Futures
Nifty: Probable expiry range for today June 10, 2021Nifty
Likely lower end of the range 15659
Likely Upper end of the range 15768
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
ICICI Bank: Chart set up and Trading strategy...!!!ICICI BANK
Chart view and strategy suggested in chart
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: F&O Strategy for 24 June expiryView and strategy given in chart
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
MARKEY CYCLES PSYCHOLOGY | EMOTIONS & COGNITIVE BIASES
All markets go through cycles of expansion and contraction.
📈When a market is in an expansion phase (an uptrend), there is a sentiment of optimism, belief, and greed. Typically, these are the main emotions that lead to a strong buying activity.
Sometimes, a strong sense of greed and belief overtakes the market in such a way that a financial bubble can form. In such a scenario, many investors become irrational, losing sight of the actual value and buying an asset only because they believe the market will continue to rise.
They get greedy and irrational by the impressive bullish movement, expecting to make huge profits. As the market gets heavily overbought, the local top is created. In general, this is considered to be the point of the highest risk.
In some cases, the market will start a sideways movement while smart money steadily sells the asset. This is also called the distribution stage. However, some markets don't present a clear distribution stage, and the downtrend starts sharply after the top is reached.
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
📉 When the market starts reversing, the euphoric mood can quickly turn into complacency, as many traders refuse to admit that the uptrend came to an end. As prices continue to fall, the market sentiment quickly moves to the bearish side. It often includes feelings of anxiety, denial, and panic.
In this context, by the anxiety we mean the moment when bullish biased market participants start to question why the price is falling, which soon leads to the denial stage. The denial period is marked by a sense of unacceptance. Many investors keep holding their losing positions, either because "it's too late to sell" or because they want still believe that "the market will come back soon."
But as the prices drop even lower, the selling wave gets stronger. At this point, fear and panic often lead to what is called a market capitulation (when holders give up and sell their assets close to the local bottom).
Eventually, the downtrend stops as the volatility decreases and the market stabilizes. Typically, the market experiences sideways movements before feelings of hope and optimism start arising again. Such a sideways period is called the accumulation stage.
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
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BANKNIFTY MAY TREND ANALYSISAfter trading within the Head and Shoulder pattern, the Bank Nifty finally gave a good breakout above our resistance line and traded 1200+ points up with very minimum resistance today.
The technical analysis shows a clear bull run from here till 37000 with internal corrections and Targets/Resistance given in the chart. Once the BANKNIFTY crosses the target, the respective target becomes immediate support to the same.
On the Bearish side if BANKNIFTY starts trading below 32350 then we can again see a Bearish move which I am highly not in the belief of.
The MACD is still showing a buying momentum and with reducing cases of COVID in India the markets seems to be ready for a Bull-run again.
You can always do back testings on Day/Week/5min charts as per your experience and track the Bank results to have a stronger view before taking any trade.
This is just my personal study and analysis. Do not trade on the basis of just my study. Do your own research as well.
Reference to my previous idea is in link below.
Nifty May 27 F&O StrategyNifty
CMP 14578
Last time when Nifty was at 14800 we felt that Nifty may not go below 50 day EMA
and felt it could be a buy on dips market.
- however currently Nifty is trading below 20 day & 50 day EMA
- RBI special announcement event with regards to Banking support done
We were cautious and went for a conservative strategy of selling Nifty 06 May expiry 14400 Put at 70
Nifty despite being down the strategy has yielded a profit to us
CMP 32
Option strategies may be less profitable per trade but if used properly it can increase your probability of more winning trades.
If today's closing is below the EMAs there is more likelihood of further downside
Positional Target for the current set up 14140 / 13800
Given the set up one may consider
selling Nifty 27 May 2021 expiry
15000 Call option
in the range of 140 - 160
cmp 144
Max profit potential at CMP Rs 10800/- per lot
Loss in strategy only if Nifty closes above 15144 on 27 May 2021
Be alert if Nifty closing is above 14720.
The strategy provides enough scope to adjust / exit with less damage if Nifty moves otherwise
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer:
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
AMARAJABAT - High Probability of bullish movement.On the chart pattern of AMARAJABAT, we have found a breakout and retest of the falling wedge. The stock is trading near the support zone. Let it break the high of previous candle and you can make a long entry.
Nifty May 06, 2021 Expiry strategyNifty
CMP 14801
- Nifty has 20 day and 50 day EMA support around 14620-14650
- Resistance around recent high of 15044
Given the set up
One may consider a Short strangle strategy for 06 May expiry
Sell Nifty
14600 Put option around 100
15000 Call option around 82
Max profit potential in strategy Rs 13650 (approximately 8% on Margin requirement)
Loss in strategy only if Nifty closes below 14418 or above 15182 on 06 May 2021
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer:
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: Is this a Buy in dips opportuinityNifty
Earlier we were expecting Nifty to do a sub 14000 level. In that post we had highlighted that Nifty has a chance of bouncing back towards 14655. Well the bounceback has been much more than that and today despite we seeing a big dip in Nifty, it is so far trading well above
- 20 day EMA at 14648 &
- 50 day EMA at 14622 currently
Trading above the EMA changes the structure and So far as Nifty stays above the 2 EMAs Nifty may be considered as a Buy on dips opportunity.
Exit if closing is below the EMA
Given the set up,
Strategy that can be deployed
Consider
Selling Nifty 06 May expiry 14400 Put option around 70
Lot size 75
Max profit potential in strategy Rs 5250 per lot.
The strategy gives a decent return potential
But More importantly the strategy provides Risk cover for a fall in Nifty price up to 14330 giving ample scope and time to exit with less damage in case Nifty moves otherwise.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer:
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Bank Nifty: Chart set up and trading strategyBank Nifty
Observations
- we observe Bank Nifty trading in down trend channel
- Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern seen in chart
Pattern gets invalidated if Bank Nifty closes below 30405
Given the set up, Strategy that may be considered
Consider selling Bank Nifty 27 May 2021 expiry
30000 Put option between 700-800 (Last traded Price 753)
The strategy has a return potential of Rs 17500- 20000 per lot
More importantly the strategy has inbuilt Stop loss protection up to 29300-29200 till 27 May which is roughly a protection of 2500 points from current levels
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer:
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NIFTY TRADE SETUP FOR EXPIRYThere will 3 kind of scenario in the market .1. Gap up2. Gap down 3. normal .L ets discuss all three scenario in detail and set a trade plan accordingly . 1} Gap up :- If nifty opens above 14575 or 14650 . then we will look for buy on dip till market sustain above 14450 . 2 } gap down opening :- if nifty opens below 14450 .then we will look for Sell on rise till nifty sustain below 14550 . 3. normal opening :- in case nifty opens 14450 - 14550 . then we will see range bound market . and movement comes either in first 15 minute or in 2nd part of market . in such scenario mark the range and sell Ce option at high and sell Pe option on Low. Nifty define its Range in first 15 min or max in 30 minute . Mark the range , identify the market and set your trade with conviction and SL. wish you all Happy trading . Thanks for messages and support.
Nifty: Trade data analysis, Chart set up and co-relationNifty
Derivative data analysis for trade day April 9, 2021
Futures Data
- Retail participants added 10.97K Index Futures Long Contracts & exited 434 Index Futures Short contracts
- FIIs added 990 Index Futures Long Contracts and added 6.56 K Index Futures Short Contracts
- Proprietary traders added 1.47K Index Futures Long contracts and added 5.98K Index Futures Short contracts
Call Option
- Retail participants added 2.71 Lakhs Call Long Contracts & added 2.76 Lakh Call Short contracts
- FIIs added 38.86 K Call Long Contracts and added 37.75 K Call Short Contracts
- Proprietary traders added 1.04 Lakh Call Long contracts and added 1.01 Lakh Call Short contracts
Put Option
- Retail participants added 1.77 Lakhs Put Long Contracts & added 2.12 Lakhs Put Short contracts
- FIIs added 34.04 K Put Long Contracts and added 18.61 K Put Short Contracts
- Proprietary traders added 1.01 Lakh Put Long contracts and added 82.87 K Put Short contracts
At important technical resistance levels, We observe retail traders going Long aggressively and on the other hand FIIs and Proprietary traders going short in index futures.
On the Options front, we observe Retail traders being Net neutral in Call Options and Net Put Short
FIIs & Proprietary traders were Net neutral in Calls and were Net Put buyers
Today, we see Nifty dropping 400 points... and the result is in front of us who the winner of the set up is...
If you have been following me, you would realize I have been highlighting the importance of resistance at 14882. On an intraday basis, it did breach it and traded higher but on a closing basis it was respected to perfection. Our strategy to sell 14900 Call option had factored in this kind of risk and we were well positioned and came out making profits in the trade
Prior to this we also suggested a strategy to go short in 15200 Call option for May series in the region of 250-300.
Our strategy to sell 15200 Call option for May series in the region of 250-300 gave ample opportunity to enter the trade . It has made a low of 143 so far and is now trading at 150 and is in profit
Going forward, On Technical Analysis front
- it has opened below 50 day EMA
- broken the yellow turned dotted red line
- at the important blue Lakshman Rekha line ( level identified since February 2021 and has been massively respected)
- with multiple re-test of Laxmam Rekha line, is it getting weaker and would it break...???
Only time will tell... All these points have been discussed in my previous Nifty posts which you can go through...
This is not a recommendation now. We are reaping the rewards of the hard work done earlier.
This post is more for you to understand
- the importance of doing your homework,
- analyzing profit potential and risk involved before you enter a trade &
- preparing a trading plan that suits you and factors in the risk....
- and more importantly be in control of the situation and be in better frame of mind.
If you want to improve as a trader, first thing you need to do is ensure your mind is relaxed.
And to be relaxed you need to prepare a good trading plan.
Remember, chances of you making a better trading decision would increase when you do your homework and when you have the right mindset.
Best wishes....!!!
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Nifty: Chart levels and trading strategy for the 08 April expiryNifty
CMP 14774
- We have got the rise we were looking for
- on charts we see 2 important resistance levels at 14818 and 14885 levels
given the levels we have suggested a trading strategy in chart
The trading strategy covers risk for a rise in Nifty price up to 14954-14964 giving us ample scope to adjust / exit in case Nifty movement is not in favor.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer :
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Short the BankNifty Early MondayTrade-hour analysis
The BNF is about to break a downward channel and correct after the COVID-corrective bull run.
Sell if the BNF confirms the 15m Bearish trend and take profits at 33530-33540
If there is gap up openning then wait for gap to be filled.
If the there are more positive fundamental cues (Highly unlikely) Enter at the top buy zone after confirmation and TP at the closest DSZ.