG-29
34
My reasons and Your reasons behind losses while trading.Why do people take losses in trading? The reasons or mistakes behind a trader make losses. I suggest you these reasons should not be repeated. If you might have also come to cross from this reason and got losses, you can type in comment number of specific reason what you have faced. In case, you also have another reason except in this post, please or kindly specify it in comment section . We will discuss it for a solution. 1). Stop following the right/perfect "trade-setup strategy" even if you are earning from it. For instance, you're going good in "breakout setup" but not following consistently, change suddenly/started to follow another pattern the setup. 2). Not enough Technical Knowledge. New traders just learn from YouTube or another resource about basic charting reading & indicators, such as MACD, chart pattern, trendline, etc. directly jump in practical trading with using full margin and later convert to loss. They believe trading is very easy but it's theoretically. In the practical, you need experience & practice a lot to earn. 3). Believing blindly on Other's Tips. A lot of traders pay high prices for tips/research/analysis and follow them blindly without applying margin management rules. As a result, they wipe out. I am not saying to ignore/avoid other research or analysis but you should apply margin management rules and also do paper trading on their research. 4). Try to cover loss, Expecting huge profit. When traders take a loss, they think to recover the loss by taking entry huge quantities to recover from little pips/points and fall into a huge loss. After taking a position with the perfect trade-setup, some traders expect more profit than the per-defined target. Later, they convert into loss because of changing setup. 5). You take risks that you can't afford to lose. Taking Unlimited Risk means, neither protective stop nor mental stop. Some people keep a 1:1 stop-loss and target ratio. Don't do this: "Holding losers trades while selling winners trades". 6). Lack of Emotion Control. Not following your own per-defined setup, for example, changing stop-loss or not exiting and expecting to recover, sometimes not booking profit and expecting more profit and finally convert into a loss. In more clear words, change your set-up frequently while real-time trading. Don't believe in Exit or Marry with Beliefs/Hopes(Hope is not a strategy). Believe in recover loss without any specific reasons and finally had to take a huge loss. I have seen in many new traders, they let Loose Grow and take a small profit. Avoid the words ‘hope”, “wish” or ‘feel’ when talking about a trade-setup. Believing that price cannot move higher/lower.
NSE:BAJAJFINSVEducation
by Trade-Technique
121
Market Cycles – Market Phases and Different TypesTypes of Market Phases There are 4 clear market phases, and all markets go through these phases in a repeated way: All markets go through 4 clear phases in a repeated way: 1.Accumulation Phase This phase occurs after the market has bottomed and early adopters begin to buy, figuring the worst is over. At this phase, valuations are very attractive, and general market sentiment is still bearish. Overall market sentiment begins to switch from negative to neutral. The end of an accumulation phase is typically marked by a breakout where trade sentiment moves towards neutral and traders start sniffing an opportunity. 2. Mark up Phase The market has been stable for a while and is beginning to move higher. The early majority are getting on the bandwagon. Traders, seeing the market is putting in higher lows and higher highs, recognize market direction and sentiment have changed. Markup phase begins with a breakout and tends to continue till there is a major pullback. Markets start trending upwards and more investors jump on the bandwagon as greed and the fear of losing out take over. 3. Distribution Phase This part of the cycle is identified by a period in which the bullish sentiment of the previous phase turns into a mixed sentiment. Prices can often stay locked in a trading range that can last a few weeks or even months. The distribution phase is a very emotional time for the markets, as investors are gripped by periods of complete fear interspersed with hope and even greed as the market may at times appear to be taking off again. This phase is marred with consolidations, breakouts and pullbacks at small scales, identifying trends become difficult. 4. Mark-down Phase The fourth and final phase in the cycle is the most painful for those who still hold positions. Many hang on because their investment has fallen below what they paid for it refusing to let go in the vain hope of being rescued. Timing the market correctly is the first step to making profits with TA. You would want to build a system that helps identify an entry point when the market is in the ‘mark up’ phase. The system should then also help you also identify when to exit once the asset is moving from the distribution to the ‘mark down’ phase.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn7241612
60
Combining Time cycle+Channel+Candle-stickI tried putting Elliot wave label on Asian paint daily,weekly and monthly chart and couldn't come to any logical conclusion,as the uptrend didnt followed any fib rule's neither did any major swing have an internal structure similar to elliot pattern cumulatively which could make an elliot pattern. Never the less i have shown channel on the monthly chart which seems to be acting as good support and rasistance and as an investor who likes safety and decent return and who does research on it's own look's for good entry point where he can invest his money. This can be achieved by plotting simple channel's across the chart connecting bottom's with bottoms and top;s with tops.Add to it i have tried plotting time cycle with 58 month period and it has also captured low's on most of the occassion. Price moving near upper channel and lossing momentum has resulted in minor corrections and an investor should wait for prices to come near channel support levels for entering into a stock.Here i have shown several top's where prices were nearing upper channel line and has given bearish reversal candle stick pattern near upper channel line signifying weakness in near future. observe when in the candle next to reversal candle low's of reversal candle is breached a meaning full correction has given good opportunity to investor enter into a stock,also top's are formed during the first 60-70% time of the cycle(not every time but in general) and we are already in that time zone of current cycle. To sum up,price have reversed from upper channel line and has formed grave stone doji top reversal pattern in last month and in this month we are seeing follow through selling when we breached previous month's candle's low along with time cycle approaching top forming time zone hence long positions should have a definate stop-loss depending upon one's risk apetite as we are seeing top formation characteristics on monthly charts. Fresh long's is not advisable at this point of time,on the downside level of 2250 remains crucial support.If in coming 4 months we get close below 2250 then we can assume that we have formed a significant top at 3500 level which would not be breached easily and would take significant time to overcome. Disclaimer:I am posting this analysis just for my future reference purpose,positions should not be build or exited on the basis of this analysis.
NSE:ASIANPAINTEducation
by UNDERDOG-29
17
GNA AXELS : Wave counts + Time cycleIn this post i have tried analyzing chart by combining both price/volumes and time factor simultaneously. For deciding trend and predicting price i have used Elliot wave theory and for timing and entry/exit i have used cycle theory. Elliot wave theory Impulse wave rule: 1)Wave 2 can't retrace wave 1 entirely 2)Wave 3 can't be shortest of wave 1,3 and 5 3)Wave 4 can't enter wave 1 price action zone. Time rules of Neo wave (Extention of Elliot wave) 1)Wave 2 takes equal or more time then wave 1 took to form 2)Wave 4 takes equal or more time then wave 3 took to form Wave labeling is done by following this rules. Wave Count Primary : Wave 4(Green) Intermediate : Wave A(White) Minor : Wave C(Orange) not shown. Analysis: As far as wave count's are concerned, since covid low's we are seeing impulsive rise in which we have completed wave 3 on Primary degree(green) and currently we are in Primary wave 4,Intermediate wave A, and going ahead prices will continue to correct or stay side-ways until Primary wave 4 is done,as wave 3 was extremely extended possibility of Primary wave 4 being an running flat is low meaning any forth coming bounce will not give us new high. Time wise :As per Neo wave rule 1) Primary wave 4 can continue till December 2022 hence entering at current levels is not advisable. Price wise :Support areas for Primary wave 4 to end. 1)We have 50 % retracement of Primary wave 3 coming at 641 along with minor wave 4 low's at 655 along with 200 ema average @ 620 which would keep increasing,there by making price action support zone of 640-660. 2)61.8% retracement of Primary wave 3 @ 530 and previous All Time High coming at 555 level(Confluence for price support) along with running intermediate trendline(white) making price action support Zone of 530-555. 3)Theoratically Primary wave 4 end's near Intermediate wave 4 of extended Primary wave 3 which is coming at 360 levels,we also have 80% retracement of Primary wave 3 coming at 360 level(Confluence for price support). JM Hurst Cycle theory: It states that stock prices follows definite cycle and achieve significant lows or trough's at the end(beginning) of each cycle.During any cycle price makes meaning low's around every cycle period time zone.Post a cycle low zone, prices reverses or trend changes,and if the low's made during cycle period time zone get's broken in the next cycle then during that entire cycle prices tend to correct.After his years of observation JM Hurst has found Nominal Cycle model which describes standard cycle's found in the markets he researched.One of the cycle he mentioned in Nominal model is of 20 weeks(which is being followed over here).There are many principles of cycle theory which i am not describing over here as it would complicate things. Time Cycle: 22 week Since beginning GNA AXLES seems to be following 22 weeks cycle meaning after every 22 weeks meaning full low is formed,post which we have seen prices going up and it this low is broken in the next cycle then during that entire cycle prices has corrected.Over here i have somewhere i have taken 23 weeks and somewhere 24 weeks just to capture exact low's however it can be seen that most of the time prices has formed low on 22nd week indicating stock is following 22 week cycle.As of now we are nearing cycle low time zone(week ending on 6th December)meaning after first or second week of December we can see minor bounce in the prices as per time cycle. Combining Volumes: Volumes were rising during this entire rise from covid low's during every impuslive wave high formation ie from Intermediate 1 of Primary 3 till Minor 3 of Intermediate 5 of Primary 3,and we can clearly see volume divergence on minor 5 high as it was achieved on an significantly low volume compare to minor 3 high. Conclusion: Price and time are not in favour of bulls hence investor or trader should keep stop-loss on there existing long positions depending upon there risk appetite and fresh long's should be avoided until Primary wave 4 is done.Any bounce from current price should be used to exit long positions. Disclaimer:The analysis done in this post is just for education purpose and to introduce concept of time cycle,no position should be build or exited solely on it's basis.
NSE:GNAEducation
by UNDERDOG-29
1
impulse wave count logic of NEO waveReason for starting wave count from the point shown here is,in the past price movement(from covid low's) no prior swing high is retraced faster then the fall from that high took to form. Rules and Reason for impulse count 1)wave 2 should take more time then wave 1 to form,here this rule is followed 2)0-2 trend line should not be touched by wave 1 price movement,here this rule is followed 3)wave 3 should not be shortest,here this rule is followed 4)One of the 1,3 or 5 should be extended,here wave 3 has extended by atleast 161.8% of wave 1 in both the degree's,here this rule is followed 5)wave 4 should not enter wave 2 price zone,here this rule is followed in intermediate counts. 6)wave 4 should take more time then wave 2,here this rule is followed in intermediate count. 7)Atleast one alteration should be there between wave 2 and wave 4,here this rule is followed as Alteration is seen between primary 2 and 4 in terms of pattern, price and time. 8)0-2 channel should not have more then 4 touch-point,here this rule is followed after which it was breached. seems like sail has completed primary impulse wave 3 whose intermediate 5 was truncated and currently forming an complex correction(wxy) or a triangle pattern which was triggered after 2 stage confirmation on the breach 0-2 trend-line and intermediate wave 4 lows in lesser time then intermediate 5 took to form.As of now it seems like wave w or wave A in the form of regular flat has been done and currently wave x or wave B is in the making.On the downside wave 4 retraces generally 38.2 % wave 3 which is coming @ 115 which was achieved by price in current fall,but since then bounce has not been sharp or impulsive in nature indicating wave x or wave B is in making.As per the rule wave 4 is longer then wave 3 and primary wave 3 took 88 candles to complete hence going by that logic current fall or side ways movement can atleast continue till 20th december post which 31 days cycle low is expected @ 29th december. On the downside support is coming at following levels Primary wave 3 38.22% retracement @ 115.40 Primary wave 3 50.00% retracement @ 106.20 Primary wave 3 61.80% retracement @ 97.00 Invalidation of this count is @ 81 level where if price goes then wave 4 will be entering wave 2 territory. Upside seems limited as of now but accumulation can be done if price comes @ above mentioned levels for investment purpose as on the basis of this count,as wave 5 is yet to unfold and in commodities wave 5 is assumed to be longest of 1,3,5. will it make a wxy or a triangle only time will tell but short term trader should not look for bigger up side move looking at the current price structure until december 20th,2021. This labelling is done by following NEO wave rules,in the past i have posted wave counts on sail through elliot wave rules.Rules of impulse labelling are different in both theories and hence the counts are also different.Neo wave also in-corporates time element in labelling waves which helps in timing entries and exits. Here i have also incorporated time cycle.In the shown chart 31-day cycle is working quite well since covid low's(I cant show entire chart from covid low's as it wud very untidy) which help's in identifying important low points,meaning around cycle end day's important low is supposed to be formed. Let me know if you find this post informative and if i have missed any rules while labelling.
NSE:SAILEducation
by UNDERDOG-29
8
MARKEY CYCLES PSYCHOLOGY | EMOTIONS & COGNITIVE BIASES All markets go through cycles of expansion and contraction. 📈When a market is in an expansion phase (an uptrend), there is a sentiment of optimism, belief, and greed. Typically, these are the main emotions that lead to a strong buying activity. Sometimes, a strong sense of greed and belief overtakes the market in such a way that a financial bubble can form. In such a scenario, many investors become irrational, losing sight of the actual value and buying an asset only because they believe the market will continue to rise. They get greedy and irrational by the impressive bullish movement, expecting to make huge profits. As the market gets heavily overbought, the local top is created. In general, this is considered to be the point of the highest risk. In some cases, the market will start a sideways movement while smart money steadily sells the asset. This is also called the distribution stage. However, some markets don't present a clear distribution stage, and the downtrend starts sharply after the top is reached. ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 📉 When the market starts reversing, the euphoric mood can quickly turn into complacency, as many traders refuse to admit that the uptrend came to an end. As prices continue to fall, the market sentiment quickly moves to the bearish side. It often includes feelings of anxiety, denial, and panic. In this context, by the anxiety we mean the moment when bullish biased market participants start to question why the price is falling, which soon leads to the denial stage. The denial period is marked by a sense of unacceptance. Many investors keep holding their losing positions, either because "it's too late to sell" or because they want still believe that "the market will come back soon." But as the prices drop even lower, the selling wave gets stronger. At this point, fear and panic often lead to what is called a market capitulation (when holders give up and sell their assets close to the local bottom). Eventually, the downtrend stops as the volatility decreases and the market stabilizes. Typically, the market experiences sideways movements before feelings of hope and optimism start arising again. Such a sideways period is called the accumulation stage. ❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️ ⬇️Subscribe to my social networks!⬇️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
2
How to categorize trends?In times like these when markets are moving down so much from the high point, it is important to understand this chart. In a Bull market, the market consistently makes higher highs and higher lows. When the market starts moving lower, people start fearing an incoming bear market or a crash. But it is important to note that, if the market is down <10% from all time high, it is not enough to be considered a correction. A correction is when the market is trading between 10% and 20% lower from the all time high. Currently Nifty 50 is only down 7.5% from the high point. Hence, it cannot really be termed as a correction yet either. A bear market is defined when the prices are trading more than 20% from the all time high. This point is very very far away for Nifty and it would have to go down below 12,350 for it to be considered a bear market. In my opinion, if one is a long term investor, all dips on the market are good opportunities to start buying more shares. It is not possible for any one predict and buy right at the bottom of the dip. Hence, I consider the current market situation to as a time to accumulate small quantities of stocks which you can keep adding to if the market dips further.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by ArcherDAVIS
Market cycle? Has the major correction started?!Details on the chart, it's very interesting. Draw a triangle for the previous bull rally, copy & paste it on the current bull rally. It fits perfectly. The previous bull rally from Feb 2014 to March 2015 took 393 days and NIFTY went up by 3185 points. The recent bull rally from Dec 2016 to Jan 2018 took 399 days and NIFTY went up by 3277 points. The correction after the previous bull rally took 362 days and NIFTY went down by 2293 points. So based on the same logic, if the major correction has started, we should see NIFTY tat 9000 levels by Dec 2018?! Just for study purpose!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by nileshgr