A bond is a contract between an entity that borrows money and a creditor that lends it to the entity. When you purchase a bond, you are effectively giving a loan to the bond issuer. With government bonds, also known as sovereign bonds, a national government borrows money to fund its operations. The bond specifies what interest rate (coupon) will be paid and at which times during the life of the bond and when the principal funds, also known as face value, will be returned. This is called the maturity date. Bonds are an asset class by themselves that offers more stability than stocks.
The return on a bond is known in advance, which makes them low risk investments, although the risk is related to the credit rating of the bond issuer. If the coupon rate is higher than the prevailing interest rates, a bond becomes attractive so the demand for these bonds will increase, driving up their price. If the bond interest is lower than the prevailing interest rates, their price will drop, so bonds are inversely correlated to interest rates.
US 10 year yield at 2.80%. (Price falling)
Weekly chart
Cup pattern breakout seen at 2.67%.
3% plus possible.
Not a good sign for global equity markets.
Globally the theme of Central Bankers tightening monetary policy is well captured with German yields hitting new yearly highs. Interest rates are rising all across the Globe and emerging markets need to make note of this. Yields could be testing 1% in the coming months if crude continues its upturn.
Weekly chart
10 year yield broken 2 year resistance.
It is currently in the middle of the upward channel.
2 year resistance line could possibly act as a support which is at 7.50%-7.52%.
Yields could possibly retest support and then spike towards 8%.
Bond traders should ideally look to go short in price (long in yields at 7.50%) with stop at yield equivalent of ...
