Beyond Technical Analysis
India VIXFor any reversal/rally to sustain, VIX needs to cool down. For now sustaining below 39 would be the 1st confirmation for a pullback to 30 then 25. With Q4 Advance Tax noes coming in from Monday, we would be seeing stock specific reactions going forward unlike the systematic fall we have been witnessing since FEB. So a word of caution, not every Inky Pinky Ponky will give returns, be very selective, from here once again domestic triggers will play a vital role.
Bank NiftyBank Nifty has attempted a bounce today after testing 62% retracement of its move from FEB 2016 low. For it start a meaningful rally it 1st needs a consolidation which could happen between 26000-22500. Failure to hold today's low opens the passage for 19000. A downtrend halts & changes 1st with swings then an uptrend starts, whichever time frame you look at it. If its V shape then be prepared that its a trap. RBI's move yesterday (Dollar Swap) to provide liquidity is a +ve indicator
NiftyAs per ICHIMOKU study - Monthly, Daily, Hourly, 15mins & 5mins all showing 9800 as crucial. So if we are looking for this Monthly Kumo bottom to hold then we need to be prepared for some consolidation between 9800-8500 also. VIX is at extremes, until it starts cooling be prepared for swings as well if these lows are to be held. However, if again dips lower the next support is at 7900. Nifty P/E currently is at 18 (trailing) & 13 (forward) kind of levels we have not seen since 2008.
RBL Bank trading near its Lifetime low - FPI Buy Position
Positive Points:
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- Stock is trading near its lifetime low.
- Also, RSI positive divergence can be seen on the weekly chart.
- A bulk deal done by FPI(erstwhile FII) for 256.48 rs.
Negative Points:
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- India is struggling with TRUST factor with some banks like PMC, YesBank etc. Keeping in mind, banks like RBL Bank, may be affected badly.