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U.S. Dollar / Indian Rupee

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USDINR trade ideas

USDINR is ending a fifth wave in Ending DiagonalAfter a symmetrical triangle in wave 4, little did I think that wave 5 would end up being a multi month ED. I mean we have been trying to mark this 5th wave count for months and it just keeps extending. In the end we redraw the lines again and again. Today again we are at the top end of the range and if prices stop here we can complete wave e of 5 and form a top. The next few days will be interesting to interpret what is happening to USDINR.
Short
by indiacharts
USDINR By KRS ChartsDate: 3rd July 2024 Time: 7:40 PM Why USDINR? 1. Everyone know INR is getting weaker against USD day by day, and same thing happened here since Oct 2022 but inside Rising Wedge Pattern in Weekly TF. 2. In Bigger view This Rising Wedge Pattern has formed around resistance line off Bigger Flag in Monthly TF. (Red Doted Line) 3. This pattern can either Breakout or Breakdown any side but after considering above both points its likely to Breakdown rather than Breakout till green dotted support line. Currencies movements are on many Factors so Thats my view on USDINR is Slightly more bearish than Bullish. But I will appreciate your views on this too, what you guys are thinking?
Short
by KRSCharts
4
"Forecasting the USD/INR: Potential Drop to 43 on the Horizon?"USD/INR Elliott Wave Analysis: Is a Major Correction to 43 in Sight? The USD/INR pair has been riding a long-term uptrend for decades, reaching historic highs near 83.90 INR per USD. However, recent Elliott Wave analysis suggests that this rally may be coming to an end. The chart points to a completed 5-wave structure, with the potential for a significant correction on the horizon. Wave Count Breakdown: The 5-wave cycle seems to have peaked at Wave 5, indicating the possible conclusion of the uptrend. The corrective phase is now expected to unfold in an ABC pattern, with Wave (A) potentially bringing the price down to around the 70 INR level. A brief recovery in Wave (B) could follow, but Wave (C) is projected to drive the USD/INR further down, potentially reaching the 43 INR mark—a dramatic shift from current levels. What Does This Mean for Traders? If this Elliott Wave analysis holds true, the USD/INR could face a substantial bearish move in the coming years. This would present a key opportunity for traders to short the pair, especially as the price approaches the critical Wave (A) support level. However, before making any moves, traders should watch for confirmation signals and stay mindful of macroeconomic factors that could impact the U.S. dollar and the Indian rupee. For those on the long side of the trade, this might be a good time to start reducing exposure or look for exit points, as the risk of a market reversal appears to be increasing. Key Levels to Watch: Wave (A) Support: ~70 INR/USD Wave (C) Target: ~43 INR/USD This correction could take time to play out, but the chart indicates that a long-term shift may be underway. Keep monitoring the pair for key breaks in structure to confirm the onset of the corrective waves.
Short
by Elliottwave-Edge
2
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Long
by Arthavidhi
USDINR_This Chart Say Something_Loudly Most Asian currencies moved little on Tuesday as the dollar tread water in anticipation of key inflation data due later in the day, while the Japanese yen weakened further ahead of more cues on the economy. Sentiment towards regional currencies remained constrained after a large risk-off move across markets last week, while an unwinding carry trade with the yen also weighed. Uncertainty ahead of more economic signals from China also weighed, amid persistent concerns over a slowdown in the region’s biggest economy. Dollar steadies with CPI data on tap The dollar index and dollar index futures moved little in Asian trade, extending a sluggish overnight performance as anticipation of the inflation data deterred big bets. Consumer price index data, due on Wednesday, is expected to show inflation cooled slightly in July- a scenario that gives the Federal Reserve more headroom to begin cutting interest rates. Lower rates bode poorly for the dollar. A softer inflation reading could also spark renewed concerns over a U.S. recession, inviting even deeper interest rate cuts from the Fed. Traders are split over a 25 or 50 basis point cut by the Fed in September, with July’s inflation reading likely to factor into the decision. Beyond the inflation data, industrial production and retail sales data is also on tap this week. Japanese yen weakens further, GDP data awaited Weakness in the Japanese yen persisted following some less hawkish statements from the Bank of Japan last week, with the USDJPY pair rising 0.2% to 147.48 yen.
Long
by Pranay_Kamdi
USDINR_BREAKOUT AFTER GOOD CONSOLIDATION PHASE_BIG GREEN BARA breakout is a potential trading opportunity that occurs when an asset's price moves above a resistance level or moves below a support level on increasing volume. The first step in trading breakouts is to identify current price trend patterns along with support and resistance levels in order to plan possible entry and exit points. Breakouts occur in all types of market environments. Typically, the most explosive price movements are a result of channel breakouts and price pattern breakouts. Now this time RSI Justify USDINR Breakout, entering above RSI 60 level after long time.
Long
by Pranay_Kamdi
NIFTY : FALL (CONDITIONAL)This is my prediction and not that I am expecting it to happen (and definitely not wishing at all). This is a post election scenario where BJP is not able to prove its majority (either by itself or thru coalition). Or there is a hung parliament. Nifty could easily fall to 17840 - 18800 levels in matter few trading sessions. And depending upon what happens after that there could be a recovery or if things remain uncertain, Nifty could fall further. The carnage in BNF and Mid/Small stocks could be even more painful. This should be taken as a prediction and there is a very small chance it could happen. But still there is a chance. 2004 memory is still fresh in my mind. But if BJP comes to power on its own, even 300+ (BJP only), NIFTY can easily break 23500 in 1st week of June. VIX is expected to remain at elevated levels. Swings on both sides will be wild and brutal. Thursday was just a trailer (picture abhi baki hai mere dost!) Trade carefully. LAST BUT NOT THE LEAST If Nifty comes to 18800, place bullish bet (Mutual Funds, Equity or ETF) on Indian equity markets. Because there will be recovery, just like 2004.
Short
by SABSEBADASETAN
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair is consolidating between 83.35 & 83.62 for the third consecutive week. It is observed that the currency pair is drifting back in to the top of the rectangle. The indications are that the pair may break the barrier at 83.65 and move higher towards 83.80. Any daily close beyond 83.80 is a clear indication of the Alligator formation opening its mouth in which case we may see 84.20 sooner. The market will try to position itself for covering the Imports on any dip. We are back in the same old range of 83.30-83.62. A few observations a. Expect the range of 83.30 would hold for the week and there could be attempt to break higher both on account of global cues and technical outlook. b. There is divergence seen in the charts c. The currency pair seems to have its own agenda and reflect the sentiments similar to CNY currency. A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 o Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects • Next couple of weeks is crucial. The final hope remains at 83.80. If this level breaches on a closing basis, then the Alligator pattern will kick-in and it would be a confirmed move towards 85.70 in the near future. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe currency pair is consolidating between 83.25 & 83.55 for the second consecutive week. It is observed that the currency pair is drifting back in to the rectangle. The indications are that the pair may re-attempt 83.10 and possibly 82.95 once before attempting higher levels. The market will try to position itself for covering the Imports on any dip. Markets were expecting huge flows to happen towards the annual closing and it went the other way. We are back in the same old range of 83.00-83.30. A few observations a. Expect the range of 83.10 - 83.45 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. b. There is divergence seen in the charts c. The currency pair seem to have its own agenda and reflect the sentiments similar to CNY currency. A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 o Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects • Next couple of weeks is crucial. The final hope remains at 83.70. If this level breaches on a closing basis, then the Alligator pattern will kick-in and it would be a confirmed move towards 85.70 in the near future. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe chart shows an ATH of 83.69 whereas the on-shore markets high is believed to be 83.49 in this move. Thank God that the pair did not move beyond 83.70 else it would have been a disaster. Also that the currency pair is drifting back in to the rectangle. The market will try to position itself for covering the Imports on any dip. Markets were expecting huge flows to happen towards the annual closing and it went the other way. We atre back in the same old range of 83.00-83.30. A few observations a. Expect the range of 83.20 - 83.45 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. b. There is divergence seen in the charts c. The currency pair does not seem to follow DXY, Stocks or the Precious metals A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 o Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects • Next couple of weeks is crucial. The final hope remains at 83.70. If this level breaches on a closing basis, then the Alligator pattern will kick-in and it would be a confirmed move towards 85.70 in the near future. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe pair below 82.80 after nearly 6 months was like a fairy tale and the story proved to be short lived. The tweezer bottom at 82.65 worked perfectly. As expected the pair attempted the long term trend line resistance at 83.09.The market witnessed a sharp move past the boxed range and the pair made a new ATH at 83.69. This comes as shocker for the market as the long protected range of 83.30-83.45 got breached The Annual closing and balance sheet related exposure hedging is likely to keep the pair well above 83 levels. A few observations a. Expect the range of 83.30 - 83.70 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. b. There is divergence seen in the charts c. The currency pair does not seem to follow DXY, Stocks or the Precious metals A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 • As noted in our 3rd July Blog: o A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. o Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects • Next couple of weeks are crucial. The final hope remains at 83.70. If this level breaches on a closing basis, then the Alligator pattern will kick-in and it would be a confirmed move towards 85.70 in the near future. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe pair drifting below 82.80 after nearly 6 months was like a fairy tale and the story proved to be short lived. The pair made a tweezer bottom at 82.65 and closed the week at 82.86. Ideally it might attempt the long term trend line resistance at 83.09 and find sellers emerging. The Currency market seems to have lost the shine as most of the currencies are moving in a narrow range waiting for a trigger event. We can expect a consolidation between 82.65 and 83.10. A few observations a. Expect the range of 82.65 - 83.09 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. b. The currency pair does not seem to follow DXY, Stocks or the Precious metals c. There is divergence seen in the charts A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 • As noted in our 3rd July Blog: o A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. o Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects • The next couple of weeks are crucial. We will get to know if we are heading towards 82.30 or 83.50 Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe pair finally closed below 82.80 after nearly 6 months. The pair was traded between 82.92 and 82.66. The good part is that the upside has gradually brought down from 83.30 to below 83. The Currency market seems to have lost the shine as most of the currencies are moving in a narrow range waiting for a trigger event. We can expect a consolidation between 82.40 and 82.90. A few observations a. The currency pair does not seem to follow the DXY, Stocks or the Precious metals b. There is divergence seen in the charts c. Expect the range of 82.40 - 82.92 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A few more observations: Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months. • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70 • As noted in our 3rd July Blog: o A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected. o Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects • The currency pair is at a crucial level on a trend line from Nov 22, a break now or not in near future will be known this month • The next couple of weeks are crucial. We will get to know if we are heading towards 82.30 or 83.50 Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF