CCIV experienced a +545% bullish rally in 38 days, and experienced a 21% drop after that.
At this moment what should we do??? Buy? Hold? Sell?
Let’s look at Reward/Risk:
Reward to Risk ratio at this point shows 0.97 for sell position, which means the risk of stop loss being touched is almost the same as the chance for target price. For buy it is 1.03 and you see the chance of closing the trade with loss is the same as closing it with profits.
Let’s look at a simple analogy: “COIN FLIPPING”
In Coin flipping any time you try there is 50% chance of HEADS or TAILS. It doesn’t matter how many times you repeat it, any single try is independent from the last or the next try! But statistically, in 1000 coin flips you should have equal heads and tails..!
Similarly, in any trade we do there is a 50% chance of success or failure! Independent of the pervious or the next one! It is important to know that You can’t be a constant winner in any market if your statistics are equals to coin flipping. If your statistics shows your results are even below 50%, please stop trading immediately for your own sake and for the sake of your capital..!
It is good to know that in a bullish market everyone feels like they are “WOLOF WALL STREET”, but when market sentiment changes those who have no action plan tries hard to swim against the current, and no need to say they soon will be exhausted and may experience the catastrophic experience of losing all their profits and capital.
What differentiates a usual trader from a good one is having strategy to increase the odds of success in different market situations.
In conclusion, we need different strategies for different market situations, BULLISH, BEARISH or trend less.
Moshkelgosha
At this moment what should we do??? Buy? Hold? Sell?
Let’s look at Reward/Risk:
Reward to Risk ratio at this point shows 0.97 for sell position, which means the risk of stop loss being touched is almost the same as the chance for target price. For buy it is 1.03 and you see the chance of closing the trade with loss is the same as closing it with profits.
Let’s look at a simple analogy: “COIN FLIPPING”
In Coin flipping any time you try there is 50% chance of HEADS or TAILS. It doesn’t matter how many times you repeat it, any single try is independent from the last or the next try! But statistically, in 1000 coin flips you should have equal heads and tails..!
Similarly, in any trade we do there is a 50% chance of success or failure! Independent of the pervious or the next one! It is important to know that You can’t be a constant winner in any market if your statistics are equals to coin flipping. If your statistics shows your results are even below 50%, please stop trading immediately for your own sake and for the sake of your capital..!
It is good to know that in a bullish market everyone feels like they are “WOLOF WALL STREET”, but when market sentiment changes those who have no action plan tries hard to swim against the current, and no need to say they soon will be exhausted and may experience the catastrophic experience of losing all their profits and capital.
What differentiates a usual trader from a good one is having strategy to increase the odds of success in different market situations.
In conclusion, we need different strategies for different market situations, BULLISH, BEARISH or trend less.
Moshkelgosha
