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Technical Analysis

Guide to Recession - What Is It? Recession is a scary word for any country An economic recession occurs when the economy shrinks. During recessions, even businesses close their doors. Even an individual can see these things with his own eyes: 1. People lose their jobs 2. Investment lose their value 3. Business suffers losses Note: The recession is part of an economic cycle. If you haven't read that article, you can check it below: What is the Recession? Two consecutive quarters of back-to-back declines in gross domestic product constitute a recession. The recession is followed by the peak phase. Even if a recession lasts only a few months, the economy will not reach its peak after serval years when it ends. Effect on supply & Demand - The demand for goods decreased due to expensive prices. Supply will keep increasing, and on the other hand, demand will begin to decline. That causes an "excess of supply" and will lead to falling in prices. A recession usually lasts for a short period, but it can be painful. Every recession has a different cause, but they have the main reason for the cause of the recession. What is depression? - A deep recession that persists for a long time eventually leads to depression. During a recession, the inflation rate goes down. How to avoid recession? 1. Monetary Policy - Cut interest rates - Quantitative easing - helicopter money 2: Fiscal policy - Tax Cut - Higher government spending 3: higher inflation target 4: Financial stability Unemployment : We know that companies are healthy in expansion, but there is a saying, "too much of anything can be good for nothing." During peak, The company is unable to earn the next marginal dollar. Companies are taking more risk and debt to reset the growth Not only companies but investors and debtors also invest in risky assets. Why does lay-off occur? After the peak phase, companies are unable to earn the next marginal dollar. Now, the business is no more profitable. CCompaniesstart to reduce their costs to enter into a profitable system. For example - Labour Now, Companies are working with fewer employees. Fewer employees must work more efficiently. Otherwise, they may be lay-off by the company too. You can imagine the workload and pressure. You may argue that they should leave the company! Really? Guys, we just discussed the employment rate declines. How will you get a job when there is no job? Now, you get it! Let's assume the effects of the recession on the common man: Condition 1: He may be laid off. Condition 2: Perhaps he will be forced to work longer hours. The company is unable to maintain a positive outlook. Fewer employees are doing more work due to massive lay-off. His wages decline, and he has no disposable income. As a result, consumption rates are reduced, resulting in lower inflation rates. A slowdown in the economy is caused by lower prices, which decrease profits, resulting in more job cuts. Four Causes of Recession: 1. Economic Shocks 2. Loss of Consumer 3. High-interest rates 4. Sudden stock market crash 1) Economic shocks - When there is an external or economic shock the country faces. For example, COVID-19, 2) Consumer confidence - Negative perception about the economy and the company from consumers who lack confidence in their spending power. Instead of spending, they will choose to save money. As there is no spending, there is no demand for goods and services. The absence of spending results in a lack of demand for goods and services. 3) High-interest rates - High-interest rates will reduce spending. Loans are expensive, so few people take them out. Consumer spending, auto sales, and the housing market will be affected. There can be no good demand if there is no lending. There will be a decline in production. 4) Sudden stock market crash - evade people's trust in the stock market. As a result, they do recall their money and emotion drives them crazy. It can also be considered a psychological factor. As a result, people will not spend money and GDP will decline. Consumer Spending: During the recession, consumers don’t have additional income called disposable income. Consumer spending parts -- Durable goods - Lasts for more than one year -- Non-durable goods - Lasts for less than one year -- Service - Accounting, legal, massage services, etc Durable goods surfer during the recession. Non-durable goods are recession-proof because their day-to-day fundamentals are not affected by recessions. Let's take an example of two stocks, ABC Food vs ABC car But, will you stop buying food because of the recession? Will you reduce your consumption of toothpaste, bread, and milk? The answer is "NO". Consumers buy the same amount of food in good or bad times, On the other hand, consumers only trade in or trade off their car purchase when they are not only employed but optimistic about the safety of their jobs & confident that they could get a promotion or a high paid job with another employer. And People's disposable income is absorbed during the recession. Consumer spending is the crucial point to displacing recession. Auto sales: As we discussed, few people buy cars during a recession. New car sales count as economic growth. You may have heard about 0% loans. The company facilitates a 0% loan to increase auto sales. Mostly, people repair their cars or buy old cars during the recession. You may see a boost in the used car market and spare parts selling companies’ sales. Home sales/housing markets: I have a question now! Which is your biggest asset? Most of you will say, my home! New home sales are part of economic growth. Also, house price impact how wealthy consumer feel. Higher the home prices, the more they feel rich, and vice versa. When home prices are higher, consumers feel they are wealthy and they are willing to spend. But when house price declines, they reduce spending/consumption. If your biggest asset price declines, you don’t spend and the economy takes a longer time to recover. A higher rate stops increasing the home price because they have to pay more EMI. central bank reduces rates during the recession, and the housing market rate boosts because the loan/EMI is cheap. Interest rates: Generally, interest rates decline during a recession. Central banks cut interest rates that’s why loans become cheap. Benefits of Lower interest rates - - - Boost in the housing market. - - Increase sales of durable goods - - Boost in business investment - - Bonds and interest rates have an inverse relationship. An economic downturn tends to bring investors to bonds rather than stocks, which can perform well in a recession. - - During the recession, interest rates are lower and banks highers the criteria for getting loans, so that people can face the abstracts while lending money. Stock Market: I want to clarify that, the stock market is not an economy. The economic cycle is lagging behind the market cycle and sentiment cycle. It gives me a chill as a technical analyst and a sad moment as an economics lover. Sometimes it's ahead, and sometimes it's behind. Recession = bear market . Recession-Proof Industries: * Consumer staples * Guilty pleasures * Utilities * Healthcare * Information technology * Education I will write about this in the future, but for the time being, let's get back to technical analysis .
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Money_Dictators
6
BACKTESTED PIVOT INTRADAY STARTEGY [INDIA MARKET TIMING]A Back-tested Profitable Strategy for Free!! A PIVOT INTRADAY STRATEGY for 5 minute Time-Frame , that also explains the time condition for Indian Markets The Timing can be changed to fit other markets, scroll down to "TIME CONDITION" to know more. The commission is also included in the strategy . The basic idea is when , 1) Price crosses above ema1 ,indicated by pivot high line in green color . 2) Price crosses below ema1 ,indicated by pivot low line in red color . 3) Candle high crosses above pivot high , is the Long condition . 4) Candle low crosses below pivot low , is the Short condition . 5) Maximum Risk per trade for the intraday trade can be changed . 6) Default_qty_size is set to 60 contracts , which can be changed under settings → properties → order size . 7) ATR is used for trailing after entry, as mentioned in the inputs below. // ═════════════════════════// // ————————> INPUTS <————————— // // ═════════════════════════// Leftbars ——————————> Length of pivot highs and lows Rightbars —————————> Length of pivot highs and lows Price Cross Ema —————> Added condition ATR LONG —————————> ATR stoploss trail for Long positions ATR SHORT ————————> ATR stoploss trail for Short positions RISK ————————————> Maximum Risk per trade for the day The strategy was back-tested on RELIANCE ,the input values and the results are mentioned under "BACKTEST RESULTS" below . // ═════════════════════════ // // ————————> PROPERTIES<——————— // // ═════════════════════════ // Default_qty_size ————> 60 contracts , which can be changed under Settings ↓ Properties ↓ Order size // ═══════════════════════════════// // ————————> TIME CONDITION <————————— // // ═══════════════════════════════// The time can be changed in the script , Add it → click on ' { } ' → Pine editor→ making it a copy [right top corner} → Edit the line 25 . The Indian Markets open at 9:15am and closes at 3:30pm . The 'time_cond' specifies the time at which Entries should happen . "Close All" function closes all the trades at 3pm , at the open of the next candle. To change the time to close all trades , Go to Pine Editor → Edit the line 103 . All open trades get closed at 3pm , because some brokers don't allow you to place fresh intraday orders after 3pm . NSE:RELIANCE // ═══════════════════════════════════════════════ // // ————————> BACKTEST RESULTS ( 128 CLOSED TRADES )<————————— // // ═══════════════════════════════════════════════ // INPUTS can be changed for better back-test results. The strategy applied to NSE:RELIANCE ( 5 min Time-Frame and contract size 60) gives us 61% profitability , as shown below It was tested for a period a 6 months with a Profit Factor of 1.45 , Net Profit of 21,500Rs . Sharpe Ratio : 0.311 Sortino Ratio : 0.727 The graph has a Linear Curve with consistent profits. The INPUTS are as follows, 1) Leftbars ————————> 3 2) Rightbars ——————— > 5 3) Price Cross Ema ———> 150 4) ATR LONG ——————> 2.7 5) ATR SHORT —————> 2.9 6) RISK —————————> 2500 7) Default qty size ——> 60 NSE:RELIANCE Save it to favorites. Apply it to your charts Now !! FOLLOW US FOR MORE ! Thank me later ☺
NSE:RELIANCEEducation
by The_Algo_Engineer
1
How to Draw Trend lines In a ChartSteps To Follow - 1- Open The Chart In DTF (Daily Time Frame) 2- Switch To Line Graph To Capture CLOSING PRICE Of Stock 3- Now Take Trend Line From Your TOOLS and Construct A Trend Line (Joinig the CLOSING PRICE of Stock) 4- After Constructing The Trend Line ( SEE ALL POSSIBLE CLOSSING PRICES IN THE CHART ) 5- Now Switch to CANDLESTICK CHART 6 Now see where your stock price moving ( IF IT IS AT GOOD TRADE ABLE LEVELS THEN INITIATE YOUR TRADE AS PER YOUR SETUP ) NSE:DYNAMATECH
NSE:DYNAMATECHEducation
by adityagupta1
Perfect example of DOUBLE BOTTOM With DIVERGENCENSE:VOLTAS Double bottom is always a perfect pattern for LONG ENTRY. But I prefer to add some more factors which increases my probability to achieve the target. In this analysis tutorial, we will learn that. * After falling wedge pattern breakdown Stock momentum is exhaust near a good Support. - Never Entered in ONE SIDED BREAKDOWN or BREAKOUT. Wait for the Next GOOD SUPPORT - RESISTANCE, Because one sided move Creates a Doubt( maybe its a TRAP for a RETAIL TRADER like us). - ONE SIDED BO-BD can be a FAKE BO-BD ( In Mostly cases ) - And incase, If it's not a Fakeout - Fakedown, But a genuine one and we missed that - DON'T PANIC - Never entered in FOMO because this can spoil our RR. - THIS STRATEGY IS A SOLUTION FOR ALL THE ABOVE SITUATIONS. * And at that support( IN BIGGER TIME FRAME) I Found BULLISH DIVERGENCE. - Divergence is basically a manipulation by a big players. - In Bullish divergence with the help of some OSCILATTORS we see PRICE IS DECREASING but AVERAGE PRICE or STRENGTH or VOLUME is INCREASING. - {Opposite in BEARISH DIVERGENCE} - But if there is not any SUPPORT - RESISTANCE - - - - - IGNORE THAT AND NEVER ENTER. - Because WE FOLLOW ONLY&ONLY PRICE ACTION, Indicators is secondary. - And basic principle of PRICE ACTION is - NEVER ENTERD WITHOUT A SUPPORT RESTISTANCE ZONE OR TRENDLINE SUPPPORT OR ZONE. * When this stock Follows all rules of BULLISH DIVERGENCE I took a LONG ENTRY. - COMMENT if you wants to know all the RULES of DIVERGENCE. * Now chart pattern shows a signal of UPSIDE MOVE and our Divergence setup gives us a confirmation of that SO I ENTERED and ACHIEVED THE TARGET I hope this is helpful for beginners and a good revision for a pro players. DIVYA BIHARI DAS this side. THANKYOU SO MUCH. --------- COMMENT ----------- - Your Views - My Mistakes - Next Topic - Anything Relevant
NSE:VOLTASEducation
by DivyaBihariDas
How To Read Neowave Charts by Neowave ForecastHello Traders and Investors My Name is Manish Singh and i am an expert in Neowave. In this chart i have describe the coding method to read my charts. In Neowave Charts Degree labels used as intermediate, primary and cycle degree which is hard to understand by new user. Actually they understand 1 to 5 labels but they dont get the quiet idea in one look in which trend is this count is given. Thats why i came up with something simpler. So i am publishing this in the hope they everyone new trader easily understand the chart that it is in corection or in motive wave and for what time frame. As they follow my charts, than with time they will understand which degree takes how much amount of time approximately to complete its structure and it surely does in learning the neowave. Anyway friend kindly tell how you like the idea of this kind of coding. I am also puting some examples of chart here. 1) This is the chart of nifty in which long term wave is in correction and you can judge with the help of medium wave degree that where is long term wave correction can end or actually new trend is going to start now or it become a failure. you can judge the chart pattern with is also as you can see this is an flat structure. 2) This is another chart of USD/JPY In this chart i have used the old style of coding so that you can compare which one is easier to understand trend. As you can clearly understand with the help of count that it is going up but you were unable to catch that in which degree it is up or how long it will sustain there. Is there much bigger degree from the current one i am seeing.
NSE:IDEAEducation
by IIntelligentinvestor
12
How to Trade an ASCENDING TRIANGLE BREAKOUTSTRUCTURE --> ASCENDING TRIANGLE is a type of consolidation pattern formed after an Uptrend ( Markup Phase). --> ASCENDING TRIANGLE is a triangular pattern with a flat horizontal Resistance on the top and a Trendline that connects atleast two Higher Low swings from the bottom to the top of the Triangle. --> ASCENDING TRIANGLE is considered to be a Bullish Pattern because the Swing Lows are getting shifted Higher signifiying the Sellers loosing the strength . LOGICAL REASON BEHIND THE PATTERN --> As the ASCENDING TRIANGLE is having the flat horizontal Resistance on the top , There are stack of STOP-LOSS-ORDERS just above the horizontal Resistance. When some Strong Buyer punches a heavy buying order, The order Triggers all the STOP-LOSS-ORDERS which were placed above the horizontal Resistance turning the sellers as buyers. --> Seeing the Breakout various New Traders and Algo's place more buying orders and the price tend to move higher. Example --> Take the example of the crypto GMTUSDT . --> Initially the crypto was in the Mark-Up phase. --> Later this crypto entered into the Consolidation phase by making ASCENDING TRIANGLE as the consolidation pattern. --> $0.82 was the horizontal resistance established by this stock. --> The Lows started shifting up from $0.5 to $0.7 to $0.75 showing loss in seller strength . --> The Price started sustaining above the POC (Point of Control) showing buyers strength. --> When Price Breached $0.82 all SL orders were Trigerred and the crypto gave the breakout with volume . --> The price moved higher as new Traders and Algo's placed more buying orders . Target and Stoploss --> Target would be the Depth of the Ascending Triangle, Projected above the Resistance Breakout as mentioned in the Example Screenshot. --> Stoploss would be placed below the Breakout Candle LOW .
Education
by Roswin-Fernandes
28
Double Top - Full ExplanationA Double Top is considered a bearish signal, indicating a possible reversal of the current uptrend to a new downtrend. Sometimes called an "M" formation because of the pattern it creates on the chart, the Double Top is one of the most frequently seen and common of the patterns. The Double Top is a reversal pattern of an upward trend in a financial instrument's price. The Double Top marks an uptrend in the process of becoming a downtrend. A Double Top consists of two well-defined, sharp peaks at approximately the same price level. The two tops are distinct and sharp. The pattern is complete when prices decline below the lowest low in the formation. The lowest low is called the "confirmation point". The slowing momentum may be evidenced through a lagging peak on an oscillator like RSI. Though not required, the market may break above the first peak, even if briefly. A slight and temporary break above the first peak is preferred as it may excite the bulls only to reverse and trend lower. The neckline is formed between the price low of the valley between the two peaks. A break below this neckline will confirm the double top pattern. The bearish confirmation is specified by a break in the key price support level (neckline) situated at the low point between the ‘tops’. Important Characteristics Following are important characteristics for a Double Top. Uptrend Preceding Double Top The Double Top is a reversal formation. It begins with prices in an uptrend. The trend upwards should be fairly long and healthy. Time between Tops Generally, the longer the time between the two tops, the more important the pattern is as a good reversal signal. Decline from First Top The deeper the trough between the two tops, the better the performance of the pattern. Volume Volume tends to be heaviest during the first peak and lighter on the second. It is common to see volume pick up again at the time of breakout. Pullback after Breakout A pullback after the breakout is usual for a Double Top. The higher the volume on the breakout, the higher the likelihood is for a pullback. Two Peaks at Different Levels Sometimes the two peaks comprising a Double Top are not at exactly the same price level. This does not necessarily render the pattern invalid. Some analysts point out that investors should be less concerned if the second peak does not hit the high of the first peak. Trading with Double Top: There are certain rules when trading with Double Top chart patterns. Firstly one should see the market phase whether it is up or down. As the double top is formed at the end of an uptrend, the prior trend should be an uptrend. Traders should spot if two rounding tops are forming and also note the size of the tops. Traders should only enter the short position when the price break out from the support level or the neckline. Example: From the below example of the 15 Min chart of NIFTY we can see how bearish reversal takes places after the formation of the double Stop Loss & Target : In the case of a Double Top chart pattern, the stop loss should be placed at the second top of the pattern and can be trailed at the pullback high as price moves lower but this will be a bit aggressive. The price target should be equal to the distance between the neckline and the tops. Hope you all learnt from this post. Share with the community if you liked it. Regards Omahto
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Omahto
17
Introduction to Technical Analysis - Handbook for a laymanHi all, today we are going to study about basics and usage of technical analysis. I have prepared this wholesome post so that you guys are able to understand what technical analysis is all about. I have shortened the sentences to readable points, hence, don't mind the grammar. Learning objectives: After studying this post the student should be able to understand: 1. The basis of technical analysis 2. Top-down analysis in TA 3. Assumptions on which TA is based on What is Technical Analysis? 1. Art and science of forecasting future prices based on an examination of the past price movements. 2. Based on analyzing demand-supply in any tradable instrument. 3. Analyze prices, volumes, open interest, various patterns, and indicators to it in order to assess the future price movements. 4. It can be applied to any time frame. 5. TA ignores fundamentals (like financial and non-financial aspects of the company) and focuses on actual price movements. 6. TA is not astrology for predicting futures prices. The Basis of Technical Analysis What makes the Technical Analysis an effective tool to analyse the price behaviour, is explained by following theories given by Charles Dow: 1. Price discounts everything “Each price represents a momentary consensus of value of all market participants – large commercial interests and small speculators, fundamental researchers, technicians and gamblers- at the moment of transaction” – Dr Alexander Elder The current price fully reflects all the possible material information which could affect the price. The market price reflects the sum knowledge of all participants, including traders, investors, portfolio managers, buy-side analysts, sell-side analysts, market strategist, technical analysts, fundamental analysts and many others. Technical analysis looks at the price and what it has done in the past and assumes it will perform similarly in future under similar circumstances. 2. Price movements are not totally random If prices were always random, it would be extremely difficult to make money using technical analysis. Technical analysis is a trend following system. Most technicians acknowledge that hundreds of years of price charts have shown us one basic truth – prices move in trends. A technician believes that it is possible to identify a trend, invest or trade based on the trend and make money as the trend unfolds. TA can be applied to many different time frames, and so it is possible to spot both short-term and long-term trends. 3. What is more important than why “A technical analyst knows the price of everything, but the value of nothing”. Technical analysts are mainly concerned with two things: 1. The current price 2. The history of the price movement All of you will agree that the value of any asset is only what someone is willing to pay for it. Who needs to know why? By focusing just on price and nothing else, technical analysis represents a direct approach. The price is the final result of the fight between the forces of supply and demand. The objective of analysis is to forecast the direction of the future price. Fundamentalists are concerned with “why the price is what it is”. Technicians believe it is best to concentrate on what and never mind why. Why did the price go up? Simple, more buyers (demand) than sellers (supply). The principles of technical analysis are universally applicable. The principles of support, resistance, trend, trading range and other aspects can be applied to any chart. TA can be used for any time horizon; for any marketable instrument like stocks, futures and commodities, fixed-income securities, forex, etc. Top-down analysis in Technical analysis Consider the overall market, most probably the index. If the broader market were considered to be in bullish mode, analysis would proceed to a selection of sector charts. Those sectors that show the most promise would be selected for individual stock analysis. Once the sector list is narrowed to 3-5 industry groups, individual stock selection can begin. With a selection of 10-20 stock charts from each industry, a selection of 3-5 most promising stocks in each group can be made. After the stock selection, start with higher time frame charts and move down to the lower time frames. Technical Analysis: The basic assumptions The field of technical analysis is based on three assumptions: 1. The market discounts everything. 2. Price moves in trends. 3. History tends to repeat itself. The market discounts everything Technical analysis is criticised for considering only prices and ignoring the fundamental analysis of the company, economy etc. TA assumes that, at any given time, a stock’s price reflects everything that has or could affect the company - including fundamental factors. The market is driven by mass psychology and fluctuates with human emotions. Emotions may respond rapidly to extreme events, but normally change gradually over time. It is believed that the company’s fundamentals, along with broader economic factors and market psychology, are all priced into the stock, removing the need to actually consider these factors separately. This only leaves the analysis of price movement, which technical theory views as a product of the supply and demand for a particular stock in the market. Price move in trends “Trade with the trend” is the basic logic behind TA. Once a trend has been established, the future price movement is more likely to be in the same direction as the trend than to be against it. Analysts frame strategies based on this assumption only. Trend is your friend. Don’t betray your friend. History tends to repeat itself People have been using charts and patterns for several decades to demonstrate patterns in price movements that often repeat themselves. The repetitive nature of price movements is attributed to market psychology. Market participants tend to provide a consistent reaction to similar market stimuli over time. Big Green candle = Buy, Big Red candle = Sell. So, this is it for this post. It should clear all the basic doubts about TA. If it doesn't, post the queries in the comments and I will try to help you out. I spend a lot of time creating these educational posts, illustrations, charts, and PDFs. Please be appreciative of that and leave a like and comment if you found these helpful. It will help me to know that people are actually reading these posts. Also, if you need a PDF of this post with all the charts and illustrations, check out the links below this post. Disclaimer : This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk. Happy learning. Cheers! Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick) NSE Certified Technical & Fundamental Analyst
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by johntradingwick
121
CNX-PSUBANKHello All, PSU banks have been underperformers, however I can see a turnaround in this sector. A very beautiful VCP pattern is in formation and with a breakout of the horizontal line we may see some good rally in PSU banking stocks. Now, what to do after knowing this? How to look for stocks in this sector which may give good returns? Simple solution: 1) Take out the list of PSU banks. 2) Observe their charts. 3) Watch out for the one's which have already started to outperform their sectoral index i.e. CNXPSUBANK. 4) Keep a track of the stocks which are near their breakout zone or are trading at their resistance/support zones ( add them in your watchlist/ place price alerts). 5) Once you prepare a list of such stocks, read about them. See news articles related to those banks. I am sure you will find some good articles as to how their results might be. Note: Once you find your bet do not simply put in all the capital you want to invest in one go. Enter let's say 50% of the amount you want to invest, and then if the stock behaves in your direction you may think of adding further capital. Learn Pyramiding. I hope you will all follow this process and omit/add steps to it while filtering the stocks as per your experience/expertise. Do reach out to me incase you have any doubt or any advise/suggestion for me:) Happy Trading!
NSE:CNXPSUBANKEducation
by Ankit_Oberoi
Man Infra - Breakout & Volatality contraction My analysis is based on the Monthly chart. The monthly chart is considered ideal for long term investors and gives a directional perspective of the stock price. The stock is forming a double bottom pattern. Typically, a double bottom is formed after a single rounding bottom pattern is formed and is often an early sign of a potential reversal. According to Investopedia "Rounding bottom patterns will typically occur at the end of an extended bearish trend. The double bottom formation constructed from two consecutive rounding bottoms can also infer that investors are following the security to capitalize on its last push lower toward a support level. A double bottom will typically indicate a bullish reversal which provides an opportunity for investors to obtain profits from a bullish rally. After a double bottom, common trading strategies include long positions that will profit from a rising security price." Volume expansion can also be clearly seen as the candles are coming close to ATH (All time high). The ATH was in year 2010 and the stock has broken with a strong body candle and volumes after eleven years. If the period from January 2018 to July 2021 is observed carefully, there is volume contraction- this is a good sign. Relative Strength against CNX Infra index is outperforming since April 2021. This is another positive. Data from Screener.in shows that promoter has been increasing shareholding since September 2018 -from 63.13% to 66.10% in June 2021. Promoter buying is again considered a positive move. Entry strategy - now that the longer timeframe looks positive, we should move to the lower timeframe to get an entry. Here I will move to the Weekly timeframe and follow the Stan Weinstein framework. The stock has to be above the 30 Weekly MA, volume expansion must be clearly seen, range and body of weekly closing candle must be strong. Stock must be in HH HL structure. The stock fulfils the Stan Weinstein framework. If stock retraces and takes support within the 75-81 zone, that would be a good entry point to add from risk reward standpoint. Ensure volume does NOT expand when stock retraces. If you move to the Weekly timeframe, between the candles of 19 July 2021 to 30 August 2021 you will see a high tight flag (HTF) formation. The stock had run up approx. 86% between 19 April to 19 July 2021. HTF is a very rare pattern and forms in bull cycles and according to William O'Neil, HTF begins with a stock moving 100% to 120% in a very short time, usually four to eight weeks. It then corrects sideways no more than 10% to 25% usually in three to five weeks. It may not be HTF strictly by William O'Neil's definition, but the flag can be seen very clearly. Risk management is key in both investment or trading. If we see the current market cycle, NIFTY50 is forming newer highs. The rise has been unprecedented. This is fuelled by supply of money in the markets. What if in the near future money supply is chocked by tapering by FED or hawkish stance by MPC of RBI? In that case we will see a retracement even if the broader economy is doing well, structurally speaking. No one knows the future and hence a safer approach is to invest using a pyramid model i.e. take an entry when stock is just above the 50 Day MA with volumes above average and scale up. This could be an equal split, for example, 34-33-33 or 50-25-25. There is no hard and fast rule. There is a possibility that stock may shoot up after the first tranche and not give another opportunity to enter at retracement, but what is market turns against us? In that case our loss will be limited to the first tranche only. Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor or analyst. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The purpose is to share with peer community and learn from the experts. For any investment or trading calls, please consult your authorised investment advisor.
NSE:MANINFRAEducation
by culturalDealer79974
Phillips Carbon - Positional - a mistake I corrected Sharing a mistake I made and how I corrected it. On Weekly chart, I saw a nice rounding botton pattern and stock close to ATH with a BO candle of 26 July 2021. I also saw volume expansion on that day as well as expansion since the candle of 18 January 2021. I went long at approx. 270. Although RSI was above 60, what I failed to see was RSI High was flat. And price was making a high with flat RSI. That was my first mistake. The second mistake was my decision was based on upward slope of MA line and entry price was roughly 25% away from 30 Weekly MA. The third mistake I made was I have a rule where I add 20-25% corpus on BO with Volumes and slowly add the rest on retracement based on price action. In this case, I added 75% at one go. I also didn't see the Daily chart for entry. A lower timeframe is recommended as ideal for entry, so for someone like me who invests positionally basis Weekly charts, I should have taken cognizance of the price action on Daily. We don't know what will happen in future. Nifty 50 is on steroids and maybe price will go up or it may retrace and form a cup and handle pattern which is a better confirmation in terms of probability. At my entry price my risk was way too high to add 75% at one go (If I had added only 20-25% this would be a safe trade). And as investors and traders, we have to manage risk and protect capital. You may wonder why did I do this? It was my mind that was excited and momentarily I saw a prominent site where the stock had made the day's high. I make a conscious effort to not follow the calls given by research agencies or stock news sites. There is a reason behind this- news comes later, charts inform us earlier. I exited a part at cost and remain invested only 25% of my corpus for this stock. If stock retraces to the area of better Risk Reward zone, I will add more. Disl: This is not an investment or trading buy / sell advice. The purpose of this is educational- to share knowledge and learn from the community members. Please consult your investment advisor for any investment related advice.
PEducation
by culturalDealer79974
3
Elgi Equipments ELGIEQUIP - Positional Trading I have based my analysis on Stan Weinstein's framework on Weekly chart where price structure, 30 weekly MA, volume and relative strength (not RSI) play a role in analysing the trend. Personally, I like stocks near ATH because it tells me that prior resistance has been broken. It is important for me to select stocks that have strong relative strength against a particular index such as Nifty Infra in this case (Elgi makes compressors and they are capital goods for industry) or Nifty 500 the broader market. The area where price is moving up (marked with a green upward arrow) is defined as Stage 2 structure according to Stan Weinstein. After this, we see a Stage 3 structure marked with a black box. During Stage 3 structure, price is rangebound and this period can be for many weeks or months. Remember, this is where we lose TIME. And for traders (and also Investors), TIME is important. I have marked a breakout candle (in orange) and that is where I like to enter provided I see confirmation on volumes (marked with orange in the volume histogram). Stan Weinstein says Positional Traders should ride the trend and exit stocks only when they start trading below the 30 weekly MA. He further says not to buy in LH LL structure because there is no way one can tell how far or how long can the fall be. See for yourself how often stock stays lower. The breakout candle of 10 August 2020 is of importance. Note the volume expansion. Also note that retracement is till the mid point of the 10 August 2020 candle and stock does not fall anymore. The candles of 9 November 2020 and 7 December 2020 are also very important. The latter breaks prior pre-pandemic resistance. Around this time the Relative Strength of the stock starts outperforming against the broader market i.e. Nifty 500. Analysis is easy on hindsight. What would I do if I were to take a buy call now? I will go long only when I see a breakout candle (marked in orange) confirmed by Volumes. Because Nifty is near ATH and in Stage 3 structure, there are two things that might happen. It may again start a new Stage 2 structure or form a Stage 4 structure which is start falling from the box. Hence in a market like this, I would shift to the Daily chart, add a 50 Daily MA and if the stock breaches 50DMA and goes lower, I will exit 50% of my holding. And if it breaches the nearest swing low, I will exit completely- the candle of 27 May 2021 on Daily chart. This is a variation from Stan Weinstein's framework. Disclaimer- This is not an investment or trading buy/sell advice. The purpose is to share knowledge and learn from the community. I am not invested in the stock as on date.
NSE:ELGIEQUIPEducation
by culturalDealer79974
2
TRIANGLE PATTERN BREAKOUT- HOW DOES IT WORK? NAVIN FLUORINE - A beautiful triangle pattern breakout. A symmetrical triangle had formed between the support and resistance trendlines. A minimum of 2 peaks and 2 troughs are needed for a triangle formation. A bullish breakout occurs when the resistance line is broken upwards by a green candle closing above the line. This is also confirmed by good volumes of stock traded. After the breakout, the script price usually retraces ( a setback before the rally). The previous resistance line for the script will now act as a support line. The maximum height of the triangle will usually be the first target. Fibonacci extensions to 2.618, and 3.618 can be 2nd and 3rd targets respectively. All the best! Happy trading...
NSE:NAVINFLUOREducation
by Stock-Holmes
3
📉 Your Ultimate Guide to RSI Divergence (Settings & Tips) 📈 Hey traders, Relative strength index is a classic technical indicator . It is frequently applied to spot a market reversal. RSI divergence is considered to be a quite reliable signal of a coming trend violation and change . Though newbie traders think that the application of the divergence is quite complicated, in practice, you can easily identify it with the following tip s: 💠First of all, let's start with the settings . For the input , we will take 7/close . For the levels , we will take 80/20 . Then about the preconditions : 1️⃣ Firstly, the market must trade in a trend (bullish or bearish) with a sequence of lower lows / lower highs (bearish trend) or higher highs / higher lows (bullish trend). 2️⃣ Secondly, RSI must reach the overbought/oversold condition (80/20 levels) with one of the higher highs/higher lows. 3️⃣ Thirdly, with a consequent market higher high / lower low, RSI must show the lower high / higher low instead. ➡️ Once all these conditions are met, you spotted RSI Divergence . A strong counter-trend movement will be expected. Also, I should say something about a time frame selection . Personally, I prefer to apply it on a daily time frame , however, I know that scalpers apply divergence on intraday time frames as well. ❗️Remember, that it is preferable to trade the divergence in a combination with some price action pattern or some other reversal signal. ❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
3