ridethepig | CHF Market Commentary 2020.02.14
Models make it hard to add any longs to USDCHF here at the highs, risk opening the floodgates for a -1.5% short, mainly stemming from a notable pick up in demand for CHF after the latest shift in risk sentiment.
Here tracking the risks related to coronavirus that imply the Eurozone growth will take another hit (as if things were not already difficult enough for Europe) and CHF will act as a safe haven in the flow. On the SNB side, intervention is a lot more tricky with Trump tracking like a hawk for any artificial devaluation. For the short-term flows I am tracking 0.980x for the trigger, risking -25 on the day and targeting a retest of the Weekly open.
On the macro charts things are clearer:
From a technical perspective, we marked the long term highs in an ending diagonal count. For those following the previous charts we have traded live here on Tradingview this ABC leg. This is far from surprising considering that CHF has a much brighter nature of dealing with large capital flows than the US, which is underlined by protectionism. Risks to the thesis come from SNB intervention capping the upside in CHF (unlikely as per this morning).
As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
Here tracking the risks related to coronavirus that imply the Eurozone growth will take another hit (as if things were not already difficult enough for Europe) and CHF will act as a safe haven in the flow. On the SNB side, intervention is a lot more tricky with Trump tracking like a hawk for any artificial devaluation. For the short-term flows I am tracking 0.980x for the trigger, risking -25 on the day and targeting a retest of the Weekly open.
On the macro charts things are clearer:
From a technical perspective, we marked the long term highs in an ending diagonal count. For those following the previous charts we have traded live here on Tradingview this ABC leg. This is far from surprising considering that CHF has a much brighter nature of dealing with large capital flows than the US, which is underlined by protectionism. Risks to the thesis come from SNB intervention capping the upside in CHF (unlikely as per this morning).
As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
Comment:
We will need a hand from risk to close the week here
Order cancelled:
No fills.. next..
