Daily 4XSetUps - US01Y Trending Bearish While Normal Yield Curve

2025/01/12
Daily 4XSetUps - US01Y Trending Bearish While Normal Yield Curve
“after yield curve normalized, a recession always followed in the usa!
was this the calm before the economic storm? what will the fed do?”



The wife of one of my best trusted friends, may be the only one best one, both in terms of politics and economics, however, just said to me: "He's acting like a non-present child again - and he's not even in the White House yet!" She's right - that's why they voted for him - yes, I thought. Without contradicting her with a grin. Although I always have the feeling in her presence, as in the case of Samuel, that she instinctively knows emotionally what I mean. Who am I talking about? About Trump, of course! In the past week, a lot has come out again that, although it concerns observers and the press, certainly does not ensure relaxation, let alone peace. “CNN Anchor Busts Out Laughing At TOP Analysts Take On Trump’s ‘Ridiculous’ Plan To Seize Greenland”, which MSN also noted. While CNN not only nervously pointed out that "Everyone is talking about Greenland. Here's what it's like to visit", but also worried that "Trump's threats to Greenland, Canada and Panama explain everything about America First". Care for? No - it's absurd! Like ”‘It’s bananas. It’s insane.’ Trump critics seethe over Greenland ambitions” stated. But his motives are clear - he wants to make the USA the leading economic power again. MAGA - Make America Great Again. But “militaristic” expansionism? That's why the USA has a historic negative foreign trade balance! This is why the USA is the largest political debt organization in the history of our humanity! The emphasis is on "militaristic" - and why both the DXY and/or the US10Y more or less back towards the price action from 2001 to 2003, in the historical context. “MAGA” and also “Go, home Amy!” (in the best and worst sense, the rest of the world thinks) - and take care of your foreign trade balance and fiscal budget! What both the DXY and/or DXY reflect! For better or worse, this is likely to be the basic political scenario that can generally send the US Yield Curve up or down. Just ambivalently interactive about the US monetary policy of the FED. Federal Reserve Worried About How Trump Policies On Tariffs And Immigration Could Impact Inflation, Minutes Show" Isn't it?

“Above all else, I want you to think for yourself, to decide 1) what you want, 2) what is true and 3) what to do about it”
Ray Dalio

Sorry. I didn't address the issue of bonds before.
But I thought that the topic was self-evident - so not an issue.
If you follow me, I already pointed out in 2022 that you should secure your trading account with fixed-interest securities. In March 2023, I therefore formulated a long US01Y 4XSetUp - with a 75% share, so that you can operate any other transaction with a position size of 3%. In March 2024, a long US01Y 4XSetUp was also formulated - with a 50% share, so that you can continue to operate each further transaction with a position size of at least 3%. You should take advantage of this historic opportunity - parking interest on money in your account. This has hardly happened since 2008. However, the bond market also trades the future, like any financial market. And interest rates also play a decisive role here - i.e. the Fed's monetary policy. Use CME FedWatch to track the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices - that´s their function. Find out more fundamentally about the meaning and purpose of the interest rate structure, i.e. the US yield curve, in the Financial Times' "higher for longer" article series.

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4.996% : 2024/03/04 - Target Price
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4.996% : 2024/03/04 - Entry Price
4.228% : 2025/01/10 - last price action
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4.996% : 2024/03/04 - Stop Price
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Have a good time
- regardless of the price action!
Aaron



“daily 4XSetUps - …” is pure information material!
By trying to give you even more information about some trading capabilities to trade and/or invest in some securities. This post is not a call to action - it only provides information. You decide (not) to decide. Even if I am writing daily 4XSetUps with concrete entry prices, target prices and/or also stop prices! It is like it is - like I said; You decide to respond to the analysis I just formulated to buy, to sell, or to do nothing! More information about my approaches to investing in something specific or just trading it, or even just describing it, can be found in the daily "Another 48h - DXY ...! Analysis Post. Where I try to track the price action in DXY every day so that we learn something new daily.