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EURUSD rebound needs to stay beyond 1.1385 to convince bullsEURUSD extends the run-up beyond 200-SMA to cross a two-month-old horizontal area surrounding 1.1385 post-US inflation data. Given the price-positive signals from the MACD and RSI, the major currency pair is likely to keep the recent rebound. However, a sustained run-up beyond 1.1385 becomes necessary for the pair buyers to challenge the mid-November peak near 1.1465. Following that, the 1.1500 threshold will offer an intermediate halt during an upward trajectory towards early November’s swing highs around 1.1600. Meanwhile, failure to stay beyond 1.1385 could trigger a pullback move targeting the 200-SMA level near 1.1310. It should be noted, however, that the EURUSD weakness past 1.1300 will be challenged by an upward sloping support line from late November, around 1.1265. Also acting as a downside filter is the year 2021 bottom close to 1.1185. In a case where the major currency pair drops below 1.1185, March 2020 high near 1.1150 and 61.8% FE of November 09-30 moves, around 1.1120, will gain the market’s attention. To sum up, EURUSD crossed a strong hurdle to the north after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data but bulls seek confirmation from 1.1385.
by MTradingGlobal
2
Gold buyers tighten grips ahead of US inflation dataGold keeps the bounce off 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of November-December fall to cross the 100-SMA surrounding $1,805, backed by firmer RSI and higher-low formation. As MACD is also shifting in favor of the bulls, the metal prices are likely heading towards 61.8% Fibo. level near $1,830. However, a two-month-old horizontal resistance and tops marked during the July-September period, around $1,834, will be tough challenges for the gold bulls to cross before convincing markets. Hence, a short-term upward trajectory is brewing ahead of the key data. Meanwhile, a downside break of the weekly support line, around $1,795 at the latest, will trigger a fresh round of gold-selling towards the recent swing low of $1,787. Though, any further weakness will be challenged by multiple supports marked since early November close to $1,760. If at all the gold bears keep reins past $1,760, December’s bottom of $1,751 will act as the last hope for buyers before throwing dice for sellers targeting September’s low surrounding $1,721.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Gold bears bracing for Fed’s verdict inside $25 rangeGold traders prepare for the end of two-week-long choppy moves between 200-DMA and an ascending trend line from early October with eyes on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decision. With the faster tapering and a hint to rate hike in 2022 expected, bears are hopeful. However, Omicron fears are up for throwing a wild card and can fuel the precious metal prices should the Fed sounds cautious. In that case, a clear run-up beyond the 200-DMA level of $1,794 won’t be enough as the $1,800 threshold will act as a validation point to welcome the bulls. Following that, $1,815 and $1,834 should offer buffers before directing the quote to $1,850 and November’s peak of $1,877. Meanwhile, a downside break of the $1,770 support confluence, comprising a 10-week-old rising trend line and 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of August-November upside, will direct bears towards $1,745 and $1,721 support levels. If the gold sellers keep reins past $1,721, the $1,700 threshold and the yearly low surrounding $1,668 will be in focus. Overall, gold prices remain vulnerable to the downside but surprises lurk behind the door, be cautious!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers cheer bear cross, key support break below $1,800Despite bouncing off a four-week low, gold prices are vulnerable to further downside as sustained trading below the two-month-old support line, now resistance, joins the bearish cross-over of the 200-SMA to 50-DMA. That said, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of September-November upside, near $1,755, may restrict short-term declines of the yellow metal ahead of September’s low near $1,721. It’s worth noting that a clear downside break of the $1,721 needs validation from the $1,717 level before challenging the $1,700 threshold. Meanwhile, gold traders are consolidating the previous day’s losses ahead of the key US ISM Manufacturing PMI and ADP Employment Change data, not to forget Fed Chair Powell’s testimony. Should the US catalysts join anxiety over Omicron to weigh on risk catalysts and the US dollar, gold prices can extend the latest corrective pullback towards the previous support line near $1,787. However, a five-week-old horizontal area surrounding $1,810 will be a tough nut to crack for the gold buyers afterward.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MTradingGlobal
1
Gold bears need validation from 200-SMA on Fed dayGold refreshes weekly low, taking offers around $1,778 during early Wednesday. The yellow metal justifies a downside break of 100-SMA, suggesting further weakness towards a three-week-old support line near $1,775. However, 200-SMA acts as additional support around $1,770 to challenge bears before the Fed reveals the tapering surprise. Should the Fed matches or surpasses hawkish market hopes, gold’s downside to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $1,748 can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, the 100-SMA level of $1,785 guards the immediate upside of the commodity, a break of which will direct buyers to the weekly peak near $1,796. In a case where the gold bulls keep reins past $1,796, the $1,800 threshold and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level close to $1,810 will be in focus. Overall, gold sellers are in the driver’s seat before the likely bearish event for the metal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD drops back to key support on RBA’s YCC pauseAUDUSD slumps 60 pips on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) end to the Yield Curve Control (YCC) measures. In doing so, the Aussie pair extends pullback from the 200-DMA, challenging a two-month-old broad horizontal support area between 0.7475 and 0.7450. Given the downward sloping RSI and hawkish hopes from the Fed, the quote may conquer the 0.7450 support to signal further declines targeting the late October’s swing low around 0.7380. In a case where the bearish impulse remains intact below 0.7380, September 24 bottom surrounding 0.7315 will be in the spotlight. On the contrary, September’s peak near 0.7480 guards immediate recovery ahead of the 10-DMA level surrounding the 0.7500 round figure. In a case where AUDUSD bulls keep reins past 0.7500, the 200-DMA and the latest peak close to 0.7555 should gain the market’s attention. Overall, AUDUSD bears need validation from the Fed to extend the RBA-led downside momentum.
by MTradingGlobal
1
Key SMA confluence probes gold buyers below $1,800Gold prints four-day uptrend, tracking monthly support line amid early Friday. However, a convergence of the 100 and 200-DMAs near $1,795 offers a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Should the quote rise past $1,795, the mid-September peak near $1,809 may offer an intermediate halt during the run-up targeting the $1,834 crucial resistance, marked twice in 2021. It’s worth noting that the latest inflation chatters underpin the US Treasury yields and may recall the US dollar bulls should today’s PMIs for October arrive as strong, which in turn could pull the gold prices back from a strong resistance level. On the contrary, a downside break of the stated support line, around $1,778 by the press time, may need validation from $1,770 and June’s low near $1,750 to convince gold sellers. Following that, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of June-August fall, near $1,733, could probe the fall targeting the $1,700 threshold and the yearly bottom surrounding $1,668. Overall, gold remains in the consolidation mode and needs confirmation for further upside.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD rebound fades before Fed Chairman Powell’s speechEURUSD struggles to extend the strongest recovery in a month as anxiety over Evergrande test pair buyers ahead of a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. With this, the currency major steps back from the weekly resistance line, which in turn suggests further weakness towards the 1.1700 threshold. However, the quote’s downside past 1.1700 will not hesitate to refresh the yearly low near 1.1665. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of the immediate trend line hurdle surrounding 1.1745 will direct the quote towards a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.1760. Even if the EURUSD bulls manage to cross 1.1760, 200-SMA and a descending resistance line from September 03, respectively near 1.1775 and 1.1785, will precede the September 17 peak of 1.1788 to challenge the pair’s further advances. Overall, EURUSD remains pressured but traders await key catalysts for fresh impulse.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
Gold heads to $1,790 key hurdle with eyes on Fed taperingRisk-on mood helps gold extend the early-week rebound towards the key upside resistance area during early Wednesday. In addition to the confluence of 200-EMA, a descending trend line from September 03 and a five-week-old support line, fears of the Fed’s tapering also challenge gold buyers. Should the Fed refrains from providing any signals to the 2021 taper, versus the widely expected move, gold prices may overcome the stated resistance near $1,790 and rush towards the $1,834 double top. During the run-up, the $1,800 threshold and multiple stops marked during late August around $1,817-18 may test the bulls. Meanwhile, pullback moves may aim for 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of August 09 to early September upside, respectively near $1,755 and $1,737. Following that, the August 10 low near $1,710 and the $1,700 round figure could flash on the bears’ radars before the yearly low close to $1,678 gains the market’s attention. Overall, gold approaches tough resistance to justify the strength of recovery moves as markets brace for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting announcement
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MTradingGlobal
Gold jumps back beyond 200-SMA ahead of Fed Chair Powell speechGold justifies the rebound from a two-week-old rising support line to cross the 200-SMA, suggesting further advances towards the key resistance line from July 29, around $1,806. In addition to an important trend line hurdle, today’s Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium also becomes crucial for gold traders. Hence, the bullion players should wait for both the events, the latter is better, for clear direction. Should the bulls take over past $1,806, a monthly high surrounding $1,831 and July’s peak surrounding $1,835 should return to the charts. Meanwhile, 200-SMA and the stated immediate support line restrict the metal’s short-term downside respectively around $1,794 and $1,782. During the quote’s fall past $1,782, the mid-August’s swing low near $1,770 could offer another chance for the bull’s entry. Failures to do so can drag gold prices towards August 10 low near $1,717 before highlighting the $1,700 threshold.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Gold stays pressured below $1900 as traders await ECB, US CPIGold prices remain on the back foot amid anxious hours of early Thursday as markets wait for the ECB and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Although the ECB is less likely to become a major catalyst, the anticipated optimism of the bloc’s policymakers could offer intermediate bounce to gold prices. However, a stronger-than-expected beat of the US inflation data won’t be taken lightly and can drag the yellow metal on release. It should, however, be noted that ascending support line from mid-May and late April, respectively around $1,879 and $1,871, could probe sellers whereas 200-SMA near $1,848 and May 10 top close to $1,845 adds to the downside filters. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of the monthly resistance line, close to $1,900, will aim for the recent high of $1,917. In a case where the gold buyers keep reins past $1,917, October 2020 levels near $1,933 should offer an intermediate halt during the rally targeting the yearly peak of $1,960. To sum up, today is a test for the gold buyers who seemed to have tired of late.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers brace for a bumpy drive on NFP dayThe heaviest fall since late February couldn’t beat gold buyers as the metal stays above the key support line from March 31, near $1,851, on the key US NFP release day. Additionally important are the speeches of US President Joe Biden and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. It should be noted that while MACD and RSI flash contrasting signals, bears will have a bumpy road even if they manage to break the $1,851 support. The reason could be traced to the monthly horizontal line and multiple tops marked from late April, respectively around $1,843 and $1,800 threshold. Meanwhile, a corrective pullback will have to cross the 100-SMA level of $1,878 before targeting the $1,889-90 resistance area. It should, however, be noted that the $1,900 round figure and the latest high near $1,916 will act as extra filters to the north-run targeting the yearly top close to $1,960. Overall, gold’s uptrend is challenged but bulls aren’t out of the woods.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD eases below key hurdle ahead of crucial US testimonyEURUSD fades bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of November-January upside as traders eye Congressional testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Given the sluggish MACD and the recent US dollar demand, the bears are likely to retake the controls should policymakers hesitate in accepting fears of reflation. In that case, the aforementioned key Fibonacci retracement and 200-day SMA, respectively around 1.1885 and 1.1850, will be in the spotlight before the monthly bottom surrounding 1.1835. Meanwhile, a surprising optimism can trigger the quote’s recovery moves targeting a 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1975. Though, any further upside will be tamed by a confluence of 21-day SMA and a three-week-old horizontal area near 1.1990. Also likely to tame the EURUSD bulls is the 1.2000 round-figure and the mid-February lows near 1.2025. Overall, EURUSD looks set for further losses but the key SMA can test the south run.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD extends post-Fed losses, US GDP in focusFed’s dovish halt and ECB policymakers hint favoring further negative rates dragged EURUSD below 50-day SMA for the first time since early November the previous day. The bears are currently eyeing a horizontal area comprising lows marked during December and the present month, around 1.2060-50. However, the preliminary readings of the US Q4 GDP can exert additional downside pressure to break the key support zone and test a 100-day SMA near 1.1950. It should, however, be noted that the November 09 top near 1.1920 can challenge the pair’s further downside. In a case where the US GDP surprise markets with better-than-forecast figures, EURUSD can combat the 50-day SMA level of 1.2120 but a falling trend line from January 06, at 1.2155 now, will challenge the bulls afterward. Also acting as an upside barrier is the last week’s peak near 1.2190 and the 1.2200 round-figure. If at all the quote rises past-1.2200 threshold, it’s the run-up to the monthly peak surrounding 1.2350 can’t be ruled out.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD is still in the long-term uptrend channel.AUDUSD is still in the long-term uptrend channel. The Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) fell from the high of 0.7820 on January 6 to the low of 0.7659 on January 18. It rebounded in the past two trading days and returned to above the 0.7700 integer. From the long-term trend and the FED Chairman Powell's dovish attitude, as well as the 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus plan of the new President Joe Biden, the long-term trend of the US Dollar Index is still downward, so the long-term trend of the AUDUSD is upward. By technical analysis, the AUDUSD is still in the long-term uptrend channel, so it is recommended to Buy operations. As shown in the figure: it can be buy now (entry market price around 0.7740), or price falling to above 0.7650 support. Jan.20.2021 Reliability: 3-10 Market Days.
Long
by FxIntelligenceIN
Trump on Twitter, undervalued euro and important dataTraditionally, financial markets could not relax mainly because of one person. It is all about US President Donald Trump. Yesterday, he said that if the head of Sino, Xi Jinping, does not meet with him at the G-20 summit, the United States will impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods. So, as we warned, you should not relax and calm down. Accordingly, buying gold and Japanese yen, especially at current prices, seems to us one of the best trading ideas today. Well, about Trump, we cannot but pay attention to the next wave of verbal interventions on his part. This time, he said that "The Euro and other currencies are devalued against the dollar, putting the U.S. at a big disadvantage." Not that everyone rushed to buy euros after that, but Trump definitely sowed seeds of doubt. Immediately, a whole series of major analysts burst out with forecasts in favor of euro growth. In particular, Deutsche Bank noted that the euro is undervalued by 7 against the dollar and should cost 1.20. And according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development model, the euro is generally undervalued by 22% (!). Yesterday, unexpectedly, quite good data on the UK labor market appeared. Employment in April rose by 32K (with the forecast +4K), and the average salary showed growth above analysts' expectation 3.1% (with a forecast 3.0%). We have been waiting for much weaker statistics. Nevertheless, we consider the pound growth as an opportunity for its sales. Well, there are no reasons for the pound optimism. Brexit pauses until the new Prime Minister will be chosen this will happen no earlier than July. And it is not a fact that it will be a positive sign for the pound. So, you can re-open trade a little bit later in case of os stop-loss execution. The main event of the day will be the inflation statistics publication from the United States. The output of data below forecasts or below 2% (the Feds target ), would be a pretty strong signal in favor of dollar sales. Recall, in a week the Fed’s decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the United States will be announced and it is very likely that the rate will be lowered this month. Perhaps even by 0.5%. Today's data will have an impact on it. Our trading preferences for today are as follows: we will continue to look for points for the sales of the US dollar against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and sales of GBPUSD.
Long
by Trade24Fx
3
DXY TNX spreadThe USD would ususally move according to the USD strength i.e. DXY. Lately, it hasn't been the case. There could be multiple theories around it..from fundamental to political to technical. I am wondering what gives! One plausible explanation is may be the Fed policy has gone beyond what's needed. But then again, it's pretty much set in stone now! Is it a coincidence that this is happening around G20 and North Korea missile launch? Or may be Fed has something to do with it? But then again..Fed is never really out of the news. They are taking backseat most in last 10 years though. And it's good. So what gives? Is it Trump? He alienated Yellen and now she has made sure that the policy won't change even if she is removed. That fiscal stimulus better be coming soon.
TVC:DXY
by Kaustubh