Nifty Weak

Nifty is weak

After a long bull rally nifty broke the resistance of 17800 for a short time but could not hold it till weekly closing. Nifty is now weak below 17800 with minor support at around 17350 which should get easily broken given that the rally given by Nifty was around 2500 pts. 16800 or 16300 are more realistic bounce back targets for Nifty.

General Nifty trade setup:
Short Nifty below 17750
Target 1 17350/ 17400
Target 2 16800 / 16700
Target 3 16300 / 16200

I expect Nifty to retrace till Target 2 levels. Once 16800/700 is achieved and Nifty bounces from there then the rally may take it to 19000.

Nifty trade setup for Monday, 22 Aug:
Short Nifty Fut
Intraday SL 17750 / 17840 / 17900 / 18000 (depends on the price on which it is shorted)
Closing Basis SL 17750

Please ignore the indicators on the chart. They are irrelevant to this analysis.

Comment:

Nifty Future close ate 17493 on Monday while making a low of 17471. Nifty had opened at at 17688.
I hope at least 100 pts were booked here if you tracked the idea.

Longer term target of nifty is still open. Do not get scared by 1 or 2 day jumps in Nifty. Any bounce is an opportunity to short more

Comment:

Weekly expiry is near so volatility is range bound now. I expect the slide to continue on Friday.
At the same time FED Powel will do a press release on Friday on the economic outlook. That can be an event to define the future path.

Comment:

Too much of volatility in Nifty. I still maintain the next target of 17100-17050.
But keep SL. A daily closing above 17750 can bring a rally till 18150.

Trade closed manually:

I do not expect Nifty to expire below 17500 for the month of Sept. Closing this trade for now.