ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.06.15

Jun 15, 2020

📍 The panic leg here is because we are reaching the endgame in the economic cycle. There is a risk of Turkish banks defaulting on this leg so watch-out for any exposure to specific sectors. If the operation demonstrated is a successful attack, then we have the final ✅ for those trading the macro move called last year:

EM FX looks extremely vulnerable for any overshoots on the risk front, local banks have been attempting to protect the 6.80x, if we can hold for today then we will start to see momentum kicking in. Turkey looks awful on the fundamental front and political too, a complete disaster mismanagement of the crisis.

The main thing is that 7.80x should be restrained via Fed => the attack on the final base can be brutal .. let's see if it plays out.

Jun 17, 2020

Note

Notice how USDTRY is dislocated from the board, even if risk moves onto the front foot there is little international trade to help Turkey. I am starting to build a bias that TRY weakness is coming but with Fed sitting on the USD offer, perhaps weaker TRY is better played through RUB.

Jun 24, 2020

Note

We will keep an eye on this one as we enter into value month/quarterly end flows. If we do not move out the range soon it will expire worthless.

Jul 3, 2020

Trade closed manually

Jul 20, 2020

Note

Wise decision to close manually, we entered into painful chop... This is starting to prepare for an expansion in vol; adding it back to the workbench very soon