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Trend Analysis

NIFTY BREAKDOWNNIFTY has been trading in a ascending channel for the last few months, properly following and respecting the course of the channel until yesterday when the new variant of the corona virus has seen a negative impacts on the global front. There was a gap down and also a breakdown as we can see the red candlestick has clearly breached the lower support of the channel. Points supporting a Breakdown: (i) 17700 Head and Shoulder Pattern breakdown (ii) Ascending channel breakdown Hence Indicating NIFTY in a down trend. Till where can NIFTY fall: Support levels are as follows- (i) 17000 immediate support psychological support (ii) 16900 0.382 Fibonacci retracement support (iii) 16700 a big support of the previous breakout zone. (iv) 16375 Fibonacci support Omicron variant of Covid-19 still seems to hamper international tensions, so trade cautiously and don't go against the trend. Have a happy week ahead and Happy Trading.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by aaroncastelino25
2
Nifty - A short study using the various indicatorsLet's analyze the charts using different indicators that are commonly used so as to see what the different traders are looking at. Daily time frame 1. The RSI still has a potential for further selling. We are near the oversold territory. 2. There is no prominent support on the daily time frame until 15900-16000. 3. The 200 MA cluster is near 16100, which almost overlaps with the horizontal support at 16000. 4. So, it is safe to assume that 16000 should act as good support on the daily time frame. 4 hours time frame 1. Let's start with RSI and MACD. Both the indicators are showing that the price has been in the oversold region and there is still a good selling pressure. 2. There has been a confirmed breakdown of 17429 level, which was an important level since September. 3. An unfilled gap is present at 16764-16722. For those who don't know, gaps act as areas of support and resistance. Hence, it's highly likely that we fill this gap in the coming days. 4. There is an untested monthly pivot at 16700. 5. The price has closed below the 200 MA cluster. We may expect only 2 things: i> Either the trend has reversed and the market wants to go down. ii> Or the price is just hunting for liquidity at obvious levels and taking out the retail longs from the market. I am more inclined towards the 2nd case. We may hunt a bit more (about 2-3%) so that the bearish narrative is set, before resuming the uptrend. A weak support level is also available near 16350, which has been tested only once. Hourly time frame 1. Hourly time frame plays an important role since it is used by the swing traders for entry/exit. 2. There is a bullish divergence which may provide a dead cat bounce. 3. If there is a relief rally, then we may push till 17300-17400, before selling again. 4. This relief rally will be to trap the breakout longs along the trendline and to grab liquidity. TPO chart (Unavailable on Tradingview. If you want to see TPO chart of this post, check the PDF link under this post) If we look at the TPO chart on the daily time frame, we can notice the following things: 1. A single print between 16900-16740, which is expected to be filled. 2. An untested value area high from August near 16690, which may act as a support. 3. POC of August at 16337, which is expected to act as a support. 4. A prominent POC at 15757, which has a very high probability to act as a support. In simple words, we have plenty of interest zones from 16900-16300 that may act as support. But we cannot pinpoint the exact reversal point. Volume Profile (June-Present): 1. On the downside, the nearest high-volume node lies at 16600. The other high volume node lies at 16200. 2. On the upside, the nearest high volume node lies at 17400, which was already taken out. 3. The POC lies at about 15800, where a massive volume was traded. This should act as very strong support. Conclusion: In my humble opinion, we have plenty of supports from 16000-16500 as per different indicators/factors. It would be good if we sell-off till these levels so the market can find the bottom faster. P.S: Take this post with a pinch of salt. This is just my opinion and what I am able to conclude using my limited knowledge. You are free to do your own research. Also, if anyone is interested in getting a PDF version of this thread along with all the charts, then you can check the links under this post. Disclaimer: This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk. Happy learning. Cheers! Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick)
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by johntradingwick
12
GOLDEN CROSSOVER Golden Strategy INDICATORS USED: EMA 4 EMA 9 EMA 18 TIME FRAME FOR ENTRY/EXIT: 5 min WORKS VERY WELL ON BOTH NIFTY AND BANK NIFTY As you can see on the chart that when EMA 4 crosses EMA 9 and EMA 18 together then the crossover of EMA 4 is golden crossover. This is the bookish definition...Now let's look at the applications with complete trading setup This strategy works well only on a trending day... STRATEGY: BUY once there is a golden crossover as shown in the post below: SELL once there is a golden crossover as shown in the post below: SOUNDS very simple and it is indeed but works well only if the day is trending...simple price action or anchored vwap strategy. Let's look into the STOPLOSS and TARGET: STOPLOSS: Place stoploss BELOW EMA 18 TRAILING STOPLOSS: EMA 4,EMA 9, EMA 18 acts as a good support...Place the trailing stoploss below any of them depending on your setup...(EMA 18 is preferred) TARGET: This strategy does not provide and fixed target...Keep trading until the trailing stoploss is hit. (Captures almost entire trend on a trending day...that's why it is best for trending days) EXAMPLES: SELL As you can see on the chart how beautifully EMA 4/9/18 are respected by the market on a trending day...and 250 points of move was captured in NIFTY 50. BUY Similarly 230+ points were captured and the market again respected these moving averages FALSE SIGNAL: This strategy is not a holy grail...it will give many false signals in a non trending day...so using this strategy along with price action will make it a lot more accurate. DO KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY STRATEGY WHEN FOLLOWED WITH PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING WILL ONLY GIVE PROFITS IN THE LONG RUN... If you have any doubts in this strategy do let me know in the comments...would love to answer them asap FOLLOW ME for more such content ahead...Till then, HAPPY TRADING :)
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by keshevdugar
29
Chart made by the market particularly for Investors !The above weekly chart is of Infosys Ltd. Here the stock price moves beautifully just in between the parallel channel, making higher highs and higher lows. If one successfully manages to find the chart as above, he can simply buy at the lower channel trendline and sell at the upper channel trendline. Yes, everything looks wow and amazing after the chart formation. As I do not have access to post chart image in my post here, I have tried my best to show the chart formation from Mar'20 till May'21, which you can see on the main chart, where the stock price moves in between the upper and lower channel trendline. After identifying the channel pattern, if one had taken the position even on May'21, where the price touched and later bounced from lower trendline, would have made a good 28% in 3 months (Aug'21), where price touched the upper trendline. Hope the above chart was useful with the information provided. Happy Investing !
NSE:INFYEducation
by AK1808
1
Why Do We Fall?Who Do We Fall? So We Can Learn To Pick Ourselves Up! - Thomas Wayne Hey, In this post I am not going to predict the direction of the market. Cause it is tough to be 100% perfect in whatever it may be. It's better to talk about probability of the direction in which nifty is headed. And is the Covid new strain the reason for the fall? Maybe, But I believe Nifty is intended to full despite the new strain. So from the chart I believe that nifty has changed its trend from a more inclined channel to a less inclined channel. (Which means still in an uptrend, Though there may be a 6% fall) Nifty has support at 15,900, where I believe the 200 Day MA will also coincide. Previously It acted as key support many times. There is also a possibility of trend reversal, (Less probable) But for that nifty has to raise more than 2.5% in the next trading day i.e, Monday. Happy Trading!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by SubramanianThangaraj
Awesome OscillatorHere I was just trying to decode the pattern of this indicator called Awesome Indicator. In the above chart, I have used Awesome Indicator to gauge the market’s direction in coming days, weeks. As of now, yes it shows negative sentiment going ahead. As we all know market is supreme, regardless our assumptions, calculations etc. Here, we can see two types of formation in this indicator in downside market. 1-2-3-4 : Linear formation 1 - 1227 points fall (11% fall from previous high) 2 - 1160 points fall (11.5% fall from previous high) 3 - 1281 points fall (8.5% fall from previous high) 4 - 388 points fall (2% fall from previous high) When there is linear pattern formation, we can see either market tends to consolidate (4) or move downward with zig-zag (1,3), where the correction/retracement was by 8-12% (1,2,3). a-b-c : Curve type or semi-circular. a – 1747 points fall (15% fall from previous high) b – 4919 points fall (40% fall from previous high) c – 1619 points fall * (9% fall from previous high) – till present date But when there is curve or semi-circular pattern, we can see market has moved downward very aggressively, where the the retracement/correction has been made by 15% (a) and more (b). Now, the indicator has formed the curve or semi-circular pattern (c), where the market has corrected by around 9% from its high. Going forward, market seems to give some more correction. But till what levels?? Market is once again giving a wonderful opportunity for investors. One should sit in cash and start accumulating quality stocks going ahead, with long term investment perspective. The anticipated fall may or may not come, as again reiterating Mr. Market is supreme. Let me know your thoughts. Happy weekend and happy investing (though after some more time).
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by AK1808