29 Jan ’24 — A flag like formation on 63mts TF - BankNiftyBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
BankNifty also gets a stance upgrade - from bearish to neutral. The price action was not as beautiful as Nifty50 today. One reason would be the outlier performance by Reliance today +7%, whereas the main weightlifters for BankNifty were HDFCBK 1.38%, Kotak +3.08%, ICICBank 0.64%.
4mts chart
The support/resistance of 45399 was in play today and it proved quite sticky. Although BN got to this level by 09.31 - we never had a strong breakout today. On the 4mts TF it appears we broke the resistance between 09.59 to 11.15 - but it was not strong enough as we fell back to it by 11.19. On a close-to-close basis, BankNifty gained an impressive 576pts ~ 1.28% but the charts do not signify a bullishness yet.
63mts chart
The pattern formed today more or less looks like a flag formation - so the bullishness could come at any moment. BankNifty has a lot of catching up to do, so the run could get quite wild too. If the FII selling in HDFCBK has ended, it could be a good relief to the Bulls. We have changed the stance from bearish to neutral as BN has defended the 44542 support & is just above the 45399 SR. The moment we break these supports, we will go back to bearish mode.
Algo Trading
Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a loss of 608 rupees per lot
RELIANCE
20 Jan ’24 — Probably the first working Saturday for a TraderNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
Recap from yesterday: “The last 3 candles almost gave away the clue that bearishness was ending. We would still like to see how Nifty will open tomorrow. Ideally, it should open above 21698 i.e. within the channel to cement the idea that Bears are thrown out of control.”
4mts chart
Open was right at the trendline and it acted as a resistance. Nifty was unable to breach it and it meant we would have either a flat or negative day. A lot of interesting things happened today.
NiftyIT moved down and ended with -371pts ~ 1.00%. Most of them would not have noticed IT falling.
The banks outperformed today, Kotak +2.41%, AUBANK +2.32%, CANBK +2.22%, PNB +2.74% & ICICI +0.95%. If not for these, Nifty would have had a serious fall today
Nifty’s low today was lower than yesterday’s low and it has closed the gap from 18th Jan.
The OTMs of both Nifty and BankNifty were trading in green and sometimes had unusual spikes often seen during low liquidity. Despite the quick announcement to have a working day today - the actual traded volumes or contracts were not that bad either.
Initially, we thought DII and FII would not participate, but they ended up selling 719 & 545 crores today
63mts chart
Nifty was unable to get into the ascending channel despite results from RELIANCE and major banks. We suspect some weakness is haunting N50. It could completely be news/event-driven or related to the build-up for the budget session. The selling figures from the institutions may be because of this. From a technical analysis perspective, Nifty looks range bound between 21913 and 21491. Falling below 21491 could auto-trigger further shorts and it could even be an avalanche. Our stance remains neutral for Tuesday, also note that Monday will be a holiday for the consecration of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya.
RELIANCE IND INFRA RIIL BREAKOUTReliance Ind Infra {RIIL}
cmp 1100
Buy at cmp or at retest
Any dip upto 1000 is buy
keeping 950 as Weekly Closing Basis Stoploss For--
targets🎯 1150 / 1200 / 1250+++
Above resistance Zone 1070
Attempted trendline breakout
Attempted Cup & Handle pattern too
Fresh Breakout above 1250
Value addition
INVESTMENT PICK
technical trade setup
Regards..
Keshav..
15/10/2023
10 Jan ’24 — 163pts pullback from a wedge - Nifty50 goes neutralNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
Recap from yesterday “Interesting price action formed at the current levels. Seems like where we are right now is a crucial support/resistance zone that could decide the next trend. Our call of bearishness will continue until N50 can break through the channel top line.”
4mts chart link
Even without breaking the upper trend line, we had to change the stance from bearish to neutral today. The ball was in bear’s court today and they did not score. A small falling wedge pattern created a short squeeze that took N50 161pts ~ 0.75% higher. Credits to RELIANCE that contributed to ~ 40pts today. Momentum is everything in a trend, we will wait and watch how Nifty50 reacts to the expiry day tomorrow.
63mts chart link
The last candle which is strongly is GREEN is standing out. Looks like the 21491 support is respected for now. If we fall below that tomorrow, we will not hesitate to switch back the stance to bearish. What the dominant animal is tomorrow - bear or bull is totally dependent on the opening 15mts.
RELIANCE | Investment Pick📊 DETAILS
Sector: Oil Exploration and Production
Mkt Cap: 1,581,655 cr
Reliance was founded by Dhirubhai Ambani and is now promoted and managed by his elder son, Mukesh Dhirubhai Ambani. Ambani's family has about 50% shareholding in the conglomerate.
TTM PE : 23.09 (Low PE)
Sector PE : 29.20
Beta : 1.25
📚 INSIGHTS
Mid-range performer
Stock with medium financial performance with average price momentum and valuation. These stocks may be affordable and are showing some investors interest.
18.15% away from 52 week high
Outperformer - Reliance Industries up by 0.82% v/s NIFTY 50 down by -1.11% in last 1 month
📈 FINANCIALS
Piotroski Score of 6/9 indicates Average Financials
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only, and I'm not a SEBI registered analyst.
If you found this analysis helpful, I encourage you to like and share it. Your observations and comments are also welcomed below. Your support, likes, follows, and comments motivate me to consistently share valuable insights with you.
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Time to Sell_ RelianceNamaste!
Any stock can not sustain it's bullish behaviour, without a correction.
Reliance has to correct, before going up again. It is the proved nature of markets.
Why selling any stock is a good idea.
1. To buy it back at a lower prices,
2. To full-fill urgent needs of money,
3. To let the weak hands enjoy the euphoria and not to stay in the markets when there is an extreme optimism.
So, I am suggesting a logical price to book profits in Reliance. The price would be Rs 3100. Why?
Look, the people who would have bought at around Rs 1100, will be getting around 2.9 times of there investment amount. Hence, they will be booking profits, resulting in a correction.
Okay, I will be sell it at the above price, but what if I want to buy it again.
A: You have to wait for greater than 15% correction from All time highs, before buying it again. Because, In India, LTCG is around 10%, so you have to get the stock back at 15% or more correction, to compensate for your extra efforts.
Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding of the markets. Please do your due-diligence and you are solely responsible for your decisions.
Alok Industries jumps after Reliance Industries invests $396 mln
Reliance Industries RELIANCE1! on Tuesday said it invested 33 bln rupees ($396.2 million) in ALOK by subscribing to preferential shares of co.
RELI, the largest shareholder of ALOK, holds a 40% stake in co
It's a penny stock . Today's news this stock create upper circuit.
These are the Level Details here for Stop Loss :
20.50
21.10
22.50
02 Jan ’24 — A Breakdown in Progress? 3 black crowsNifty Analysis - Stance: Neutral
Recap from yesterday: “The last candle is looking quite deep and has almost negated the progress of 3 days. If it was not related to any news/event, the outcomes match quite strongly for an interim top-like formation.”
4mts chart link - click here
The last 30mts action yesterday was not a blip, we got some continuity today. Nifty50 fell 199pts ~ 0.92% intraday to 21555 by 10.39 and then retraced 50% of that fall. The real impact was on BankNifty and not Nifty. Just like we often say, during trend reversals - BankNifty takes the lead and then Nifty50 follows. We did change the stance on BankNifty to bearish today (more on that in a while).
Even NiftyIT took some beating today, the positive contributors to Nifty50 were BAJFINANCE, RELIANCE, and ADANIPORTS. In fact, BAJFINANCE was the main reason FinNifty and BankNifty had a variance of 0.46% today.
63mts chart link - click here
We would like to maintain the stance on Nifty to neutral itself. The first target for a trend change will be the breach of the ascending channel top line approx 21530 levels. From a technical analysis perspective, we had the 3 black crows at 14.30 yesterday and the first 2 candles today. The last time we had a breakdown i.e. on 20th Dec, Nifty50 took support at the channel top line - so we must breach that now for extra confirmation.
Reliance chart studyReliance spot at 2600
Weekly time frame
Horizontal resistance as per previous life high levels, from where counter have changed trend in past,
Bearish wolf wave or wedge can also be considered as per formation.
Need to keep close watch on price action on daily time frame, if counter is not able to breakout and sustain above life high levels, can retrace around 5-7-10% going ahead,
counter have give around 20% move from 2200 levels one way so as per fibbo 50% retrace would give a good 8-10% fall in counter.
life high levels remain a key point as the juncture
Reliance : 3 Year of Resistance - Another Point of View📉 Alert! Bearish Pattern Spotted! 🐻
📊 Pattern: Curve Resistance
📌 Symbol/Asset: Reliance
🔍 Description: Stock is around 3 years of curve resistance.
It's another Point of View that noone is talking about.
We can see selling from 2600-2640 levels.
Shorting opportunity !!
👉 Disclosure: We are not SEBI registered analysts, this is not a buy or sell recommendation.
Big Bullish Breakout in Reliance InfraA Bullish Breakout of Flag and Pole pattern is visible on the Daily chart of NSE:RELINFRA
MACD will gave Positive crossover on Daily and already given positive crossover on Weekly and Monthly chart. So, expecting the momentum to continue.
One can create a fresh position in the scrip as per the levels mentioned on the chart.
Risk Disclaimer:
The information provided in this analysis is based on my personal interpretation of market conditions and the available data at the time of writing. It is advisable to seek advice from a qualified financial professional and to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
Reliance - At A BreakoutThe stock has been moving in a parallel channel for the last 2 months. Now comes to breach upper level. If crosses the channel and sustains above, may go to 2375 or even 2500 in coming sessions.
If sustains below 2290/80, will go weak.
The risk-reward ratio is very good at this point.
This is only my personal view for learning and sharing purposes, not a trading recommendation in any form.
All the best.
19th Dec ’23 - BankNifty and NiftyIT collusion to get N50 to ATHBankNifty Analysis
Going neutral on BankNifty worked out pretty well today. But things were not looking in favor till we got the reversal at 10.03. Till then BN was following the falling price action from yesterday. I was kind of worried that we may even re-renter the ascending channel today.
4mts chart link - click here
How and why we got the reversal - No clue. But BN climbed an impressive 369pts ~ 0.78pts to 48010 levels before giving up gains to close flat. The final close is 0.01% - how much more neutral can we be??
4mts chart link - click here
The ATH on Nifty50 looks like was planted. NiftyIT was falling pretty strongly and it was looking like a one-way trip down. NiftyIT recovered an impressive 423pts ~ 1.21% to help N50 take out the ATHs. So the Sync between NiftyIT, Reliance, and BankNifty was perfectly aligned to get the job done. And after that - things went back to normal. NiftyIt gave up 239pts and BN also dropped 227pts.
63mts chart link - click here
The neutral zone is highlighted by 2 horizontal blue lines. Since tomorrow is BankNifty expiry - I am really looking forward to seeing a directional attempt. I wish to stay neutral till then. BankNifty options premiums were looking pretty good today and were unlike the usual Tuesdays we see. VIX near the 14 range is really helping the option sellers.
18th Dec ’23 - Our market takes a pause - Nifty50 PostMortemNifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “My stance continues to be bullish with the first support level revised to 21341. All we can do now is trail the stop loss and let the winners run.
4mts chart link - click here
Nifty was absolutely trading in a narrow range with minor dips. More action was visible on BankNifty today which nudged me to go for a status change (will discuss this shortly). Nifty opened gap-down - the excess euphoria of Friday got shaved off and then it recovered from the LOD. Interestingly the low of the day was in the opening minutes and we never tested it. Technically 21341 was not tested and no status change is warranted.
63mts chart link - click here
There was nothing special in today’s action. Nifty defended its lower side quite neatly. NiftyIT was toggling between red and green. BankNifty was in RED. Nifty Pharma was quite energetic today, but the major point gainers for Nifty were RELIANCE and Bajaj Finance. I do not wish to change Nifty’s stance - I still prefer to look for long-only trades. However, 21341 would be the laxman rekha for me tomorrow also. If we get a closing below that - I would love to go neutral. To go bearish - we need to break below the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
#Largecaps #HRITIK stocks Over last few weeks, there had been too many posts on SM which were shared about some of the large cap names which have provided zero return over last "x" many months.
That intrigued me to understand the concept of timewise correction.
The composite chart of major large cap of Nifty or as they say HRITIK (+few others) stocks suggest that they have gone through similar timewise correction cycle of of almost 26 weeks where they had provided zero return in back in 2015 to 2017 and from there on the did rallied significantly about 40-50% before showing any sign of major price correction.
The current pattern from 2021 to 2023 is also very similar to what happened back then, and the current weekly closing suggest a big breakout on weekly charts, Will these stock show similar move as they did back in past is only time can tell us but as they say history always repeats itself and also as someone said " Elephants, large caps, take their own time.
And, when they move, only astonishment is left .", So may be time is right for them to start leading the Indian Market
The composite chart contain below stocks in it.
HDFCBANK
RELIANCE
ICICIBANK
TCS
INFY
KOTAKBANK
ITC
AXISBANK
SBIN
15th Dec ’23 - 0.5% variance b/w BankNifty & FinNifty - a first?BankNifty Analysis
The patterns and price action on BankNifty were interesting today. For the first time, I noticed a dichotomy with Finnifty’s points. BankNifty and FinNifty had a variance of 0.5% index-to-index basis. This gap remained as such for the entire day. I do not remember the last time they had a sizeable gap. 81.57% weighted stocks in Banknifty have a combined weight of 77.09% in Finnifty - still, we got a variance.
4mts chart link - click here
Today’s gap up was actually in the range set from yesterday. We did not break out until 14.27. So if we do not combine yesterday’s price action with today’s - the final painted picture will be different. The real deal today was NiftyIT which went up 4.56% and Reliance + Adani. SBI also played a part but BankNifty as a whole was not that crazy as Nifty. We finally ended the day with a gain of 0.86%. FinNifty ended with 0.32% gains.
63mts chart link - click here
BN has also made an island formation because of the gap-up yesterday. The stance remains unchanged at bullish. The first support level will be 47754. Meanwhile would like to find out why NiftyIT surged so much, definitely it has to do with some news or insider information.