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Government bonds

Recession Risks and Market CautionIn July 2022, we saw the yield curve (US 10-year Treasury vs the US 2-year Treasury) go negative. It’s been in that zone ever since, and now, as we approach the two-year mark, we’re on the brink of positive territory. An inverted yield curve has a well-documented history of signalling recession. When you factor in the PMI readings dropping below 50, rising unemployment rates, and NASDAQ already in correction mode with a 10% drop from its peak, the message is clear. So, what’s the takeaway? The indicators are pointing towards a potential recession and bear market. It’s wise to proceed with caution as these signals suggest we might be heading into choppy waters.
TVC:US10YShort
by breakout_ninja
Budget Analysis: Mother of Bull Markets Coming... The Government has managed to keep the fiscal math under control. More capex, less borrowing, reduced revenue deficit - all make up for a sound platform on which the economic development can take off. As and when the global economy picks up and India gets a ratings upgrade, expect yields to cool down even more and equity markets to shoot through the roof. If you can't read this from yesterday's budget, you are losing on a giant of an opportunity.
TVC:IN10Y
by MBIPL
Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, Starmer - Lessons for India from UKIndian Budget will be presented in Jul 2024. This will be a coalition government budget, hence there is a chance of the government going populist and yielding to coalition partners demands. Indian government has done a fabulous job in the last decade of maintaining the public finances in a strong position. This video tries to highlight where we stand due to our correct economic policies of the last decade - including a once in a century pandemic - against the global backdrop
TVC:GB10Y
by MBIPL
Predicting Nifty direction looking at India Govt 10Y Bond YieldWe can see an interesting correlation between t NSE:NIFTY1! he and the $TVC:IN10Y. See the charts. The top chart is showing India Govt 10 Yr Bond Yield (IN10Y) and the below chart is current Nifty Future. The IN10Y is making lower highs while our Nifty is making higher highs. In the chart with purple color mentioned the direction. We can see whenever the IN10Y is gong up, Nifty is going down and vice versa. The purpose of the study is to understand the recent Reserve Bank of India (RBI) highest ever dividend to Indian Govt. As we can see the IN10Y is negotiating it's long term support of around 7.00/6.95 level. (695-700 basic points, bp). And we can see the Nifty is at ATH (23K). Due to the high dividend of RBI naturally the Govt needs less money to be borrowed from money market through CGs and t-bills. Hence it will push the demand for the existing bonds higher, thus resulting a lower bond yield. If it breaks the 6.95 level in Weekly chart, it will see more downfall, resulting more upside to the Nifty. Enjoy the show.
TVC:IN10YLong
by pradipandsuvra
1
A bond market rally is now clearAfter rising inside a channel, the US 10-year bond yields are breaking the rising channel for wave B on the downside. This confirms the start of wave C down for bond yields. In terms of levels, it means eventually going back to maybe 3% in the US 10-year note, as wave C will break the neckline at 3.8%. So this will be a multi-month decline in bond yields, resulting in a long bond rally. We broke the rising channel at 4.45% so that is the key resistance here.
TVC:US10Y
by indiacharts
Understanding Impact of Bond Yield Differential on EquitiesOver the past decade the interest rate differential between US and India has been constantly going down. This has largely been due to stronger fiscal position of India and also gradual weakening of US Public Finances. This has led to the Rupee becoming more stable against the Greenback, thereby reducing the rate of inflation in India. Further, this has resulted in rising of equity markets over the last decade, and more importantly, the same setup is likely to stay or become better over the next two decades. Hence long term retail investors in India can benefit from this by placing algo based orders to buy Index ETFs on dips and reduce their cost of buying and stay invested over the long term thereby getting benefit of power of compounding. --------------------- Trading View Script:
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TVC:IN10YEducation
by MBIPL
7