The 90-90-90 rule - Why do traders fail?"Many are called, but few are chosen". Ever heard this proverb?
This is certainly true for trading, in fact, there is even a rule in trading about this, the 90-90-90 rule. So what does this rule say?
"90% of traders lose 90% of their money in 90 days"
😱😱😱
That's right, statistics show that 90% of people who start trading lose the majority of their money in less than 3 months. But why is that so? In this post I will try to lay out the reasons for failure, if you are a new or struggling trader, I'm sure you'll find this useful. Let's get into it ...
🤯 EXPECTATIONS
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Many start trading because they've seen or read about success stories, people becoming rich overnight, they might even have a friend who has been successful in trading and they think (to say it in Jeremy Clarckson's famous words) "How hard can it be?. With this approach, failure is imminent...
📐 NOT HAVING A PLAN
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"If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail - Benjamin Franklin . Trading without a plan results almost certainly in failure. Your trading plan should include the definition of your setup, entry, stop loss, profit taking, trade management, risk management and money management.
🔄 NOT TESTING YOUR PLAN
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OK, you have determined how you will trade, what defines your entries and exits, how much of your capital you will risk and how you will manage your trades. But do you know what is the expectancy of that plan? Do you know how much trades you will win on average, and how many you will lose? How much money can you expect to make?
Backtesting your plan, executing it flawlessly time after time on historical data will give you that information and the confidence to execute your plan time and time again without hesitation.
😱 EMOTIONS - THIS IS THE BIG ONE!
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If did not take the time to create a trading plan and backtest it, you don't really know what you are doing and emotions will have the best of you.
Fear, greed, hope, excitement, anxiousness, boredom and frustration will drive your hard earned capital away from you.
Results of these emotions are : trading too much, letting your losers run and cutting winners short, revenge trading, overleveraging etc...
I could write an entire post about each of the emotions and how they can affect you while trading, but it would make this post too lengthy. Just know that emotions are your biggest enemy when trading, for best results you should be in a stoic state when trading.
🕺 EGO
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"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.". If you want to prove the market that you are right, you are doomed to fail. The market is always right, no matter what happens, so you better learn to accept that your analysis or prediction of what would happen was wrong and cut your losses. Fast!
📚 LACK OF EDUCATION
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It takes many years to learn a skill or a profession, trading is no different. If you think about making lots of money without putting the time in to learn and test, you pretty much guarantee yourself to fail.
You wouldn't want a lawyer without education to defend you in court, or a self-proclaimed surgeon who learned on YouTube to operate on you, would you?
💰 STARTING CAPITAL TOO LOW
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If you're starting with a low capital, you will tend to try and make it grow fast, resulting in taking too many trades, too high of a risk, too high leverage. If you start with a low capital, you'll have to be OK with the fact that it will grow slowly and that it will take (a lot of) time to build up a sizeable account.
🚦 BUYING OR FOLLOWING SIGNALS
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"There is no such thing as easy money." You might think that you don't have the time to learn about trading, making and backtesting a trading plan. So why not follow signals?
Ask yourself what you know about this service? How profitable is it (and don't just go from the claims they make)? Do you know anything about the reason for a signal, why was it triggered?
Have you talked to other users who used the service, what do they think about it? Why is this person/company selling signals if they are so successful as they claim? Philanthropy ? 🤔
📉 INDICATORS OVERLOAD
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Indicators can help you make decisions for trading, but too many indicators can and will lead to opposite signals or "analysis paralysis.
Most indicators are derived from price, so it makes sense to learn how to read price action and discover the story behind the candles.
🆕 THE NEXT SHINY OBJECT SYNDROME
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You took the time to develop a trading plan and even tested it, but you run into a drawdown... Rather than counting on your experience and the expectancy that you know is there, you look for a new shiny method of trading, until the same thing happens again with this new method ... Rinse & repeat, never giving the chance for your original method, which you know was working when you tested it, to prove its worth ...
Alright, I think I have provided the main reasons why new or inexperienced traders fail. Knowing why they (or you) fail is one thing, doing something about it is not a small feat. But with enough dedication, persistance and the right mindset, you can prove these statistics wrong!
Feel like reasons are missing, let me know in the comments below.
So what is your story?
Are you a successful trader now but recognize these reasons for failure?
Are you a new trader? Was this helpful?
What did/will you do to overcome this?
What did/do you struggle most with?
Help the TradingView community by commenting below.
"Trading is a ruthless business that does not take any hostages, so you better come prepared." - Nico Muselle
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Community ideas
what type of trader🕵️♀️ are you ?✨SCALPING TRADER :>
The main advantage of scalping is the ability to gain profit from small price changes within the shortest time frame possible, which is often amplified by a larger position size. This is an intra-day type of trading which means that positions are closed before the end of the trading day or session
✨DAY TRADER :>
A day trader buys and subsequently sells financial instruments within the same trading day, which means all the positions that he creates are closed on the same trading day. Due to the short-term nature of day trading, there is less risk involved in it as there’s no risk of something happening overnight to cause a big loss.
✨SWING TRADER :>
Swing Trading is a strategy that focuses on taking smaller gains in short term trends and cutting losses quicker. The gains might be smaller, but done consistently over time they can compound into excellent annual returns. Swing Trading positions are usually held a few days to a couple of weeks, but can be held longer.
disclaimer - personal view
Process Of Value Investing EXPLAINED with chart 🎯 Understanding the process of value investing is easy. But it is not as easy to implement
The process starts with screening stocks based on its history.
-----Stock History:
Value investing is about picking blue chip stocks at discounted price. They represent established companies which has a long history trail. Example: stock analysis worksheet does not accept stocks which has less than 10 years financial data. Warren Buffett will probably look at, at least last 15 years data of a company to estimate its intrinsic value.
----Business Fundamentals:
Stock’s 10 years financial data should be checked to estimate the financial health of a company. Idea is to shortlist those stocks which are fundamentally strong. Value investors will invariably invest in only those companies which are fundamental power houses.
---Price Valuation:
This is the ultimate screener. No matter how established is the company, no matter how strong are its business, it is not enough. Value investors will not rest till it calculates the intrinsic value. To be more sure of the calculation, they will also apply a suitable margin of safety. Once this is done, comparing current price with intrinsic value value will highlight if the stocks is undervalued or overvalued. Undervalued stocks becomes a good buy.
Example
..Consider the case of Tata Steel & Tata Motors. These are the flagship companies of the Tata Group. Probably they will not cease to do business in next 100 years. But it is facing hard times since last 5-6 years.
..The company is doing everything to maintain the shareholders value. Today (in 2020), Tata Steel has takeover Bhushan Steel. Tata Motors has launched new premium cars. This is a hint of their competence.
..A common man must always be in look-out of such business to buy stocks. When we see the past 10 years performance of these companies, it is hard to estimate their intrinsic value. It is because, in the last 10 years, the company has not performed as well. They have been making low sales and lower profits.
..But looking ahead in future, the prospects looks more promising.
CONCLUSION :-
If you want to invest in stock market, you must learn to practice value investing. The investor must at least know how to value stocks of companies. This way he/she will at least not invest blindly.
There are two main ways of valuing stocks. One is done using financial ratios, and other is through intrinsic value calculation.
For people who do not want to go into the hassle of intrinsic value calculation can follow the financial ratio approach. But it is not as reliable.
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Cheat Sheet : Investment products at a Glance 🎯1) Cryptocurrencies: Highest Risk, Highest Return :-
There are 3 main types of Cryptocurrencies in the market now which are the most actively traded – Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin. Think of this as a new version of a stock, where the underlying thesis is the idea of decentralized ownership and value. For any other currencies in the market, for eg. USD , it is debt-based and backed by the respective monetary authorities. This also means that they are free to increase or decrease the supply to implement their policies on the market. For cryptocurrencies, they are limited in supply, hence the free market is completely at play here (demand and supply).
2) Stocks: High Risk, Highest Return:-
A stock (also called a share) is a part of ownership in a company. It represents a claim on the company’s assets and earnings and what that entitles you to do is to attend the Annual General Meetings (AGMs) and dividends payout if declared by the company. So essentially by buying into this company, you are betting that the management team and company fundamentals are able to get you more returns.
Total Returns = Capital Appreciation (price increases) + Dividend Payout (cash payouts)
3) Exchange Traded Funds (ETF): High Risk, High Return
Think of ETFs as an investment fund which is traded on a stock market. Essentially when you buy a stock of an ETF, you are buying into a basket of weighted shares. – diversification. Being actively traded also brings many benefits, namely, efficiency as well as liquidity compared to funds where often you would need to go through a long process to buy and sell the holdings. You can get a rather efficient price for your holdings at almost any time.
4) Unit Trust (Mutual Funds): High Risk, High Return
An instrument whereby you pay fund managers a fee of between 0.5% to 2% yearly to manage a pool of money (fund). Essentially their main goal is to outperform the benchmark return Where it is justified if they can outperform the market, they should indeed earn that fee because they know how to navigate and invest in the market better than you.
5) Bonds: Moderate Risk, Moderate Return
A bond is a type of debt instrument where an investor loans money to an entity. The entity can either be a corporate or more commonly government body. The purposes vary but it is mainly to raise funds for a defined period of time at a defined variable or fixed interest rate.
if you loan the amount for a longer period of time, the % interest increases towards the maturity date. As a bondholder, you reserve the right to the future payout at the maturity date. Something interesting about bonds is that they come in various types such as a Bond ETF (where it is a diversified basket of various bonds traded on the market) or a Bond Fund (where it is an actively managed basket of bonds with a purpose to beat the bond index)
6) Endowment: Low Risk, Low Return
An endowment policy is actually dressed up as a life insurance contract designed to pay a lump sum after a specific term (on its ‘maturity’) or on death. Usually, the structure is one which involves regular payments into this endowment fund held by your insurance company which then decides to invest and bring in some returns. Therefore it is a mix of some protection and forced savings plan (with a little better interest than a regular savings account normally)
7) Savings: No Risk, Negative Return
This is the most straightforward of all the different options. Actually, this is not an investment option but it is planted in the illustration above to show you how much you could be losing if you put your money in a normal savings account and not touch it. I think it is clear that the main goal is to have enough rainy day/opportunity funds of about 6 months of monthly expenses in this account. Next, by optimizing for an account which gives you the highest interest rates (although usually ranging from 1.5-2.0%). We actually did a useful comparison of which accounts make the most sense for you.
Guys check out the related ideas as well, it will work for you !
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Trading Psychology - The Cycle of Market EmotionsThe majority of traders spend most of their time looking for good trades. Once they enter a trade, they lose control and either suffer stress from losses or are jubilant with pleasure. They ride along with these emotions and forget about the essential element of becoming a successful trader – keeping emotions under control. Winning traders know the importance of psychology in trading, whilst amateurs are not aware of it or ignore it.
Develop your mental framework, your psychology by reading books, attending psychology webinars, remember, trading is 70% psychology and 30% skill. If you develop your mental framework appropriate for trading, you have won half of the battle.