Relation between Gann Angle, Gann Price and Time “ if you stick strictly to the rule, and always watch when price is squared by time, or when time and price come together, you will be able to forecast the important changes in trend with greater accuracy”. - Gann
I was preparing a presentation in Gann Square of 9 and while looking into the details of Gann Angles, I had a severe headache.
Gann's cryptic approach to sharing his methods created a sense of exclusivity and mystique, attracting a cult following of traders who sought to unravel the secrets behind his success. This allure stemmed from the belief that Gann possessed unique insights into the markets that were inaccessible to the average trader.
Then I re-read the line, examining it thoroughly, just as I used to do when solving the challenging problems of Irodov. The concept is straightforward, so I am creating a chart to guide fellow explorers on this journey.
Beyond Technical Analysis
#Intraday trading strategy #BB Band A Bollinger Band is a technical analysis tool defined by a set of trendlines plotted two standard deviations (positively and negatively) away from a simple moving average (SMA) of a security's price, but which can be adjusted to user preferences. Bollinger Bands are a highly popular technique. Many traders believe the closer the prices move to the upper band, the more overbought the market, and the closer the prices move to the lower band, the more oversold the market.
Key takes
Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool developed by John Bollinger for generating oversold or overbought signals
There are three lines that compose Bollinger Bands: A simple moving average (middle band) and an upper and lower band.
The upper and lower bands are typically 2 standard deviations +/- from a 20-day simple moving average (which is the centre line), but they can be modified.
When the price continually touches the upper Bollinger Band, it can indicate an overbought signal while continually touching the lower band indicates an oversold signal
TRADING RULES YOU NEED TO LIVE BY1.Wait, wait & wait only for best setups or High probability trades.
2.Only take risk on high probablity trade.
3.Risk 1% of your capital in any given trade but also know when to break the rules.
4.Cut-losses short, let winnings trade run.
5.Set alerts and do not watch screen continuously.
6.Take limited trades in a day.
7.After hitting SL do not take random trades(learn to take small losses to protect your past days profit/or getting out of emotional control)
8.Trade the setups and follow the trend.( taking trades with the market trends increases the winning probablity by 25%)
9.Study & do your own chart analysis.
10.Be prepared in mind what & how you will perform after market openings of after getting a loss.
11.Take care of your Body & mind and also follow healthy diet routine.
Thanks
Amit Sharma
4 STEPS FOR A BETTER TRADERHello Guys according to mine experience and knowledge Some things I think are necessary to become a Better trader, so I am sharing all of them with you.
⚡⚡TRADING TOOLS-: (Contains Indicators & Other Soft tools like Screeners Or other software)
So as we all know that a after a good Physical Setup (internet connection, Computers or other gadgets) we also need some other tools like indicators or screeners and alerts in our system for better trading and quick executions. So these all things should be Good and make sure that the indicators which you are using are Backtested properly by paper trading or by virtual trading.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
-:Technical traders and chartists have a wide variety of indicators, patterns, and oscillators in their toolkit to generate signals.
-:Some of these consider price history, others look at trading volume, and yet others are momentum indicators. Often, these are used in tandem or combination with one another.
⚡⚡TRADING SYSTEM-:
A trading system is a set of rules that can be based on technical indicators, chart or candlestick pattern where a system tells the trader when and how to trade, likewise a long term trader or investors taking trades or doing investments on fundamentals basis and so it is known for sure that the more familiar a trader is with their trading system, the better their odds at being consistently profitable so always try to learn more than trade for getting a good trading system.
⚡⚡RISK MANGEMENT-:
Risk management includes the Stop loss, portion size of trade and capital allocation in trades from which you can define how much risk you can take in any of trade or investments which are pre-defined according to you trading system and the basis of identified stop losses for entry or exits which helps cut down losses. It can also help protect traders accounts from losing all of its capital.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
-:Trading can be exciting and even profitable if you are able to stay focused, do due diligence, and keep emotions at bay.
-:Still, the best traders need to incorporate risk management practices to prevent losses from getting out of control.
-:Having a strategic and objective approach to cutting losses through stop orders, profit taking, and protective puts is a smart way to stay in the game.
⚡⚡MINDSET-: (LAST BUT NOT THE LEAST, MOST IMPORTANT)
The correct mindset in trading is one that is dedicated, focused, disciplined, confident, has no ego, has no fear of losing, and has detachment to money. For those not into trading, this might sound a little weird. Most traders focus on developing strategies in order to make money.
If you have developed profitable trading edges and trading strategies, it’s time to move on to the next level, which is developing a good mindset for trading. The correct mindset in trading makes you follow your trading edges and strategies!
When you get experience in day trading or other time frames in trading you’ll discover that trading is certainly not as easy as it seems. Quite the opposite. If you can’t follow the rules of the strategies, you simply have no trading strategy. Trading discipline is what most traders need. The correct mindset in trading is what separates good and bad traders!
SOME ADVICES-:
A trader needs to be dedicated.
A trader must know himself/herself.
A trader stays focused all the time.
Disciplined Trading always avoid compulsory or impulsive trading.
Always separates confidence and overconfidence like a good Trader.
𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐬-: 𝐀𝐦𝐢𝐭 𝐑𝐚𝐣𝐚𝐧
Price/Earnings: amazing interpretation #2In my previous post , we started to analyze the most popular financial ratio in the world – Price / Earnings or P/E (particularly one of the options for interpreting it). I said that P/E can be defined as the amount of money that must be paid once in order to receive 1 monetary unit of diluted net income per year. For American companies, it will be in US dollars, for Indian companies it will be in rupees, etc.
In this post, I would like to analyze another interpretation of this financial ratio, which will allow you to look at P/E differently. To do this, let's look at the formula for calculating P/E again:
P/E = Capitalization / Diluted earnings
Now let's add some refinements to the formula:
P/E = Current capitalization / Diluted earnings for the last year (*)
(*) In my case, by year I mean the last 12 months.
Next, let's see what the Current capitalization and Diluted earnings for the last year are expressed in, for example, in an American company:
- Current capitalization is in $;
- Diluted earnings for the last year are in $/year.
As a result, we can write the following formula:
P/E = Current capitalization / Diluted earnings for the last year = $ / $ / year = N years (*)
(*) According to the basic rules of math, $ will be reduced by $, and we will be left with only the number of years.
It's very unusual, isn't it? It turns out that P/E can also be the number of years!
Yes, indeed, we can say that P/E is the number of years that a shareholder (investor) will need to wait in order to recoup their investments at the current price from the earnings flow, provided that the level of profit does not change .
Of course, the condition of an unchangeable level of profit is very unrealistic. It is rare to find a company that shows the same profit from year to year. Nevertheless, we have nothing more real than the current capitalization of the company and its latest profit. Everything else is just predictions and probable estimates.
It is also important to understand that during the purchase of shares, the investor fixates one of the P/E components - the price (P). Therefore, they only need to keep an eye on the earnings (E) and calculate their own P/E without paying attention to the current capitalization.
If the level of earnings increases since the purchase of shares, the investor's personal P/E will decrease, and, consequently, the number of years to wait for recoupment.
Another thing is when the earnings level, on the contrary, decreases – then an investor will face an increase in their P/E level and, consequently, an increase in the payback period of their own investments. In this case, of course, you have to think about the prospects of such an investment.
You can also argue that not all 100% of earnings are spent paying dividends, and therefore you can’t use the level of earnings to calculate the payback period of an investment. Yes, indeed: it is rare for a company to give all of its earnings to dividends. However, the lack of a proper dividend level is not a reason to change anything in the formula or this interpretation at all, because retained earnings are the main fundamental driver of a company's capitalization growth. And whatever the investor misses out on in terms of dividends, they can get it in the form of an increase in the value of the shares they bought.
Now, let's discuss how to interpret the obtained P/E value. Intuitively, the lower it is, the better. For example, if an investor bought shares at P/E = 100, it means that they will have to wait 100 years for their investment to pay off. That seems like a risky investment, doesn't it? Of course, one can hope for future earnings growth and, consequently, for a decrease in their personal P/E value. But what if it doesn’t happen?
Let me give you an example. For instance, you have bought a country house, and so now you have to get to work via country roads. You have an inexpensive off-road vehicle to do this task. It does its job well and takes you to work via a road that has nothing but potholes. Thus, you get the necessary positive effect this inexpensive thing provides. However, later you learn that they will build a high-speed highway in place of the rural road. And that is exactly what you have dreamed of! After hearing the news, you buy a Ferrari. Now, you will be able to get to work in 5 minutes instead of 30 minutes (and in such a nice car!) However, you have to leave your new sports car in the yard to wait until the road is built. A month later, the news came out that, due to the structure of the road, the highway would be built in a completely different location. A year later your off-road vehicle breaks down. Oh well, now you have to get into your Ferrari and swerve around the potholes. It is not hard to guess what is going to happen to your expensive car after a while. This way, your high expectations for the future road project turned out to be a disaster for your investment in the expensive car.
It works the same way with stock investments. If you only consider the company's future earnings forecast, you run the risk of being left alone with just the forecast instead of the earnings. Thus, P/E can serve as a measure of your risk. The higher the P/E value at the time you buy a stock, the more risk you take. But what is the acceptable level of P/E ?
Oddly enough, I think the answer to this question depends on your age. When you are just beginning your journey, life gives you an absolutely priceless resource, known as time. You can try, take risks, make mistakes, and then try again. That's what children do as they explore the world around them. Or when young people try out different jobs to find exactly what they like. You can use your time in the stock market in the same manner - by looking at companies with a P/E that suits your age.
The younger you are, the higher P/E level you can afford when selecting companies. Conversely, in my opinion, the older you are, the lower P/E level you can afford. To put it simply, you just don’t have as much time to wait for a return on your investment.
So, my point is, the stock market perception of a 20-year-old investor should differ from the perception of a 50-year-old investor. If the former can afford to invest with a high payback period, it may be too risky for the latter.
Now let's try to translate this reasoning into a specific algorithm.
First, let's see how many companies we are able to find in different P/E ranges. As an example, let's take the companies that are traded on the NYSE (April 2023).
As you can see from the table, the larger the P/E range, the more companies we can consider. The investor's task comes down to figuring out what P/E range is relevant to them in their current age. To do this, we need data on life expectancy in different countries. As an example, let's take the World Bank Group's 2020 data for several countries: Japan, India, China, Russia, Germany, Spain, the United States, and Brazil.
To understand which range of P/E values to choose, you need to subtract your current age from your life expectancy:
Life Expectancy - Your Current Age
I recommend focusing on the country where you expect to live most of your life.
Thus, for a 25-year-old male from the United States, the difference would be:
74,50 - 25 = 49,50
Which corresponds with a P/E range of 0 to 50.
For a 60-year-old woman from Japan, the difference would be:
87,74 - 60 = 27,74
Which corresponds with a P/E range of 0 to 30.
For a 70-year-old man from Russia, the difference would be:
66,49 - 70 = -3,51
In the case of a negative difference, the P/E range of 0 to 10 should be used.
It doesn’t matter which country's stocks you invest in if you expect to live most of your life in Japan, Russia, or the United States. P/E indicates time, and time flows the same for any company and for you.
So, this algorithm will allow you to easily calculate your acceptable range of P/E values. However, I want to caution you against making investment decisions based on this ratio alone. A low P/E value does not guarantee that you are free of risks . For example, sometimes the P/E level can drop significantly due to a decline in P (capitalization) because of extraordinary events, whose impact can only be seen in a future income statement (where we would learn the actual value of E - earnings).
Nevertheless, the P/E value is a good indicator of the payback period of your investment, which answers the question: when should you consider buying a company's stock ? When the P/E value is in an acceptable range of values for you. But the P/E level doesn’t tell you what company to consider and what price to take. I will tell you about this in the next posts. See you soon!
What are Bollinger Bands and How to Use themBollinger Bands are a widely used technical analysis tool traders rely on to gauge market volatility and identify potential entry and exit points. Developed by John Bollinger in the 1980s, they provide a simple yet effective method to analyze price trends and determine potential movements.
In this post, we'll cover the fundamental concepts of Bollinger Bands, including how they work and how you can use them to your advantage . This post will also lay the groundwork for future posts about more advanced topics on Bollinger Bands.
Please remember this is an educational post to help all of our members better understand concepts used in trading or investing. This in no way promotes a particular style of trading!
What are Bollinger Bands?
Bollinger Bands are composed of three lines that are plotted on a price chart. The first line is a simple moving average (also known as the basis line), and the other two lines are standard deviation lines, one located above the SMA and the other below it.
When plotted, the SMA appears at the centre of the chart, flanked by the upper and lower bands. The width of the bands is determined by market volatility; the bands will expand as volatility increases and contract as volatility decreases
Components of Bollinger Bands
Basis line: The basis line is the middle line in the Bollinger Bands and represents the simple moving average (SMA) of the closing prices of an asset over a defined period.
Upper Band: The upper band is calculated by adding a specified number of standard deviations to the SMA. Typically, traders use two standard deviations from the SMA, making it the most common setting used. However, these settings are not universal and vary as per the trading style.
Lower Band: The lower band is calculated by subtracting the same number of standard deviations from the SMA. This results in a channel of three lines, with the upper and lower bands fluctuating around the SMA, reflecting volatility.
Usage:
👉 Overbought and Oversold Conditions
Bollinger Bands can help in the identification of overbought and oversold conditions. Generally, when the price of an asset touches or exceeds the upper band, it may suggest that the asset is overbought, and a pullback or reversal could be on the horizon.
In contrast, when the price touches or falls below the lower band, it may indicate that the asset is oversold and could be due for a bounce or reversal.
However, it's worth noting that in strong trends, the price may remain at the upper or lower band for an extended period. This occurrence is not a signal for a pullback or reversal, and traders should consider other factors to confirm the actual trend.
Exhibit: Strong Uptrend
Exhibit: Strong Downtrend
👉 Volatility Indicator
Bollinger Bands serve as a measure of volatility. As the bands widen, it indicates that the volatility is increasing, which means that price swings are likely to be more significant. Conversely, when the bands become narrower, it suggests that the volatility is decreasing, which could result in smaller price fluctuations.
👉 Bollinger Band Squeeze
A squeeze occurs when the bands contract and move closer together, indicating decreased market volatility. This phenomenon is often a precursor to a significant price movement or breakout, as periods of low volatility often precede periods of high volatility in the market.
👉 Trend Confirmation
Bollinger Bands can also be used to confirm the direction of a trend. During an uptrend, prices often stay within the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, while in a downtrend, prices tend to remain in the lower half of the bands.
In addition, when prices repeatedly bounce off the basis line or keep getting rejected from it, it could indicate the continuation of a trend.
Exhibit: Trend continuation in a Bullish trend
Exhibit: Trend continuation in a Bearish trend
Thanks for reading! Hope this was helpful.
As we mentioned before, this isn't trading advice, but rather information about a tool that many traders use.
See you all next week. 🙂
– Team TradingView
Be sure to follow us on Twitter , Instagram , and Telegram for more valuable content! 💘
Understanding Modern Portfolio Theory1. Introduction
Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is a framework for constructing portfolios that aim to maximize expected returns while minimizing risk. It was introduced by Harry Markowitz in 1952. The theory is based on the idea that investors should not focus solely on individual securities but rather on the overall portfolio of investments. MPT provides a way to measure portfolio risk and return and provides tools to optimize investments.
Large time frame analysis significanceWho should use this?
Larger time frames are used by swing traders and long-term investors who are interested in the overall trend and direction of the market.
Advantages?
Broader Perspective: They help traders and investors to see the overall trend and direction of the market over a longer period, which can be useful for identifying larger price patterns and longer trend
Reduced Noise: This can help traders to filter out market volatility and noise that may be present in shorter timeframes, and focus on more significant price movements and trends that are relevant to their trading or investment strategy.
Higher Reliability: Longer timeframe candlesticks represent a larger sample of price data and are less prone to false signals or market noise. This can result in more reliable and accurate technical analysis, which can be beneficial for making informed trading decisions.
Less Frequent Trading: A more relaxed trading approach or having limited time for actively monitoring the markets.
Note: it's important to carefully consider your trading or investment strategy, goals, and risk tolerance when choosing a timeframe to use in your analysis.
It should suit your personality and characteristics.
You should keep a track of global indices and fundamentals before estimating the next move.
Guide to Portfolio Rebalancing for Mutual Fund Investments1. Introduction
Portfolio rebalancing is an essential process for optimizing mutual fund investments that investors should notice more. It involves periodically reviewing and adjusting the allocation of assets in a portfolio to maintain a consistent level of risk and return. This article will delve into the technical details of portfolio rebalancing, highlighting its importance, benefits, and best practices.
Taxation of Mutual Funds A Complete Guide for Investors in India1. Introduction
Mutual funds have become increasingly popular among retail investors as one of India’s most popular investment options due to their convenience and diversification benefits. However, many investors need to consider the tax implications of their mutual fund investments, which can significantly impact their overall returns. This article aims to provide a technical overview of the tax implications of mutual funds in India, including how to calculate capital gains tax and dividend distribution tax, file taxes on mutual fund investments, and adjust mutual fund investments based on tax implications.
Basics of Option's Delta: With ExamplesOption's DELTA represents the change in price of an option with respect to change in price of an underlying.
Let's understand briefly with the help of Nifty example.
1️⃣
In the above Nifty example,
17750 is an At the Money CE option.
Delta of ATM CE is near 0.5
Which means that if spot moves 10 points, 17750 CE will move 5 points.
Normally ATM options are highly volatile options.
2️⃣
17700 is slightly In the Money CE.
Delta is 0.7, means if spot moves up 10 points, the CE option will move up by 7 points.
Volatility is fairly high in this one too but less compared to 17750.
⚡If you open the chart of the above options, you will see spikes with lot of wicks above and below the candles (if market stays around these levels). Also, there will be a lot of breakout/breakdown failures over the swing highs and lows in the intraday. This is due to highly volatile nature of ATM options.
3️⃣
17650 and 17600 are deeper In the Money CE options.
You can see that the delta is around 0.9
It means that if index moves 10 points, these CE option will move 8-9 points also.
These options are less volatile compared to ATM options.
⚡The deeper the CE option, the higher would be the delta, but the value of Delta never exceeds 1.
You should note that deep ITM options just behave like the underlying Futures. Means a 1-point movement in the underlying equals 1 point move in the option.
So, if you don't want to trade futures for some reason, you can trade with deep ITM options.
⚡⚡Remember that Delta varies as the market moves.
Ex if market moves down by 100 points, in this example, then Delta of 17650 CE will become 0.5 as it will be ATM at that point.
This behavior along with higher Theta of ATM needs more attention.
⚡Needless to mention, the Delta of Out of the Money CE options remains less than 0.5 and it keeps on decreasing as we move deeper into OTM CE options.
Ex Delta of 17900 CE is 0.05 while publishing this post on the expiry day. This is the reason that an OTM CE will have bare minimum movement with respect to movement in the underlying.
Disclaimer: I don't call myself an option expert and I am not much into complex option strategies. But this is the least that one should know as an option trader.
Do like for more informative posts in the future.
Regards
Comprehensive Guide to Mutual Fund Risk Management in India1. Introduction
Mutual funds have become increasingly popular among investors in India, with more and more individuals opting for this investment option to diversify their portfolios and achieve their financial goals. However, with every investment comes a certain level of risk. This is where risk management comes into play.
Risk management in mutual fund investing refers to identifying, analyzing, and mitigating the various risks associated with mutual fund investments. The goal is to minimize the impact of these risks on the investment portfolio and maximize returns.
Ultimate Guide to Investing in Mutual Funds SIPs in IndiaIntroduction
Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) have recently gained immense popularity among Indian investors. SIP is a mode of investment that allows individuals to invest in mutual funds in a systematic and disciplined manner. This investment strategy helps investors accumulate wealth over the long term by investing small amounts at regular intervals.
A Comprehensive Guide to Investing in Debt Mutual Funds in India1. Introduction
In recent years, the Indian economy has grown steadily, and investors are constantly looking for opportunities to grow their wealth. One such investment option that has gained popularity is Debt Mutual Funds. Debt Mutual Funds are a type of investment that invests in fixed-income instruments such as government securities, corporate bonds, and money market instruments. These funds are managed by professional fund managers who aim to generate stable returns for investors.
Emotions should not affect our trade management systemTrader should identify emotions that are affecting our trading management decisions, and find genuine solution to over come from the same to become a better trader.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Disclaimer.
I am not sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Some tips for beginners to get started in stock marketHere are some tips for beginners to get started in the stock market and for those looking to become pro traders---------
Start with the basics: Before diving into the stock market, make sure you have a solid understanding of the fundamentals of investing, such as how the stock market works, how to read financial statements, and the different types of investment vehicles available.
Set realistic goals: Determine your investment goals and risk tolerance to create a portfolio that suits your needs. Keep in mind that investing is a long-term strategy, and it's essential to have patience and discipline.
Do your research: Conduct thorough research on the companies or sectors you plan to invest in. Look for companies with strong financials, a competitive advantage, and a clear growth strategy.
Diversify your portfolio: Diversification is key to managing risk in the stock market. Invest in a mix of stocks, bonds, and other assets to spread your risk across different sectors and industries.
Keep an eye on the market: Stay up-to-date with the latest news and trends in the stock market. Monitor your investments regularly and be prepared to make adjustments if necessary.
Learn from your mistakes: Investing involves risk, and it's normal to make mistakes. Use your losses as an opportunity to learn and refine your strategy.
Consider professional help: If you're new to investing or don't have the time or expertise to manage your portfolio, consider working with a financial advisor or a robo-advisor to help you make informed investment decisions.
Keep emotions in check: It's easy to get caught up in the emotions of the market, but it's essential to maintain a level head and stick to your investment strategy.
Have patience: Successful investing takes time and patience. Avoid chasing quick gains and focus on long-term growth.
By following these tips, beginners can start building a solid foundation for investing in the stock market, while more experienced traders can refine their strategies and continue to grow their portfolios.
How To Follow Market News Like a ProAs a member of TradingView, you have access to more than 100 news providers. Our excellent news providers cover every asset class. Learning how to manage market news is an important informational edge that takes time and practice - always know the latest stories about your favourite symbols and be in the know about what traders are talking about.
In this post, we want to share a few tips for managing your news flow. 🗞️🎯
Before we get started, let us remind everyone how we recently enhanced our news by giving our members access to one of the world's preeminent news organizations - Dow Jones Newswire including the Wall Street Journal, Marketwatch, Barron's, Dow Jones Commodity Trader, and more.
Where To Find News On TradingView 📰
To get started with news, first make sure you're logged into your account. Once you're logged in, there are several ways to access news. Let's take a look at each method.
- Symbol pages have dedicated news sections that cover that symbol in great detail. For example, here's every important story about Apple and here's the latest breaking news about Tesla . Go to any symbol page of your choice, click News, and start reading.
- Check out our global news flow page that brings all of our sources to one place. Once you've arrived, filter by the asset class of your choice.
- Our corporate news page brings insider buying & selling, company press releases, and official financial filings all to one page. As an equity trader or investor, this page will keep you updated about key events happening in the corporate world.
How To Find News On The Chart 📈
News can also be accessed directly from the chart. As everyone knows, breaking news can impact markets in a variety of ways. Open the chart and watch price, volume, and news all at once. This is an effective combination of tools that combines the biggest headlines with real trading activity. Here's how to get started:
- Open your watchlist, select a symbol, and then look for the latest news headline as demonstrated in the image below. Click the headline to open a dedicated news feed for that symbol. And just like that you'll have markets news and the chart open at once:
- Another way to add news to your chart is to open the Settings menu, click Events, and then check the box that says "Latest news." This box will display the latest market news directly on the chart you have open. Follow the instructions shown on the image below to get started.
Go Deeper With Specific News For Your Needs 🌐
Depending on your style of trading or desired asset class, there are additional news resources for you to harness. Check out the list below for more pages where market news can be found:
- Bond market news
- Futures market news
- Global market news
Read News From Anywhere With Our App 📱
The official TradingView mobile app for iOS and Android is free to download and market news is available to all members. Once downloaded, you can follow global market news or news about your favourite symbols. The app allows you to sort by top stories, asset class, and the world economy.
If you still don't have our app, get it here !
Thanks for reading!
We hope this post helps you become a market master for following the latest news. Please let us know if you have any questions or comments.
— Team TradingView ❤️
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Price / Earnings: Interpretation #1In one of my first posts , I talked about the main idea of my investment strategy: buy great “things” during the sales season . This rule can be applied to any object of the material world: real estate, cars, clothes, food and, of course, shares of public companies.
However, a seemingly simple idea requires the ability to understand both the quality of “things” and their value. Suppose we have solved the issue with quality (*).
(*) A very bold assumption, I realize that. However, the following posts will cover this topic in more detail. Be a little patient.
So, we know the signs of a high-quality thing and are able to define it skilfully enough. But what about its cost?
"Easy-peasy!" you will say, "For example, I know that the Mercedes-Benz plant produces high-quality cars, so I should just find out the prices for a certain model in different car dealerships and choose the cheapest one."
"Great plan!" I will say. But what about shares of public companies? Even if you find a fundamentally strong company, how do you know if it is expensive or cheap?
Let's imagine that the company is also a machine. A machine that makes profit. It needs to be fed with resources, things are happening in there, some cogs are turning, and as a result we get earnings. This is its main goal and purpose.
Each machine has its own name, such as Apple or McDonald's. It has its own resources and mechanisms, but it produces one product – earnings.
Now let’s suppose that the capitalization of the company is the value of such a machine. Let's see how much Apple and McDonald's cost today:
Apple - $2.538 trillion
McDonald's - $202.552 billion
We see that Apple is more than 10 times more expensive than McDonald's. But is it really so from an investor's point of view?
The paradox is that we can't say for sure that Apple is 10 times more expensive than McDonald's until we divide each company's value by its earnings. Why exactly? Let's count and it will become clear:
Apple's diluted net income - $99.803 a year
McDonald's diluted net income - $6.177 billion a year
Now read this phrase slowly, and if necessary, several times: “The value is what we pay now. Earnings are what we get all the time” .
To understand how many dollars we need to pay now for the production of 1 dollar of profit a year, we need to divide the value of the company (its capitalization) by its annual profit. We get:
Apple - $25.43
McDonald’s - $32.79
It turns out that in order to get $1 profit a year, for Apple we need to pay $25.43, and for McDonald's - $32.79. Wow!
Currently, I believe that Apple appears cheaper than McDonald's.
To remember this information better, imagine two machines that produce one-dollar bills at the same rate (once a year). In the case of an Apple machine, you pay $25.43 to issue this bill, and in the case of a McDonald’s machine, you pay $32.70. Which one will you choose?
So, if we remove the $ symbol from these numbers, we get the world's most famous financial ratio Price/Earnings or P/E . It shows how much we, as investors, need to pay for the production of 1 unit of annual profit. And pay only once.
There are two formulas for calculating this financial ratio:
1. P/E = Price of 1 share / Diluted EPS
2. P/E = Capitalization / Diluted Net Income
Whatever formula you use, the result will be the same. By the way, I mainly use the Diluted Net Income instead of the regular one in my calculations. So do not be confused if you see a formula with a Net Income – you can calculate it this way as well.
So, in the current publication, I have analyzed one of the interpretations of this financial ratio. But, in fact, there is another interpretation that I really like. It will help you realize which P/E level to choose for yourself. But more on that in the next post. See you!
The Importance of Risk Management in TradingTrading in financial markets can be a lucrative venture, but it also carries a significant amount of risk. The markets are inherently volatile, and unexpected events can have a significant impact on your investment portfolio. That's why risk management is a crucial aspect of successful trading. In this article, we'll discuss the importance of risk management in trading and how it can help you achieve your financial goals.
What is Risk Management?
Risk management is the process of identifying, assessing, and controlling risks that could negatively impact your investments. It involves taking steps to reduce the potential loss of capital while maximizing potential profits. Risk management is a fundamental part of any trading strategy, and it is essential to understand how to manage risk effectively to achieve success in trading.
The Importance of Risk Management in Trading
1. Protecting Capital:
The primary goal of risk management in trading is to protect your capital. By implementing risk management strategies, you can reduce the potential loss of capital in the event of unexpected market movements. This can help you avoid devastating losses that could wipe out your investment portfolio and negatively impact your financial well-being.
2. Minimizing Emotional Decisions:
Trading can be an emotional experience, and emotions can cloud your judgment, leading to irrational decisions. By implementing risk management strategies, you can minimize the impact of emotions on your trading decisions. You'll have a clear plan for managing risk, which can help you make informed decisions based on logic and reason rather than emotions.
3. Maximizing Profits:
Risk management isn't just about minimizing losses; it's also about maximizing profits. By taking calculated risks and implementing effective risk management strategies, you can increase your potential profits. With a solid risk management plan in place, you'll have the confidence to make trades that have the potential to generate substantial profits.
4. Ensuring Long-Term Success:
Successful trading isn't just about making money in the short term; it's also about ensuring long-term success. By implementing effective risk management strategies, you can protect your capital and make informed trading decisions that will help you achieve your financial goals in the long run.
5. Improve Trading Discipline
Risk management is also essential for improving your trading discipline. By setting clear risk management rules and sticking to them, you can avoid impulsive trades and stick to your trading plan. This helps to build discipline and consistency in your trading, which are essential for long-term success.
5. Reduce Stress:
Finally, effective risk management can reduce stress and anxiety associated with trading. By knowing that you have a plan in place to manage potential risks, you can trade with confidence and peace of mind. This helps to reduce stress and improve your overall well-being.
Effective Risk Management Strategies
Now that we've discussed the importance of risk management in trading let's take a look at some effective risk management strategies.
1. Diversification
Diversification is a fundamental risk management strategy. By spreading your investments across multiple asset classes and markets, you can reduce your exposure to any single market or asset class. This can help protect your portfolio from the impact of unexpected market movements.
2. Stop Loss Orders
Stop-loss orders are another effective risk management strategy. These orders automatically sell a security if it reaches a specific price level. This can help you limit your potential losses in the event of unexpected market movements.
3. Position Sizing
Position sizing is a strategy that involves allocating a specific percentage of your portfolio to each trade. This can help you limit your exposure to any single trade, reducing the potential impact of unexpected market movements.
4. Stick to Your Trading Plan
A trading plan is a set of rules that a trader follows when making trading decisions. It includes entry and exit points, risk management strategies, and a set of rules for managing emotions. By sticking to your trading plan, you can avoid impulsive trades and make objective decisions based on analysis.
Conclusion
Risk management is an essential aspect of successful trading. By implementing effective risk management strategies, you can protect your capital, minimize emotional decisions, maximize profits, and ensure long-term success. Diversification, stop-loss orders, and position sizing are just a few of the many risk management strategies you can use to achieve your trading goals. Remember, successful trading is about managing risk effectively, so make sure to prioritize risk management in your trading strategy.
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Mutual Funds investment mistakes in IndiaIntroduction
Investing in mutual funds has become popular for many Indian investors in recent years. It provides an opportunity to invest in a diversified portfolio of assets managed by experienced professionals, with potentially higher returns than traditional investment options such as fixed deposits or savings accounts. Mutual funds also offer flexibility, liquidity, and tax benefits, making them an attractive option for investors seeking financial stability and growth.