Observe_Think_Act_Think

Observe_Think_Act_Think

My weekly view (Link below) My Trades today I did not trade today. My Observations for NIFTY NIFTY was mostly down and closed 0.56% down BANK NIFTY suffered 3.59%. Reliance came very near to 2200 level and then settled 0.47% higher. VIX gained closed to 2% Advance decline ratio 18 to 32. FII and DII data are a little on the negative...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

In my weekly view I had said 10580-10560 is a very important zone for me to watch. If NIFTY drops below this zone this week, I think NIFTY has started a bearish move, momentum of which is not known this time. If NIFTY continues in the 10700-10920 zone for this week, then I think NIFTY may keep distributing in the zone for some time. There is a possibility of...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

In my weekly view I had said If there is a breakout of 10850, I am not going to buy it till it gets confirmed by 2 days sustaining above it. There was a breakout, and it did not sustain above 10850 for long and came right back in the consolidation zone. ----------------------------------------------------- My trades today I sold 10800 CALLs when NIFTY...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

Review of my yesterday’s comments ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Tomorrow is a weekly expiry day. I am not sure if NIFTY pauses here for tomorrow or continues and fills the gap. Overall, I’ll trade now with bearish bias for the coming week. 10800 is a clear level which...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

I'll use my monthly view post to take weekly analysis forward There are interesting things to observe. 1. NIFTY has crossed previous intermediate high of 9889.05 of April last week. This makes it in firmly uptrend. 2. NIFTY is in uptrend on daily and weekly trend. 3. It is now visible to us that April was first leg of retracement and now second leg of...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

My Observations on higher level time frames 1. In my monthly view, I had said " The bounce we see after March 27 bottom is likely to fail". This got underlined when NIFTY fall below the longer term trend line from 2009. 2. The monthly range is contracting. NIFTY is unlikely form a large candle for May. 3. May is likely to end negative. My Observations on...

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NSE:NIFTY is making overlapping moves. Idea is to stay patient and wait for breakout. From current price action, NIFTY is all set to break out of 9400 tomorrow. I have sold calls, which will be in loss. But considering the market is consolidating, I am willing to take the risk of keeping those calls.

Observe_Think_Act_Think

NSE:NIFTY opened gap up today. But it could not keep above last high of 9340 for the day. So this is still consolidation range. Till it breaks out this range , it may be safe to hold these positions. Now, because of sold puts, I have high risk of gap down opening. But from price action for last few days, I'm carrying these positions. As discussed in weekly...

Observe_Think_Act_Think Updated 

Sterlite Technologies is looking good for short term. The stock has not fallen after March 13. It is also showing momentum for last 4 trading sessions. Risk reward is not attractive. Still this trade can be entered in the range of 73 - 80.

Observe_Think_Act_Think

Today was very tight consolidation day. NIFTY moved around 9000. 1. This was mostly expected as some markets are closed and many markets coming from long weekend. 2. Looking at the initial selling , I sold CALLs and then squared of for marginal profit. These kind of days are difficult to trade, but I was lucky to manage small profit.

Observe_Think_Act_Think

Below is my view for NIFTY for coming week 1. April 14 : Trading Holiday 2. April 13 : Lock down extension news 3. There could be some news on stimulus package, but I think it is not going to be enough to create sudden jump on the upside. 4. But with current momentum NIFTY could well go up first 9400 - 9600. 5. Hence intraday positions should be on the long...

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Good Day Today for me. Mostly traded as per plan. NIFTY is still in the large range of 8050 to 9150. But now, the breakout may have happened above 9050. Idea was to ride 8500 and 9200 OTM options. Then when NIFTY consolidated above 9000, I sold credit spread, which again turned out well as NIFTY expired above 9000.

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NIFTY is still in the large range of 9050 to 8055. The attempt to breakout of the range is at least stalled. Made small profit by shorting top of the range.

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Nifty Started with 2% selling on Open. Then it formed a range of 8100 and 8160, which was broken on the upside. But this breakout did not hold. Then later this range was broken on the other side below. Overall, difficult day to day trade.

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Expiry Day Today. Global markets mostly down. I expected NIFTY to have ranged day because right from the start VIX was falling. I made mistake of committing to PUT sell on the lower end of range too quickly.

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From the start, there were indications that NIFTY is going to have up day SGX NIFTY and Asian Markets and DJI all up. Then the first gap up got sold into. It was fast movement towards support. Idea was to keep buying the breakouts with limiting the risk with OTM Puts.

Observe_Think_Act_Think

Sold Out of Money Calls 8800 for possible breakdown of the range. NIFTY gaped down , profit booked too fast.

Observe_Think_Act_Think

Trading trapped shorts Learning 1. After decent uptrend, the first lower low is not actually shorting opportunity. 2. Second short could have been avoided if waiting for trend line break is confirmed on shorter time frames.