09 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty Analysis Blown to Pieces Today🧨
Yesterday we went with a 60% Neutral and 40% bearish stance for today. What happened from open till 13.15 - was in perfect harmony & as per the script. But the intraday rally of 177pts ~ 0.91% was totally shocking!
I was unprepared, unplanned and must say ran into losses today because of my bias. I should say with 100% honesty - my research failed me today. I had gone short once we broke the 19500 level - the rationale being Nifty is staying below the descending trend line. The short position held above water till the 19470 levels from where the reversals started hurting. Above 19590 even my neutral bias was taken for a ride. On the losses part - I dont feel that bad, because I have seen RED MTM before. But its been a while since my homework has proven me dead wrong.
Even now I am not entirely sure why we rallied like that, was it due to the RBI interest rate decision planned for tomorrow? (we will discuss in detail in the banknifty analysis section).
The 14.15 hourly candle that added 111pts ~ 0.57% has changed the game for Nifty. It ensured the final close is above the bearish trend line. The options premium of both PE and CE were abnormally low in spite of strong swing. This also limited my fire-fighting capabilities. For tomorrow I wish to stay neutral to start with, go long if 19700 levels are taken out and go short if we fall to 19550 levels.
I was unprepared, unplanned and must say ran into losses today because of my bias. I should say with 100% honesty - my research failed me today. I had gone short once we broke the 19500 level - the rationale being Nifty is staying below the descending trend line. The short position held above water till the 19470 levels from where the reversals started hurting. Above 19590 even my neutral bias was taken for a ride. On the losses part - I dont feel that bad, because I have seen RED MTM before. But its been a while since my homework has proven me dead wrong.
Even now I am not entirely sure why we rallied like that, was it due to the RBI interest rate decision planned for tomorrow? (we will discuss in detail in the banknifty analysis section).
The 14.15 hourly candle that added 111pts ~ 0.57% has changed the game for Nifty. It ensured the final close is above the bearish trend line. The options premium of both PE and CE were abnormally low in spite of strong swing. This also limited my fire-fighting capabilities. For tomorrow I wish to stay neutral to start with, go long if 19700 levels are taken out and go short if we fall to 19550 levels.
